Final Rankings Projection & Potential NCAA Seeding

[TopDawg]

Here is what I came up with for the final rankings which won't actually be released until Thursday which is 2 days after the NCAA pairings are announced. We'll see if the NCAA follows the rankings or not.

1 USC 77.74
2 Oklahoma 75.96
3 Ohio State 75.84
4 Virginia 75.10
5 Baylor 72.72
6 UCLA 72.12
7 North Carolina 59.68
8 Georgia 58.13
9 Texas A&M 57.93
10 Texas 57.19
11 Duke 54.88
12 Illinois 54.04
13 Kentucky 52.49
14 Notre Dame 52.22
15 Florida 47.97
16 Columbia 37.60

If the NCAA follows the rankings the potential Round of 16 pairings would be.

#1 USC vs. #16 Columbia
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Texas A&M
#5 Baylor vs. #12 Illinois
#4 Virginia vs. #13 Kentucky
#6 UCLA vs. #11 Duke
#3 Ohio State vs. #14 Notre Dame
#7 North Carolina vs. #10 Texas
#2 Oklahoma vs. #15 Florida

Last year the NCAA did not follow the pairings but that could have been because there were 8 SEC teams in the top 16 and if they had followed them 6 could have faced each other in the round of 16. Here were the changes they made last year.

Georgia was ranked 2nd but seeded 3rd
Virginia was ranked 3rd but seeded 2nd
Tennessee was ranked 6th but seeded 7th
Ole Miss was ranked 7th but seeded 6th
Texas A&M was ranked 11th but seeded 12th
Pepperdine was ranked 12th but seeded 11th


Had Oklahoma beaten Baylor this is how they would have finished so as you can see that match flipped several teams around.

1 Oklahoma 80.00
2 USC 76.88
3 Ohio State 75.84
4 Virginia 75.10
5 UCLA 72.97
6 Baylor 67.33
7 North Carolina 59.68
8 Texas 58.00
9 Texas A&M 57.93
10 Georgia 57.76
11 Duke 54.88
12 Illinois 54.04
13 Notre Dame 52.22
14 Kentucky 52.14
15 Florida 47.97
16 Columbia 37.60

#1 Oklahoma vs. #16 Columbia
#8 Texas vs #9 Texas A&M
#5 UCLA vs. #12 Illinois
#4 Virginia vs. #13 Notre Dame
#6 Baylor vs. #11 Duke
#3 Ohio State vs. #14 Kentucky
#7 North Carolina vs. #10 Georgia
#2 USC vs. #15 Florida

 

[Vicious Vik]

you think they might flop A&M and Texas or UNC and Georgia to avoid a Georgia vs A&M rematch?

 

[Nostradamus]

Cool. where is the Cardinal getting in there somewhere ?

and where is the Women's bracket ??

 

[TopDawg]

Odd that the #1 and #2 teams didn't win their conference. Have to wonder if the NCAA will make some adjustments based on that.

 

[Clemson_tennis]

Is this the 1st or 2nd running of the rankings?

 

[TopDawg]

you think they might flop A&M and Texas or UNC and Georgia to avoid a Georgia vs A&M rematch?

They could hard to tell with them on seeding.

 

[Clemson_tennis]

Odd that the #1 and #2 teams didn't win their conference. Have to wonder if the NCAA will make some adjustments based on that.

Nor did they win the indoor title.

 

[Nostradamus]

Odd that the #1 and #2 teams didn't win their conference. Have to wonder if the NCAA will make some adjustments based on that.

that would not be fair. NCAA must abide by the rankings. who do they think they are ,,,,, Wimbledon ?

 

[TopDawg]

Is this the 1st or 2nd running of the rankings?

What I listed above was the 2nd running. On the 1st go around it was Ohio State 1, UCLA 2, Oklahoma 3, USC 4, Virginia 5, Baylor 6, UNC 7, Texas 8, A&M 9, Georgia 10. USC and Baylor got the benefit of those extra points for UCLA coming up to 2.

 

[TopDawg]

I'll look at the rest of the rankings from 17 to 50 later this evening.

 

[Nostradamus]

I'll look at the rest of the rankings from 17 to 50 later this evening.

and Women too. I like to know what your thoughts are for Cardinal to repeat as champion. and if the Northwestern wildcats have outside chance of winning as well. they won a insane close match for big 10 title.

http://www.nusports.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/042714aaa.html#

 

[Clemson_tennis]

The best day of the year is Tuesday

 

[Kirijax]

I'll look at the rest of the rankings from 17 to 50 later this evening.

This is becoming a highlight of my week. Despite the Canes noshow. Thanks TopDawg.

 

[Tennis player 43]

TD - Thanks so much for doing this. This will be the first time that when the rankings come out we will know exactly how much the NCAA played around with the seeds. I want to nominate you to be the first member of the "talk tennis" wall of fame.

 

[TopDawg]

Here is 17-55. If Alabama gets in then the final at-large would go to Auburn. If Alabama doesn't get in due to the losing record then Oregon gets the final spot.

17 Mississippi State 36.90
18 Vanderbilt 36.14
19 California 35.70
20 Tennessee 35.43
21 Clemson 34.94
22 Memphis 34.03
23 South Florida - Auto Bid 31.41
24 Penn State 31.06
25 Boise State - Auto Bid 29.84
26 NC State 29.45
27 South Carolina 28.62
28 Oklahoma State 27.86
29 Northwestern 27.16
30 Stanford* 26.84
31 Harvard 26.55
32 Wake Forest 25.88
33 Florida State 25.88
34 Louisville* 24.50
35 Alabama* 24.37
36 Virginia Tech* 24.00
37 Michigan* 23.43
38 Purdue* 22.17
39 Ole Miss* 22.13
40 Texas Tech* 21.79
41 Auburn* 21.58
42 San Diego* - Auto Bid 21.41
43 Drake* - Auto Bid 21.09
44 Oregon* 20.50
45 Tulsa - Auto Bid 20.39
46 LSU* 18.95
47 Dartmouth* 18.52
48 UNC Wilmington* - Auto Bid 16.30
49 TCU* 15.69
50 George Washington* - Auto Bid 14.17
51 VCU* 14.11
52 Elon* - Auto Bid 14.09
53 Pepperdine* 13.49
54 Miami FL* 13.36
55 Minnesota* 12.97

 

[TopDawg]

Here was a quote from Bama's coach after the loss in the SEC Tournament.

"It was a tough match today as the Gamecocks were more solid on a few courts, and the doubles point proved to be very big," said Alabama head coach George Husack. "I'm very proud of this team, and the effort they put in all season. Their growth doesn't necessarily get reflected in the win column, but we accomplished a lot. We competed our tails off, and I am excited for the direction this program is headed."

I'm thinking if they were in the running for an at-large he would have said well we're looking forward to getting back out there one more time during the NCAAs and we can still accomplish more or something like that. I guess we'll find out for sure on Tuesday.

 

[GatorChompz_Jill]

Alabama coach made a mistake or????

 

[Nostradamus]

which one of the seeds will Cardinal have to upset to get to the NCAA sweet 16 ?

 

[chris-swede]

Stanford will be put vs ucla or usc.

 

[chris-swede]

Ole miss is ranked too low. Theyve beaten 4 times a top20 team and worst loss was vs 47th Lsu. Stanfords ranking is also too low. Theyve only few losses the whole year.

 

[Nostradamus]

Ole miss is ranked too low. Theyve beaten 4 times a top20 team and worst loss was vs 47th Lsu. Stanfords ranking is also too low. Theyve only few losses the whole year.

Stanford will likely face Oklahoma. perfect chance for an upset and get to the final round and perhaps take the NCAA title.

 

[jaggy]

Stanford will likely face Oklahoma. perfect chance for an upset and get to the final round and perhaps take the NCAA title.

Will there be a webcam?

 

[SECFAN]

How much higher should Ole Miss be? I was thinking maybe 36 or 37, but not much higher. Doesn't really matter now though, they are a 3 seed. Wonder where they will go for first and second rounds and if they can do anything.

 

[TopDawg]

Ole miss is ranked too low. Theyve beaten 4 times a top20 team and worst loss was vs 47th Lsu. Stanfords ranking is also too low. Theyve only few losses the whole year.

3 of their top 9 wins were road wins at Jackson State so there is only so high you can go with those on the resume.

 

[TopDawg]

I could see Ole Miss ending up at Baylor and maybe seeing Northwestern in the 1st round.

 

[TopDawg]

I could see Stanford ending up at Ohio State and playing someone like Virginia Tech in the 1st round.

 

[collegetennisdude]

Who could you see going to georgia and a&m??

 

[Clemson_tennis]

Who could you see going to georgia and a&m??

To Georgia- USF or NC State
To A&M - Oklahoma State or Boise State


What I liked about last year was that they focused more on ranking than region and typically avoided conference matchips. I hated the conference matchup a in the tournament in the past.

 

[chris-swede]

i agree with u clemson.-tennis, they should look on regional and that nobody has to play each other from same conference in first 2 rounds

 

[Clemson_tennis]

The worst thing the selection committee ever did was send #14 Texas Tech to Oklahoma for regional. A team they had beaten 3 TIMES during the season. In previous seasons the ITA littered regionals with teams from the same conference. But looking over last year's they actually didn't do it anywhere which I hope they stick with again.

 

[chris-swede]

in the west there could be some problems
not many teams
but usc and ucla hosting
but thats enough
so no real problems
also can send teams like boise to baylor

 

[CvilleFan]

What I listed above was the 2nd running. On the 1st go around it was Ohio State 1, UCLA 2, Oklahoma 3, USC 4, Virginia 5, Baylor 6, UNC 7, Texas 8, A&M 9, Georgia 10. USC and Baylor got the benefit of those extra points for UCLA coming up to 2.

I have always followed these boards, but never posted. I have run the numbers every week the last few years too, and always like to see if we match up (which we normally do). On my first run, I had Oklahoma at 2 and UCLA at 3. It only changes a few things on the second run (for teams that beat one or the other, since the loss points are the same), but i caused a few changes on the second run for the top 4.

 

[bluetrain4]

i agree with u clemson.-tennis, they should look on regional and that nobody has to play each other from same conference in first 2 rounds

I agree to an extent, but not fully. I don't see why teams should magically get to avoid conference opponents if the rankings and venue make it the practical thing to do. I mean, if you have similarly situated teams, one a conference foe and one that isn't, then, yes, pick the non-conference matchup. But, if unnecessary rigging is needed, I don't see the point.

 

[Clemson_tennis]

I agree to an extent, but not fully. I don't see why teams should magically get to avoid conference opponents if the rankings and venue make it the practical thing to do. I mean, if you have similarly situated teams, one a conference foe and one that isn't, then, yes, pick the non-conference matchup. But, if unnecessary rigging is needed, I don't see the point.

Yes I agree. For instance Tennessee,Miss State or Vanderbilt will probably have to be sent to Florida or Kentucky this time. But I do think ranking shoukd be more important than region. Wake Forest is #32, so they should have to be shipped somewhere far as opposed to getting a big break and being sent to Duke as opposed to USC for the sake of regionality.

 

[TopDawg]

I have always followed these boards, but never posted. I have run the numbers every week the last few years too, and always like to see if we match up (which we normally do). On my first run, I had Oklahoma at 2 and UCLA at 3. It only changes a few things on the second run (for teams that beat one or the other, since the loss points are the same), but i caused a few changes on the second run for the top 4.

You're right I just went back and looked it over and I realized I had the wrong point totals for OU's win over Texas A&M. I was off by 7 points which would move them to 2 at 75.94 and UCLA to 3 with 75.85. Not sure how I missed that. Let me see what the does to the 2nd run.

 

[TopDawg]

but i caused a few changes on the second run for the top 4.

I still get the same top 6 with the point totals slightly tighter.

1 USC 76.88
2 Oklahoma 75.96
3 Ohio State 75.84
4 Virginia 75.10
5 Baylor 72.67
6 UCLA 72.54

What #s did you show for the 2nd run?

 

[CvilleFan]

Yes I agree. For instance Tennessee,Miss State or Vanderbilt will probably have to be sent to Florida or Kentucky this time. But I do think ranking shoukd be more important than region. Wake Forest is #32, so they should have to be shipped somewhere far as opposed to getting a big break and being sent to Duke as opposed to USC for the sake of regionality.

The rules state there cannot be any first or second round conference matchups, so all those SEC teams in the 17-32 range have to be sent to non-SEC hosts.

 

[Clemson_tennis]

The rules state there cannot be any first or second round conference matchups, so all those SEC teams in the 17-32 range have to be sent to non-SEC hosts.

That must be a new rule as of last year then. I'll tweak my bracket then.

 

[CvilleFan]

I still get the same top 6 with the point totals slightly tighter.

1 USC 76.88
2 Oklahoma 75.96
3 Ohio State 75.84
4 Virginia 75.10
5 Baylor 72.67
6 UCLA 72.54

What #s did you show for the 2nd run?

I caught an error on my second run of Ohio State. All the other numbers match up now. It made a slight gap between 4 and 5.

 

[CvilleFan]

That must be a new rule as of last year then. I'll tweak my bracket then.

I think its the third year of it.

 

[TopDawg]

That must be a new rule as of last year then. I'll tweak my bracket then.

Here is the manual under Section 2.5 it does say ● The committee will also separate first- and second-round conference opponents when assigning teams to sites. The rule was passed after the 2010 season.

 

[Clemson_tennis]

One person committee bracket. I thought about region, conference, if the teams had met in the regular season. The bracket could look something like this:


1 USC
Wake Forest
Michigan
Cal Poly

16 Columbia
Miss State
George Washington
St. John's

8 Georgia
NC State
Texas Tech
Alcorn State

9 Texas A&M
Oklahoma State
Drake
Idaho

4 Virginia
Northwestern
Louisville
Bryant

13 Kentucky
Clemson
Oregon
Jacksonville State

5 Baylor
Penn State
Virginia Tech
Texas A&M-CC

12 Illinois
Cal
UL-Lafeyette
Denver


--


2 Oklahoma
Boise State
Ole Miss
Montana

15 Florida
USF
Tulsa
ETSU

7 North Carolina
South Carolina
Purdue
SC State

10 Texas
Memphis
Auburn
Army

3 Ohio State
Stanford
Florida State
Wisconsin-Green Bay

14 Notre Dame
Vanderbilt
UNC-Wilmington
Ball State

6 UCLA
Harvard
San Diego
Marist

11 Duke
Tennessee
Elon
Winthrop


some teams can be moved around here and there. What changes would you guys make?

 

[TopDawg]

One person committee bracket. I thought about region, conference, if the teams had met in the regular season. The bracket could look something like this:

some teams can be moved around here and there. What changes would you guys make?

Here is what I came up with earlier - looks like we had several the same. I tried to do them by ranking as well and have the strongest 2 play the weakest 1 and so forth while avoiding conference match ups. I just tried to put the 4 seeds as close to home as possible.

 

[mikej]

Here is what I came up with earlier - looks like we had several the same. I tried to do them by ranking as well and have the strongest 2 play the weakest 1 and so forth while avoiding conference match ups. I just tried to put the 4 seeds as close to home as possible.

would love to see duke play someone different than the ones they have always gone out to recently in NCAAs (UVA, UCLA, UGA) - if they make it to the final 16, of course - even if it's a tough team like Baylor or Ohio St - but a repeat may be unavoidable

 

[Clemson_tennis]

so you have ETSU as the 3 over ULL even though ULL is ranked 62? Or is ETSU going to jump them?

 

[Hmmmmm]

clemson tennis: wouldn't that be fun for duke fans, two teams that they lost to in their regional.

 

[Kirijax]

Here is what I came up with earlier - looks like we had several the same. I tried to do them by ranking as well and have the strongest 2 play the weakest 1 and so forth while avoiding conference match ups. I just tried to put the 4 seeds as close to home as possible.

Very easy to read! Nice job! No Miami though....lol

 

[Hmmmmm]

I hope that the committee shakes up the first six. With Virginia playing the way they are now, I can't believe they don't deserve a second seed. Leave USC at one, UCLA is three, Ohio State four, Oklahoma five and Baylor six.

 

[Clemson_tennis]

I have a feeling they will do something ridiculous. At least one thing will be wacky in the bracket.

 

[mikej]

I have a feeling they will do something ridiculous. At least one thing will be wacky in the bracket.

honestly they'll probably just copy one of your brackets, maybe make a change or two to act like they didn't

there's not enough money in college tennis to pay any committee anything worthwhile to agonize over these decisions - i'm sure they'd rather submit yours and call it a day