Forecasting Nadal's clay season

How many of the big clay tournaments will Nadal win this year?

  • Total voters
    48
akv89

akv89

Hall of Fame
It has become a little easy to forget that Nadal has had a terrific season thus far on hard courts. If prior seasons are any indication, when Nadal is competitive on hard courts, he is usually dominant on clay. I imagine he will try and play all of the clay court masters and the French open. If Federer is skipping much of the clay season, I think his biggest competition would be a healthy Djokovic and Wawrinka. How many of the big clay tournaments do you see Nadal winning this year?

Based on his play so far, I would consider him the favorite for the French Open. I would guess he wins 1 masters title along with the French.
 
The problem is, nowadays by the time he has played enough to feel confident, he is too tired to actually play at his best physically. I don't know if he will win all that much, especially when Djokovic and Murray are fresh and rested.
 
Zebrev said:
The problem is, nowadays by the time he has played enough to feel confident, he is too tired to actually play at his best physically. I don't know if he will win all that much, especially when Djokovic and Murray are fresh and rested.
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I agree, which is why I think he will lose at a couple of the masters tournaments. However, even when tired, I can see Nadal beating anyone on clay with the exception of a well-rested Djokovic these days.
 
He keeps knocking on the door at pretty much everything he has entered this year. Success should hopefully be around the corner for him.
 
I think Nadal will play full clay season because he knows this is his favorite moment of the year. He is likely to play all of Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and then RG. This will be taxing on his 30 yo body, IMHO, and as the clay season progresses, he'll struggle more but he won't be able to pull off the tournament because he likes clay events. This will present him a dilemma. Should he skip one event to have more in reserve for later stage, especially RG? I think he won't skip any and that will actually harm his chances of winning another FO. I think he'll win one or two of M1000s, but if he plays full clay schedule, he won't be able to win RG. If he wants 10th RG title more than anything, he will have to skip wither Barcelona or Madrid, at least.
 
His only losses this year were to Querry and Raonic (aside from fed). They are no threats on clay whereas nadal isnt as good on hard. I expect him to dominate the season if fed does skip them all
 
chjtennis said:
I think Nadal will play full clay season because he knows this is his favorite moment of the year. He is likely to play all of Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and then RG. This will be taxing on his 30 yo body, IMHO, and as the clay season progresses, he'll struggle more but he won't be able to pull off the tournament because he likes clay events. This will present him a dilemma. Should he skip one event to have more in reserve for later stage, especially RG? I think he won't skip any and that will actually harm his chances of winning another FO. I think he'll win one or two of M1000s, but if he plays full clay schedule, he won't be able to win RG. If he wants 10th RG title more than anything, he will have to skip wither Barcelona or Madrid, at least.
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I can't remember the last time Nadal skipped a clay masters event. I agree that he would be better off skipping Barcelona or Madrid to improve his chances at RG, especially given that Djokovic, Murray, and Federer will all have taken a rest at some point during this year. If Nadal manages to pull it off with a full schedule, he would be in the running for the #1 ranking and the idea of a year with everyone in the big 4 in the hunt for #1 sounds very exciting.
 
LOL, when has Murray been an obstacle for Nadal on clay when Nadal is playing very well like he is now. Only competition is Djoko in the clay Master's and he's no guarantee. Nadal should clean up this clay season. Probably will win MC, Rome and Madrid. FO is not such a sure thing.
 
I do wonder how Rafa's knee's are holding up, I bet he is glad to be moving to the clay courts for a few months.
IMO it only a matter of time before the knee tendonitis makes its presence felt again.....
 
I don't think Nadal's current level good enough to win a Slam, although he has improved compared to 2015-16. He has reinvent his game like Federer did to have any hope. Otherwise Masters title is the best he can do.
 
Should skip one of Barcelona/Madrid. He is almost 31 and isn't a spring chicken anymore. Scheduling properly will be one of the keys to success in his 30's which Nadal isn't good at unfortunately. Last year he gave it all in clay masters and got himself injured at RG....He needs rest before RG. Maybe skip Rome?
 
6-3 6-0 said:
Should skip one of Barcelona/Madrid. He is almost 31 and isn't a spring chicken anymore. Scheduling properly will be one of the keys to success in his 30's which Nadal isn't good at unfortunately. Last year he gave it all in clay masters and got himself injured at RG....He needs rest before RG. Maybe skip Rome?
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It's not only scheduling it's reducing practice which he doesn't either, look if he is not playing Madrid but practicing 2-3 hours everyday as intense as he can, he might as well just play Madrid. My hope is that he plays MC and Barca with all he got, rests for a few days, skips Madrid and start practicing to be in good but not amazing form in Rome so he can peak at RG. But I think his level right now is more than enough to beat Andy and this Nole and there is a good chance he goes through RG without facing a GOATing opponent, maybe only needing to raise his level for SF-F
 
Monte Carlo - F loss to Verdasco / Granollers
Barcelona - SF loss to Ferrer / Almagro
Madrid - QF loss to Lopez (either one)
Rome - SF loss to Bautista Agut / Ramos Vinolas
RG - F loss to Carreno Busta OR Federer if he shows up
 
Last edited:
akv89 said:
Based on his play so far, I would consider him the favorite for the French Open. I would guess he wins 1 masters title along with the French.
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What is so stunning about his play so far?
No titles, totally destroyed by Federer twice in a row after a heartbreaking AO loss.
I say, let's see how he performs half way through the clay season.
 
dr325i said:
What is so stunning about his play so far?
No titles, totally destroyed by Federer twice in a row after a heartbreaking AO loss.
I say, let's see how he performs half way through the clay season.
Click to expand...

He is the big favorite for the bookies, he isn't at a high level but probably the most consistent one on clay, don't think an amazing effort is needed to win RG, just needs to be solid and raise his level match by match
 
akv89 said:
It has become a little easy to forget that Nadal has had a terrific season thus far on hard courts. If prior seasons are any indication, when Nadal is competitive on hard courts, he is usually dominant on clay. I imagine he will try and play all of the clay court masters and the French open. If Federer is skipping much of the clay season, I think his biggest competition would be a healthy Djokovic and Wawrinka. How many of the big clay tournaments do you see Nadal winning this year?

Based on his play so far, I would consider him the favorite for the French Open. I would guess he wins 1 masters title along with the French.
Click to expand...

I voted three, including the FO, which I too consider him to be TOP DOG. Its gonna be one hell of a clay season with Nadal wanting to back up his good year start with TITLES, Djoko and Murray wanting to get back on track and Stan the Man unleashing that 1hbh...

I think Nadal will grow on confidence on clay, lets remember he was very very close to being AO 17 champion.

I dont thin Fed, otoh, will do too great, but thst will be bc he'll wanna focus on the late part of the year om fast courts.
 
dr325i said:
What is so stunning about his play so far?
No titles, totally destroyed by Federer twice in a row after a heartbreaking AO loss.
I say, let's see how he performs half way through the clay season.
Click to expand...
He has been the second best player so far this year and he seems to be moving better than he has been the last couple years. Unless his tendonitis flares up, I expect that he will be even better on clay as he usually is.
 
disclaimer: I am not a Nadal fan but I don't think he is favorite to win RG. If Warinka, Djokovic and Murray are healthy and get in some warm up tournaments, I think all of them can present a problem for Nadal. Also, Theim is a legit threat on clay. I could even see Zverev having a Soderling type in the zone day and being an issue for any of the top guys - Zverev serve and ground game is good enough to play well even on clay. I think Nadal loses before the SF at RG. His movement is not as good as it was and Nadal is missing much more off the ground. He also is leaving more short balls. He has yet to show the super consistency he had in his prime where his movement and depth presented an impenetrable wall on clay.
 
Rafa the King said:
It's not only scheduling it's reducing practice which he doesn't either, look if he is not playing Madrid but practicing 2-3 hours everyday as intense as he can, he might as well just play Madrid. My hope is that he plays MC and Barca with all he got, rests for a few days, skips Madrid and start practicing to be in good but not amazing form in Rome so he can peak at RG. But I think his level right now is more than enough to beat Andy and this Nole and there is a good chance he goes through RG without facing a GOATing opponent, maybe only needing to raise his level for SF-F
Click to expand...
I disagree with you there. Playing back to back weeks on a surface that requires so much running/defense might not be good for even the clay GOAT at his age. Like I said he isn't in his 20's anymore. If he wins MC, I see very little reason to play Barcelona. Madrid is his home tournament but Rome is way more like RG so that's upto him at that. If he play both (like last year) he is setting himself up for another possible exhaustion and he can't afford it at RG against the likes of Djokovic/Wawrinka and to a smaller extent Murray assuming they will be injury free. They can grind him down especially Djokovic who is in Rafa's head and straight setted him at RG before. Rafa's FH has to improve by then.
 
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