French Open final 2019, Novak vs Roger

Who would win ?


  • Total voters
    65

OhYes

Hall of Fame
#1
Nadal is major contender, somehow he was seen before AO final against Novak as favorite to win it too, but it didn't happen. Slim chances for that, but let make this scenario:
Federer and Djokovic are about to meet in the final, they both playing solid - good enough to jump over all obstacles, but no jaw dropping form and certainly no overexhausting themselves with 5 hour 5 Sets matches.
Who do you think would have more jitters, who needs it more, who could explode and who could implode in that final, which fanbase would have bigger meltdown ?
 

OhYes

Hall of Fame
#6
In my view, Federer is more likely to defeat Djokovic at RG than Djokovic is of defeating Nadal at RG.
That means Djokovic Would be favorite ? I didn't say Nadal would lose from Djokovic, Nadal could get beaten let say Wawrinka and Fed to take Wawrinka out.
 
#12
Djokr and it's not even close. As for Rafa that is questionable too. We'll have wait and see. Djokovic did manage to def. Rafa at RG. I don't really care how many attempts. He DID it. Period.
 

Rosstour

Professional
#16
In my view, Federer is more likely to defeat Djokovic at RG than Djokovic is of defeating Nadal at RG.
lol, no

I don't mean to sound dismissive but we haven't seen anything recently to support that.

Rafa's last Slam win v Djoker was RG14. Last win over Federer period was AO14. Notice a pattern?

Since then, Djok beat him at RG15, W18, AO19. Fed beat him at AO17, down 3-1 in the 5th. So that makes Rafa 0-4 vs Djok/Fed since RG14...that's five years without beating those guys at a Slam at all.

Ironically the closest match w/Djoker was at Wimbledon, and I know this sounds nuts but Rafa's best chance now against Djokovic is on grass. His excellent slice BH and best-on-tour touch around the net are his greatest assets now, as his legs and feet crumble.

Nadal knows that he's at Djoker's mercy on any kind of slow court.

I also think that Federer showing up to face Djokovic at RG would cause some nerves in Novak's camp. No one has seen Fed on clay in 3 years, and if he does blitz through to a QF or SF he will have everyone a bit nervous.
 
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#24
37 year old who hasn't played RG in 4 years has better odds of beating the world #1 than said #1 and holder of 3 majors has of beating the same guy he just thrashed at the last major final.

Makes sense to me!
Djokovic has won the last 3 Grand Slams outside clay. Djokovic "trashed" Nadal at the AO, which is even faster than WB nowadays and doesn't ressemble clay at all. Don't know why do you change the topic and talk about Djokovic's results outside clay when we are talking about RG.

1. Nadal has won 11 RG, Djokovic only 1.
2. Nadal leads the H2H over Djokovic 6-1 at RG.
3. Nadal has won the last 2 RG in a row.
4. Federer is 1-1 against Djokovic at RG.

Thus, it logically follows that Federer is more likely to defeat Djokovic at RG than Djokovic is of defeating Nadal at RG.
 
#25
Djokovic has won the last 3 Grand Slams outside clay. Djokovic "trashed" Nadal at the AO, which is even faster than WB nowadays and doesn't ressemble clay at all. Don't know why do you change the topic and talk about Djokovic's results outside clay when we are talking about RG.

1. Nadal has won 11 RG, Djokovic only 1.
2. Nadal leads the H2H over Djokovic 6-1 at RG.
3. Nadal has won the last 2 RG in a row.
4. Federer is 1-1 against Djokovic at RG.

Thus, it logically follows that Federer is more likely to defeat Djokovic at RG than Djokovic is of defeating Nadal at RG.
You can't just look at clay results in a vacuum. The season results don't get wiped away in April to start fresh. What a player did on another surface a few months ago is far more relevant to his current odds than what he did on a particular court a decade ago.

But, if you do only care about RG context:

Roger hasn't beaten Novak at RG in 8 years. Novak hasn't beaten Rafa at RG in 4 years.

Roger hasn't won the tournament in 10 years. Novak hasn't won it in 3.
 
#27
Djokovic has won the last 3 Grand Slams outside clay. Djokovic "trashed" Nadal at the AO, which is even faster than WB nowadays and doesn't ressemble clay at all. Don't know why do you change the topic and talk about Djokovic's results outside clay when we are talking about RG.

1. Nadal has won 11 RG, Djokovic only 1.
2. Nadal leads the H2H over Djokovic 6-1 at RG.
3. Nadal has won the last 2 RG in a row.
4. Federer is 1-1 against Djokovic at RG.

Thus, it logically follows that Federer is more likely to defeat Djokovic at RG than Djokovic is of defeating Nadal at RG.
I agree that the chances of Federer beating Djokovic at RG would be higher than the chance of Djokovic beating Nadal at RG if they were all equally close to their best. Indeed, if they were all equally close to their best, you could argue that it would be a tossup between Federer and Djokovic at RG - although I would still say that Djokovic is greater overall, as he would have slightly more chance of beating Nadal than Federer would. And if they were all equally close to their best, then Nadal would be overwhelming favorite against any of them. He likely is overwhelming favorite against any of them this year, although we'll find out more this week about whether he is fully fit.

But most of your points apply to their whole careers. #3 is the exception, as it does apply to recent form. And in 2019, it might well be that Djokovic has more chance against Nadal than Federer does against Djokovic. It's hard to know, given that Federer hasn't played on clay in several years, and it could be that he just can't play on it anymore. We will find out soon enough. If Federer is well past his best on clay, then it could be that he has even less chance against Djokovic than Djokovic does against Nadal.
 
#28
Djokovic has won the last 3 Grand Slams outside clay. Djokovic "trashed" Nadal at the AO, which is even faster than WB nowadays and doesn't ressemble clay at all. Don't know why do you change the topic and talk about Djokovic's results outside clay when we are talking about RG.

1. Nadal has won 11 RG, Djokovic only 1.
2. Nadal leads the H2H over Djokovic 6-1 at RG.
3. Nadal has won the last 2 RG in a row.
4. Federer is 1-1 against Djokovic at RG.

Thus, it logically follows that Federer is more likely to defeat Djokovic at RG than Djokovic is of defeating Nadal at RG.
All respect to you, but almost all you mentioned is far away past. Nobody know how thing will sort out, and we wont know much more even after Rome... RG is first price and all main players will try to peak on it... Lets see.


And yeah, Novak would trash Federer in RG final...
 
#30
All respect to you, but almost all you mentioned is far away past. Nobody know how thing will sort out, and we wont know much more even after Rome... RG is first price and all main players will try to peak on it... Lets see.


And yeah, Novak would trash Federer in RG final...
The fact that Nadal has won the last 2 RG is far away past? It isn't. Nadal has won 11 RG during his career and the fact that he has won the last 2 in a row means his dominance on clay is not something "far away past". Nadal leads Djokovic 6-1 at RG and it cannot be ignored with the claim that it was "far away past", as if all those victories don't mean that Nadal is a clear favorite over Djokovic.

Am I understimating Djokovic? Time will tell.
 
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#34
Djokovic has won the last 3 Grand Slams outside clay. Djokovic "trashed" Nadal at the AO, which is even faster than WB nowadays and doesn't ressemble clay at all. Don't know why do you change the topic and talk about Djokovic's results outside clay when we are talking about RG.

1. Nadal has won 11 RG, Djokovic only 1.
2. Nadal leads the H2H over Djokovic 6-1 at RG.
3. Nadal has won the last 2 RG in a row.
4. Federer is 1-1 against Djokovic at RG.

Thus, it logically follows that Federer is more likely to defeat Djokovic at RG than Djokovic is of defeating Nadal at RG.
Probability of Nole beating Nadal in final : 20%

Probability of Fed beating Nole in Final : 5%
 
#36
What do you guys think about this match?

Federer defeated Djokovic in Montecarlo 2014. Has Federer declined so much on clay since then?

I seem to recall Djokovic had some problems in that match. Wrist or something...

Either way, that's a long time ago. Fed hasn't even played on clay since 2016 and hasn't beaten Djokovic in quite a while, I don't think he can turn that around at Roland Garros of all places.

Would love to be proven wrong though. Just having those two guys in the final would be quite a sight to behold. And a big shame on the younger generations.
 
#39
The fact that Nadal has won the last 2 RG is far away past? It isn't. Nadal has won 11 RG during his career and the fact that he has won the last 2 in a row means his dominance on clay is not something "far away past". Nadal leads Djokovic 6-1 at RG and it cannot be ignored with the claim that it was "far away past", as if all those victories don't mean that Nadal is a clear favorite over Djokovic.

Am I understimating Djokovic? Time will tell.
Many things changed in the last year and this RG won't be near same as last ones... That is my opinion and I think you are really underestimating Djokovic and hype Nadal on clay...
 
#44
I seem to recall Djokovic had some problems in that match. Wrist or something...

Either way, that's a long time ago. Fed hasn't even played on clay since 2016 and hasn't beaten Djokovic in quite a while, I don't think he can turn that around at Roland Garros of all places.

Would love to be proven wrong though. Just having those two guys in the final would be quite a sight to behold. And a big shame on the younger generations.
Yeah, look at Djopkovic's arm, he has a big bandage on it. And actually looking at the HH, he stops playing after losing the 1st set and did his best to impersonate Kyrgios in his worst days...
And that was 5 years ago, the last year Federer played clay competitively was 2015, 4 years ago.
We'll see how things happen in Madrid, but don't expect much from Federer on clay imo.
 
#45
7th game at the BO5 on clay, you'd have to think that Djokovic would have more left in the tank than Fed and his almost 38 years of age. I hope I'm wrong, but either way I would be happy, as I am attending the tournament on the second Monday, and I would get to see both of them.
 
#49
And I just re-watched their 2011 RG semi last night too. The serve and backhand were something else that day. I would be truly flabbergasted if Fed could play like that again on clay. I would also be surprised if Noel ever lets Fred get a whiff like that again during a slam match either.
 
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