From 2003 to 2023, which years were weak era and strong era?

As per usual the least charitable reading is the one I'm given. He asked was the game changing a factor? I said yes but ofc health mattered too. You read that as health mattered less and then lampoon me for it because that's what you want me to be saying.
You wrote this:
Has no one ever wondered why literally every 00s player completely fell off the map in the 2010s? It's because they were trying to play iso ball in the pace and space era. And the guys who were pioneers adapted and survived and everyone else fell by the wayside.
"It's because..." seems to imply that the factor you're describing is either the biggest one or the only one. That's how that phrasing works in English. And then it was only after this, when another poster asked you about injuries, that you added:
Health mattered too ofc but yes. The game changed out from under him. He built his game counter to a dying and soon to be outdated brand of tennis of course that was going to hurt him. How many guys do you see play like Hewitt nowadays? How many top 50 players with a FH anywhere near as flat? Maybe 3 are close? How many guys with his physical gifts especially are standing on top of the baseline trying to time up balls and attack that way? 0.
The second post reads like an afterthought considering how firm and conclusive the first one was. If you believe both were factors, that would have been a nice thing to point out in post #1.
 
You wrote this:

"It's because..." seems to imply that the factor you're describing is either the biggest one or the only one. That's how that phrasing works. And then it was only after this, when another poster asked you about injuries, that you added:

The second post reads like an afterthought considering how firm and conclusive the first one was. If you believe both were factors, that would have been a nice thing to point out in post #1.
The 1st post wasn't related to the 2nd. The 1st is a general statement about a generation or two of players. The 2nd is a response to a specific question about Hewitt that was asked to me and I answered which is what you were also talking about. Again you chose to read me that way even though it's the less plausible interpretation of what I said that's on you not me.
 
Yes Roddick is best server of the group but as far as Aynaoui goes his disguise placement and variety isn't better than Novak's. Use that as an argument over Thiem's power and spin fine but what about Novak?

It actually looks like Roddick is wearing ankle weights to me. His movements look incredibly slow and heavy to me viewing it through a modern lens. I was actually shocked at how slow he looked I didn't think it would be that drastic. Honestly could be he was just slow in this match for whatever reason maybe he turned an ankle or something because it was worse than I thought it would be even for a 20 year old match. I agree Thiem's a good but not great athlete but he also has the advantage of far superior technique.

Yeah it's way way bigger. The movement/bad positioning difference is even more drastic than the FH difference so I'm not surprised at more FH winners. Plus El Aynaoui gives up more attackable balls from the baseline than any player in the current top 100. You hit it to the Bh side of the court and you're basically guaranteed a loopy slice. His BH is like Steve Johnson's but with a terrible slice lol.

As I've already explained I think top players "optimized" too much and it made them worse. That on top of just not being as talented to begin with allowed Djokovic/Nadal to win this long without getting better in absolute terms. Djokovic prolly peaked in 16 and Nadal is harder to pin down due to health and general fluctuations. I just think that Novak/Nadal have made enough improvements that they didn't drop much at all from their best (Nadal's body started failing him regularly post Covid and Djokovic's prolly will soon) and no one came has come along better than that. And Djokovic and Nadal (and Federer) were so good and that their top level was so high that small decreases from that still better than anyone else.

But yeah to me in absolute terms give me 19/20 Nadal over 05/06 Nadal comfortably which I'm sure will be outrageous to you.
I'm not going to pretend like I've got a digital protractor that can measure the angles of all their serves, Aynaoui has a couple of inches on Djokovic and from my recollection I felt like he was placing it a little better and mixing it up more - at the very least I can see from he TA charts that he used the body serve way more. In a five hour match 6% extra going in isn't insignificant either, especially when you're winning such a high proportion behind it.

His movements look incredibly slow? You must be trolling, sorry but there's no way he's actually slow by modern or any standards. This and you saying way way bigger forehands must just be gaslighting.

...and optimising too much and getting worse is oxymoronic, you can reach a point of diminishing returns but not outright getting worse - unless it's relative as you're just optimised for the wrong conditions, which isn't what you were saying. I think you're trying to be too intellectual with the way you analyse tennis and you have this grand macro view but it just reads as nonsense.

You're just dodging with the last bit as well, I asked when they were at their best - few people consider 2005/2006 Nadal to be at his zenith, is 2019/2020 Nadal better than say 2008 or 2010 Nadal? You think Djokovic peaked in 2016 fine, but I asked you about 2011 Djokovic versus now. You've fired a lot of shots, no hiding now. I've seen you say there's a big difference between even 2005 and 2009, so surely from 2008/2010 to 2019/2020/2021 should be a rather significant gap right? Or does tennis only evolve when it suits you.
 
The 1st post wasn't related to the 2nd. The 1st is a general statement about a generation or two of players. The 2nd is a response to a specific question about Hewitt which is what you were also talking about. Again you chose to read me that way even though it's the less plausible interpretation of what I said that's on you not me.
Considering the first post in isolation is actually an even less charitable reading of it because the statement it makes is just so patently absurd given the lack of mention of injury.
 
Ok wait I see what you mean here. That's two separate arguments that I've conflated into one. My bad.

But that first post is still... so far off the mark that I couldn't help it.
 
Not that easy to find, even the site I used to use didn't start tracking serve speeds until the FO 2003. Perhaps @abmk might be able to find it from old box scores. It's not just the speed, Hewitt a way better returner than Thiem for example couldn't break break Aynaoui because of his placement and the way he mixed it up - Aynoaui was hitting some really great angles throughout, mixing in body serves, flat ones up the tee etc...there was a lot of variety to his serving that you're not accounting for. I hope we can at least agree that Roddick is the best server of the group...

As far as movement goes, I feel the same way about you. There's no way you can watch both matches and think their movement isn't even close - Thiem was a good athlete but he was never an elite mover the caliber of the Big 3/4, Hewitt, Monfils etc...young Roddick was very quick and his footwork into his backhand corner is very good here. He's pulls off loads of great gets throughout the match. To say it's not close is just insane to me...

Likewise don't see how you can say they're hitting way way bigger off the forehand, like if you just said bigger, fine I guess but way way bigger? No way. Like even in the two points you so lovingly picked out there's no way Djokovic is hitting his forehand bigger than Roddick on average there. Of course it's a tiny sample but Roddick hit twice the number of forehand winners, longer match and worse defence sure (though also a slower court) but to do that with a way way smaller FH? No chance.

What year did Djokovic play his best tennis in absolute terms in your opinion? Likewise for Nadal? Because what I'm seeing is that you saying the absolute level of tennis is at it's highest, so if Djokovic is posting career best numbers in slams he must be at his best right? Like, how much of shot does 2023 Djokovic have against 2011 Djokovic in your opinion?

I have been searching for the AO 03 Roddick el ayanoui stats and so far not successful. Will look for some more time.
 
He said injury too
When pressed about Hewitt specifically sure, nevermind that his post on that don't pass the smell test like nearly anything else he says. Guys like Robredo and Haas were hanging around the top 20 in their 30's, Ferrer was top 5 in his 30's, Roddick hung around until 2010 when injuries got the best of him. The falling off of Fed's generation wasn't some gradual decline as tennis evolved it was a sudden drop from the top of the rankings into often journeyman status - that's not something that you'd mostly attribute to tennis progression unless you have an agenda.
 
Like no joke BVDZ is a top 3 mover on HCs in 2000 thats how much tennis movement has evolved

not sure who BVDZ is, but 2007-12 is like the peak of baseline tennis movement at top 10 level with nadal/djoko/fed/murray/davy/ferrer etc.
it'd be a joke to compare with the current 10 of tpas, medvedev, rublev, fritz, sinner, tiafoe, ruud etc.. Like the only one who that compares is Alcaraz.
current djokovic is clearly behind.
 
not sure who BVDZ is, but 2007-12 is like the peak of baseline tennis movement at top 10 level with nadal/djoko/fed/murray/davy/ferrer etc.
it'd be a joke to compare with the current 10 of tpas, medvedev, rublev, fritz, sinner, tiafoe, ruud etc.. Like the only one who that compares is Alcaraz.
current djokovic is clearly behind.
I think he means Botic Van De Zandschulp
 
Do you think Hewitt losing more post 2005 had anything to do with this same factor? As you are a fan.

Hewitt in 04/05 was adapting to the baseline generation from dealing vs allcourt play in 00-02. switched to poly, was hitting harder, serving a little better. More consistent in slams in 04/05. only losing to fed in 5/7 slams, 1 to peak safin and 1 to gaudio (RG 04). all eventual winners of those slams. 2 finals, 2 semis, 2 QFs among those.
given 05 was significantly better than 06 when hewitt fell from top 5 to a mere top 20 player, its solely due to the injuries.
 
I'm not going to pretend like I've got a digital protractor that can measure the angles of all their serves, Aynaoui has a couple of inches on Djokovic and from my recollection I felt like he was placing it a little better and mixing it up more - at the very least I can see from he TA charts that he used the body serve way more. In a five hour match 6% extra going in isn't insignificant either, especially when you're winning such a high proportion behind it.

His movements look incredibly slow? You must be trolling, sorry but there's no way he's actually slow by modern or any standards. This and you saying way way bigger forehands must just be gaslighting.

...and optimising too much and getting worse is oxymoronic, you can reach a point of diminishing returns but not outright getting worse - unless it's relative as you're just optimised for the wrong conditions, which isn't what you were saying. I think you're trying to be too intellectual with the way you analyse tennis and you have this grand macro view but it just reads as nonsense.

You're just dodging with the last bit as well, I asked when they were at their best - few people consider 2005/2006 Nadal to be at his zenith, is 2019/2020 Nadal better than say 2008 or 2010 Nadal? You think Djokovic peaked in 2016 fine, but I asked you about 2011 Djokovic versus now. You've fired a lot of shots, no hiding now. I've seen you say there's a big difference between even 2005 and 2009, so surely from 2008/2010 to 2019/2020/2021 should be a rather significant gap right? Or does tennis only evolve when it suits you.
Fair enough but the fact that the serving is even close between Djokovic and a bot should say quite a lot no?

Looking at the way he chases balls those steps don't look heavy and plodding to you compared to the 20 match? I just don't even know what to say honestly. I think he loses a race to both guys too but the tennis specific movements is where the gap really widens. Don't think I saw either guy slide and almost no open stance balls either. Recovery is slow af. Yeah the FH's are way bigger I wish we had the numbers for it because it's obvious.

Yeah that's why I put optimizing in quotations. I'm saying they took the principles too far. Like the Morey Rockets if you're a bball fan. And I think you're view is limited and archaic so here we are.

Well again as I already said I think in the early 00s we were in a place where the game was changing rapidly and by the end of the 2010s the progess was much slower. The 2023 Nuggets completely obliterate any team in the 00s but any top team from 2015 on could play with them because around 2015 is when the game got closeish to optimized strategically. The era of rapid improvement in tennis was over by the time Djo/Ned peaked and again top end talent of their calibre hasn't come in to push them out. Roddick/Hewitt level talents have come and have the advantages of the last 20 years of advances on their side. I'll take 11 Novak over current Novak because of physicality more than anything. We have the numbers and Djokovic hits harder/bigger off the FH and serve than he did back then though. Not sure about the BH journalists don't seem to focus on that but I'd imagine it's close. He also slices better moves forward better volleys better etc. I think he'd hang with his younger self before wearing down. So yeah as I already said I don't think the gap is big at all. Djokovic/Nadal's strokes/serves were at their best when they were old so if their bodies could hold up they would win.

You seem to think this is narrative peddling that helps Djokovic. I (the person advancing the argument) don't even view it that way. Mbappe isn't greater than Pele just because he would whoop his ass at soccer. You have to evaluate things in their context and you are the one refusing to do that even though doing so actually helps Federer. It actually suits you. Because relative to his era Federer was pretty damn good lol. I'm just not going to sit here and pretend that Roddick would actually beat Djokovic because that's absolute lunacy and you insist the conversation be on those terms instead of relative terms. I'm also not going to accept the argument that when Carlos peaks he peaked higher than Djokovic even though he would beat him (which is coming very soon) because it has to be evaluated on a relative basis. I could show you my arguments on other forums saying Bill Russell has the 2nd highest peak in NBA history even though Jokic would take him out behind the woodshed if they played each other.
 
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@The Guru

2011 Djokovic vs 2015 Djokovic 10 matches at each slam? Feel free to not answer but curious because you called the first half of 2016 the best version is absolute terms.
 
You guys are trying to sell the bill of goods that tennis is the exception to every other sport that unlike every other sport which is clearly measurably better (tennis is too btw) tennis somehow is magically worse than it was 20 years ago despite bigger athlete pool more money/financial incentive and again despite literally every piece of data we have on the sport saying otherwise and I'm the narrative peddler. This is complete clownery.
 
Anyone who thinks Ali beats Fury is a moron
Anyway in boxing the world P4P is used. Not as much tennis though.

That’s basically saying is you probably know the smaller fighter is greater but only loses because he is too small or something along those lines.
 
This is pure nostalgic cope going on in this forum, Ali was what, 215 pounds, is 6’2-6’3 if he’s lucky, Tyson is a legit 6’7-6’8 and can weigh in anywhere between 260-275. Fury is simply too big, too strong and too good for Ali. People bring up foreman, who was 6’3, 220 at best. But fury is nothing like foreman. I mean I don't know **** about boxing but that's about as easy a call as you could make.
 
Anyway in boxing the world P4P is used. Not as much tennis though.

That’s basically saying is you probably know the smaller fighter is greater but only loses because he is too small or something along those lines.
Same concept as era relative. Volk is a better fighter than Jamahal Hill but Jamahal Hill might actually kill Volk. Like literally.
 
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This is pure nostalgic cope going on in this forum, Ali was what, 215 pounds, is 6’2-6’3 if he’s lucky, Tyson is a legit 6’7-6’8 and can weigh in anywhere between 260-275. Fury is simply too big, too strong and too good for Ali. People bring up foreman, who was 6’3, 220 at best. But fury is nothing like foreman. I mean I don't know **** about boxing but that's about as easy a call as you could make.
Foreman was anywhere from 220 to 270 depending on when he fought and the year. Ali was around that yes.
 
haha I dunno really. Just thought it was funny because I logged on Facebook earlier and somebody made a Fury vs Chisora part 200 and something poster.

We're all just mad because Fury vs Usyk isn't happening and Fury is talking about fighting Jon Jones in some hybrid match. Hate to say, but that does actually intrigue me. lol
 
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Uysk who is 6’2 6’3 and was a natural 160 has just moved up to 220 so easy 60 pounds and 3 divisions and beaten AJ at 6’6 245 twice though. Fury is a different challenge though.
 
Time for me to leave this thread and let it get back to tennis.

Parting note is Pernell Whitaker would beat any current lightweight. Bye.
 
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Fair enough but the fact that the serving is even close between Djokovic and a bot should say quite a lot no?

Looking at the way he chases balls those steps don't look heavy and plodding to you compared to the 20 match? I just don't even know what to say honestly. I think he loses a race to both guys too but the tennis specific movements is where the gap really widens. Don't think I saw either guy slide and almost no open stance balls either. Recovery is slow af. Yeah the FH's are way bigger I wish we had the numbers for it because it's obvious.

Yeah that's why I put optimizing in quotations. I'm saying they took the principles too far. Like the Morey Rockets if you're a bball fan. And I think you're view is limited and archaic so here we are.

Well again as I already said I think in the early 00s we were in a place where the game was changing rapidly and by the end of the 2010s the progess was much slower. The 2023 Nuggets completely obliterate any team in the 00s but any top team from 2015 on could play with them because around 2015 is when the game got closeish to optimized strategically. The era of rapid improvement in tennis was over by the time Djo/Ned peaked and again top end talent of their calibre hasn't come in to push them out. Roddick/Hewitt level talents have come and have the advantages of the last 20 years of advances on their side. I'll take 11 Novak over current Novak because of physicality more than anything. We have the numbers and Djokovic hits harder/bigger off the FH and serve than he did back then though. Not sure about the BH journalists don't seem to focus on that but I'd imagine it's close. He also slices better moves forward better volleys better etc. I think he'd hang with his younger self before wearing down. So yeah as I already said I don't think the gap is big at all. Djokovic/Nadal's strokes/serves were at their best when they were old so if their bodies could hold up they would win.

You seem to think this is narrative peddling that helps Djokovic. I (the person advancing the argument) don't even view it that way. Mbappe isn't greater than Pele just because he would whoop his ass at soccer. You have to evaluate things in their context and you are the one refusing to do that even though doing so actually helps Federer. It actually suits you. Because relative to his era Federer was pretty damn good lol. I'm just not going to sit here and pretend that Roddick would actually beat Djokovic because that's absolute lunacy and you insist the conversation be on those terms instead of relative terms. I'm also not going to accept the argument that when Carlos peaks he peaked higher than Djokovic even though he would beat him (which is coming very soon) because it has to be evaluated on a relative basis. I could show you my arguments on other forums saying Bill Russell has the 2nd highest peak in NBA history even though Jokic would take him out behind the woodshed if they played each other.
What principles did they take too far?

Obviously the overall standard of tennis has improved in general terms across say the top 200 but throughout the decades we've had players competing across generations, and generally giving a good account of themselves against future and present stars despite big age gaps - this is even before "modern medicine" and "modern training" could be used as a reason for longevity. The biggest changes in tennis quality have been technology based and we've not had a revolution there since the early 00's. Federer was near the top of the rankings as a 38 year old (#3) long past his best years, so excuse me if I'm not convinced that the standard of tennis at the top of the game has advanced considerably since 2005. Now for sure Fed in 2005 was ahead of anyone in 2003 but not to such a degree as to make fodder of the top players in their best matches IMO...

Plus the fact is it's normally a new generations ATG that pushes the standard of play higher and we've not had one for a over a decade at this point. I mean, even you begrudgedly give 2011 the edge over 2023 (though the fact you think it's only physicality, is a joke to me but whatever) so obviously the buck stops somewhere...
 
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This is pure nostalgic cope going on in this forum, Ali was what, 215 pounds, is 6’2-6’3 if he’s lucky, Tyson is a legit 6’7-6’8 and can weigh in anywhere between 260-275. Fury is simply too big, too strong and too good for Ali. People bring up foreman, who was 6’3, 220 at best. But fury is nothing like foreman. I mean I don't know **** about boxing but that's about as easy a call as you could make.
Tyson Fury is a far better example because he was actually about to dethrone the previous long reigning champion who reigned for 10 years in Kiltschko. This has yet to happen for Next Gen or any Gen when it comes to Djokovic to at least make any claim they have evolved to a level he hasn’t reached.
 
What principles did they take too far?

Obviously the overall standard of tennis has improved in general terms across say the top 200 but throughout the decades we've had players competing across generations, and generally giving a good account of themselves against future and present stars despite big age gaps - this is even before "modern medicine" and "modern training" could be used as a reason for longevity. The biggest changes in tennis quality have been technology based and we've not had a revolution there since the early 00's. Federer was near the top of the rankings as a 38 year old (#3) long past his best years, so excuse me if I'm not convinced that the standard of tennis at the top of the game has advanced considerably since 2005. Now for sure Fed in 2005 was ahead of anyone in 2003 but not to such a degree as to make fodder of the top players in their best matches IMO...

Plus the fact is it's normally a new generations ATG that pushes the standard of play higher and we've not had one for a over a decade at this point. I mean, even you begrudgedly give 2011 the edge over 2023 (though the fact you think it's only physicality, is a joke to me but whatever) so obviously the buck stops somewhere...
Speaking super generally here if you can't serve plus one it's more important to remain unattackable than to attack on a given ball and that the best way to win is to force your opponent into a situation where if they don't take on too much risk they will lose. The most repeatable consistent path to victory is being able to maintain an edge without taking on risk if we're trading and my trades are a little better over the course of a match I'm gonna win. It's essentially I force you into either letting me repeatedly edge you out or you go for more than you reasonably can and likely go down in flames. Not exactly a great explanation but I think you can get the point. There's a reason styles have converged so much in the last 20 years. That doesn't happen randomly.

Sure but the trendline is always in one direction. Outliers can do their thing but the mean is always moving up which means eventually the outliers are always moving up too.

Yes agreed. Exactly. No ATGs since Djokodal is why no one's better than peak Djokodal. But the next Peak ATG almost certainly will be. It hasn't been long enough for just a good/greatish player to be better than Djokodal. In another 20 years that could happen too. In 20 years the Roddick equivalent may well be better than Djokodal. For example Murray's not greater than Agassi but I bet 2012 Murray beats 95 Agassi comfortably.
 
Basically all players today are either what Fed fans would derogatorily call "servebot pushers" or they follow the sword-shield model with FH-BH. Try to stay alive in BH-BH and work an edge when you get a FH. Typically those guys if they're any good also try to get more FHs with their serves. People who see that as anything other than tennis strategy moving towards what is optimal is overanalyzing. Occam's razor. They do it because it works. Issue is a lot of modern players have invested too deep into the strengths (and weaknesses) of their archetypes and didn't round out their games.
 
Tyson Fury is a far better example because he was actually about to dethrone the previous long reigning champion who reigned for 10 years in Kiltschko. This has yet to happen for Next Gen or any Gen when it comes to Djokovic to at least make any claim they have evolved to a level he hasn’t reached.
I had this discussion with another user and I think @TheFifthSet touched on this facts that it seems a lot of people think Tennis has a smaller talent pool than many sports and isn’t as deep at the very top.
 
Speaking super generally here if you can't serve plus one it's more important to remain unattackable than to attack on a given ball and that the best way to win is to force your opponent into a situation where if they don't take on too much risk they will lose. The most repeatable consistent path to victory is being able to maintain an edge without taking on risk if we're trading and my trades are a little better over the course of a match I'm gonna win. It's essentially I force you into either letting me repeatedly edge you out or you go for more than you reasonably can and likely go down in flames. Not exactly a great explanation but I think you can get the point. There's a reason styles have converged so much in the last 20 years. That doesn't happen randomly.

Sure but the trendline is always in one direction. Outliers can do their thing but the mean is always moving up which means eventually the outliers are always moving up too.

Yes agreed. Exactly. No ATGs since Djokodal is why no one's better than peak Djokodal. But the next Peak ATG almost certainly will be. It hasn't been long enough for just a good/greatish player to be better than Djokodal. In another 20 years that could happen too. In 20 years the Roddick equivalent may well be better than Djokodal. For example Murray's not greater than Agassi but I bet 2012 Murray beats 95 Agassi comfortably.
In absolute terms does mean you have 04/05 Agassi over 95 Agassi. I assume so because you are mostly consistent here.
 
This is pure nostalgic cope going on in this forum, Ali was what, 215 pounds, is 6’2-6’3 if he’s lucky, Tyson is a legit 6’7-6’8 and can weigh in anywhere between 260-275. Fury is simply too big, too strong and too good for Ali. People bring up foreman, who was 6’3, 220 at best. But fury is nothing like foreman. I mean I don't know **** about boxing but that's about as easy a call as you could make.
Inb4 6 foot 2 and a half 210 lbs Usyk schools Fury lol. I generally agree with a decent portion of what you're saying though especially as it pertains to tennis, although I probably wouldn't take it quite as far.
 
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Who played at a higher level?

1. Federer USO 08 final or Djokovic AO 16 final
2. Djokovic Wim 21 final or Nadal AO 17 final
3. Djokovic RG 13 SF or Wawrinka AO 13 4R
4. Djokovic RG 23 final or Djokovic RG 15 final
5. Djokovic RG 12 final or Del Potro RG 09 SF

1. Don't remember the 2016 AO final that well so no answer. Federer in the 08 US Open final was great though, so unless Djokovic was exceptional in the 2016 Australian Open final, would be him.
2. Nadal 2017 Australian Open final
3. Wawrinka Australian Open 4 round. Djokovic was good in the 2013 RG semis, but also got extremely lucky (like giant horseshoe wedged far up his ******* lucky) to be anywhere near a winning position in that match.
4. Djokovic 2015 RG final easily
5. Del Potro 09 RG semis easily
 
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1. Don't remember the 2016 AO final that well so no answer. Federer in the 08 US Open final was great though, so unless Djokovic was exceptional in the 2016 Australian Open final, would be him.
2. Nadal 2017 Australian Open final
3. Wawrinka Australian Open 4 round. Djokovic was good in the 2013 RG semis, but also got extremely lucky (like giant horseshoe wedged far up his ******* lucky) to be anywhere near a winning position in that match.
4. Djokovic 2015 RG final easily
5. Del Potro 09 RG semis easily
Similar picks to abmk pretty much
 
Hewitt in 04/05 was adapting to the baseline generation from dealing vs allcourt play in 00-02. switched to poly, was hitting harder, serving a little better. More consistent in slams in 04/05. only losing to fed in 5/7 slams, 1 to peak safin and 1 to gaudio (RG 04). all eventual winners of those slams. 2 finals, 2 semis, 2 QFs among those.
given 05 was significantly better than 06 when hewitt fell from top 5 to a mere top 20 player, its solely due to the injuries.

I do think if the change in the game had happened earlier he might have been able to adapt better. By the time he began to, he was already starting his physical decline in 2006, plus his prime ending hip injury, which also coincided with Nadal's rise increasing, and soon Djokovic (and later Murray, then Del Potro) all emerging.

That said he still played and did very well in 2004-2005. He would have been a contender (not saying sure winner, and no way he wins all of them of course) to win the title in all 5 slams he lost to Federer, plus losing to eventual winners Gaudio and Safin (the latter in the final itself) in the other 2.

The slower courts, and less players coming to net so some of his great strengths in exceptional passing shots and ultimate counterpunching were negated, so it is a testement to how good he was, he still did as well as he did inspite of this. And Federer coming to the net less after 2003, was also ultimately the virtual death of his chances in that match up.
 
I do think if the change in the game had happened earlier he might have been able to adapt better. By the time he began to, he was already starting his physical decline in 2006, plus his prime ending hip injury, which also coincided with Nadal's rise increasing, and soon Djokovic (and later Murray, then Del Potro) all emerging.

That said he still played and did very well in 2004-2005. He would have been a contender (not saying sure winner, and no way he wins all of them of course) to win the title in all 5 slams he lost to Federer, plus losing to eventual winners Gaudio and Safin (the latter in the final itself) in the other 2.

The slower courts, and less players coming to net so some of his great strengths in exceptional passing shots and ultimate counterpunching were negated, so it is a testement to how good he was, he still did as well as he did inspite of this. And Federer coming to the net less after 2003, was also ultimately the virtual death of his chances in that match up.

well that and Fed becoming damn consistent from the baseline compared to previously.
 
haha I dunno really. Just thought it was funny because I logged on Facebook earlier and somebody made a Fury vs Chisora part 200 and something poster.

We're all just mad because Fury vs Usyk isn't happening and Fury is talking about fighting Jon Jones in some hybrid match. Hate to say, but that does actually intrigue me. lol
Only a matter time before we see more boxers to UFC crossovers or some kind of crossover match but I am sure Fury is not the guy.
 
The early years of Fed with Sampras and Agassi era finishing, so maybe until 2006. Now as Fedal ends, I don't think the ATP actually recovered after COVID. And no one has risen up to the challenge until maybe this last year to now, but certainly the torch hasn't been picked up yet.

Actually the WTA has done MUCH better overall moving along among champions, with good personalities and play. Serena certainly had a run of NPC opponents.
No way is that the weakest.
 
Inb4 6 foot 2 and a half 210 lbs Usyk schools Fury lol. I generally agree with a decent portion of what you're saying though especially as it pertains to tennis, although I probably wouldn't take it quite as far.
I wonder if Fury would be better coming in lighter like he did vs Wlad. Might not matter because he has never had a huge issue in a fight whatever weight he was at. I don’t think Fury will just box with Uysk think he will go for the KO.
 
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Speaking super generally here if you can't serve plus one it's more important to remain unattackable than to attack on a given ball and that the best way to win is to force your opponent into a situation where if they don't take on too much risk they will lose. The most repeatable consistent path to victory is being able to maintain an edge without taking on risk if we're trading and my trades are a little better over the course of a match I'm gonna win. It's essentially I force you into either letting me repeatedly edge you out or you go for more than you reasonably can and likely go down in flames. Not exactly a great explanation but I think you can get the point. There's a reason styles have converged so much in the last 20 years. That doesn't happen randomly.

Sure but the trendline is always in one direction. Outliers can do their thing but the mean is always moving up which means eventually the outliers are always moving up too.

Yes agreed. Exactly. No ATGs since Djokodal is why no one's better than peak Djokodal. But the next Peak ATG almost certainly will be. It hasn't been long enough for just a good/greatish player to be better than Djokodal. In another 20 years that could happen too. In 20 years the Roddick equivalent may well be better than Djokodal. For example Murray's not greater than Agassi but I bet 2012 Murray beats 95 Agassi comfortably.
I don't think this and your second post are really good explanations for why #NextGen are collectively weak. You seem to be saying that percentage baseline tennis has been optimised over the last 15 or so years, almost to the point of being perfected, but now these guys are too one dimensional because they invested all their skill points? Are transition game, touch, volleys etc...so important that the weakness there explains why we've been lacking top talent for so long? Certainly I don't think Med, Zed, Tsits, Rublev etc...are better, are more optimised baseline players than players from 10 years ago, though I suppose Tsits is a serve+1 player? Of course he's clearly inferior that regard compared to say...Roddick a guy what 16 years older than him, even in absolute terms though you'll probably disagree. I guess you think baseline tennis conveniently peaked in 2016 ;)

Well 2012 Murray has the advantage of equipment to be fair. On an absolute level Agassi was hitting the ball better than ever in his later career because of the new racket, he was certainly serving better. But I would never say he peaked in his later career. I don't see as much of a change from 2005 to now as from 1995 to say 2012.
 
I wonder if Fury would be better coming in lighter like he did vs Wlad. Might not matter because he has never had a huge issue in a fight whatever weight he was at. I don’t think Fury will just box with Uysk think he will go for the KO.
Nah I think he has to lean into the size advantage as much as possible. Usyk is going to outbox him regardless of his weight. Fury's feet have slowed too much. He needs to adopt the same approach he did against Cunningham once he realised he was getting outboxed. Coming in heavy would help him. Last time he came in at around 250 against Wallin he looked kinda drained at the weight. I think something closer to 270 is ideal for him these days.
 
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Nah I think he has to lean into the size advantage as much as possible. Usyk is going to outbox him regardless of his weight. Fury's feet have slowed too much. He needs to adopt the same approach he did against Cunningham once he realised he was getting outboxed. Coming in heavy would help him. Last time he came in at around 250 against Wallin he looked kinda drained at the weight. I think something closer to 270 is ideal for him these days.
Possible Fury feet have slowed before the comeback. He uses his speed to force attacks more now but I agree putting pressure on Uysk is the best way. He feels comfortable as a natural big man but maybe he will split it the middle and come in 260-265 range.

The Wallin fight was pretty entertaining. I think once Fury got cut it became a bit messy. I did feel Fury looked sharpest just before the pandemic when he destroyed Wilder he seemed a bit more beatable (even when he beat Wilder in 3 again IMO) after that he is the type of boxer who can raise level out of nowhere.

AJ actually had quite good success just boxing with Uysk from the first 8 or so rounds in each fight but Uysk obviously pulled ahead in the end largely due to conditioning.
 
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While AO 05 is better than AO 09 and 12, I wouldn't say they don't hold a candle.

Nadal RG 12 a little better than RG 05 nadal and Federer of RG 05 obviously better than Djokovic of RG 12. Even if you agreed to stipulate for a second that nadal of RG 12 was a little better than RG 05 nadal, depth of RG 05 obviously significantly better than RG 12, making RG 05 better anyways.

Wim 09 takes it over Wim 05 IMO thanks to 2nd best Roddick of Wim 09 being clearly better than Hewitt, Murray of Wim -09 no worse than Roddick of Wim 05 and Haas of WIm 09 comparable with Johansson of Wim 05.
and it had depth with Hewitt/Karlovic/Sod/Djoko a little better than Grosjean/Ferrero/Gonzo.

USO 09 is interesting in that the QF between fed/sod was a battle of 2 halves - one in windy conditions where fed dominated and other half which was even.
I think the level of the winners has to be factored in.

The top 2 in 05 AO is clearly better than the top 2 in 09 and 12 plus depth is better so it's pretty clear cut.

The depth of 09 Wimbledon is better sure, but 05 Federer is a clear cut above 09 Federer so that makes it stronger. Unless it's a situation like 07 AO or 11 AO where depth is very lacking, then level of the winner matters quite a bit. 05 Hewitt and Roddick would have looked significantly better against the 09 field and probably against 09 Federer.
 
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