From IW onwards Alcaraz won every 'slower than average' competitions he entered apart from Madrid and the OG. How many RG titles for him?

[Rovesciarete]

Obviously one of the greatest returners and all-court players of the last decades. The Clay Goat will leave the tour and the Goat, the second most successful clay courter in the last three decades is showing sometimes his age. So can he start a winning streak?

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-10-14

Date​ Tournament​ Surface​ Ace%​ Surface Speed​ 2023-11-13​ Tour Finals ( SF ) Djokovic​ Hard​ 14.8%​ 1.58​ 2024-06-17​ Queen's Club ( R16 ) Draper​ Grass​ 11.9%​ 1.26​ 2024-07-01​ Wimbledon ( W )​ Grass​ 12.1%​ 1.20​ 2024-10-02​ Shanghai Masters ( QF ) Machac​ Hard​ 11.0%​ 1.17​ 2023-10-23​ Basel ( 23, SF ) FAA​ Hard​ 12.1%​ 1.17​ 2024-01-15​ Australian Open ( QF ) Zverev​ Hard​ 11.1%​ 1.14​ 2024-03-18​ Miami Masters ( SF ) Dimitrov​ Hard​ 10.8%​ 1.13​ 2024-08-12​ Cincinnati Masters ( R32 ) Monfils​ Hard​ 12.0%​ 1.12​ 2023-10-30​ Paris Masters ( 23, R32 ) Safuillin​ Hard​ 11.5%​ 1.09​ 2024-08-26​ Us Open ( R64 ) BvZ​ Hard​ 10.9%​ 1.06​ 2024-09-26​ Beijing ( W )​ Hard​ 8.4%​ 0.91​ 2024-07-29​ Paris Olympics ( F ) Djokovic​ Clay​ 7.3%​ 0.89​ 2024-03-04​ Indian Wells Masters ( W )​ Hard​ 8.5%​ 0.84​ 2024-09-20​ Laver Cup ( W, indeed )​ Hard​ 8.6%​ 0.79​ 2024-04-22​ Madrid Masters ( QF) Rublev​ Clay​ 7.4%​ 0.74​ 2024-05-27​ Roland Garros ( W )​ Clay​ 6.7%​ 0.69​ 2024-02-19​ Rio De Janeiro ( R32, retired ) Monteiro​ Clay​ 4.0%​ 0.68​ 2024-02-12​ Buenos Aires ( SF ) Jarry​ Clay​ 4.6%​ 0.68​

 

[Rovesciarete]

P.S: The blended cElo right now!

Surface-specific Elos--"hElo," "cElo,", and "gElo"--are a mix of overall Elo and separate ratings generated using only results on the given surface. These ratings give more accurate forecasts for individual matches. Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-10-14

Elo Rank​ Player​ Age​ Elo​ ​ hElo Rank​ hElo​ cElo Rank​ cElo​ gElo Rank​ gElo​ ​ Peak Elo​ Peak Month​ ​ ATP Rank​ Log diff​ 2​ Carlos Alcaraz 21.4​ 2203.8​ 3​ 2134.6​ 1​ 2135.8​ 1​ 2091.4​ 2239.6​ 2023-08​ 2​ 0​ 1​ Jannik Sinner 23.1​ 2287.3​ 1​ 2253.8​ 2​ 2131.3​ 2​ 2064.7​ 2287.3​ 2024-10​ 1​ 0​ 3​ Novak Djokovic 37.3​ 2193.9​ 2​ 2146.0​ 3​ 2098.1​ 3​ 2052.6​ 2470.3​ 2016-03​ 4​ -0.29​

 

[nolefam_2024]

Already made a thread for this.

4+ and with a lot of confidence. He is freak on clay.

Alcaraz generational talent : will win 4+ Roland Garros

Carlos Alcaraz has perfect game for clay. His serve is good enough on clay with great kicker out wide. For his height, he can put enough juice to generate 220+ mph on occasion ala Wawrinka. His forehand is very versatile. Breaking the sidelines on will and creating angles. As well as able to...

tt.tennis-warehouse.com

But also he is not Nadal to win double digits

Nadal is like a god of clay is Carlos even close to him

I am seeing Alcaraz on clay for 2 + years and he is very impressive but one thing I thought even at the start was the comparison with Nadal is not great. Nadal is supreme defender, never leaking errors. Carlos can become a complete error machine, which is kind of embarrassing. Aside from the...

tt.tennis-warehouse.com

 

[Rovesciarete]

Already made a thread for this.

4+ and with a lot of confidence. He is freak on clay.

Alcaraz generational talent : will win 4+ Roland Garros

Carlos Alcaraz has perfect game for clay. His serve is good enough on clay with great kicker out wide. For his height, he can put enough juice to generate 220+ mph on occasion ala Wawrinka. His forehand is very versatile. Breaking the sidelines on will and creating angles. As well as able to...

tt.tennis-warehouse.com

Yes, good threads but I wanted mostly a poll. Thanks

 

[Winner Sinner]

So the surface of the Olympic Roland Garros was much faster than that of the standard Roland Garros, obviously I suppose it is due to the microclimate. All the more reason to think that Sinner's presence could have messed up the cards on the table. If you think about it, it's incredible how the absence of the already then world number 1 was snubbed in the economy of the Olympic tournament, this only because incredibly many think that clay still isn't a credible contender despite the fact that at the last Roland Garros he essentially went from a comfortable missed smash (at 30-30 Sinner service in the fourth set 5-4 Alcaraz and 2-1 Sinner) to further suppressing an Alcaraz who later became the future winner of the tournament. Exaggerated resultsism is the bane of tennis analysis where individual episodes that can change the fate of a tournament are deliberately ignored. Certain things should be detailed, which is why I consider Sinner's 2022 to be far better than his 2021 regardless of what the rankings said. However, I don't want to take anything away from Djokovic's triumph, to win the coveted Olympic gold he beat Alcaraz who currently remains the point of reference on the surface until proven otherwise, I simply wanted to underline the anomaly.

 

[Rovesciarete]

So the surface of the Olympic Roland Garros was much faster than that of the standard Roland Garros, obviously I suppose it is due to the microclimate. All the more reason to think that Sinner's presence could have messed up the cards on the table. If you think about it, it's incredible how the absence of the already then world number 1 was snubbed in the economy of the Olympic tournament, this only because incredibly many think that clay still isn't a credible contender despite the fact that at the last Roland Garros he essentially went from a comfortable missed smash (at 30-30 Sinner service in the fourth set 5-4 Alcaraz and 2-1 Sinner) to further suppressing an Alcaraz who later became the future winner of the tournament.

In a so competitive sport with such fine margins small variables can have a big impact. Nole was certainly helped by the format and relative higher surface speed value. Shorter and faster is nowadays for him better.

Exaggerated resultsism is the bane of tennis analysis where individual episodes that can change the fate of a tournament are deliberately ignored. Certain things should be detailed, which is why I consider Sinner's 2022 to be far better than his 2021 regardless of what the rankings said. However, I don't want to take anything away from Djokovic's triumph, to win the coveted Olympic gold he beat Alcaraz who currently remains the point of reference on the surface until proven otherwise, I simply wanted to underline the anomaly.

Sinner was clearly not at the top of his form post Miami and Alcaraz had a greater fitness advantage than usual. We will see if this will narrow in the future, I think there are some good indications.

All in all I agree, lots of people here have missed the sheer strength of Sinner by looking just at single matches and thus fooling themselves. Some also misjudged Alcaraz after a tough indoor autumn and a stunning Zverev serve day.

 

[Tennfan123]

Five. He’ll win the next two nd then another two over his career.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Forgot to add my favored benchmark selection. Three years of clay matches on the master and slam level against top100 players makes for a good body of work:

Rk	Player	M​	DR​	TPW%​	TB W%​	TB/S​	S W%​	G W%​
4	Novak Djokovic [SRB]	32​	1.25​	54.4%​	78.6%​	15.6%​	75.6%​	58.5%​
11	Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE]	46​	1.23​	53.6%​	61.1%​	15.1%​	71.4%​	57.3%​
2	Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]	30​	1.23​	53.5%​	53.8%​	14.6%​	75.3%​	58.0%​
1	Jannik Sinner [ITA]	32​	1.19​	53.1%​	50.0%​	15.6%​	67.8%​	57.0%​
7	Andrey Rublev [RUS]	33​	1.18​	52.6%​	50.0%​	12.5%​	65.6%​	55.1%​
6	Taylor Fritz [USA]	26​	1.15​	52.6%​	54.5%​	15.3%​	62.5%​	54.6%​
3	Alexander Zverev [GER]	44​	1.14​	52.3%​	72.2%​	15.0%​	67.5%​	54.1%​
8	Casper Ruud [NOR]	38​	1.13​	52.2%​	66.7%​	13.6%​	63.6%​	54.3%​
5	Daniil Medvedev [RUS]	24​	1.12​	52.1%​	100.0%​	8.2%​	67.2%​	53.4%​
21	Felix Auger Aliassime [CAN]	23​	1.11​	51.7%​	57.1%​	12.3%​	57.9%​	53.5%​

 

[Rovesciarete]

Here the last two years, no longer with the true Goat of clay. Tsitsiaps stagnating and Sinneraz & Rublev performing better.

Rk	Player	M​	DR​	TPW%​	TB W%​	TB/S​	S W%​	G W%​
4	Novak Djokovic [SRB]	20​	1.27​	54.6%​	85.7%​	11.9%​	74.6%​	58.7%​
1	Jannik Sinner [ITA]	19​	1.29​	54.3%​	50.0%​	14.3%​	69.6%​	58.4%​
2	Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]	20​	1.26​	54.2%​	80.0%​	8.6%​	79.3%​	59.1%​
7	Andrey Rublev [RUS]	23​	1.24​	53.5%​	50.0%​	12.7%​	69.8%​	56.8%​
11	Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE]	30​	1.23​	53.4%​	58.3%​	16.0%​	73.3%​	57.7%​
6	Taylor Fritz [USA]	23​	1.18​	52.8%​	50.0%​	15.6%​	62.5%​	54.8%​
3	Alexander Zverev [GER]	27​	1.16​	52.4%​	63.6%​	14.3%​	66.2%​	54.4%​
35	Tomas Martin Etcheverry [ARG]	16​	1.16​	52.4%​	50.0%​	18.6%​	60.5%​	54.0%​
8	Casper Ruud [NOR]	25​	1.13​	52.3%​	77.8%​	12.7%​	64.8%​	54.5%​
5	Daniil Medvedev [RUS]	21​	1.12​	52.2%​	100.0%​	9.6%​	67.3%​	53.3%​

 

[nolefam_2024]

who would win a Roland garros match between sinner and Musetti in 25?

I am not sure.

 

[Rovesciarete]

who would win a Roland garros match between sinner and Musetti in 25?

I am not sure.

Musetti struggles on slow clay less against power baseliners than everywhere else put he still needs time for his magic. Will try to disrupt Sinner put how much could he do it?

 

[jl809]

The way he nearly lost to Sinner who was carrying some physical issues and hasn’t ever won a meaningful title on clay, then lost to Djokovic by returning serve like a bum and getting outgunned on the FH, makes me think that he is basically dependent on a weak era on clay in order to sweep up RGs, unless he himself levels up massively from what we’ve seen so far. It wouldn’t even need a prime Djokovic or Federer type guy to take RGs or other slow court titles off him rn, let alone a prime Rafa

 

[FeroBango]

The way he nearly lost to Sinner who was carrying some physical issues and hasn’t ever won a meaningful title on clay, then lost to Djokovic by returning serve like a bum and getting outgunned on the FH, makes me think that he is basically dependent on a weak era on clay in order to sweep up RGs, unless he himself levels up massively from what we’ve seen so far. It wouldn’t even need a prime Djokovic or Federer type guy to take RGs or other slow court titles off him rn, let alone a prime Rafa

Then again 21 yo Fed was a major bum on clay.

Also context is necessary. Alcaraz played pretty much nothing on clay and even playing the RG was in doubt because he had no forehand to play with.

Sinner's hip, well, if at all it was an actual issue (considering that it never is when he's winning matches, and is only ever out in the open when he's under pressure in a match), wasn't the only physical factor in that match.

I agree that clay isn't necessarily Alcaraz' best surface but his age and other contextual information are crucial talking points -- including "Sinner hasn't won anything meaningful on clay" not being a meaningful point considering the same could have been and was said before his rise. He's a formidable player on clay and has had a W over Alcaraz, and back to back QF in 2020 and 2021 (iirc) at RG.