Gap growing between Rafa/Djoker versus rest of the field?

[sportsfan1]

Rafa and Djoker, the ATP top two, look set to dominate the tour this year again. They are overall more consistent with serve, returns and the ground game off the baseline. They are able to come back into the match from set or break(s) down, and win matches even on their off days when the game isn't quite there. They win big tournaments across surfaces or at least go deep more consistently than other players. I don't think the rest of the field does this except occasionally.

Murray noted the other day that Djoker makes opponents work really hard even during their service games and you can't really give him any DFs. Rafa gets quality returns back in play even against servers like Raonic and Isner (purely observation, I don't have the stats for this).


Watching the Fognini-Nadal match the other day, each time Rafa moved Fabio around, he would struggle to get the ball back. Same with Raonic and many other players. The contrast with how well Djoker and Rafa move, get into position and get a good ball back even when moved around is striking. Rafa is just completely untroubled by most slices and can find enough time to run around and hit those slices for FH winners inside out or inside in. Both Rafa and Djoker are good at passing opponents, and often placing their defensive shots so that it's not an easy put away for the opponent.

Sure, they had a few hiccups this year, and they have a few weaknesses. Rafa with his backhand and questionable knees/back. Djoker has an average forecourt game. But they can hide their weaknesses or work around them better. Neither has won Wimby (although Djoker did make the '12 Semi and the '13 final.) the last two years, so maybe there's an opening there for the rest of the field.

Wawrinka hit good form and was able to beat the two at the AO, but has since fizzled and it remains to be seen if he can duplicate his success. Fed's been blowing matches that he's ahead and should be winning, and has not had good results against the top two over the last year. Murray's still on the comeback trail, and still goes into matches against the top two as not the favorite. He's also got his problems on clay which is a significant part of the season. There's the odd Dolgopolov win over Rafa, or a Haas win over the Djoker, but there are no consistent threats or players that are bad matchups that would be favored to take either out early.


Do you think the results show that there is a huge gap that's also growing between the top two and the rest of the field, or is it closer? Does the consistency of the top two prove too nagging and overwhelming for the rest of the field? Another year of dominance for the ATP top two?

 

[chjtennis]

If anything, it has shrunk. Wawrinka beat both in AO and young players(Raonic, Nishi, Dimi) have given Nadal trouble.

 

[tacou]

I don't mean to disservice you by not reading this all, but they have been the top 2 for a long time....but Stan just beat both of them in a major, Dolgo broke a big time streak against Rafa..so no, I would not say it is growing, but it is still quite a large gap

 

[firepanda]

I reckon it's shrinking actually. In 2011 and first half of 2012, it was ridiculous. I think pretty much every slam final was Djokodal? Nadal in particular's looking more vulnerable and I think Djokovic feels like he's losing his sting a bit, particularly regarding court control and moving the ball around.

 

[urundai]

I don't mean to disservice you by not reading this all, but they have been the top 2 for a long time....but Stan just beat both of them in a major, Dolgo broke a big time streak against Rafa..so no, I would not say it is growing, but it is still quite a large gap

Not to mention Roger running Djoker close this year (beat him once and took him the distance in the other).

I think it's shrinking and it's probably shrinking faster as previous pigeons are keeping these two on their toes.

 

[jiddy-p]

Agree with OP. These two are clearly a cut above when it comes to clutch moments, in general.

Yes there are upsets; no one is perfect, not even 2004-2007 Federer.

But generally, when either of those guys step onto the court you know they are going to bring a very high level, almost every time. As a Federer fan, it's the worst feeling, knowing that you can't really rely on your man. You know Federer is going to have bad days, like against Nishikori, and basically throw away the match. That's not happening with Nadal or Djokovic.

Dolgopolov brought a very very high level against Nadal at Indian Wells, but just like Federer these days, and just like Wawrinka and all the rest, he's streaky and fails to deliver. Ditto for Murray.

But when Nadal or Djokovic step on, you don't expect them ever to have a really bad day.

Aus final was an exceptional case due to injury, and most people would probably agree that things could easily have gone the other way is Nadal had been 100%.

 

[Goosehead]

I don't agree about top 2 pulling away..milos is slowly improving, he has more variety and is physically stronger than last year..lubo his coach is wanting him to come into the net more so he will be less servebot-no return than before, and his rallying is better..

stan the man..he is up there, murray is getting his level up (and he will) Federer can still win, and dimitrov/Tsonga/isner can take out anyone on any given day.

and of course..Beware of The Dog.

 

[Russeljones]

I don't see any difference, really. They are playing at a similar or lower level in comparison to any other time in the last 3 years. Of their rivals during that time: Murray, Federer, Del Potro, Berdych, Tsonga, Ferrer and Wawrinka, you could successfully argue that only Berdych and Wawrinka have maintained or improved their level of play.

In my view, the bigger picture shows a drop in overall standards.

 

[cknobman]

Its smaller not larger.

 

[reaper]

Since Wimbledon 2012 Murray has won 2 grand slam tournaments and the Olympic Gold. Nadal has won 2 grand slams, while Djokovic has won 1 of the last 8 grand slam tournaments. I'm not even sure there is a gap, let alone one that's widening.

 

[heninfan99]

The new gen of players seem the give Nadal a hard time. Dolgopolov, Raonic & etc. It's a very recent trend. They all know how to beat Nadal now. End the points as quickly as possible. If they are on & Nadal is a bit off they can do it.

 

[90's Clay]

Its still a widened gap. Wawrinka is only good at the AO. So thats just a one/two time thing. Thats not even to mention Rafa had back issues in the finals.

Miami finals coming up and Im sure its another rafa/nole final.

I don't see it really closing (more guys consistently switching it up and beating these two on a more regular basis) AT LEAST for another 2 seasons anyways


I'll bet the farm the next 3 slams will be won by Rafole especially with Murray playing so bad these days

 

[tennisaddict]

Rankings are not doing justification.

Actually Novak is at the top. He wins almost everything except major finals.

Rafa has been winning matches where he was losing for most of the match because of almost consistent chokes from the opponents. He has been lucky to have such a choking opposition.

Hopefully the belief is getting stronger with the wins of Stan and Dolgopov and decent fights by Kei, Dmitrov and Raonic.

 

[tennis_hack]

Yes, the top two are slowly pulling further and further ahead. I think the gap between them and the rest of the tour will continue to widen year after year until Djokovic and Nadal both retire.

 

[tacou]

Rankings are not doing justification.

Actually Novak is at the top. He wins almost everything except major finals.

Rafa has been winning matches where he was losing for most of the match because of almost consistent chokes from the opponents. He has been lucky to have such a choking opposition.

Hopefully the belief is getting stronger with the wins of Stan and Dolgopov and decent fights by Kei, Dmitrov and Raonic.

lol...............................