GAS (The Great Age Shift): Players Who've Been Longer Pros Than Non-Pros.

UnderratedSlam

UnderratedSlam

G.O.A.T.
Rafa turned pro at the age of 15, Federer at the age of 17, Djokovic at the age of 16. So that's half or over half their life-spans already. This used to be much more rare because pros would generally retire roughly around 30. And since very few turn pro as early as 15...

In the age of GAS (Great Age Shift), we shall have more and more cases such as this, whereby at least 50% of a pro's age is spent playing on the ATP tour. In Federer's case it's a whopping 55%. If he retires at 42 it'll be 60%.

I haven't checked, but I'm pretty sure that Lopez, Karlovic, Verdasco, Ferrer, Robredo qualify for this category too. And several others. And aside from Ferrer none of them have yet announced retirement.

The era of GAS is introducing all sorts of anomalies, this being one of them. Other obvious anomalies are no new slam champs since 2014, entire generations going by without winning much of anything, nearly all records being broken, among others.
 
UnderratedSlam said:
Rafa turned pro at the age of 15, Federer at the age of 17, Djokovic at the age of 16. So that's half or over half their life-spans already. This used to be much more rare because pros would generally retire roughly around 30. And since very few turn pro as early as 15...

In the age of GAS (Great Age Shift), we shall have more and more cases such as this, whereby at least 50% of a pro's age is spent playing on the ATP tour. In Federer's case it's a whopping 55%. If he retires at 42 it'll be 60%.

I haven't checked, but I'm pretty sure that Lopez, Karlovic, Verdasco, Ferrer, Robredo qualify for this category too. And several others. And aside from Ferrer none of them have yet announced retirement.

The era of GAS is introducing all sorts of anomalies, this being one of them. Other obvious anomalies are no new slam champs since 2014, entire generations going by without winning much of anything, nearly all records being broken, among others.
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This also cause ages of "breakthroughs" to me much later as more veteran players are still playing elite level longer. These "anomalies" include young players being able to break through and have success early on.

An elite level player usually would break out and win slams by 22-24 years old, sometimes much younger. Now I see players like Tsits, Shapo, Med, Zverev, and FAA breaking through around 24-25.

This leaves the big 3 about one more year, or if lucky two. But I think we truly had a weak generation of players (some of it was due to weak players added with the start of the GAS era), and now we have a next gen that might have something, but due to the GAS era, it won't show for another couple of years.
 
I thought the guys from Connors generation played into their late 30s and early 40s. Perhaps Borg & Sampras retiring early was the anomoly, until Agassi started moving things back in the normal direction.

Sampras has the records, but it's Agassi who was the true 90s legend.

Everyone gave lip service to Sampras, but

*The next generation wanted Agassi's ground game
*They wanted to return like Agassi
*The wanted to win all the slams like Agassi & Olympic Gold too
*They wanted to keep playing deep into their 30s like Agassi

It's been Andre Agassi who has had the most impact on the modern game, despite smaller numbers on the court. Perhaps that's why Nike paid him more then Sampras.
 
Lleytonstation said:
This also cause ages of "breakthroughs" to me much later as more veteran players are still playing elite level longer. These "anomalies" include young players being able to break through and have success early on.

An elite level player usually would break out and win slams by 22-24 years old, sometimes much younger. Now I see players like Tsits, Shapo, Med, Zverev, and FAA breaking through around 24-25.

This leaves the big 3 about one more year, or if lucky two. But I think we truly had a weak generation of players (some of it was due to weak players added with the start of the GAS era), and now we have a next gen that might have something, but due to the GAS era, it won't show for another couple of years.
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Yes, it is a combination of factors. Big 3 dominating this long has to do with

Homogenization in early 00s.

Longer careers due to medical advances.

A weak LostGen.

Because Big 3 genuinely are brilliant and a cut above nearly everyone in the Open Era.

Because the Big 3 motivate each other to prolong their careers.
 
I believe that the BIG3 are the exception and not the norm, just like back in the day there were greats like Connors, Rosewall and Laver who played even into their 40s.Ken Rosewall was almost 40 years old when he reached the Wimbledon final, Connors reached the USO SF when he was 39.


In a few years we will know for sure if there is such a thing as "GAS" :)
 
It can’t explain the lack of elite young talent though, I guarantee 2004 Fed, 2005 Nadal, 2007 Nole, 2008 Murray, 2009 Delpo would make huge waves on the tour even with the increase in average top 100 age. I think part of why players stick around longer is that it makes financial sense to, but most of the old gatekeepers (Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer, etc) we’re better when younger even though they stuck around for a long time
 
Bertie B said:
I thought the guys from Connors generation played into their late 30s and early 40s. Perhaps Borg & Sampras retiring early was the anomoly, until Agassi started moving things back in the normal direction.

Sampras has the records, but it's Agassi who was the true 90s legend.

Everyone gave lip service to Sampras, but

*The next generation wanted Agassi's ground game
*They wanted to return like Agassi
*The wanted to win all the slams like Agassi & Olympic Gold too
*They wanted to keep playing deep into their 30s like Agassi

It's been Andre Agassi who has had the most impact on the modern game, despite smaller numbers on the court. Perhaps that's why Nike paid him more then Sampras.
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I don't know about this. Both Federer and Djokovic idolized Sampras. They both wanted Wimbledon because he owned that tournament and they both were able to win it at least 5 times. I do believe the legend of Sampras had a lot do with what pushed them to achieve that. I do think Agassi had an impact as well, and even though Djokovic plays more like Agassi, he basically worships Sampras. Agassi was the first in a really long time to achieve the career Slam so all of them wanted that as well, but as far the impact on the game as a whole, you have to give it to Sampras. Agassi got paid more because he was more marketable and flashy than Sampras but that's totally different from impact on the game itself.
 
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NoleFam said:
I don't know about this. Both Federer and Djokovic idolized Sampras. They both wanted Wimbledon because he owned that tournament and they both were able to win it at least 5 times. I do believe the legend of Sampras had a lot do with what pushed them to achieve that. I do think Agassi had an impact as well, and even though Djokovic plays more like Agassi, he basically worships Sampras. Agassi was the first in a really long time to achieve the career Slam so all of them wanted that as well, but as far the impact on the game as a whole, you have to give it to Sampras. Agassi got paid more because he was more marketable and flashy than Sampras but that's totally different from impact on the game itself.
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It’s a shame he didn’t incorporate more of Sampras style and aggression, for entertainment purposes if nothing else
 
RelentlessAttack said:
It’s a shame he didn’t incorporate more of Sampras style and aggression, for entertainment purposes if nothing else
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It's not his calling to play Sampras' style since he is a baseliner at heart, but it was Sampras' achievements that made him want to be a great tennis player. I say he did pretty good with the style he has. The game was not meant to be played one way only. At the end of the day, most athletes care way more about winning than they do entertaining people. Sampras himself was not lauded as an entertainer either in his day.
 
NoleFam said:
It's not his calling to play Sampras' style since he is a baseliner at heart, but it was Sampras' achievements that made him want to be a great tennis player. I say he did pretty good with the style he has. The game was not meant to be played one way only. At the end of the day, most athletes care way more about winning than they do entertaining people. Sampras himself was not lauded as an entertainer either in his day.
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He’s done great, but I would love to see top players with anywhere close to Pete’s touch at net. Or even the running FH, jumping FH’s that he could pull off. Delpo’s running forehand at his peak was reminiscent of Pete.

I’m just interested in explosive athleticism, while tennis has shifted more towards endurance and steady state athleticism
 
RelentlessAttack said:
He’s done great, but I would love to see top players with anywhere close to Pete’s touch at net. Or even the running FH, jumping FH’s that he could pull off. Delpo’s running forehand at his peak was reminiscent of Pete.

I’m just interested in explosive athleticism, while tennis has shifted more towards endurance and steady state athleticism
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That's why Sampras is a legend and unique. True legends have they own signature that nobody can replicate. Djokovic has his own uniqueness as well.

I think the era Djokovic played in took athleticism to another level honestly.
 
NoleFam said:
That's why Sampras is a legend and unique. True legends have they own signature that nobody can replicate. Djokovic has his own uniqueness as well.

I think the era Djokovic played in took athleticism to another level honestly.
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Different kind of athleticism, don’t see a lot of slam dunks, diving volleys, or jumping FHs. Certainly conditioning is way better now, and the top players all have great foot speed
 
When the last of the big 3 leaves the top 10 we'll find out whether there's been an age shift at all. At the end of 2007 the average age of the top 10 was 24 and it's been climbing pretty much ever since, as Federer/Nadal/Djokovic have aged. When they and all their contemporaries depart the scene I wouldn't be surprised if the average age of the top 10 is once again 24. Tsitsipas/Zverev/Medvedev/Shapovalov/DeMinaur/FAA etc.
 
BGod said:
I just love the fact Federer has been a pro longer than some NextGens have been alive. Like damn son.
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He played his first pro match in July 1998, which means his first ever match on tour occurred before Stefanos, Shapo, FAA, and De Minaur were even alive!!
 
If Fedalovic were Thanos-snapped out of the ATP right now:
1. Daniil Medvedev, 23
2. Dominic Thiem, 26
3. Alexander Zverev, 23
4. Stefanos Tsitsipas, 21
5. Kei Nishikori, 29
6. Karen Khachanov, 23
7. Roberto Bautista Agut, 31
8. Matteo Berrettini, 23
9. Fabio Fognini, 32
10. David Goffin, 28

Making the average age of the top 10:
25.9 years
That's a normal age. All 10 are younger than Fedalovic. There is no Great Age Shift. It's just Fedalovic being immortal demigods, and a few more cases of remarkable longevity.
 
ForehandRF said:
I believe that the BIG3 are the exception and not the norm, just like back in the day there were greats like Connors, Rosewall and Laver who played even into their 40s.Ken Rosewall was almost 40 years old when he reached the Wimbledon final, Connors reached the USO SF when he was 39.


In a few years we will know for sure if there is such a thing as "GAS" :)
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Yes, but, what about the fact that there are around 50 over30 players in the top 100 compared to 30 years ago when there were just 15...?

Or are you suggesting the Big 3 are responsible for the 47 other 30somethings playing better?
 
UnderratedSlam said:
Yes, but, what about the fact that there are around 50 over30 players in the top 100 compared to 30 years ago when there were just 15...?

Or are you suggesting the Big 3 are responsible for the 47 other 30somethings playing better?
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Honestly I didn't knew that there were many more players over 30 now in the top 100.I believe that the increase in prize money also plays a role these days.
 
ForehandRF said:
Honestly I didn't knew that there were many more players over 30 now in the top 100.I believe that the increase in prize money also plays a role these days.
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You mean to say that players did not play for money 30 years ago?

Actually, the opposite should be true. Because there is more money now, players should be retiring earlier because they can make millions much quicker. 30 years ago a no 1 player could end a career with 10 million, not 100 like now. 30 years ago a top player had more incentive to play on.

Who is more likely to retire sooner, the guy with 10 or the guy with 100 million?

Or you're saying players are greedier now? Players 30 years ago were more like non-materialistic hippies?

Basically it's about medical advances or whatever, but prize money has zero to do with it.
 
UnderratedSlam said:
You mean to say that players did not play for money 30 years ago?

Actually, the opposite should be true. Because there is more money now, players should be retiring earlier because they can make millions much quicker. 30 years ago a no 1 player could end a career with 10 million, not 100 like now. 30 years ago a top player had more incentive to play on.

Who is more likely to retire sooner, the guy with 10 or the guy with 100 million?

Or you're saying players are greedier now? Players 30 years ago were more like non-materialistic hippies?

Basically it's about medical advances or whatever, but prize money has zero to do with it.
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True, but also don't forget that many people tend o be greedy.The want more and more and more :D
 
Don’t agree. It’s money. The medical assumption is true to a point, but it is seemingly predicated in the fact that the 80’s and 90’s were Stone Age medically compared to now. Advances in sports medicine has new polymers but it’s the size of the purse that allows access to all of these advances. The rank and file are still downing an ibuprofen, icing up a sore muscle, and heating up a tight spot.

People knew and know how to eat, if anything the modern diet is worse. It’s the money that allows for private chefs, supplements, trainers, decent accommodations, first class travel.

Homogenization of court surfaces means year round access to prize money once clay shifts to hard or vice versa.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 
Basel semi final
Alex de Minaur age 20
Tsitsipas age 21
Reilly Opelka age 22
Federer age 36

3 of the 4 players are younger than 23.
"Great age shift"
 
robthai said:
Basel semi final
Alex de Minaur age 20
Tsitsipas age 21
Reilly Opelka age 22
Federer age 36

3 of the 4 players are younger than 23.
"Great age shift"
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You're trolling, right?

Or maybe we should base a study of DECADES of age changes on just ONE event, in Basel...

Because clearly Basel is the center of the universe...
 
Big 3 are benefiting from this evolutionary system. Players will have the experience and polished skills without suffering the body fallout that players had 30 years ago.

I though it was absurd at first, but seeing every other sport athletes and people in general achieving peak fitness at age 40+ just makes all the more sense.
 
Jonesy said:
Big 3 are benefiting from this evolutionary system. Players will have the experience and polished skills without suffering the body fallout that players had 30 years ago.

I though it was absurd at first, but seeing every other sport athletes and people in general achieving peak fitness at age 40+ just makes all the more sense.
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Like all great new theories, this one got mocked too, but eventually will become a staple of analyzing this era.

After all, people laughed at the idea that the Earth is round. They laughed at Quantum Physics.

It is difficult to accept GAS, for some people, because they cannot accept that tennis and sports, technology, are all evolving (or devolving), changing. Unlike basketball where the hoop and the ball are the same, rackets and strings (even balls and courts) change drastically: just one example. Tennis is much more equipment-driven than some sports, hence the changes can be drastic and the sport fluctuates. Not to mention medical advancements which as you pointed out reverberate throughout all of sports.

But people hate change because it makes comparing eras difficult or absurd, and this especially goes for GOAT devotees who have a fanatical vested interest in having eras be as comparable as possible so that they can put their idol on a heavenly pedestal.
 
I don't see any players left born in the 1980s. Thought this was the era of the great AGE SHIFT. Where is OP these days? Conveniently disappears when his theory gets debunked.
 
UnderratedSlam said:
Like all great new theories, this one got mocked too, but eventually will become a staple of analyzing this era.

After all, people laughed at the idea that the Earth is round. They laughed at Quantum Physics.

It is difficult to accept GAS, for some people, because they cannot accept that tennis and sports, technology, are all evolving (or devolving), changing. Unlike basketball where the hoop and the ball are the same, rackets and strings (even balls and courts) change drastically: just one example. Tennis is much more equipment-driven than some sports, hence the changes can be drastic and the sport fluctuates. Not to mention medical advancements which as you pointed out reverberate throughout all of sports.

But people hate change because it makes comparing eras difficult or absurd, and this especially goes for GOAT devotees who have a fanatical vested interest in having eras be as comparable as possible so that they can put their idol on a heavenly pedestal.
Click to expand...
:laughing::laughing::laughing::laughing:
 
King No1e said:
Shows that Fedalovic are the exception, not the rule. Take them out and we have an actual top tier of players in their prime.
(Gotta hope that they can actually push Fedal out now)
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I see how it is based on your profile pic and user name. Hope that they push Fedal out but not Djokovic? I hope they push all the dinosaurs out.
 
Roland Garros 2020, Men's Singles Round 4

By Age Bracket:
15-19: 1
20-24: 7
25-29: 6
30-34: 2
35-39: 0
40+: 0

Did OP die? Where is he?
 
Sinner in quarter final and only 19 years old which makes him the youngest player to reach the quarter-finals at a Grand Slam since Novak Djokovic in 2006.
Now all I want to know is where did OP go?
 
Lleytonstation said:
This also cause ages of "breakthroughs" to me much later as more veteran players are still playing elite level longer. These "anomalies" include young players being able to break through and have success early on.

An elite level player usually would break out and win slams by 22-24 years old, sometimes much younger. Now I see players like Tsits, Shapo, Med, Zverev, and FAA breaking through around 24-25.

This leaves the big 3 about one more year, or if lucky two. But I think we truly had a weak generation of players (some of it was due to weak players added with the start of the GAS era), and now we have a next gen that might have something, but due to the GAS era, it won't show for another couple of years.
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Well, it never actually showed.
 
As of today:

Top 10: 2/10 are over 30, 3/10 are 28+
Top 20: 2/20 are over 30, 3/20 are 28+
Top 30: 3/30 are over 30, 6/30 are 28+
Top 40: 4/40 are over 30, 8/40 are 28+
Top 50: 6/50 are over 50, 11/50 are 28+

Top 50: 21/50 players are under 25
Top 50: 18/50 players are under 24
Top 50: 12/50 players are under 23
Top 50: 7/50 players are under 22

Great Age Shift lol
 
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