The Guru
G.O.A.T.
Hey guys,
In a recent thread a couple of posters and I were talking about the problems of our current discussions given the lack of clarity about what each of us means when we're talking and what criteria we're using. It reminded me of the value of projects on another forum I post on about basketball. These projects tend to be super rewarding and I have learned a ton about basketball from them so I want to see if people would be interested in doing something similar here.
Over there they have done projects where they discuss and vote on the greatest players ever, greatest peaks ever (by season), greatest teams ever, player of the year for every year, and more. Each of these projects were filled with people's research and thoughts which were super informative and interesting to read through.
I think if done correctly we could do something similar here with greatest players, matches, peaks etc.
Here is a link to their most recent GOAT player project: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2004777
Such a project would take a lot of time and would need some members of the community to help me run it but I think if done right it could be very rewarding.
Here's an example good post so people can get a feel for what I'm talking about:
Would people be interested in doing such a project and if so which one would people like to do the most matches, players, or peaks?
In a recent thread a couple of posters and I were talking about the problems of our current discussions given the lack of clarity about what each of us means when we're talking and what criteria we're using. It reminded me of the value of projects on another forum I post on about basketball. These projects tend to be super rewarding and I have learned a ton about basketball from them so I want to see if people would be interested in doing something similar here.
Over there they have done projects where they discuss and vote on the greatest players ever, greatest peaks ever (by season), greatest teams ever, player of the year for every year, and more. Each of these projects were filled with people's research and thoughts which were super informative and interesting to read through.
I think if done correctly we could do something similar here with greatest players, matches, peaks etc.
Here is a link to their most recent GOAT player project: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2004777
Such a project would take a lot of time and would need some members of the community to help me run it but I think if done right it could be very rewarding.
Here's an example good post so people can get a feel for what I'm talking about:
1st vote: Pau Gasol
Another decent star with outstanding longevity, Pau entered the league at age 21 and was immediately probably a top 30 player in the league (basically borderline All-Star level player): averaged 17.6/8.9/2.7 @ +4.6% rTS and 2.1 bpg, though admittedly for a terrible team, and kinda turnover-prone as a rookie. tbf, it wasn't much of a cast around him: Shane Battier is a very underrated player (though perhaps cast too high when the 2nd [or arguably 1st??] best player on a team); after that it was Jason Williams and Stromile Swift as 3rd and 4th, and mostly trash behind that.
So overall....pretty good coming out party for the rookie.
In '06 he averaged 20.4/8.9/4.6 @ +1.9% rTS with 1.9 bpg for a team that won 49 games and had the 5th-rated +3.74 SRS (this was with Shane Battier, Mike Miller, an OLD Eddie Jones, and a bunch of spare parts, btw). They were swept in the first round, though due to a brutal WC [and even more brutal SW division that contained the defending champs and the eventual WC champ] and the stupid playoff structure of the time they drew the 60-win Mavericks team (you know, the one that would win the conference). Pau did struggle a bit in the series.
If you somehow blend these two seasons, you get an idea of what "average" P.Gasol was in Memphis.
But in '08 Kobe was barking at the Lakers to either make them a contender or he'd walk, so they bring in Pau......and he almost immediately meshes as the perfect Dick Grayson to Kobe's Bruce Wayne, making the Lakers an instant contender.
Pau would have likely his three BEST seasons as a Laker [from '09-'11], collectively averaging 18.7/10.3/3.4 on approximately +5(ish)% rTS, good turnover economy, and decent defense during those years. They'd win two titles, with Pau playing pretty good in both runs ('10 in particular: 19.6 ppg @ +5.6% rTS, 11.1 rpg, 3.5 apg, 2.1 bpg, and only 1.9 topg.....that's a really nice line).
He'd continue to have relevant seasons all the way out to his 17th season (age 37), ultimately sitting 30th in NBA/ABA history in career rs WS (and currently tied for 40th all-time [w/ Clyde Drexler] in ps WS). He's actually ahead of Chauncey Billups in rs WS [and WS love Chauncey], though is behind Chauncey in ps WS.
He lacks All-NBA accolades more because his prime overlaps that of Tim Duncan [#5 on this list], Kevin Garnett [#11 on this list], and Dirk Nowitzki [#15 on this list]---as well as much of Lebron James [#1 on this list] and other sporadically excellent forwards such as Paul Pierce, Elton Brand, Shawn Marion, and Chris Bosh----than from him lacking All-NBA chops.
I've little doubt that if his competition was John Havlicek, Billy Cunningham, Truck Robinson, Gus Johnson, Bob Love, and Elvin Hayes......Pau would have a few more than he does [likely including at least one 1st Team nod].
At any rate, I think he at least deserves serious consideration at this stage.
2nd vote: Gary Payton
Was about 7-10 places higher on him until just very recently. But he's certainly big in the picture by this point [maybe even overdue??].
Criticized for low shooting efficiency [fair enough point], but he's also got a fantastic turnover economy. Better, for instance, than guys like Jason Kidd, Tim Hardaway, Allen Iverson, Isiah Thomas, Joe Dumars, and John Stockton to name a handful; not much worse than Chris Paul, actually.
Obviously strong defensive acumen early in his prime. Was at the forefront of perhaps the 3rd-best team of the 90s [solid decade as far as competition; giving 1st and 2nd to the Bulls and Jazz, btw]. WS/48 is NOT in love with him [due to aforementioned pedestrian shooting efficiency], yet he's STILL 28th all-time in rs WS.
Best 7-year RAPM added [utilizing Elgee's AuPM as proxy for '94-'96] is right in the immediate vicinity of guys like Russell Westbrook, Arvydas Sabonis, Hakeem Olajuwon, Andre Iguodala, James Harden, Baron Davis, and Penny Hardaway. So pretty good company for this stage of the list, especially noting Payton played more minutes than any of them in their respective samples: nearly 39 mpg on average in those 7 years, while missing just ONE game total [not a typo].
3rd vote: Dwight Howard
Truly there are a number of guys on my immediate radar for this final spot: Kevin McHale, Robert Parish, and Ray Allen all feel perfectly appropriate to me as well. Everyone else in the immediate vicinity on my ATL have already been voted in. The next-closest competitors for me are probably Bob Lanier, Manu Ginobili, Allen Iverson, and Anthony Davis.......but they're all distinctly separated from the others noted above.
Popular opinion on Dwight has REALLY dwindled in the last half-dozen or so years. I feel people have forgotten just how good he was in that '09-'11 range. imo, he peaked in the same general vicinity as bigs like Anthony Davis and Patrick Ewing. This was a guy who was anchoring ON AVERAGE a -5.3 rDRTG during those three years (worst was -4.3, best was -6.4===>which, if I've counted right, is tied [with the '12 and '69 Celtics] for the 23rd-best defense EVER; 12 of those ahead belong to either Russell or Duncan [it's better than ANYTHING anchored by Dikembe, Hakeem, or Wilt]).
He did so without an assortment of true defensive specialists around him (decent ones, for sure; but not great ones).
They simultaneously managed to build some fairly successful offenses around him, by basically just surrounding him with shooters and daring teams to double-team him. Dwight was arguably the best big-man finisher outside of prime Shaq when he got the ball down low. He was just so strong and such an explosive leaper......teams were screwed if he got the ball down there.
Surrounded by mostly what I would call "good role players" he actually led one team to the NBA finals in this span.
While his prime dwindled very quickly after his back injury/surgery in '12, it's not like he was instantly ineffective. He still had some fair/decent years out to around '15 or so, and then of course a somewhat happy resurgence in a 6MOY-candidate kind of role for a title team last year. Not to mention he had a few fairly decent years BEFORE that '09-'11 span, too.
All-around it amounts to a career that looks relatively well-positioned for a top 50 placement, imo.
Another decent star with outstanding longevity, Pau entered the league at age 21 and was immediately probably a top 30 player in the league (basically borderline All-Star level player): averaged 17.6/8.9/2.7 @ +4.6% rTS and 2.1 bpg, though admittedly for a terrible team, and kinda turnover-prone as a rookie. tbf, it wasn't much of a cast around him: Shane Battier is a very underrated player (though perhaps cast too high when the 2nd [or arguably 1st??] best player on a team); after that it was Jason Williams and Stromile Swift as 3rd and 4th, and mostly trash behind that.
So overall....pretty good coming out party for the rookie.
In '06 he averaged 20.4/8.9/4.6 @ +1.9% rTS with 1.9 bpg for a team that won 49 games and had the 5th-rated +3.74 SRS (this was with Shane Battier, Mike Miller, an OLD Eddie Jones, and a bunch of spare parts, btw). They were swept in the first round, though due to a brutal WC [and even more brutal SW division that contained the defending champs and the eventual WC champ] and the stupid playoff structure of the time they drew the 60-win Mavericks team (you know, the one that would win the conference). Pau did struggle a bit in the series.
If you somehow blend these two seasons, you get an idea of what "average" P.Gasol was in Memphis.
But in '08 Kobe was barking at the Lakers to either make them a contender or he'd walk, so they bring in Pau......and he almost immediately meshes as the perfect Dick Grayson to Kobe's Bruce Wayne, making the Lakers an instant contender.
Pau would have likely his three BEST seasons as a Laker [from '09-'11], collectively averaging 18.7/10.3/3.4 on approximately +5(ish)% rTS, good turnover economy, and decent defense during those years. They'd win two titles, with Pau playing pretty good in both runs ('10 in particular: 19.6 ppg @ +5.6% rTS, 11.1 rpg, 3.5 apg, 2.1 bpg, and only 1.9 topg.....that's a really nice line).
He'd continue to have relevant seasons all the way out to his 17th season (age 37), ultimately sitting 30th in NBA/ABA history in career rs WS (and currently tied for 40th all-time [w/ Clyde Drexler] in ps WS). He's actually ahead of Chauncey Billups in rs WS [and WS love Chauncey], though is behind Chauncey in ps WS.
He lacks All-NBA accolades more because his prime overlaps that of Tim Duncan [#5 on this list], Kevin Garnett [#11 on this list], and Dirk Nowitzki [#15 on this list]---as well as much of Lebron James [#1 on this list] and other sporadically excellent forwards such as Paul Pierce, Elton Brand, Shawn Marion, and Chris Bosh----than from him lacking All-NBA chops.
I've little doubt that if his competition was John Havlicek, Billy Cunningham, Truck Robinson, Gus Johnson, Bob Love, and Elvin Hayes......Pau would have a few more than he does [likely including at least one 1st Team nod].
At any rate, I think he at least deserves serious consideration at this stage.
2nd vote: Gary Payton
Was about 7-10 places higher on him until just very recently. But he's certainly big in the picture by this point [maybe even overdue??].
Criticized for low shooting efficiency [fair enough point], but he's also got a fantastic turnover economy. Better, for instance, than guys like Jason Kidd, Tim Hardaway, Allen Iverson, Isiah Thomas, Joe Dumars, and John Stockton to name a handful; not much worse than Chris Paul, actually.
Obviously strong defensive acumen early in his prime. Was at the forefront of perhaps the 3rd-best team of the 90s [solid decade as far as competition; giving 1st and 2nd to the Bulls and Jazz, btw]. WS/48 is NOT in love with him [due to aforementioned pedestrian shooting efficiency], yet he's STILL 28th all-time in rs WS.
Best 7-year RAPM added [utilizing Elgee's AuPM as proxy for '94-'96] is right in the immediate vicinity of guys like Russell Westbrook, Arvydas Sabonis, Hakeem Olajuwon, Andre Iguodala, James Harden, Baron Davis, and Penny Hardaway. So pretty good company for this stage of the list, especially noting Payton played more minutes than any of them in their respective samples: nearly 39 mpg on average in those 7 years, while missing just ONE game total [not a typo].
3rd vote: Dwight Howard
Truly there are a number of guys on my immediate radar for this final spot: Kevin McHale, Robert Parish, and Ray Allen all feel perfectly appropriate to me as well. Everyone else in the immediate vicinity on my ATL have already been voted in. The next-closest competitors for me are probably Bob Lanier, Manu Ginobili, Allen Iverson, and Anthony Davis.......but they're all distinctly separated from the others noted above.
Popular opinion on Dwight has REALLY dwindled in the last half-dozen or so years. I feel people have forgotten just how good he was in that '09-'11 range. imo, he peaked in the same general vicinity as bigs like Anthony Davis and Patrick Ewing. This was a guy who was anchoring ON AVERAGE a -5.3 rDRTG during those three years (worst was -4.3, best was -6.4===>which, if I've counted right, is tied [with the '12 and '69 Celtics] for the 23rd-best defense EVER; 12 of those ahead belong to either Russell or Duncan [it's better than ANYTHING anchored by Dikembe, Hakeem, or Wilt]).
He did so without an assortment of true defensive specialists around him (decent ones, for sure; but not great ones).
They simultaneously managed to build some fairly successful offenses around him, by basically just surrounding him with shooters and daring teams to double-team him. Dwight was arguably the best big-man finisher outside of prime Shaq when he got the ball down low. He was just so strong and such an explosive leaper......teams were screwed if he got the ball down there.
Surrounded by mostly what I would call "good role players" he actually led one team to the NBA finals in this span.
While his prime dwindled very quickly after his back injury/surgery in '12, it's not like he was instantly ineffective. He still had some fair/decent years out to around '15 or so, and then of course a somewhat happy resurgence in a 6MOY-candidate kind of role for a title team last year. Not to mention he had a few fairly decent years BEFORE that '09-'11 span, too.
All-around it amounts to a career that looks relatively well-positioned for a top 50 placement, imo.
Would people be interested in doing such a project and if so which one would people like to do the most matches, players, or peaks?
Looks fun, I would certainly enjoy reading it.
