Moon Shooter
Hall of Fame
I'm pretty excited from what I am hearing how this number might be implemented by USTA. There are still some unanswered questions about who can participate in events that use a WTN but so far I think this will be a large boon to adult rec tennis.
Generally speaking these rating systems are well tested and work well when they are implemented correctly. And by that I mean they work well when they include more relevant data. In general all of the current Tennis rating systems suffer mainly because the entity using the system ignores too much data.
Things I like about WTN:
A) Goes back 4 years (perhaps even earlier since they say they are using data from 2016) as opposed to the hard and arbitrary 12 month cut off used by UTR. The algorithm does count older games less than current games and there is no reason to just completely ignore games older than 12 months - especially if that is the only data you have.
B) Includes many more matches than NTRP so it should be a much better predictor of strength. NTRP does not allow truly coed matches and so the ratings are pretty much completely seperate for men and women. Plus this makes it difficult for smaller areas to form many teams (since you are limited to half the tennis players for most events) and thus the data is very limited. Then you have the issue of mixed games not counting to your ntrp if you have a same gender ntrp. So this system will not only include more matches it will also allow for more matches to take place within it's framework! It will also allow people to play against players under 18 years old and won't as a practical matter exclude younger players that have played in college or high school due to the self rating sheets. So a larger potential pool of players = more tournaments/matches.
C) The software that sets up tournaments seems very feature rich and user friendly. I haven't actually used it yet but this video makes it look pretty nice:
Here are some things I am not sure about:
1) How soon can we have truly coed events? e.g., MM v FM doubles or even MMvFF etc.
2) Can any USTA member set up an event in "tennis serve" or are only certain people allowed to set up a tournament?
3) What are the restrictions on setting up a "tennis serve" event?
4) Will non-usta members be able to participate in these events?
5) Can we have tournaments that run over the course of a few months?
5.5) Will the answers to 1-5 be up to each USTA section so it the answers may depend on what part of the country you live in?
6) ITF often says they base their rating on sets won and lost. This is leading to confusion about how the algorithm works. Heather from USTA said that the algorithm is sensitive to the actual set score. So winning a set 6-0 is treated differently than if you win the set 7-5. But it would be nice if they confirmed this and maybe changed the faq which seems misleading.
7) Will ITF show us what the performance rating for each match was in the history?
8) Our ITF rating will not change if we do not play matches - due to our prior opponents/partners playing new games. The amount of confidence in our rating will go down however. But I am not sure of this: If we do play a match after several weeks will the results of our earlier opponents or partners that may have happened in the interim effect what rating we get after playing again? Or will the only factor be our current rating and out opponent's current rating? (or in the case of doubles also our partners current rating?)
9) Does the algorithm count closer matches more heavily then blow out matches?
10) Is there a limit where the ITF will not count a match if the ratings are far enough apart (unless there is an upset) like UTR does (I think UTR says if the rating difference is over 2 then the match doesn't count unless the underdog wins)?
11) Is there an actual ceiling and floor of ratings at 1 and 40 or will the rating system actually calculate peoples ratings below 1 and over 40 and just show 1 (or 40) for everyone outside those thresh holds?
I would be interested in what other people think about this system and whether they think it will create more interest in adult rec tennis.
Generally speaking these rating systems are well tested and work well when they are implemented correctly. And by that I mean they work well when they include more relevant data. In general all of the current Tennis rating systems suffer mainly because the entity using the system ignores too much data.
Things I like about WTN:
A) Goes back 4 years (perhaps even earlier since they say they are using data from 2016) as opposed to the hard and arbitrary 12 month cut off used by UTR. The algorithm does count older games less than current games and there is no reason to just completely ignore games older than 12 months - especially if that is the only data you have.
B) Includes many more matches than NTRP so it should be a much better predictor of strength. NTRP does not allow truly coed matches and so the ratings are pretty much completely seperate for men and women. Plus this makes it difficult for smaller areas to form many teams (since you are limited to half the tennis players for most events) and thus the data is very limited. Then you have the issue of mixed games not counting to your ntrp if you have a same gender ntrp. So this system will not only include more matches it will also allow for more matches to take place within it's framework! It will also allow people to play against players under 18 years old and won't as a practical matter exclude younger players that have played in college or high school due to the self rating sheets. So a larger potential pool of players = more tournaments/matches.
C) The software that sets up tournaments seems very feature rich and user friendly. I haven't actually used it yet but this video makes it look pretty nice:
Here are some things I am not sure about:
1) How soon can we have truly coed events? e.g., MM v FM doubles or even MMvFF etc.
2) Can any USTA member set up an event in "tennis serve" or are only certain people allowed to set up a tournament?
3) What are the restrictions on setting up a "tennis serve" event?
4) Will non-usta members be able to participate in these events?
5) Can we have tournaments that run over the course of a few months?
5.5) Will the answers to 1-5 be up to each USTA section so it the answers may depend on what part of the country you live in?
6) ITF often says they base their rating on sets won and lost. This is leading to confusion about how the algorithm works. Heather from USTA said that the algorithm is sensitive to the actual set score. So winning a set 6-0 is treated differently than if you win the set 7-5. But it would be nice if they confirmed this and maybe changed the faq which seems misleading.
7) Will ITF show us what the performance rating for each match was in the history?
8) Our ITF rating will not change if we do not play matches - due to our prior opponents/partners playing new games. The amount of confidence in our rating will go down however. But I am not sure of this: If we do play a match after several weeks will the results of our earlier opponents or partners that may have happened in the interim effect what rating we get after playing again? Or will the only factor be our current rating and out opponent's current rating? (or in the case of doubles also our partners current rating?)
9) Does the algorithm count closer matches more heavily then blow out matches?
10) Is there a limit where the ITF will not count a match if the ratings are far enough apart (unless there is an upset) like UTR does (I think UTR says if the rating difference is over 2 then the match doesn't count unless the underdog wins)?
11) Is there an actual ceiling and floor of ratings at 1 and 40 or will the rating system actually calculate peoples ratings below 1 and over 40 and just show 1 (or 40) for everyone outside those thresh holds?
I would be interested in what other people think about this system and whether they think it will create more interest in adult rec tennis.