Greatest threat to Swiatek

Swingmaster

Hall of Fame
Congrats to Gauff on the title but please. Barty was beating her easily before the arm injury.

Muguruza (health dependent) is the biggest threat outside of Swiatek & Barty. I fear she’s not going to be 100% - Sabalenka, Svitolina, Ostapenko all have the games to win a GS. Osaka will be a non-factor imo.
I'm not saying Coco should have the second best gambling odds, but she could be this year's Swiatek. She's turning the corner and will soon become an asskicker. But maybe not quite yet. We shall see.
 

fed1

Professional
Winning a fairly weak 250 is a ways away from being a legit Grand Slam contender. Serving is still a big issue.
 

James P

G.O.A.T.
I don't think she's a genuine threat yet. Perhaps at Wimbledon if she hits a hot patch of service. But the fact that she's into the top 25 at just barely 17 bodes well for her future, especially with her still having a lot of important holes to patch in her game.
 

King No1e

G.O.A.T.
Congrats to Gauff on the title but please. Barty was beating her easily before the arm injury.

Muguruza (health dependent) is the biggest threat outside of Swiatek & Barty. I fear she’s not going to be 100% - Sabalenka, Svitolina, Ostapenko all have the games to win a GS. Osaka will be a non-factor imo.
Ostapenko is not winning another Slam ROFLMAO.
If Barty is fully healthy, I'd call her the 2nd favorite behind Swiatek.
 

guitarra

Professional
I think the main favourites are:

Tier 1 (Top Contenders): Świątek, Barty
Tier 2 (Legit Contenders): Sabalenka, Muguruza, Svitolina
Tier 3 (Dark Horses): Gauff, Badosa, Muchova
Tier 4 (Rather Unlikely): Osaka, Andreescu, Azarenka, Kvitova, Williams
 

Swingmaster

Hall of Fame
Lol no. So overrated.
Another "lol" addict. An overrated seventeen year old who just won another pro tournament? Who just ended Sabelenka's winning streak and gave Swiatek a decent match on clay? Soooo overrated.
 
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Swingmaster

Hall of Fame
She's a better mover and at the net but yea no one is on Swiatek's clay level groundstroke wise.
True. Thats why I'm thinking that a seventeen year old who's figuring it out and has a lot of momentum going might have the best shot (other than injured Barty) of taking out the seemingly unstoppable Swiatek.
 

socallefty

Legend
I think the main favourites are:

Tier 1 (Top Contenders): Świątek, Barty
Tier 2 (Legit Contenders): Sabalenka, Muguruza, Svitolina
Tier 3 (Dark Horses): Gauff, Badosa, Muchova
Tier 4 (Rather Unlikely): Osaka, Andreescu, Azarenka, Kvitova, Williams
Good list, but no space for the 2020FO finalist and Slam winner? Kenin should be added to the list. I would add Bertens and Pliskova to Tier 3 and Kudermetova to Tier 4 based on clay court ELO as of a week ago.

Rank​
Player​
Age​
Elo​
HardRaw​
ClayRaw​
GrassRaw​
hElo​
cElo​
gElo​
Peak Match​
Peak Age​
Peak Elo​
5​
19.9​
2075.1​
1852.8​
1975.9​
1445.2​
1964.0​
2025.5​
1760.1​
2021 Rome F​
19.9​
2075.1​
4​
29.6​
2098.6​
1985.8​
1961.6​
1817.7​
2042.2​
2030.1​
1958.2​
2015 Stuttgart QF​
23.6​
2180.1​
1​
25.0​
2169.7​
2067.9​
1946.0​
1780.5​
2118.8​
2057.9​
1975.1​
2019 Wimbledon R32​
23.2​
2202.4​
6​
27.6​
2061.4​
1983.4​
1891.4​
1687.0​
2022.4​
1976.4​
1874.2​
2017 US Open R32​
23.9​
2111.2​
12​
29.1​
1986.4​
1850.9​
1868.3​
1769.1​
1918.6​
1927.3​
1877.8​
2019 Wimbledon R32​
27.3​
2088.4​
10​
26.7​
2008.8​
1904.7​
1860.7​
1570.3​
1956.8​
1934.8​
1789.6​
2018 Roland Garros R64​
23.7​
2114.3​
19​
29.4​
1948.9​
1847.6​
1859.5​
1666.0​
1898.2​
1904.2​
1807.4​
2020 Doha R32​
28.2​
2047.1​
8​
31.2​
2026.9​
1916.4​
1858.1​
1734.0​
1971.6​
1942.5​
1880.4​
2012 Sydney QF​
21.8​
2177.8​
3​
23.0​
2119.0​
1986.9​
1831.4​
1548.0​
2052.9​
1975.2​
1833.5​
2021 Rome R32​
23.0​
2138.2​
17​
24.0​
1962.2​
1804.2​
1803.6​
1585.6​
1883.2​
1882.9​
1773.9​
2021 Rome R32​
24.0
 

fed1

Professional
True. Thats why I'm thinking that a seventeen year old who's figuring it out and has a lot of momentum going might have the best shot (other than injured Barty) of taking out the seemingly unstoppable Swiatek.
Wouldn‘t Badosa have just as much or more momentum than Gauff? I know there’s no massive hype train attached to her but she’s had better results than Gauff on clay in the last few weeks.
 

MS_07

Semi-Pro
Highly unpredictable field.
Gauff & Swiatek have not proved they can perform consistently at big stages.
Fingers crossed for best performance from both :)

WTA is more interesting to see these days :X3:
I'll keep an eye on Muguruza, Barty, Swiatek, Svitolina, Kenin, Sabalenka, Halep(?).
 

D-Lite

Professional
Barty and Swiatek have to be joint favourite given their clay form this year and the fact both won RG the last time they played there.
Coco Gauff would do well to make the QF or SF as a breakthrough at that level, but I feel she will be there at one of the slams in the next year.
The danger to Barty and Swiatek are Muguruza and Sabalenka, both who have big games and have a lot of Ws this season. Sabalenka seems the more likely to have a wobble if they were both top form, but Muguruza has had an injury potentially from overplaying this season so there's no guarantee that won't recur.
Svitolina is a regular threat on clay but time and time again she's had form going into RG then not made a F.
Kenin has potential but has seemed totally flat since the AO loss where she was then hospitalised about a week or so later with appendicitis. I think people writing her off are probably right as she has no momentum coming into RG, very few wins and likely is having confidence issues - does she believe she can go deep? Do other players fear her? Doubtful.
Talk of Serena's #24 has fallen flat, and for good reason. She hardly plays, and when she does she doesn't win enough matches or go deep. Even winning a 250 would be helpful.
Badosa seems a threat, and she's going to be unseeded I believe, so provided she plays a winnable seed she may slot into their place and get to R4 or QF maybe. I'd like to see her show up and get some big wins, and shake things up a bit, but there's no guarantee she will cope with the new found pressure, more likely pressure she will put on herself as she knows she's playing well enough to win a lot of matches on clay.
Ostapenko, Stephens and co... We know they have high ceilings of play but they don't even sporadically show up and win big tournaments nowadays so I think they don't really deserve to be on the radar. If they can make week 2 maybe we can consider them.
It'll be interesting to see how Pliskova bounces back from the double bagel. I can imagine a terminator Pliskova shows up and sweeps to the title :-D
It will be interesting to see where the seeds fall in the draw. 1 side may be more heavy than the other with favourites. Someone may get Michigan in R3. Someone may get Muguruza in R4.

When are the current ranking adjustments coming to an end? Wouldn't Muguruza be top 5 in the rankings at present? She's seeded 12th!
 
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aussie

Professional
The 3 big match clay court winners this season have been Swiatek, Barty and Sabalenka. They are the form clay court performers in the big, pressure matches and the winner should come from them. They are all capable of beating one another.
 
D

Deleted member 771911

Guest
I think Coco might be ready for a slam QF or SF, but not a title. I just don't think she has the experience or the game to just come out and win the title without more big match experience. Swiatek did have that game which made the difference. I am a big Coco fan, btw, and it's clear she is still a work in progress and the RG field will be a different kettle of fish to the Parma one. The slam pressure, etc, will also be immense for her. She's gotten a taste of it, but she's not played a slam QF and won with conviction or anything. Unless I missed something.
So, Barty and Sabalenka are the best bets to stop Swiatek.
 

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
Calling someone a favourite in women's tennis is the kiss of death. Just like hyping up a next gen guy on the ATP tour.
 

Swingmaster

Hall of Fame
Maybe Stephens?
It wouldnt shock me. I thought for sure she'd succumb to Suaraz Navarro and her feel good story, but she's one of the small handful who can feasibly take down Swiatek. It's weird to talk about Iga this way but I think it's warranted. Her clay game is ridiculous. Watching Serena yesterday made me doubtful about her chances, but she at least has it in her.
 
Crazy tournament so far with Osaka and Barty withdrawing, Andrescu, Pliskava, Kvitova, and Bencic losing. Top two and five of top 11 seeds already gone.
 

zvelf

Hall of Fame
Gauff & Swiatek have not proved they can perform consistently at big stages.
This is a strange statement to make considering Iga is defending champion here.

Crazy tournament so far with Osaka and Barty withdrawing, Andrescu, Pliskava, Kvitova, and Bencic losing. Top two and five of top 11 seeds already gone.
Kvitova also withdrew and did not lose. Pliskova came here in awful form, getting double bageled by Swiatek, so her losing is no big surprise.
 

Swingmaster

Hall of Fame
Iga handled Gauff without great difficulty recently. Sabalenka and Badosa are Swiatek's biggest threats.
7-6 6-3 Gauff vs Swiatek. First set was obviously very close. Sabelenka does seem like a threat, but we'll see if she can get over her grand slam struggles.
 
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