Handicapping French Open

[citybert]

Its still early but is there really a standout favorite to win the french this year?

Djokovic: His results have been really shaky this year but its less likely that someone like Kyrgios can hit him off the court on clay. Not to mention his personal issues that are rumored.

Federer: He hasnt played any clay event leading up to the event and doesnt plan on it.

Murray: He lost to ARV and Thiem and also Vasek early on hardcourts.

Nadal: Obvious choice to get his 10th crown but has he really beat anyone good this year. His results are great but he hasnt beat anyone good on clay yet and even some of the matches he plays in he definitely looks his age. Even on hardcourts he didnt have impressive wins

As for the rest of the field, Kei is hurt again, cant rely on Krygios on clay, none of the Americans can play on clay. Havent seen much if Stan admittedly though.

Could this be a year that AVR, PCB, Luca, Monfils, Goffin or someone else comes through?

 

[Newcomer]

The winner will still most likely be a top player. Can't see somebody like Thiem winning a slam.

 

[kabob]

It'll be Rafa (very much the favorite) or Federer (distant but not impossible second-favorite) unless Murray/Djokovic/Stan show *something* over the next few weeks.

 

[Brave New World]

I do think the stand out favourite is the Nadal, sure he hasn't been beating the cream of the crop but as you say they are either on hiatus (Federer) or out of form/injured (Djokovic/Murray/Roanic/Nishikori) i.e. those that one would class as 'good' haven't been. He has however beaten players like ARV, Thiem and Goffin, with comfort,who have been very useful on the clay so far, even if he was the clear favourite in those match-ups. My head still says that full on Slamimal Stan is second favourite and could be the one to hurt him. But anything is possible of course and a lot can change between now and then. I do though think the names you mention at the end could have v.good FOs

 

[2HBH-DTL]

Something tells me Stan is going to make it about half way through the draw and lose. Probably 4th round.

 

[sbengte]

Nadal: Obvious choice to get his 10th crown but has he really beat anyone good this year. His results are great but he hasnt beat anyone good on clay yet and even some of the matches he plays in he definitely looks his age. Even on hardcourts he didnt have impressive wins

As for the rest of the field, Kei is hurt again, cant rely on Krygios on clay, none of the Americans can play on clay. Havent seen much if Stan admittedly though.

Could this be a year that AVR, PCB, Luca, Monfils, Goffin or someone else comes through?

Just read your post again. Does Nadal really need to beat anyone good to win the title ?

The clay tournaments so far say no and I don't see why it will be any different for the rest of the clay season including the FO.

 

[sbengte]

I do think the stand out favourite is the Nadal, sure he hasn't been beating the cream of the crop but as you say they are either on hiatus (Federer) or out of form/injured (Djokovic/Murray/Roanic/Nishikori) i.e. those that one would class as 'good' haven't been. He has however beaten players like ARV, Thiem and Goffin, with comfort,who have been very useful on the clay so far, even if he was the clear favourite in those match-ups. My head still says that full on Slamimal Stan is second favourite and could be the one to hurt him. But anything is possible of course and a lot can change between now and then. I do though think the names you mention at the end could have v.good FOs

I think there will be a ****ty draw again at the FO, with Djoker, Stan,Delpo,Goffin,Kyrgios,Thiem all in the same half. As if the pathetic state of the field is not enough.

 

[Brokenstrings]

I think there will be a ****ty draw again at the FO, with Djoker, Stan,Delpo,Goffin,Kyrgios,Thiem all in the same half. As if the pathetic state of the field is not enough.

The draws have been terrible lately. It will be interesting to see who makes the quarters... Nadal should win though.

 

[r2473]

Defending champion to complete double career Grand Slam (something Fed nor Nadal have done).

 

[ibbi]

I would say Rafa based on form, and Stan based on Stanimal. Murray looks in a better place than Djokovic right now, I'd probably have him a pretty distant third. If those last 5 days of the tournament are hot and bouncy then Nadal will be tough to stop, if they are not, I would put Wawa as the fave.

 

[mightyrick]

It has to be Nadal just based on his form. He is clearly getting better with each match and looks to be peaking at the right time.

Murray is decent but hot hitting with confidence. Too much pushing. Djokovic is mentally not in form. Federer is better than both Djokovic and Murray right now but can't best Nadal in this form.

I think Wawrinka is the second favorite. The guy is too weird to predict. He is the only guy I've seen who can play in total garbage form for months... only to miraculously turn his form around in a two week slam. He's proven it more than a couple of times.

So for me. Nadal the favorite. Wawrinka the second in line.

 

[Deleted member 740774]

I think Delpo has a shot here, we'll see how he does in Estoril this week, he played well to beat Sugita

 

[ncgator]

Simple:
1. Nadal
2. Federer
3. Wawrinka

That's it

 

[Jackuar]

Federer: He hasnt played any clay event leading up to the event and doesnt plan on it.

Umm, I think someone won a slam recently without match practice. Can't recollect who...

 

[BGod]

Nadal probably above 50%
Wawrinka is my 2nd pick and Federer behind him.

Then, as badly as Novak has been, he's the 4th guy. Nobody stands out after that.

 

[Bender]

While the Nadal that got his tenth MC and Barca crowns this year was clearly not the worldbeating Nadal of old, if he keeps winning some good matches in Madrid and Rome, then his confidence should be high enough to do very well at RG. Beating the likes of Murray or Djokovic would obviously get his confidence rocketing sky high, but over the years I've noticed that Nadal gains confidence beating pretty much anyone that puts up a fight, regardless of whether the opponent is Federer or Schwartzman.

We saw something like this last year, where good runs in MC and Barca against passable competition with some notable exceptions (before suffering losses to Murray and Djokovic in Madrid and Rome), were sufficient enough for Rafa to have the best possible start at RG in years.

Granted, those three matches at RG aren't enough to say with too much confidence that he'd have at least made the F at RG last year, but Rafa playing out of his mind from R1 at RG usually spells disaster to everybody else in the draw in a way that does not apply in any other tournament.

Still, I'd say that Federer would be the biggest favourite for RG this year by a sliver, considering his track record against the entire field--Nadal included--this year.

 

[Mazz Retic]

Nadal




Fed/Waw/Djo/Mur



Thiem/Delpo


Rest of field

 

[citybert]

I think Delpo has a shot here, we'll see how he does in Estoril this week, he played well to beat Sugita

I doubt it. But that would be amazing. I dont think there are any JMDP haters out there. If he made it deep everyone would be rooting for him.