Hard Court Stats Leaders Through 2019 IW

[Meles]

For reference 53.5% points won on hard courts at an event makes for a weak slam champion (54.5% or higher betterer). Low return numbers are an issue as well and a player becomes at best a Roddick if much below 37.0% on return during their contending years. High server number paramount at slams, so 67% serve points won is borderline, but really not an eliminating factor (seed Djokodalray). The biggest stand outs players for me below are Djoko's very high numbers along with Nadal on all numbers and Medvedev on return (very high numbers for 6' 6" player). Tsitsipas definitely lower than expected in stats for 3rd place in ATP race.

Hard Points Won (notable surprises bolded):
1 Novak Djokovic 56.62% peakish hard court numbers
2 Rafael Nadal 55.93% peak hard court numbers
3 Gael Monfils 54.28%
4 Roger Federer 54.13% (little lowish for typical Federe, so the decline is really happening)
5 Daniil Medvedev 53.66%
6 Grigor Dimitrov 53.28%
7 John Isner 52.91%
8 Alexander Zverev 52.90%
9 Kei Nishikori 52.79%
10 Roberto Bautista Agut 52.73%
11 Kevin Anderson 52.53%
12 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 52.50%
13 Milos Raonic 52.24%
14 Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 52.11%
15 Alex De Minaur 52.09%
16 Denis Shapovalov 52.08%
17 Daniel Evans 51.86%
18 Felix Auger Aliassime 51.83%
19 Sam Querrey 51.73%
20 Stefanos Tsitsipas 51.69% (amazingly low given his results)
21 Jan Lennard Struff 51.51%
22 Tomas Berdych 51.38%
23 Miomir Kecmanovic 51.22%
24 Fernando Verdasco 51.12%
25 Marcos Baghdatis 51.07%
26 Maximilian Marterer 51.03%
27 Dominic Thiem 51.02%* (Thiem a very credible 55.3% at IW, so really low before those five matches)
28 Ivo Karlovic 50.99%
29 Cameron Norrie 50.99%
30 Filip Krajinovic 50.97%
31 Borna Coric 50.94%
32 Stan Wawrinka 50.89%
33 Pablo Carreno Busta 50.89%
34 David Ferrer 50.75%
35 Radu Albot 50.73%
36 Reilly Opelka 50.73%
37 Jordan Thompson 50.69%
38 Marin Cilic 50.56%
39 Marton Fucsovics 50.55%
40 John Millman 50.53%
41 Steve Johnson 50.46%
42 Philipp Kohlschreiber 50.41%
43 Nikoloz Basilashvili 50.37%
44 Andreas Seppi 50.36%

Khachanov notably not on list despite good IW as sick plus new rackets had him down.

Serverer leaders (very high numbers here which implies Australian surfaces were fairly fast this year):
1 John Isner 77.48%
2 Ivo Karlovic 75.60%
3 Reilly Opelka 75.45%
4 Roger Federer 73.61%
5 Milos Raonic 73.35%
6 Rafael Nadal 72.11%
7 Novak Djokovic 71.18%
8 Nick Kyrgios 70.22%
9 Sam Querrey 70.13%
10 Kevin Anderson 69.96%
11 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 69.89%
12 Maximilian Marterer 69.35%
13 Matteo Berrettini 69.28%
14 Stefanos Tsitsipas 69.27%
15 Roberto Bautista Agut 69.19%
16 Juan Martin Del Potro 68.70%
17 Grigor Dimitrov 68.63%
18 Alexander Zverev 67.83% (fairly Zedrotian level for him and this is driven downward buy horrific 2nd serve won numbers below 50%)
19 Stan Wawrinka 67.62%
20 Leonardo Mayer 67.53%
21 Daniel Evans 67.51%
22 Brayden Schnur 67.46%
23 Denis Shapovalov 67.44% (was 64.0% for 2nd half of 2018 post serve change so this is good news)
24 Jan Lennard Struff 67.35%
25 Ugo Humbert 67.33%
26 Steve Johnson 67.28%
27 Felix Auger Aliassime 66.91% (very good for young player on hard and played South American clay so this number does not have a ton of data points)
28 Miomir Kecmanovic 66.83%
29 Taylor Harry Fritz 66.74%
30 Denis Istomin 66.67%
31 Philipp Kohlschreiber 66.63%
32 Ernests Gulbis 66.62%
33 Kei Nishikori 66.51%
34 Jeremy Chardy 66.45%
35 Tennys Sandgren 66.43%
36 Pierre Hugues Herbert 66.39%
37 Borna Coric 66.36%
38 Dominic Thiem 66.33% (healthy 73.6% at IW, so Thiem really, really bad earlierer in year)
39 Ryan Harrison 66.17%
40 Tomas Berdych 66.14%
41 Guido Pella 65.91%
42 Lucas Pouille 65.89%

Hard Court Return Leaders:
1 Novak Djokovic 44.04% The three leaders quite high considering the serve numbers so far this year
2 Gael Monfils 43.03%
3 Daniil Medvedev 42.50% (Excellent number and scary if he starts serving well like Tokyo where he won 75% of serve points)
4 Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 42.22%
5 Rafael Nadal 41.15%
6 Yoshihito Nishioka 40.08%
7 Kei Nishikori 39.97%
8 Jaume Munar 39.83%
9 Marcos Baghdatis 39.59%
10 Andrey Rublev 39.23%
11 Ricardas Berankis 39.00%
12 Cameron Norrie 38.96%
13 Marton Fucsovics 38.93%
14 Alexander Zverev 38.89% (strong numbers again for such a tall player and likely means he'll be winning slams soon enough)
15 David Goffin 38.61%
16 Pablo Carreno Busta 38.51%
17 Grigor Dimitrov 38.50%
18 Filip Krajinovic 38.33%
19 Alex De Minaur 37.96%
20 Gilles Simon 37.94%
21 Jordan Thompson 37.78%
22 Roberto Bautista Agut 37.56%
23 David Ferrer 37.56%
24 Andreas Seppi 37.46%
25 Fernando Verdasco 37.30%
26 Ilya Ivashka 37.15%
27 Nikoloz Basilashvili 37.14%
28 Denis Shapovalov 36.93% (decent return level, but was betterer at end of last year)
29 Radu Albot 36.91%
30 Daniel Evans 36.85%
31 Alex Bolt 36.82%
32 Benoit Paire 36.81%
33 Jan Lennard Struff 36.68%
34 Peter Gojowczyk 36.62%
35 Albert Ramos 36.57%
36 Felix Auger Aliassime 36.53%
37 Karen Khachanov 36.52%
*Thiem at IW just 37.5%
*Federer 36.48% so this is the cause of the decline in points numbers, not the serverer
*Tsitsipas a poor 34.3%, so this is bad, bad news for Tsitsispas fans as this is not a tenable number for a slam winner

 

[IowaGuy]

How much higher are Monfils' % compared to his previous years?

Is this just an anomaly considering it's only March and not a ton of matches, or at age 32 is he trying to make a run this year?

 

[Meles]

How much higher are Monfils' % compared to his previous years?

Is this just an anomaly considering it's only March and not a ton of matches, or at age 32 is he trying to make a run this year?

He's not played a ton. His serve has gotten better the last few years and that is why you saw him at 2016 US Open SF. Serve probably better now. Gael has been super defensive lately even outlasting a grinder like Medvedev. He'll hit bigger most of the time. Achilles injured so he's probably a non-factor until US Open series given his grass and clay play (flashes of brilliance on clay, but generally not as good as his best results).

Sadly injuries often kill players careers and Tsonga in the same boat. Can't stay healthy long enough to get to peak form and so ranking dips, lose seeding, and before you know it your on the Bendych express.

 

[True Fanerer]

To date win/loss:

Federer 12-2
Nadal 11-2
Djokovic 11-2

Federer > Djokodal

 

[Meles]

To date win/loss:

Federer 12-2
Nadal 11-2
Djokovic 11-2

Federer > Djokodal

I look at points stats as they are closest to showing potential of player. Points stats say Tsitsipas overachieving and will come back to pack. Tournament wins is crudest stat followed by your example.

As Fed was serving out first set versus Thiem he was even on points before finishing that game. When you see that you know the match is closer than the scoreline of 6-3 indicates. In the end no one gets away from points won. Games won is not bad because we can now pull combined games won numbers back to 1969 while separate numbers only available starting in 1991.

I thought visually Fed had shaken off decline of late 2018, but numbers say not really. Still 54% is awesome and more than enough with normal schedule to be top 3 or 4.

 

[MichaelNadal]

To date win/loss:

Federer 12-2
Nadal 11-2
Djokovic 11-2

Federer > Djokodal

Epic.
Fed really is impressive, what he's doing at his age is sick. Same for Venus really even though she's less successful, making those 2 slam and WTF finals in 2017 was amaze. Legends.

 

[True Fanerer]

I look at points stats as they are closest to showing potential of player. Points stats say Tsitsipas overachieving and will come back to pack. Tournament wins is crudest stat followed by your example.

As Fed was serving out first set versus Thiem he was even on points before finishing that game. When you see that you know the match is closer than the scoreline of 6-3 indicates. In the end no one gets away from points won. Games won is not bad because we can now pull combined games won numbers back to 1969 while separate numbers only available starting in 1991.

I thought visually Fed had shaken off decline of late 2018, but numbers say not really. Still 54% is awesome and more than enough with normal schedule to be top 3 or 4.

2nd sets are killing Fed. I bet if it was broken down into sets, he'd look good in 1st sets.

 

[True Fanerer]

Epic.
Fed really is impressive, what he's doing at his age is sick. Same for Venus really even though she's less successful, making those 2 slam and WTF finals in 2017 was amaze. Legends.

I didn't realize he had a better record. It won't last long

 

[IowaGuy]

Sadly injuries often kill players careers and Tsonga in the same boat. Can't stay healthy long enough to get to peak form and so ranking dips, lose seeding, and before you know it your on the Bendych express.

Before your time this happened to some other very talented players such as Mecir and more recently Soderling (illness)...

 

[Meles]

Before your time this happened to some other very talented players such as Mecir and more recently Soderling (illness)...

I was around for both and a Mecir fan. What took Miloslav down?

 

[IowaGuy]

I was around for both and a Mecir fan. What took Miloslav down?

Mecir retired at age of 26 due to back problems... He reached the finals of the AO and won Indian Wells the year before, and won the olympic gold medal 2 years before retiring!

 

[metsman]

48 year old beer belly Baghdatis one of the top hard court returners in the world huh

 

[Meles]

48 year old beer belly Baghdatis one of the top hard court returners in the world huh

Haha. It was only 5 matches and I couldn't bare to filter him out. Thought those numbers might make @NatF and others happy. If Baghy wasn't a walking injury he might have some life yet left in him. Generally my filter was six matches or more, but your fave FAA got an exception as well.

I'm just posting stats and not advocating you bet your life savings on Dimitrov because his points numbers are really quite good despite a poorish start to year. Injury again in his case too.

Its reading tea leaves to some extent. One of my 2017 failures was failing to spot Zverev's early hard court surge in 2nd serve points won. Interestingly, despite good points won numbers, Zedrot's 2nd serve points won is much, much worse than 2017. I called the guy Zedbot in 2017 because of his tremendous 2nd serve point won numbers, not because of his first serve. Now the 2nd serve is in the toilet so far in 2019. Makes me shake my head, but he'll probably snap out of it and go on a tear soon enough. Other nice tea leave is FAA's game (14 aces in two sets today.)

 

[Nadalgaenger]

For reference 53.5% points won on hard courts at an event makes for a weak slam champion (54.5% or higher betterer). Low return numbers are an issue as well and a player becomes at best a Roddick if much below 37.0% on return during their contending years. High server number paramount at slams, so 67% serve points won is borderline, but really not an eliminating factor (seed Djokodalray). The biggest stand outs players for me below are Djoko's very high numbers along with Nadal on all numbers and Medvedev on return (very high numbers for 6' 6" player). Tsitsipas definitely lower than expected in stats for 3rd place in ATP race.

Hard Points Won (notable surprises bolded):
1 Novak Djokovic 56.62% peakish hard court numbers
2 Rafael Nadal 55.93% peak hard court numbers
3 Gael Monfils 54.28%
4 Roger Federer 54.13% (little lowish for typical Federe, so the decline is really happening)
5 Daniil Medvedev 53.66%
6 Grigor Dimitrov 53.28%
7 John Isner 52.91%
8 Alexander Zverev 52.90%
9 Kei Nishikori 52.79%
10 Roberto Bautista Agut 52.73%
11 Kevin Anderson 52.53%
12 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 52.50%
13 Milos Raonic 52.24%
14 Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 52.11%
15 Alex De Minaur 52.09%
16 Denis Shapovalov 52.08%
17 Daniel Evans 51.86%
18 Felix Auger Aliassime 51.83%
19 Sam Querrey 51.73%
20 Stefanos Tsitsipas 51.69% (amazingly low given his results)
21 Jan Lennard Struff 51.51%
22 Tomas Berdych 51.38%
23 Miomir Kecmanovic 51.22%
24 Fernando Verdasco 51.12%
25 Marcos Baghdatis 51.07%
26 Maximilian Marterer 51.03%
27 Dominic Thiem 51.02%* (Thiem a very credible 55.3% at IW, so really low before those five matches)
28 Ivo Karlovic 50.99%
29 Cameron Norrie 50.99%
30 Filip Krajinovic 50.97%
31 Borna Coric 50.94%
32 Stan Wawrinka 50.89%
33 Pablo Carreno Busta 50.89%
34 David Ferrer 50.75%
35 Radu Albot 50.73%
36 Reilly Opelka 50.73%
37 Jordan Thompson 50.69%
38 Marin Cilic 50.56%
39 Marton Fucsovics 50.55%
40 John Millman 50.53%
41 Steve Johnson 50.46%
42 Philipp Kohlschreiber 50.41%
43 Nikoloz Basilashvili 50.37%
44 Andreas Seppi 50.36%

Khachanov notably not on list despite good IW as sick plus new rackets had him down.

Serverer leaders (very high numbers here which implies Australian surfaces were fairly fast this year):
1 John Isner 77.48%
2 Ivo Karlovic 75.60%
3 Reilly Opelka 75.45%
4 Roger Federer 73.61%
5 Milos Raonic 73.35%
6 Rafael Nadal 72.11%
7 Novak Djokovic 71.18%
8 Nick Kyrgios 70.22%
9 Sam Querrey 70.13%
10 Kevin Anderson 69.96%
11 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 69.89%
12 Maximilian Marterer 69.35%
13 Matteo Berrettini 69.28%
14 Stefanos Tsitsipas 69.27%
15 Roberto Bautista Agut 69.19%
16 Juan Martin Del Potro 68.70%
17 Grigor Dimitrov 68.63%
18 Alexander Zverev 67.83% (fairly Zedrotian level for him and this is driven downward buy horrific 2nd serve won numbers below 50%)
19 Stan Wawrinka 67.62%
20 Leonardo Mayer 67.53%
21 Daniel Evans 67.51%
22 Brayden Schnur 67.46%
23 Denis Shapovalov 67.44% (was 64.0% for 2nd half of 2018 post serve change so this is good news)
24 Jan Lennard Struff 67.35%
25 Ugo Humbert 67.33%
26 Steve Johnson 67.28%
27 Felix Auger Aliassime 66.91% (very good for young player on hard and played South American clay so this number does not have a ton of data points)
28 Miomir Kecmanovic 66.83%
29 Taylor Harry Fritz 66.74%
30 Denis Istomin 66.67%
31 Philipp Kohlschreiber 66.63%
32 Ernests Gulbis 66.62%
33 Kei Nishikori 66.51%
34 Jeremy Chardy 66.45%
35 Tennys Sandgren 66.43%
36 Pierre Hugues Herbert 66.39%
37 Borna Coric 66.36%
38 Dominic Thiem 66.33% (healthy 73.6% at IW, so Thiem really, really bad earlierer in year)
39 Ryan Harrison 66.17%
40 Tomas Berdych 66.14%
41 Guido Pella 65.91%
42 Lucas Pouille 65.89%

Hard Court Return Leaders:
1 Novak Djokovic 44.04% The three leaders quite high considering the serve numbers so far this year
2 Gael Monfils 43.03%
3 Daniil Medvedev 42.50% (Excellent number and scary if he starts serving well like Tokyo where he won 75% of serve points)
4 Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 42.22%
5 Rafael Nadal 41.15%
6 Yoshihito Nishioka 40.08%
7 Kei Nishikori 39.97%
8 Jaume Munar 39.83%
9 Marcos Baghdatis 39.59%
10 Andrey Rublev 39.23%
11 Ricardas Berankis 39.00%
12 Cameron Norrie 38.96%
13 Marton Fucsovics 38.93%
14 Alexander Zverev 38.89% (strong numbers again for such a tall player and likely means he'll be winning slams soon enough)
15 David Goffin 38.61%
16 Pablo Carreno Busta 38.51%
17 Grigor Dimitrov 38.50%
18 Filip Krajinovic 38.33%
19 Alex De Minaur 37.96%
20 Gilles Simon 37.94%
21 Jordan Thompson 37.78%
22 Roberto Bautista Agut 37.56%
23 David Ferrer 37.56%
24 Andreas Seppi 37.46%
25 Fernando Verdasco 37.30%
26 Ilya Ivashka 37.15%
27 Nikoloz Basilashvili 37.14%
28 Denis Shapovalov 36.93% (decent return level, but was betterer at end of last year)
29 Radu Albot 36.91%
30 Daniel Evans 36.85%
31 Alex Bolt 36.82%
32 Benoit Paire 36.81%
33 Jan Lennard Struff 36.68%
34 Peter Gojowczyk 36.62%
35 Albert Ramos 36.57%
36 Felix Auger Aliassime 36.53%
37 Karen Khachanov 36.52%
*Thiem at IW just 37.5%
*Federer 36.48% so this is the cause of the decline in points numbers, not the serverer
*Tsitsipas a poor 34.3%, so this is bad, bad news for Tsitsispas fans as this is not a tenable number for a slam winner

Superb stuff (as always)!

So how do Fed and Djoker's peak numbers compare?

Also, from this, it seems hard to see Djokovic losing much on HC without some major flukes. How did Kohlschreiber happen?

 

[Red Rick]

@Meles Roddick was over 56% points won at the 2003 USO.

Stronk Slam Champ confirmed.

 

[Meles]

@Meles Roddick was over 56% points won at the 2003 USO.

Stronk Slam Champ confirmed.

I'm pretty sure that is the year he cranked out big serving numbers in US Open Series events, even betterer than peak Medvedev. I really liked Roddick 2003 and then Poly took full grip on tour, forehand retooled, and we suddenly have Pushdick.

 

[Meles]

I noticed Tsitsipas stats being absolute sh*te earlier.

He was 51% games won on a Slam semi run and his Montreal M1000 final run was very similar in that regard.

Thiem's game is just super capped cause he's an average server and returner. Same for Wawrinka.

Stefanos when he won some events in Fall had passable stats, but he's from proven in my eyes and a lot of this is Pouille like clutchness (back to back QFs at Wimby and US Open 2016). Hurkacz similar, but still great clutch play.

Thiem is first really good clay courter since Nadal. On the right hard court he can do well and big, big deal that he seems to be surviving servebots over the last year on hard courts. Thiem is having a late peak, we pretty much saw his best at IW and now the question is just how good will this Thiem be on clay? As Federe progresses at Miami, the pressure for Thiem to make SF or better at Monte Carlo grows.

Serve is a huge deal with Thiem and Wawa needing the hot hand to beat the best off clay. They both have good return games, but not even as good as Federer. Clay will be interesting for Diesel as well since this is probably his last year of potential relevance on the surface.

 

[Meles]

Superb stuff (as always)!

So how do Fed and Djoker's peak numbers compare?

Also, from this, it seems hard to see Djokovic losing much on HC without some major flukes. How did Kohlschreiber happen?

Kohly happened because Djoko took two months off; you just can't do that and be at your very best. Djoko looking betterer and betterer at Miami this week so maybe he'll be the force on clay expected after his recent Auz Open triumph.

 

[Fedeonic]

Thiem is first really good clay courter since Nadal. On the right hard court he can do well and big, big deal that he seems to be surviving servebots over the last year on hard courts. Thiem is having a late peak, we pretty much saw his best at IW and now the question is just how good will this Thiem be on clay? As Federe progresses at Miami, the pressure for Thiem to make SF or better at Monte Carlo grows.

Since what I've heard, Nadal may even skip Madrid to be well rested for Rome-RG. So Thiem maybe finally can win Madrid.
What will be Thiem's calendar for the clay season?

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Nadl

 

[Deleted member 763024]

Roger’s return numbers are bad and match the eye test from what we’ve been seeing from him mid-2018 onwards.

Could it be a reaction time issue as he’s aging?

 

[Fiero425]

Kohly happened because Djoko took two months off; you just can't do that and be at your very best. Djoko looking betterer and betterer at Miami this week so maybe he'll be the force on clay expected after his recent Auz Open triumph.

Well he's all of a sudden not looking too sharp against RBA in the 4th round! In the 3rd, they've traded breaks and Nole's just dropped his again; down a break 2-5!

 

[jacob22]

More garbage statistics

 

[Meles]

Since what I've heard, Nadal may even skip Madrid to be well rested for Rome-RG. So Thiem maybe finally can win Madrid.
What will be Thiem's calendar for the clay season?

Lyon last year was due to bad form coming into RG from ankle fracture at IW. So this year is MC, Barcelona, Madrid, and Rome. Nadal should skip Rome or Madrid since back to back.

 

[Meles]

More garbage statistics

 

[Meles]

Well he's all of a sudden not looking too sharp against RBA in the 4th round! In the 3rd, they've traded breaks and Nole's just dropped his again; down a break 2-5!

 

[timnz]

I was around for both and a Mecir fan. What took Miloslav down?

Bad back. He was one of the most talented guys ever.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Can you give us stats on Coric, Thiem, Tsitsipas?

 

[Meles]

Can you give us stats on Coric, Thiem, Tsitsipas?

I've talked about Tsitsipas and Thiem really as much as I can. The big drag on Tsits is he's only winning 34.5% of return points and that's just not good enough to be a long term heavy on the surface. I'm sure he'll improve, but we are talking markedly worse returning than Shapo which I've discussed. Tsitsipas a lovely player, but he's over performing right now. He himself has said he was physically on fumes coming into Dubai and still made final. Needless to say can't wait to see his match with Shapo tonight in Miami.

For Coric, Tsits, and Shapo let me see if I can eyeball their stats....In Miami, Tsits a strong, strong 56%+ points won, winning close to 43% of return points so very positive for two matches. Shapo 54% on points and 39% on return; nothing wrong with that. Coric... under 50% in his first match, return over 40% which is fine. Points won 54%. They all three look good and form is building especially for Coric. Shapo had serve woes last year and he's doing quite nicely on that department....70.0% against Evans and 68.7% against the strong returning Rublev. Shapo's serve game got derailed when they changed his form after Wimbledon last year, but looks like its really starting to pay off as he was 67.7% on serve points won coming into Miami. For his height if Shapo could get to 70% serve points won long term that would be Federe level and quite an achievement for his height. Return gets a bit better and he's kind of a weak return Federe by the stats.

Might as well talk Rublev who is finally finding some form coming into clay instead of a fractured back...the return is strong again for the year at 40.8% (very nice). Rublev has gone from a crushingly low 44.3% of 2nd serve points won on hard courts in 2018 to a quite respectable 52.3% in 2019. This is a huge jump and I almost don't believe the 2018 number from tennis abstract as its quite low...it is suspect as missing Doha final with Monfils. Ultimate Tennis just uses ATP level matches and no Davis Cup and it had him around 49% 2nd serve won for 2018 hard which is still pitiful and just a huge jump so far in 2019 that bodes well for Rublev. He'll be very interesting on clay to say the least.

Might as well gander at FAA again and talk about his clay.... Qualy run in Miami has really boosted his numbers to a rather staggeringly good 53.0% hard court points won for the year. 53.5% at a slam can win one in a very weak year. He's jumped from 52% so it appears Miami numbers included in all these season numbers I'm quoting in this post. Felix only 51% points won on South American clay despite some good results and pretty weak on serve which is a surprise given he had 28 aces in his two match wins in Sao Paulo. Similar ace percentage to Fed career on clay which is pretty amazing.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

I've talked about Tsitsipas and Thiem really as much as I can. The big drag on Tsits is he's only winning 34.5% of return points and that's just not good enough to be a long term heavy on the surface. I'm sure he'll improve, but we are talking markedly worse returning than Shapo which I've discussed. Tsitsipas a lovely player, but he's over performing right now. He himself has said he was physically on fumes coming into Dubai and still made final. Needless to say can't wait to see his match with Shapo tonight in Miami.

For Coric, Tsits, and Shapo let me see if I can eyeball their stats....In Miami, Tsits a strong, strong 56%+ points won, winning close to 43% of return points so very positive for two matches. Shapo 54% on points and 39% on return; nothing wrong with that. Coric... under 50% in his first match, return over 40% which is fine. Points won 54%. They all three look good and form is building especially for Coric. Shapo had serve woes last year and he's doing quite nicely on that department....70.0% against Evans and 68.7% against the strong returning Rublev. Shapo's serve game got derailed when they changed his form after Wimbledon last year, but looks like its really starting to pay off as he was 67.7% on serve points won coming into Miami. For his height if Shapo could get to 70% serve points won long term that would be Federe level and quite an achievement for his height. Return gets a bit better and he's kind of a weak return Federe by the stats.

Might as well talk Rublev who is finally finding some form coming into clay instead of a fractured back...the return is strong again for the year at 40.8% (very nice). Rublev has gone from a crushingly low 44.3% of 2nd serve points won on hard courts in 2018 to a quite respectable 52.3% in 2019. This is a huge jump and I almost don't believe the 2018 number from tennis abstract as its quite low...it is suspect as missing Doha final with Monfils. Ultimate Tennis just uses ATP level matches and no Davis Cup and it had him around 49% 2nd serve won for 2018 hard which is still pitiful and just a huge jump so far in 2019 that bodes well for Rublev. He'll be very interesting on clay to say the least.

Might as well gander at FAA again and talk about his clay.... Qualy run in Miami has really boosted his numbers to a rather staggeringly good 53.0% hard court points won for the year. 53.5% at a slam can win one in a very weak year. He's jumped from 52% so it appears Miami numbers included in all these season numbers I'm quoting in this post. Felix only 51% points won on South American clay despite some good results and pretty weak on serve which is a surprise given he had 28 aces in his two match wins in Sao Paulo. Similar ace percentage to Fed career on clay which is pretty amazing.

So do you foresee a new Big 3 situation emerging in the next few years or a committee of #NextGen guys taking turns winning big titles?

 

[Meles]

So do you foresee a new Big 3 situation emerging in the next few years or a committee of #NextGen guys taking turns winning big titles?

Its a bit hard to call. The NextGen has greatly strengthened the top 40 over the last year, but hard to say when you're talking about players age 18-21 (Rublev). Coric I'll say is not going to be elite, but could see him snagging RG or US Open down the line. Don't see Rublev as elite. Tiafoe coming on strong this year so he may be the hardest of all as still relatively young. Shapo, FAA, and Tsits will be elite without doubt, but I'd say Felix is the only potential GOAT that could displace Federe and compete with Big 3 type success.

 

[Bobby Jr]

These numbers are not even really interesting. They're just a collection of stats at an arbitrary point in the year which has the effect of unevenly biasing the numbers.

For example, Federer typically does his best on hard courts in the 2nd half of the year, whereas Nadal doesn't. This is down to court speeds as well as the varying levels of attrition that happens the longer the year goes on - exhaustion, injury etc. Additionally, lower ranked up and comers are freshest early in the year and most motivated to make hay and grab some points. The older guys view the season more holistically with targets for the whole year so, again, this tends to increase the variance of results (based on relative rankings/level of play) earlier in the year.

 

[tudwell]

What will be Thiem's calendar for the clay season?

I found it: https://www.atptour.com/en/tournaments