Has Alcaraz peaked already

How will Alcaraz progress?

  • He is just having a hard period, will come back to a whole new level

    Votes: 35 59.3%

  • We have already seen his best level, but he will be back and win more titles

    Votes: 18 30.5%

  • His game has been figured and and will struggle for a long time now

    Votes: 1 1.7%

  • He is essentially done

    Votes: 5 8.5%
  • Total voters
    59
InsideOut900

InsideOut900

Legend
After more than half a year since his Wimbledon win, with the loss today we can safely say he is still slumping heavy time.

To me he will clearly be back, especially since the IW-Wimbledon stretch is his best part of the season.

But the more he losses the more predictable his game is made to look, his patterns of play have been figured out more and more and if someone can match him blow for blow, Carlos has the tendancy to show real mental weakness and go on error spraying stretches.

The question is, does he have it in him to go past all the adversity and show something we haven't seen from him so far? Most people don't peak at 20/21, but he is about as physically strong as he will get and the technical aspect of his game hasn't improved at all since his early 2022 days, while most players gradually get better until around 23-25.

And on top of that he isn't like Zverev, who had the game, but not the mental to win BO5 Slams. He is already a 2 times winner, but plays like someone who struggles to handle the pressure of those tight moments since his last big win.
 
I don't think so, way too early to say that. He's still clearly got the absolute top level somewhere in there but the missing link is in point construction in some of these matches.
It's a case of getting it together and carefully crafting Plan A, B, C for every match. Would be helpful to have a more constant and active presence in his box throughout the Slam tournaments.
 
None can answer that question for certain. We need to see how his career develops first but there is no doubt that he'll dominate the tour in the future.

I also don't think he's in a slump. Zed played at high level today and would have beaten anyone.

Karl will be winning again in a couple of weeks and he's got RG in the bag. None stopping him there this year.
 
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This is probably going to look similar to when Nadal was struggling in 2006

I think he is 20. He is making huge mistakes but at that age almost every single player did.

What Carlos showed in match today is he has good fighting spirit. He has not played after ATP finals. The previous rounds he did put on a show.

If we say he has peaked, it probably is very early to say. He has the desire. And physical gifts. He needs to improve many areas of the game to win AO but maybe by the time clay season comes he will become unbeatable.
 
Krish872007 said:
I don't think so, way too early to say that. He's still clearly got the absolute top level somewhere in there but the missing link is in point construction in some of these matches.
It's a case of getting it together and carefully crafting Plan A, B, C for every match. Would be helpful to have a more constant and active presence in his box throughout the Slam tournaments.
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He needs to stop thinking about Djokovic. Even when Novak was the singular biggest threat to Fedal, they still took it one match at a time.
 
InsideOut900 said:
After more than half a year since his Wimbledon win, with the loss today we can safely say he is still slumping heavy time.

To me he will clearly be back, especially since the IW-Wimbledon stretch is his best part of the season.

But the more he losses the more predictable his game is made to look, his patterns of play have been figured out more and more and if someone can match him blow for blow, Carlos has the tendancy to show real mental weakness and go on error spraying stretches.

The question is, does he have it in him to go past all the adversity and show something we haven't seen from him so far? Most people don't peak at 20/21, but he is about as physically strong as he will get and the technical aspect of his game hasn't improved at all since his early 2022 days, while most players gradually get better until around 23-25.

And on top of that he isn't like Zverev, who had the game, but not the mental to win BO5 Slams. He is already a 2 times winner, but plays like someone who struggles to handle the pressure of those tight moments since his last big win.
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On hard courts maybe. but Alcarez will start to dominate the game on Red clay courts now and he will make most of his slam wins on clay from this point on. Rafa is pretty much retired and Novak's time is all but limited. With those guys out of the way, there is noone else that can challenge him on red clay courts
 
Nostradamus said:
On hard courts maybe. but Alcarez will start to dominate the game on Red clay courts now and he will make most of his slam wins on clay from this point on. Rafa is pretty much retired and Novak's time is all but limited. With those guys out of the way, there is noone else that can challenge him on red clay courts
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Sad

I will go away from Alcaraz camp then.
 
Even in today's match in the last 2 sets there were moments he looked like the old Alcaraz but he is def in a relative slump now.
 
ADuck said:
Anyone with basic tennis IQ can see he's not playing optimally. The main thing he needs to do is work on the tactical side of his game and he'll be formidable. Perhaps he should look to his idol Nadal instead of racking up unforced errors with stupid reckless shots.
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Tactical side or technical side of the game?

I think his lack of repeatable clean hitting and limited technique on both wings informs his poor reckless shots. That’s the worrisome part.

It’s not like he’s trying to hit big winners on a lot of these misses. On some, yes, but on a lot more it’s just really poor misses for no reason.
 
Kralingen said:
Tactical side or technical side of the game?

I think his lack of repeatable clean hitting and limited technique on both wings informs his poor reckless shots. That’s the worrisome part.

It’s not like he’s trying to hit big winners on a lot of these misses. On some, yes, but on a lot more it’s just really poor misses for no reason.
Click to expand...
It's mostly tactical imo. There's a reason he was down 6-1 6-2 in just an hours play. To me it looks like when he's losing, his default strategy is just trying to outhit his opponent like a ball basher (happened also vs Medvedev) which just results in more UE's. Instead he should just be trying to extend the points, mixing up the pace, playing more angles. Even if it results in him losing a set, it at least buys him time to find some range on his shots and improve as the match goes on. He needs to be more willing to rely on his wheels when the shots aren't there.
 
ADuck said:
It's mostly tactical imo. There's a reason he was down 6-1 6-2 in just an hours play. To me it looks like when he's losing, his default strategy is just trying to outhit his opponent like a ball basher (happened also vs Medvedev) which just results in more UE's. Instead he should just be trying to extend the points, mixing up the pace, playing more angles. Even if it results in him losing a set, it at least buys him time to find some range on his shots and improve as the match goes on. He needs to be more willing to rely on his wheels when the shots aren't there.
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Do you think Ferrero’s tactics are telling him to keep spraying rally balls though? I’m sure his coaches are well aware of his issues keeping the ball in play. To me, it speaks to his inconsistent technique.
 
Kralingen said:
Do you think Ferrero’s tactics are telling him to keep spraying rally balls though? I’m sure his coaches are well aware of his issues keeping the ball in play. To me, it speaks to his inconsistent technique.
Click to expand...
No idea. Interestingly Ferrero wasn't there tonight and his coaches box looked very muted/unanimated the entire match. Didn't look they were helping him at all.

Technique might also be an issue, but I'm mostly blaming tactics because I've seen what Alcaraz is capable of when he commits to playing a match without devolving into this strategy. He has his moments when he's playing well and other moments when he's not and these events seem independent of his technique to me. Presumably his technique doesn't vary wildly match to match and hasn't changed much over the course of the past 2 years no?
 
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Kralingen said:
Tactical side or technical side of the game?

I think his lack of repeatable clean hitting and limited technique on both wings informs his poor reckless shots. That’s the worrisome part.

It’s not like he’s trying to hit big winners on a lot of these misses. On some, yes, but on a lot more it’s just really poor misses for no reason.
Click to expand...

this is correct. its more technical than tactical.
 
InsideOut900 said:
After more than half a year since his Wimbledon win, with the loss today we can safely say he is still slumping heavy time.

To me he will clearly be back, especially since the IW-Wimbledon stretch is his best part of the season.

But the more he losses the more predictable his game is made to look, his patterns of play have been figured out more and more and if someone can match him blow for blow, Carlos has the tendancy to show real mental weakness and go on error spraying stretches.

The question is, does he have it in him to go past all the adversity and show something we haven't seen from him so far? Most people don't peak at 20/21, but he is about as physically strong as he will get and the technical aspect of his game hasn't improved at all since his early 2022 days, while most players gradually get better until around 23-25.

And on top of that he isn't like Zverev, who had the game, but not the mental to win BO5 Slams. He is already a 2 times winner, but plays like someone who struggles to handle the pressure of those tight moments since his last big win.
Click to expand...

Of course he has peaked.

He’s already 20.
 
Just improved his AO presence again year-over-year, so gained points and will continue to defend upcoming points and titles. Could defend BA as a 250 tune up, then Indian Wells he has those points to defend, but should be good. Maybe pic up Miami as a trade off or addition. Then, clay time.

Solid start to the year.
 
InsideOut900 said:
After more than half a year since his Wimbledon win, with the loss today we can safely say he is still slumping heavy time.

To me he will clearly be back, especially since the IW-Wimbledon stretch is his best part of the season.

But the more he losses the more predictable his game is made to look, his patterns of play have been figured out more and more and if someone can match him blow for blow, Carlos has the tendancy to show real mental weakness and go on error spraying stretches.

The question is, does he have it in him to go past all the adversity and show something we haven't seen from him so far? Most people don't peak at 20/21, but he is about as physically strong as he will get and the technical aspect of his game hasn't improved at all since his early 2022 days, while most players gradually get better until around 23-25.

And on top of that he isn't like Zverev, who had the game, but not the mental to win BO5 Slams. He is already a 2 times winner, but plays like someone who struggles to handle the pressure of those tight moments since his last big win.
Click to expand...
It is probably safe to say he hasn't peaked overall. But his eventual peak might not be as high as some people think. He has disadvantage in serve and baseline rally due to his limitations in height and reach. His peak could be a Hewitt on steroid or somewhere higher. We'll see.
 
Mainad said:
There may well be an element of figuring out his game amongst the top guys and he probably needs to develop new tactics to keep challenging them successfully?
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I guess his serve patterns and his dropshots can be figured out by the tour now.

But apart from that players have to beat him by playing better. I still see no weakness. But serve isn't strong enough in this era where number 1 Djokovic is becoming a servebot
Sinner is good server
Medvedev is great server.
 
a major QF and a Semi, yeah real washed up... he lost to zverev and Medvedev in slams. no real slouches. if he lost to some schmucks like 80 ranked players in the first or second round yeah there's cause for concern. the dude is only 20. give him time to readjust, adapt and keep growing and learning as a player. he accomplished more at age 20 than like 99.9999999999999% of players have done in their career. maybe he kind of just exists like Hewitt ended up doing but I mean Carlos probably has another 6 or so slams in him.
 
Hitting big and going for winners from anywhere on the court is not sustainable physically or mentally. He plays arrogant like he can blow anyone off the court. I found another curious footnote to today's match...I notice his grunting was all but absent when he was getting manhandled. Then it magically reappeared during the 3rd and 4th set. All the fist pumping and celebrations started being revived, as well. I think Carlos will win 4-6 more Grand Slam titles at least but I see physical problems in his future....as well as mental ones. This was evident today...
 
mike danny said:
All I know is that Fred would've loved to play young Raz as opposed to young Rafa. Can't believe there are some people here who shamelessly said Raz would've been a tough match-up for Fed like Nadal was.
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Rafa at that age never made it to a hard court semis. And in his first hard court QF he lost to Youzhni with a bagel in the 4th and in his second one he got straight setted by Gonzalez lol
 
I dont like the term "peaked". Its like an investment performance curve. You never sell at the top or buy at the bottom...its a question of what you do against the rest of the market. I dont think that Carlos is going anywhere and will be a factor in all the slams moving forward. I do think Daniil, Jannik and Sacha will be on the short list of who to beat, as well. Oh...and Novak doesnt appear to be going anywhere soon...which means Carlos is not going to have a cakewalk if he wants to win the most meaningful titles.
 
mike danny said:
Rafa didn't have 3 slams because of Federer.
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FXLThSZ.jpeg


Which Slam(s) would Nadal have won before 2007 without Fed? And don't say 2006 Wim
 
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