Has Alcaraz peaked already

How will Alcaraz progress?

  • He is just having a hard period, will come back to a whole new level

    Votes: 35 59.3%

  • We have already seen his best level, but he will be back and win more titles

    Votes: 18 30.5%

  • His game has been figured and and will struggle for a long time now

    Votes: 1 1.7%

  • He is essentially done

    Votes: 5 8.5%
  • Total voters
    59
Alcaraz is essentially done winning slams. He might win smaller titles but not slams. His freefall will be worse than Hewitt's, because of his very physical style of tennis.
 
djokovic the conqueror said:
Alcaraz is essentially done winning slams. He might win smaller titles but not slams. His freefall will be worse than Hewitt's, because of his very physical style of tennis.
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nah, unless sinner/rune turn into peak fedalnovic. or JC Shang turns into a tennis God. or earth's mightiest warrior keeps doing what he is doing for the next 10 years
 
ActualTennisPlayer said:
Rafa at that age never made it to a hard court semis. And in his first hard court QF he lost to Youzhni with a bagel in the 4th and in his second one he got straight setted by Gonzalez lol
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This is true, but Rafa was also historically dominant on clay to an almost ridiculous degree, while Raz has suffered disappointing losses on that surface. I have a lot of money on him for RG ‘24 and think he needs to make that surface his own. If he loses again there then some big questions need to be asked.
 
Kralingen said:
This is true, but Rafa was also historically dominant on clay to an almost ridiculous degree, while Raz has suffered disappointing losses on that surface. I have a lot of money on him for RG ‘24 and think he needs to make that surface his own. If he loses again there then some big questions need to be asked.
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No doubt Rafa is a legend on clay and clearly better than Raz. But hard (two out of four slams) go to Raz and I give him Wimbledon too
 
jm1980 said:
FXLThSZ.jpeg


Which Slam(s) would Nadal have won before 2007 without Fed? And don't say 2006 Wim
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Why not? LOL.
 
Alcaraz is just 20 so there's time for improvement. His 2023 wimby win over Djokovic was huge - the first player outside the big 4 to win wimby since 2002. But his struggles against med, zverev, sinner and not winning a title since wimby 2023 has to be a concern.
 
I can understand people's disappointments. There finally is a guy who can make things relatively interesting against Djokovic and now with his slump it was very short-lived.
 
ActualTennisPlayer said:
No doubt Rafa is a legend on clay and clearly better than Raz. But hard (two out of four slams) go to Raz and I give him Wimbledon too
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I’m not really that interested in the historical comparison, I’m interested in seeing the most talented player in 15 years actually play like it. His performance vs Zverev was not good enough, by any standard, and I don’t think his current style of play with such little attention to detail and questionable precision is an optimal one long term. He misses about 20% more than the other top guys do, and it isn’t just going for too much, it’s about his technique as well.

The downside of being so error prone has knock on effects. Psychologically and physically, when you give away SO many free points it relaxes your opponent and helps them stay solid. Yes, Zverev served from a tree like 85% this match, but there’s a reason he doesn’t do that against Medvedev or Djokovic. They tire him out in long rallies, get more balls back in play, work him, make him feel pressure that if he doesn’t hit his spot the ball is coming back. Carlos was spraying so much on return that Z had full deep breaths for 20-30 seconds to prepare for each serve and stay in rhythm. That stuff matters. Carlos can outhit most guys but he needs to work on playing the percentages and not missing so much on normal rally balls.

There are changes that must be made and growth that must happen.
 
Alcaraz has a big problem against big servers that can win points easily, while his(Alcaraz) first serve is completely sh1t.
 
nope, he is right on track to win the 30 GS , as many advocates predicted. How can he not? He is the best of the big 3.
 
The last several slam losses he's always talked about not being able to handle pressure. His coaching team needs to set him up better for these matches. Maybe he needs a becker/lendl type of coach added to his team.
 
Kralingen said:
I’m not really that interested in the historical comparison, I’m interested in seeing the most talented player in 15 years actually play like it. His performance vs Zverev was not good enough, by any standard, and I don’t think his current style of play with such little attention to detail and questionable precision is an optimal one long term. He misses about 20% more than the other top guys do, and it isn’t just going for too much, it’s about his technique as well.

The downside of being so error prone has knock on effects. Psychologically and physically, when you give away SO many free points it relaxes your opponent and helps them stay solid. Yes, Zverev served from a tree like 85% this match, but there’s a reason he doesn’t do that against Medvedev or Djokovic. They tire him out in long rallies, get more balls back in play, work him, make him feel pressure that if he doesn’t hit his spot the ball is coming back. Carlos was spraying so much on return that Z had full deep breaths for 20-30 seconds to prepare for each serve and stay in rhythm. That stuff matters. Carlos can outhit most guys but he needs to work on playing the percentages and not missing so much on normal rally balls.

There are changes that must be made and growth that must happen.
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We shouldn’t expect too much from a 20-year old kid. Most champions have a huge jump in quality when they are 22-24 and I expect Alcaraz to do the same.

He is fine for now and the best we have seen for his age in the modern era… but if he doesn’t make that jump between 22-24 then I’m concerned.
 
Alcaraz hasn’t figured out that he has a big target on his back as a top 2 player with two majors and has to bring his intensity in every match. Other players are just scared enough about him where they are going to try and redline - sometimes they will execute well enough (like Zverev with 85% first serves) and earn his scalp. He hasn’t elevated his game enough in the last year where other top players are scared enough to think they can’t beat him at all even if they redline for long stretches. Carlos has to learn to keep playing at a high level steadily when another player is redlining with the confidence that he can outlast them - instead he typically goes for too much and has UFE-spraying stretches.

He is probably going through the normal growing pains or learning path of a young player when the locker room knows your strengths. You have to keep improving for the players to continue to be scared of you. He may be on a 1-Slam per year rate for a couple of years before hopefully he matures and learns what it takes to dominate. On TTW, expectations were inflated with many expecting him to win 3 Slams per year and also thinking that only Djokovic can beat him.

Djokovic makes winning 3 Slams per year look easy (2011, 2015, 2021, 2023), but even he didn’t figure out how to do it for the first time till he was 24 - as was Nadal. Federer did it for the first time at 23.
 
ActualTennisPlayer said:
We shouldn’t expect too much from a 20-year old kid. Most champions have a huge jump in quality when they are 22-24 and I expect Alcaraz to do the same.

He is fine for now and the best we have seen for his age in the modern era… but if he doesn’t make that jump between 22-24 then I’m concerned.
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This is what I’m clinging to in spite of the loss. He’s only played the AO like 3 times and really only once as someone with any sort of expectation (losing in a 5th set TB to Berrettini in 22). He’s very raw for even a 20 year old in terms of not having played many matches.

But, that doesn’t mean that age can be blamed for everything.
 
People whipping out the hot takes. For the detractors: how consistent was Alcaraz at Djokovic's age? Calm your ****.

I guess I'm not saying anything new here, but you gotta see the big picture. In 2-3 years, Alcaraz will have a completely new body. Still built like a boy.
 
mike danny said:
I can understand people's disappointments. There finally is a guy who can make things relatively interesting against Djokovic and now with his slump it was very short-lived.
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Well you never know that it be Sinner that stops Djokovic now or Zverev/meddy. There is always another threat when one threat falls away for a bit. Sinner has sort taken alcaraz place as the new young threat for now.
 
mike danny said:
I can understand people's disappointments. There finally is a guy who can make things relatively interesting against Djokovic and now with his slump it was very short-lived.
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Last year the head to head was 3-1 to the 36 years old, and that includes an absolutely pathetic, embarrassing collapse in DO. That was never relatively interesting. Alcaraz is just as bad as the other young players.
 
He's entitled to a slump. Hardly anyone can say they accomplished as much as him at the age of 20. Whether he is going to become a victim of the excessive hype that spread around him, time will tell. I imagine Alcaraz will have his great periods again. He's top quality in many aspects on the court. But the rest of NextGens are clearly skilled enough themselves to earn their share.
 
TheAssassin said:
He's entitled to a slump. Hardly anyone can say they accomplished as much as him at the age of 20. Whether he is going to become a victim of the excessive hype that spread around him, time will tell. I imagine Alcaraz will have his great periods again. He's top quality in many aspects on the court. But the rest of NextGens are clearly skilled enough themselves to earn their share.
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A Djokovic fanboy hyping this joke of an era. How surprising.
 
StrongRule said:
Last year the head to head was 3-1 to the 36 years old, and that includes an absolutely pathetic, embarrassing collapse in DO. That was never relatively interesting. Alcaraz is just as bad as the other young players.
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Nah, Alcaraz by default is better than the rest of the younger players thanks to his Wimb win.
 
Alcaraz's biggest problem is that he doesn't have any surface to fall back on. There isn't a single place where you could say he's favored to win except probably Barcelona LOL.
 
Yes, it's time for Alcaraz to call it quits. At the ripe old age of 20, it's too late for him to improve anything. It's best that he retire now and become the coach of Nadal's son.
 
Nostradamus said:
On hard courts maybe. but Alcarez will start to dominate the game on Red clay courts now and he will make most of his slam wins on clay from this point on. Rafa is pretty much retired and Novak's time is all but limited. With those guys out of the way, there is noone else that can challenge him on red clay courts
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Why exactly will the tiny one dominate clay?
 
The Blond Blur said:
This is just a flat out dumb statement. RAFA is literally the only man to beat Joker in multiple HC GS Fs. He has the DCGS, the NA summer schlem, and an Olympic gold medal on HC…where he beat a prime level Joker.
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And this much success is not what we thought from Alcaraz. He talks about becoming the GOAT. The bar is very high. He can't be another Nadal and be the GOAT. Will need to turn up on hc.

You just put down all titles Nadal won but the count of them matters as well. He won them in his 20 year career.
 
Kralingen said:
Do you think Ferrero’s tactics are telling him to keep spraying rally balls though? I’m sure his coaches are well aware of his issues keeping the ball in play. To me, it speaks to his inconsistent technique.
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Best FH Of All Time /sarc
 
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ActualTennisPlayer said:
We shouldn’t expect too much from a 20-year old kid. Most champions have a huge jump in quality when they are 22-24 and I expect Alcaraz to do the same.

He is fine for now and the best we have seen for his age in the modern era… but if he doesn’t make that jump between 22-24 then I’m concerned.
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Exactly. If he’s still suffering these same kinds of losses at 25, then I’ll be worried that he can’t or won’t make the necessary adjustments to continue leveling up. If he’s still struggling a year from now… well, so what? He’s young and still figuring out his game and just life on the tour in general. I’d love to see him figure things out faster, but however long it ends up taking, I think he is on the path to being the next dominant number one.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
And this much success is not what we thought from Alcaraz. He talks about becoming the GOAT. The bar is very high. He can't be another Nadal and be the GOAT. Will need to turn up on hc.

You just put down all titles Nadal won but the count of them matters as well. He won them in his 20 year career.
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Dude idk what you thought of him but I never thought he’d be the GOAT. I don’t think he’ll have a Big 3 level resume either. There’s literally no reason to bring up RAFA here. Besides he was so far ahead on clay that it more than made up for the difference in ability on HC vs Fedovic. Tiny Carl doesn’t have that advantage. He’s really good on all surfaces, but he’s not so far ahead of everyone else on a particular surface that he can dominate the field.

Edit
 
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The Blond Blur said:
Dude idk what you thought of him but I never thought he’d be the GOAT. I don’t think he’ll have a Big 3 level resume either. There’s literally no reason to bring up RAFA here. Besides he was so far ahead on clay that it more than made up for the difference in ability in HC vs Fedovic. Tiny Carl doesn’t have that advantage. He’s really good on all surfaces, but he’s so far ahead of everyone else on a particular surface that he can dominate the field.
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May I assume you meant "not so far ahead.." ?
 
The Blond Blur said:
Dude idk what you thought of him but I never thought he’d be the GOAT. I don’t think he’ll have a Big 3 level resume either. There’s literally no reason to bring up RAFA here. Besides he was so far ahead on clay that it more than made up for the difference in ability in HC vs Fedovic. Tiny Carl doesn’t have that advantage. He’s really good on all surfaces, but he’s so far ahead of everyone else on a particular surface that he can dominate the field.
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You are right on second part.

Nadal is too far ahead on clay.

On first part, alcaraz himself said he wants to be the greatest.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
You are right on second part.

Nadal is too far ahead on clay.

On first part, alcaraz himself said he wants to be the greatest.
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That’s fine but he also keeps saying that he wants to play Joker in the F and he keeps tripping up against lesser players before the F. No sense in talking about a player all the time if you can’t reach him. He’s a great player and he’ll be an ATG but with his frame and game limitations I see him topping out in the 10-12 range. Which is nothing to sneeze at ofc.
 
The Blond Blur said:
That’s fine but he also keeps saying that he wants to play Joker in the F and he keeps tripping up against lesser players before the F. No sense in talking about a player all the time if you can’t reach him. He’s a great player and he’ll be an ATG but with his frame and game limitations I see him topping out in the 10-12 range. Which is nothing to sneeze at ofc.
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Out of 10 if 6 are RG I won't be there to support him for long. He needs to right the ship now. I know his height limits him on HC. But still.
 
Single digits in Majors for the tiny one, I think. New players will come along, too- are already. The recent Safiullin Smackdown was worthy of note (other players going "oh.. yeah.. like that").
 
Vincent-C said:
Single digits in Majors for the tiny one, I think. New players will come along, too- are already. The Safiullin Smackdown was worth of note.
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I didn't believe he will be single digit slam owner and I still don't believe so. But I am sad that he will skew his entire career towards clay.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
I didn't believe he will be single digit slam owner and I still don't believe so. But I am sad that he will skew his entire career towards clay.
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Predictions can be fun! We'll see how it goes- and please remember I picked the little guy as a losing quarterfinalist here, pre-tournament.

"I wanna play Djokovic!" Sorry, gotta get there.
 
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nolefam_2024 said:
Out of 10 if 6 are RG I won't be there to support him for long. He needs to right the ship now. I know his height limits him on HC. But still.
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That just sounds like bandwagoning to me but ok. His height and overall build are going to be an issue on all surfaces. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an ATG, but GOAT is too many bridges too far imo. There’s also no point in talking about how many of his schlems are going to be compromised of RGs when he hasn’t even
 
The Blond Blur said:
That just sounds like bandwagoning to me but ok. His height and overall build are going to be an issue on all surfaces. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an ATG, but GOAT is too many bridges too far imo. There’s also no point in talking about how many of his schlems are going to be compromised of RGs when he hasn’t even
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He is strong contender for this season. He has won more titles on clay than on hard courts already and sinner had 20 more wins on hc in 2023 and now he is pulling apart. It's not hard to see.
 
mike danny said:
All I know is that Fred would've loved to play young Raz as opposed to young Rafa. Can't believe there are some people here who shamelessly said Raz would've been a tough match-up for Fed like Nadal was.
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I agree. Raz is not at the same level as Rafa of same age, or even Djoko. However, what he and Sinner are bringing is bigger and better than any youngsters (U23) we’ve seen since Delpo in 2009. It’s not fair on them we keep comparing these youngsters to the Big 3…those are a breed apart, and may never be equaled in our lifetimes.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
He is strong contender for this season. He has won more titles on clay than on hard courts already and sinner had 20 more wins on hc in 2023 and now he is pulling apart. It's not hard to see.
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What does that have to do with how many of his schlems come from RG? He’s always had more titles on clay than on the other surfaces. That’s why it’s annoying as a fan to see him continue to falter on the biggest stage on the surface he’s had the most success on. Becoming Zedrot’s first ever GS top 10 win and cramping up in the SF vs Joker are hard to overlook.
 
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