Has Federer ever been a bigger Underdog than now?

[Nadalgaenger]

The 2016 SF against Djokovic seems to me significant for marking Fed's biggest Underdog status since he won his first slams.

Fed was never an underdog at the AO against Djokovic in their two prior meetings there. In 2011, remember, Federer was the defending champ and Novak hadn't won a slam in 3 years.

At Wimbledon 2014, Federer was at least even odds, right? And in 2015, Fed went in playing better than Novak. At the USO 2014, Fed was an underdog, but not as much as tonight.

At the FO in 2005-2008 against Nadal, he was perhaps an underdog, but only a small one.

 

[helterskelter]

The 2016 SF against Djokovic seems to me significant for marking Fed's biggest Underdog status since he won his first slams.

Fed was never an underdog at the AO against Djokovic in their two prior meetings there. In 2011, remember, Federer was the defending champ and Novak hadn't won a slam in 3 years.

At Wimbledon 2014, Federer was at least even odds, right? And in 2015, Fed went in playing better than Novak. At the USO 2014, Fed was an underdog, but not as much as tonight.

At the FO in 2005-2008 against Nadal, he was perhaps an underdog, but only a small one.

He was massive underdog at Roland Garros 2008 against Nadal, all the more so given their form getting to the final.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

He was massive underdog at Roland Garros 2008 against Nadal, all the more so given their form getting to the final.

I disagree. Fed had played Nadal pretty well at Monte Carlo and Hamburg earlier in 2008. Many experts felt that he was on the cusp of knocking off Nadal.

I mean we tend to look back on the match and kind of laugh at how poor Fed's chances seemed, but that is only because of the demolition. Fed actually beat Nadal the next time they played on clay after this (Madrid 2009).

 

[BGod]

He was massive underdog at Roland Garros 2008 against Nadal, all the more so given their form getting to the final.

Show me. Nadal had pushed Federer harder in 2007 but you're acting like it was 2009. Federer was a bigger underdog in 2011.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Show me. Nadal had pushed Federer harder in 2007 but you're acting like it was 2009. Federer was a bigger underdog in 2011.

Disagree about 2011. Fed was an underdog, to be sure, but he had just beaten Novak and was playing some amazing tennis. He also played the 2011 FO final better than any other of his prior finals against Rafa. He really was an inch or so away from winning the first set 6-2 on a dropshot. That could have changed the match.

 

[BVSlam]

I was gonna say. How on earth was he only a small underdog at RG 2008? I think people even considered him the favourite in 2005 and 2006 due to his relevant slam/slam final experience compared to Rafa, but after those matches, not any more. And 2008 was the biggest example, where Fed played decently but inconsistently that tournament and Rafa was unplayable all the way up to the final, and it's on clay...the final confirmed it.

Although Djokovic is certainly the favourite here, that gap will never ever be as big as Fed-Rafa at RG 2008.

 

[BGod]

Disagree about 2011. Fed was an underdog, to be sure, but he had just beaten Novak and was playing some amazing tennis. He also played the 2011 FO final better than any other of his prior finals against Rafa. He really was an inch or so away from winning the first set 6-2 on a dropshot. That could have changed the match.

Federer's best performance was 2006. In 2011 despite his showing against Djokovic, the betting line wasn't good at all. I'm just telling you what the line was. Federer was being given 3-1 or worse.

 

[helterskelter]

I disagree. Fed had played Nadal pretty well at Monte Carlo and Hamburg earlier in 2008. Many experts felt that he was on the cusp of knocking off Nadal.

I mean we tend to look back on the match and kind of laugh at how poor Fed's chances seemed, but that is only because of the demolition. Fed actually beat Nadal the next time they played on clay after this (Madrid 2009).

I didn't expect it to be 6-1 6-3 6-0, but I definitely thought in advance that it might well be straight sets. The 2007 final wasn't encouraging, and Nadal was barely dropping games en route, while Federer struggled against Gonzalez and Monfils.

 

[tennisaddict]

I am thinking the odds are better than what he has had at FO in the past. And probably even at some of the recent AO

 

[helterskelter]

Show me. Nadal had pushed Federer harder in 2007 but you're acting like it was 2009. Federer was a bigger underdog in 2011.

I don't have the odds for past matches. Anyway, I don't think this question is just about the bookmakers' view. Another possible answer to the original question is before the AO semis in 2014. Although Nadal hadn't looked good against Nishikori or Dimitrov, while Federer had looked good against Tsonga and Murray, so I guess not. Perhaps one of the indoor matches against Djokovic in late 2013?

 

[Sysyphus]

Actually, Fed almost had the same odds before the 2011 RG semi

Also pretty comparable before the 2012 Wimby semi, although the odds were slightly kinder to him then. (1.48 for Novak then, 1.36 now).


Somewhat ridiculous in hindsight, Fed was given very live odds for AO14 semi and RG11 final, and was odds favorite in the 2012 AO semi.

 

[TommyA8X]

Actually, Fed almost had the same odds before the 2011 RG semi

Also pretty comparable before the 2012 Wimby semi, although the odds were slightly kinder to him then. (1.48 for Novak then, 1.36 now).


Somewhat ridiculous in hindsight, Fed was given very live odds for AO14 semi and RG11 final, and was odds favorite in the 2012 AO semi.

I loled so hard when I saw the odds for that match.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

Ridiculous question to ask. This isn't close to anything even resembling his most underdoggish of statuses. This Q is coming from a Nadal fan? What is your agenda here?

 

[metsman]

I loled so hard when I saw the odds for that match.

easy money

 

[Deleted member 688153]

In terms of odds I don't know, but in terms of actual hope of him winning I think this is a low point for sure.

 

[NEW_BORN]

I'm not certain but i would think Fed was a big underdog against Nadal prior to AO2014 Semi, given his form at the last few majors in 2013