Has Novak declined?

Krish0608

G.O.A.T.
Well it’s like comparing Peak Federer with 2017 Federer. 2017 Federer reinvented his game and took the field by storm, but it’s obvious that he had declined and his peak version would have feasted on the 2017 version without much problem. It’s the exact same situation with Djokovic. Not (m)any great players around to exploit the decline though.
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
Well it’s like comparing Peak Federer with 2017 Federer. 2017 Federer reinvented his game and took the field by storm, but it’s obvious that he had declined and his peak version would have feasted on the 2017 version without much problem. It’s the exact same situation with Djokovic. Not (m)any great players around to exploit the decline though.
What would a matchup between a young Simon and this veteran version of Djokovic be like in GS tournaments?
:unsure:
 

Azure

G.O.A.T.
Well it’s like comparing Peak Federer with 2017 Federer. 2017 Federer reinvented his game and took the field by storm, but it’s obvious that he had declined and his peak version would have feasted on the 2017 version without much problem. It’s the exact same situation with Djokovic. Not (m)any great players around to exploit the decline though.
Hmm while this is possible I am not denying that Federer’s brilliant serve and that super fast bazooka backhand would pose problems even for a young Federer. We underestimate how Federer literally blitzed through the field especially through the AO to the summer in 2017. That backhand was quick, aggressive and lethal. Atleast I believe the older Fed would definitely have made it competitive.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Hmm while this is possible I am not denying that Federer’s brilliant serve and that super fast bazooka backhand would pose problems even for a young Federer. We underestimate how Federer literally blitzed through the field especially through the AO to the summer in 2017. That backhand was quick, aggressive and lethal. Atleast I believe the older Fed would definitely have made it competitive.
Federer reached Elo of over 2450, first time since beginning of 2008. He was at super high level.
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
Who said anything about being 2x better? This is professional tennis. Come on, now. By saying he'd beat him soundly most of the time, I'm saying he's something like 1.05x better.

No, that's not soundly beating them. Soundly beating someone is beating them in 3. How many times did Novak win in 3 against Roger at SW19?
 

daggerman

Hall of Fame
No, that's not soundly beating them. Soundly beating someone is beating them in 3. How many times did Novak win in 3 against Roger at SW19?

Whether being 1.05x better than somebody "counts" or doesn't count as "soundly beating them" is irrelevant, man. The point: tennis is a game of slim margins, Djokovic and Federer in general are basically evenly matched, Djokovic is probably a little better, the 2015 Wimbledon final is probably most representative of how matches at Wimbledon between 2023 Djokovic and 2019 Federer would usually go, 2023 Djokovic's serve is considerably better than the 2019 version, etc. etc.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
And that's why it's not a good choice to replace the current ranking system although it is better than UTR.
Not talking about replacing. ATP Ranking makes most sense.

Elo gives more understanding about dominance to me. Because their might be 100 pts difference between number 1 and 2 in Elo but 3000 pts difference. Elo gives value to wins and losses more vs harder and easier opponents too.
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
Whether being 1.05x better than somebody "counts" or doesn't count as "soundly beating them" is irrelevant, man. The point: tennis is a game of slim margins, Djokovic and Federer in general are basically evenly matched, Djokovic is probably a little better, the 2015 Wimbledon final is probably most representative of how matches at Wimbledon between 2023 Djokovic and 2019 Federer would usually go, 2023 Djokovic's serve is considerably better than the 2019 version, etc. etc.

It does to you. You are talking about Djokovic soundly beating someone in the final of Wimbledon. That's not what happened in either of these matches. To say, "hypothetically" that he would is not based on any sound logic. He didn't beat Carlitos at all, and he didn't beat Fed soundly in 2019. Even in 2015 it was a 4-set affair. And that match is not representative of their career h2h at SW19.

I think you were being sloppy by using the words "soundly beating".
 

daggerman

Hall of Fame
It does to you. You are talking about Djokovic soundly beating someone in the final of Wimbledon. That's not what happened in either of these matches. To say, "hypothetically" that he would is not based on any sound logic. He didn't beat Carlitos at all, and he didn't beat Fed soundly in 2019. Even in 2015 it was a 4-set affair. And that match is not representative of their career h2h at SW19.

I think you were being sloppy by using the words "soundly beating".

The 2015 match was a sound victory, and I think that's representative of how most of the matches between 2023 Novak and 2019 Fed would go. There's nothing "sloppy" about that. You either agree or disagree.
 

jackson vile

G.O.A.T.
Monfils has won far more titles in the latter half of his career than in the first half of his career.
Perfect, how many this year, and is it more than pervious years? If not, why can’t he win more in a supposed easy era?

Looks like he’s always won one title…

Where Novak’s other peers at?
 
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Krish0608

G.O.A.T.
Hmm while this is possible I am not denying that Federer’s brilliant serve and that super fast bazooka backhand would pose problems even for a young Federer. We underestimate how Federer literally blitzed through the field especially through the AO to the summer in 2017. That backhand was quick, aggressive and lethal. Atleast I believe the older Fed would definitely have made it competitive.
I don't know. I honestly don't think Roger 2017 would have any chance against his 2005-06 versions. The gap in movement and quickness is just way too big to overcome. 2006 Fed had a much better serve + 1 combo, much better slice and way better lateral movement . These would be enough to offset whatever "improvements" 2017 Fed made to his topspin BH IMO.
 

SonnyT

Legend
Most quarterbacks begin their downhill during the mid-30's. But the most successful of them all, Tom Brady, played well until he was 45.

Brady's friend, Novak Djokovic, might experience a similar trajectory. Brady & Djokovic share the same dietician.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
When you've just dismissed the #2 and #4 NextGenners in straight sets back to back in the 2nd most prestigious tournament in tennis, I honestly don't see much of a decline!
 
Why does that bother you so much? Would you like or support Djokovic if he didn’t indulge in such magical thinking? You either like his tennis or you don’t. As long as he is not indulging in crimes just laugh it off and move on. As far as I can tell most Djokovic fans on here don’t take his advise on life and philosophy and just admire the guy as a tennis player.
Are you referring to the .001% who aren't compatriots?
 

Azure

G.O.A.T.
I don't know. I honestly don't think Roger 2017 would have any chance against his 2005-06 versions. The gap in movement and quickness is just way too big to overcome. 2006 Fed had a much better serve + 1 combo, much better slice and way better lateral movement . These would be enough to offset whatever "improvements" 2017 Fed made to his topspin BH IMO.
There is now way Federer in 2006 is going to get defeated…agree with that. Just that the older version wouldn’t be uncompetitive is my guess.
 

esvc

Semi-Pro
There is now way Federer in 2006 is going to get defeated…agree with that. Just that the older version wouldn’t be uncompetitive is my guess.
Murray beat Federer 7-5 6-4 in Cincinnati 2006 second round.
 
He has declined substantially in a few key areas, but wow he is certainly compensating well in other areas.

That serving performance in the ATP Final title match was Sampras-like.

The other interesting thing about Djokovic is that he was again covering his wide backhand better on the first ball than he had in some time, which besides the serve has been the most impressive thing for me from him during the indoor season.

But overall, yes the decline is very apparent. He is nowhere close to the Djokovic of 2019 or 2021, but his matchplay ability and energy management is still top notch, and his ability to shorten points is very good.

Servebots age very well in tennis because there is a level of efficiency and energy-saving hard wired into their game with the ability to create a lot of short service points.

The quality of Djokovic’s serve has actually been his most important future protection as he got older. Much more important than any other element of his game. And he deserves a lot of credit for cultivating that area of his game.
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
Perfect, how many this year, and is it more than pervious years? If not, why can’t he win more in a supposed easy era?

Looks like he’s always won one title…

Where Novak’s other peers at?

He has won more titles in the latter half of his career. That's my whole point. He wins more, in part, because this era is weaker.
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
The 2015 match was a sound victory, and I think that's representative of how most of the matches between 2023 Novak and 2019 Fed would go. There's nothing "sloppy" about that. You either agree or disagree.

It is sloppy. They haven't played ONE match at Wimbledon. He has not soundly beaten Federer at Wimbledon. The 2015 match was as close to it as it gets, and it was still 4 sets. "Soundly beating" someone is a run away. You don't run away with a match in 4 sets.
 

jackson vile

G.O.A.T.
He has won more titles in the latter half of his career. That's my whole point. He wins more, in part, because this era is weaker.
YearTitlesTournaments
20231Stockholm (Indoor/Hard)
20221Adelaide 1 (Outdoor/Hard)
20202Rotterdam (Indoor/Hard)
Montpellier (Indoor/Hard)
20191Rotterdam (Indoor/Hard)
20181Doha (Outdoor/Hard)
20161Washington (Outdoor/Hard)
20141Montpellier (Indoor/Hard)
20111Stockholm (Indoor/Hard)
20101Montpellier (Indoor/Hard)
20091Metz (Indoor/Hard)
20051Sopot (Outdoor/Clay)


Wow, he sure is dominating in such a “weak” era :-D

How are Novak’s other peers doing in this “weak” era?
 

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
I don't think most versions of Djokovic would've won the 2023 Wimbledon final given that he can’t play in the wind at a high level.
 

Cortana

Legend
I don‘t see what 26 years old Djokovic has over 36 years old Djokovic to beat him easily. Certainly not the FH speed, the serve, tennis IQ and the mental strength.

2023 Djokovic might not have the stamina and speed for 40 shot rallies anymore. But he doesn‘t need it anymore. He transformed himself as a player and relies on other strengths today. He is way more efficient in his games.
 

pirhaksar

Professional
I don‘t see what 26 years old Djokovic has over 36 years old Djokovic to beat him easily. Certainly not the FH speed, the serve, tennis IQ and the mental strength.

2023 Djokovic might not have the stamina and speed for 40 shot rallies anymore. But he doesn‘t need it anymore. He transformed himself as a player and relies on other strengths today. He is way more efficient in his games.
True but the 26 yr old will force the 36 yr version into extended rallies and take his legs out. So I have the 26 yr old beating 36 yr old 7-3 or maybe 6-4.
 
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