Head-to-head comparison: Big 3, Thiem, Next Gen

[zvelf]

Here are three tables showing the head-to-head win-loss records of the Big 3, Thiem, and Next Gen players. The top table shows all head-to-head records. Nadal, Djokovic, and Thiem fare the best and all three are within 3% of each other.

The middle table excludes the Big 3’s head-to-head against one another so you can see how the Big 3 fared against the rest without their numbers against 2 of the other greatest players ever. Surprisingly the rankings don’t change at all although Nadal and Djokovic’s winning percentages go way up without their losses to Federer. Federer though, already with losing records against the other Big 3, only improves by 1.7%, meaning against Thiem and the Next Gen, he has performed only very slightly worse than against Nadal and Djokovic combined. This isn’t really a slight on Federer. He was around 36-37 when playing many of these matches. Once Nadal and Djokovic hit 36-37, you can expect them to be losing more than half their matches against the best younger players too.

In the third table, once the Big 3 are removed altogether, Thiem and Medvedev’s records against the rest are tops and very close to each other.

Djokovic is the only player who has a winning HTH against every other player here (except Rublev, whom he has not played). Outside of his losing HTH against Djokovic, Nadal can say the same. Rublev is at the bottom by every measure, though ironically his only winning HTHs are against Thiem and Federer (out of only 1 game played).

Aside from Rublev, no one's overall HTH win-loss percentage is actually that bad. Given how much posters on this forum like to exaggerate how good or bad this or that player is, it’s no surprise that these numbers show that the Next Gen’s performance is somewhere in the middle of that.

Other observations?

 

[Atennisone]

Funny thing is it is much more certain that Rublev wins a 1R GS than any other of the next gens, and by far the most unlikely to win a QF in GS.

 

[socallefty]

Nice analysis. The only thing that jumps out at me is how much Zverev is behind Thiem and Medvedev. Purely from the baseline, he looks like he can hang with them and even with Nadal/Djokovic. But, I guess if you have double fault issues that rise up to bite you at crucial moments late in matches, it is a huge drawback.

 

[daggerman]

It's interesting that Zverev broke out before all of the non-Big3 players (except Thiem) and accumulated a number of wins over his younger peers pre-2019, yet still has the 2nd-worst aggregate h2h record

 

[zvelf]

Nice analysis. The only thing that jumps out at me is how much Zverev is behind Thiem and Medvedev. Purely from the baseline, he looks like he can hang with them and even with Nadal/Djokovic. But, I guess if you have double fault issues that rise up to bite you at crucial moments late in matches, it is a huge drawback.

It's interesting that Zverev broke out before all of the non-Big3 players (except Thiem) and accumulated a number of wins over his younger peers pre-2019, yet still has the 2nd-worst aggregate h2h record

Yeah, Zverev is an interesting case. For a brief moment, he looked like he was well on his way to success, but then the double faulting came and he mentally went away and lost a bunch. He seems more on track now and he reached a GS final, but it remains to be seen if he has what it takes to win 1 or more majors.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Thiem belongs to level of his own. He has defeated in form big 3 many times. It is just his head otherwise he will going to have Murray like career imo..

 

[D.Nalby12]

It's interesting that Zverev broke out before all of the non-Big3 players (except Thiem) and accumulated a number of wins over his younger peers pre-2019, yet still has the 2nd-worst aggregate h2h record

Zverev got lucky in beginning. He found big 3 on their worst days. His luck ran out eventually.

 

[CYGS]

That's why Fed is never the GOAT for me.

 

[Deleted member 758560]

That's why Fed is never the GOAT for me.

we knew it even before, we knew it

 

[Villain]

What it tells us?

 

[MeatTornado]

Zverev got lucky in beginning. He found big 3 on their worst days. His luck ran out eventually.

His 2017 wins were kind of a joke, but his 2018 YEC came against a genuinely good Djokovic (not his best, but still good). Same for that Nadal match in Rome (Madrid?) where Rafa got saved by the rain. He's shown he does have the game, he just bogs himself down in mental mistakes time and time again. The double-faulting has become a full time issue, it's not just in big matches or against the Big 3.

His ranking got way too inflated in 2017, he never should've been top 3. But there's also no excuse for him being outside the top 5 now.

 

[mike danny]

Zverev got lucky in beginning. He found big 3 on their worst days. His luck ran out eventually.

Yeah, the guy ran into slumping Novak and injured Fed to win 2 masters titles that propelled him to no.3 in the world with feeble slam performances.

Lucky is an understatement.

 

[mike danny]

His 2017 wins were kind of a joke, but his 2018 YEC came against a genuinely good Djokovic (not his best, but still good). Same for that Nadal match in Rome (Madrid?) where Rafa got saved by the rain. He's shown he does have the game, he just bogs himself down in mental mistakes time and time again. The double-faulting has become a full time issue, it's not just in big matches or against the Big 3.

His ranking got way too inflated in 2017, he never should've been top 3. But there's also no excuse for him being outside the top 5 now.

The 2018 WTF win was great, but got lucky with Djokovic playing his worst match of the tournament in the final LOL.

 

[zvelf]

Another observation: it's interesting the Tsitsipas dominates against Zverev 5-1 but gets dominated by Medvedev 1-6. It's not clear to me why Tsitsipas is such a good matchup against Zverev and such a bad matchup against Medvedev. And Federer's best HTH against any of these players is against Medvedev, which is a little surprising.

 

[James P]

Another observation: it's interesting the Tsitsipas dominates against Zverev 5-1 but gets dominated by Medvedev 1-6. It's not clear to me why Tsitsipas is such a good matchup against Zverev and such a bad matchup against Medvedev. And Federer's best HTH against any of these players is against Medvedev, which is a little surprising.

There was a time when they had a weird paper, rock, scissors relationship

Zverev 5-1 over Medvedev
Medvedev 5-1 over Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas 5-1 over Zverev

Since then, Medvedev has beaten Zverev three times, and the most recent AO win against Tsitsipas, as well, he's taken the lead in this triple relationship.

 

[Tennisfan339]

Interesting tables/results. Thank you.

 

[MeatTornado]

There was a time when they had a weird paper, rock, scissors relationship

Zverev 5-1 over Medvedev
Medvedev 5-1 over Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas 5-1 over Zverev

Since then, Medvedev has beaten Zverev three times, and the most recent AO win against Tsitsipas, as well, he's taken the lead in this triple relationship.

I was hoping they'd maintain that balance for longer. It was kinda interesting.

 

[Red Rick]

Nice analysis. The only thing that jumps out at me is how much Zverev is behind Thiem and Medvedev. Purely from the baseline, he looks like he can hang with them and even with Nadal/Djokovic. But, I guess if you have double fault issues that rise up to bite you at crucial moments late in matches, it is a huge drawback.

Zverev also played these guys less in his 2017/2018 prime than later on.

 

[Red Rick]

His 2017 wins were kind of a joke, but his 2018 YEC came against a genuinely good Djokovic (not his best, but still good). Same for that Nadal match in Rome (Madrid?) where Rafa got saved by the rain. He's shown he does have the game, he just bogs himself down in mental mistakes time and time again. The double-faulting has become a full time issue, it's not just in big matches or against the Big 3.

His ranking got way too inflated in 2017, he never should've been top 3. But there's also no excuse for him being outside the top 5 now.

Should probably be #5 ahead of Fed at this point, but whatever. Djokovic in that WTF final is still a mystery to me, and IMO he should have a naturally amazing MU vs The Nadal. The real shocking thing about Zverev is his low 1st%won with how big he can hit it.

 

[MeatTornado]

Should probably be #5 ahead of Fed at this point, but whatever. Djokovic in that WTF final is still a mystery to me, and IMO he should have a naturally amazing MU vs The Nadal. The real shocking thing about Zverev is his low 1st%won with how big he can hit it.

At least it went up slightly last year.
2017: 74.5
2018: 74.4
2019: 74.7
2020: 76.7

But still unacceptable to be so low.

 

[Red Rick]

At least it went up slightly last year.
2017: 74.5
2018: 74.4
2019: 74.7
2020: 76.7

But still unacceptable to be so low.

1st serve stats have inflated a LOT over the last few years in general. Compare this to Raonic who is like a full 8% higher.

He also played a lower proportion of clay tournaments last year.

 

[MeatTornado]

He also played a lower proportion of clay tournaments last year.

Somehow I totally brain farted and forgot last year was COVID season.

 

[Red Rick]

Somehow I totally brain farted and forgot last year was COVID season.

Remember that when Medvedev hits #1

 

[Nadal_King]

Djokovic-zverev is 6-2 but if I am correct it began quite even but last 3-4 matches have all tilted in djokovic's favour way that matchup seems from scoreline is much closer in reality

 

[Crazy Finn]

Zverev is interesting as he seems to have the tools and game, but has a tendency to go off the track - either mentally or with his serve, or both. He's kind of a hot head and a head case and needs a dependable second serve.

It's interesting because one could have said similar things about Djokovic (maybe minus the serve, part) prior to his 2011 makeover.

I'm not predicting that for Zverev, necessarily. Just saying....

 

[clout]

Zverev is 1-5 against a YouTuber and Instagram Influencer lol