Here's why Djokovic is the favourite to win RG

ibbi

G.O.A.T.
He is the favourite because he is who he is and outside of New York, Alcaraz has yet to actually accomplish anything at the slams.

I know the sample size is small, and the sample size since he won that US Open is literally 0, but in Australia last year he lost the one 5 set match that he's lost in his career against the first top player he faced, and at Roland Garros and Wimbledon he got completely outclassed by Zverev and Sinner.

Until Alcaraz DOES it, it seems crazy to call him favourite just based on form. I know he beat him in that epic last year in Madrid, but Madrid is not Roland Garros, the conditions are not the same, the format is not the same, the pressure is not the same.

All that said, I don't think either of them has it easy to even get to that potential semi-final face-off to begin with. I wouldn't be all that surprised if they both lost beforehand. :laughing:
 

UnforcedTerror

Hall of Fame
That would have been true if Djokovic was at his best. He had his worst clay season since ever, not a single QF made and that wouldn't cut it against Alcaraz or even Rune.
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
In 11 of those editions he beat either Federer or Djokovic. Sometimes both. In those 3 that he didn't meet Djok/Fed he had to beat prime Wawrinka or Peak Thiem (the one who Djokovic couldn't beat). Compare that to some of the recent Djokovic slam rivals lol.
orange-cassidy-pro-wrestling.gif
 

Midaso240

Legend
I think the reason bookmakers don't have Djokovic as favourite is over the years, he hasn't proven to have the same mental edge at RG as he does at AO and Wimbledon in particular. Of course, Alcaraz hasn't proven anything at RG really, but he had superior form coming in
 

NAS

Hall of Fame
Alcaraz, Rune and Tsits all are better than him currently on clay.
He is not winning RG with this form unless he improves dramatically
 
Until Alcaraz DOES it, it seems crazy to call him favourite just based on form. I know he beat him in that epic last year in Madrid, but Madrid is not Roland Garros, the conditions are not the same, the format is not the same, the pressure is not the same.

All that said, I don't think either of them has it easy to even get to that potential semi-final face-off to begin with. I wouldn't be all that surprised if they both lost beforehand. :laughing:
This. How can anyone take an unproven event (carlos wins bo5 at a slam against a double digit slam winner), and call it the most likely outcome? Especially when the same prediction failed last year. Yes he has a chance, but I would rate him behind Djokovic.

People are reading too much into Djokovic noise about injuries, having learnt nothing from the most recent win at the Australian open.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
Since Wimbledon 2018 Djokovic has only lost twice in a GS to a non-Big 3 player in a completed match, that's almost 5 full years, how can anyone else be the favorite ?
Exactly. He’s 97-4, if I counted right, in completed matches at slams since mid-2018 – and 2 of those losses were to Nadal at Roland Garros. He’s literally never been more dominant. He should be a bigger favorite now than he ever was earlier in his career.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Exactly. He’s 97-4, if I counted right, in completed matches at slams since mid-2018 – and 2 of those losses were to Nadal at Roland Garros. He’s literally never been more dominant. He should be a bigger favorite now than he ever was earlier in his career.

people need to stop excluding the matches.
Djokovic was losing to Wawa in USO 19 even before he looked affected anyways.
and default in USO 20 is also reality. He barely escaped in RG 16, but not in USO 20.

Thiem in RG 19
Wawa in USO 19
PCB in USO 20
Nadal in RG 20
Med in USO 21
Nadal in RG 22

6 losses.

from 18, he's won 1/5 RGs. (loss to Cecch, Thiem, Nadal, Nadal)
He's not made SF of a CC event this year.
You can make him favorite for AO/Wim, but not RG with Alcaraz's form and winning Madrid/Barca.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
This. How can anyone take an unproven event (carlos wins bo5 at a slam against a double digit slam winner), and call it the most likely outcome? Especially when the same prediction failed last year. Yes he has a chance, but I would rate him behind Djokovic.

People are reading too much into Djokovic noise about injuries, having learnt nothing from the most recent win at the Australian open.

Alcaraz hadn't made SF of a slam before last year's RG. he has won a slam now. and he is playing better.
Last year, it was Nadal, a 13 time RG winner then who won, not Djokovic.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
people need to stop excluding the matches.
Djokovic was losing to Wawa in USO 19 even before he looked affected anyways.
and default in USO 20 is also reality. He barely escaped in RG 16, but not in USO 20.

Thiem in RG 19
Wawa in USO 19
PCB in USO 20
Nadal in RG 20
Med in USO 21
Nadal in RG 22

6 losses.

from 18, he's won 1/5 RGs. (loss to Cecch, Thiem, Nadal, Nadal)
He's not made SF of a CC event this year.
You can make him favorite for AO/Wim, but not RG with Alcaraz's form and winning Madrid/Barca.
Of course those losses are reality – I’m not pretending they don’t exist but trying to extrapolate reasonable probabilities of future success from past results. You have a point about the Wawrinka match, but the PCB match is just not relevant to his future odds of winning slams. What’s the likelihood he’s defaulted again? Almost zero, I would say.

In the last three years at Roland Garros, he only lost to Nadal (when he lost at all). It took peak Thiem five sets and awful conditions to beat him in 2019. Alcaraz could topple him in the semis this year of course, but hard to call the young Spaniard the favorite when Novak’s record in recent French Opens has been pretty much spotless (we can’t fault him for losing to Nadal; everyone does).
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Of course those losses are reality – I’m not pretending they don’t exist but trying to extrapolate reasonable probabilities of future success from past results. You have a point about the Wawrinka match, but the PCB match is just not relevant to his future odds of winning slams. What’s the likelihood he’s defaulted again? Almost zero, I would say.
fair enough on the PCB match, but atleast we agree on the Wawa USO 19 one.

In the last three years at Roland Garros, he only lost to Nadal (when he lost at all). It took peak Thiem five sets and awful conditions to beat him in 2019. Alcaraz could topple him in the semis this year of course, but hard to call the young Spaniard the favorite when Novak’s record in recent French Opens has been pretty much spotless (we can’t fault him for losing to Nadal; everyone does).

In RG 19, neither Thiem nor Djokovic particularly benefitted from the wind. It was obvious that Thiem's weight of shot was too much for Djokovic when he was playing well. Similar Thiem would've beaten Djokovic of RG 20-current save maybe the Djokovic who turned up for the RG 21 SF.

In RG 20, Djokovic went 5 vs Tpas and got beaten badly by Nadal. Not what I'd call spotless

In RG 21, down 2 sets to love Musetti and again vs Tpas. Tpas should've won 1 of the last 3 sets if he was good enough. I mean he allowed a 34 yo old to outlast him so clearly on clay, its beyond smh. not what I'd call spotless from Djokovic. Though read below for more on RG 21.

In RG 22, Djokovic made it respectable, but was being outplayed by Nadal for large stretches, 1st set beatdown and down double break in the 2nd set. beatdown in the 3rd set. not what I'd call spotless.

The only one worth tipping my hat off is that he managed to win RG 21 at that age and the level in the SF vs nadal (after the 1st 5 games that is)

Alcaraz's level on clay this year is better than anyone not named Nadal in 20-22 and he does have the experience of winning a slam now, unlike last year. Also Djokovic's form is worse than in 20-22 as showcased by him not making a single semi out of the 3 CC events he played in. Even in Rome, his favorite tournament, he got outplayed badly by Rune in set 1 and 3.
Alcaraz's weight of shot and physicality is beyond Djokovic now on clay. He can compensate with serve on other surfaces for sure, but not as much on RG clay. Djokovic would need Alcaraz to dip significantly or much less likely roll back to RG 21 semi form if Alcaraz is playing well enough.
 

tennis_error

Professional
fair enough on the PCB match, but atleast we agree on the Wawa USO 19 one.



In RG 19, neither Thiem nor Djokovic particularly benefitted from the wind. It was obvious that Thiem's weight of shot was too much for Djokovic when he was playing well. Similar Thiem would've beaten Djokovic of RG 20-current save maybe the Djokovic who turned up for the RG 21 SF.

In RG 20, Djokovic went 5 vs Tpas and got beaten badly by Nadal. Not what I'd call spotless

In RG 21, down 2 sets to love Musetti and again vs Tpas. Tpas should've won 1 of the last 3 sets if he was good enough. I mean he allowed a 34 yo old to outlast him so clearly on clay, its beyond smh. not what I'd call spotless from Djokovic. Though read below for more on RG 21.

In RG 22, Djokovic made it respectable, but was being outplayed by Nadal for large stretches, 1st set beatdown and down double break in the 2nd set. beatdown in the 3rd set. not what I'd call spotless.

The only one worth tipping my hat off is that he managed to win RG 21 at that age and the level in the SF vs nadal (after the 1st 5 games that is)

Alcaraz's level on clay this year is better than anyone not named Nadal in 20-22 and he does have the experience of winning a slam now, unlike last year. Also Djokovic's form is worse than in 20-22 as showcased by him not making a single semi out of the 3 CC events he played in. Even in Rome, his favorite tournament, he got outplayed badly by Rune in set 1 and 3.
Alcaraz's weight of shot and physicality is beyond Djokovic now on clay. He can compensate with serve on other surfaces for sure, but not as much on RG clay. Djokovic would need Alcaraz to dip significantly or much less likely roll back to RG 21 semi form if Alcaraz is playing well enough.
... forward to the future, when Novak beat Alcaraz in SF... "Another loser", "New gen mug", "Another weak era win against Alcamug"... Clockwork, lol...
 

jga111

Hall of Fame
Of course Djokovic is favourite. He has the experience and the tactical nous.

If anything I’m not even sure Alcaraz will beat Musetti - who I must say if Musetti does win FO, he’ll reach global levels of interest never seen since Federer
 

platypus50

Rookie
Best of 5 is a totally different ball game and this factor alone makes Djoker the favourite over anyone else still left in the draw

Looking ahead to a potential Alcaraz vs Djoker SF, I'm hoping that match between two of my favourites actually happens
 
Top