Higher peak level in slams: Medvedev vs Ferrer

[Kralingen]

2010 US Open vs Verdasco is another piece of pure entertainment from the Ferrer archives.

Medvedev is a better player but Ferrer is so underrated on TTW.

He was certainly outgunned by the Big 3 most of the time and didn't do enough in his youth, but yeah the guy was a fighter and a real tennis player. That FH and transition game is better than every NextGen's except maybe Tsitsipas. He really really really wanted to win, you don't see that so much these days.

I like that highlight video as it's one of the few examples of a '08-15 era player playing against a Big 3 opponent who is somewhat hampered and/or not at his best. They were so used to having to play out of their skin that, when they face a beatable Big 3 level, well, you see a guy go from pigeon to seemingly producing the tennis of his career.

Reaction to that pass: "He did a Nadal to the Nadal"

Funny thing is, (and I'm not going to say '11 Nadal > '22 Nadal, bc mentally they are leagues apart), the movement of the injured Dal and '22 Nadal are not too dissimilar. Thus a great opportunity to show what prime Big 3 rivals would do against declined Big 3 aka what they are today.

Idk why we have to sh-t on Ferrer so much anyways. He showed up, took his beatings, stayed as a very consistent gatekeeper. Let's celebrate the highs he did give us, no? Medvedev will have more than a few days in the sun in the next few years and be viewed as far greater anyway.

 

[The_Order]

The exact same threads were repeatedly being made this time last year after Djokovic beat Medvedev.
TTW is nothing if not predictable.

Med wasn't #1 and I don't recall him being compared to freaking Ferrer either...

 

[Sudacafan]

How can Medvedev and Ferrer be compared, except for sharing their last names with only e vowels?

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Med wasn't #1 and I don't recall him being compared to freaking Ferrer either...

Such disrespect for Ferrer when he faced a far higher level of opponent play than Sadev ever did.

 

[Sudacafan]

Highest peak Medvedev, obviously.
He is 9 inches taller than Ferrer.

 

[Djokovic2011]

Med wasn't #1 and I don't recall him being compared to freaking Ferrer either...

I meant that there was a lot of frustration and anger being directed towards Medvedev, just like there is now although admittedly it does seem worse than last year.

 

[The_Order]

Such disrespect for Ferrer when he faced a far higher level of opponent play than Sadev ever did.

Nah, I respect Ferrer, after all he did also own Andy Roddick on hc, grass and clay...

He also owned Hewitt and bageled him at the US Open...

 

[The_Order]

I meant that there was a lot of frustration and anger being directed towards Medvedev, just like there is now although admittedly it does seem worse than last year.

Yeah and that's because last year Djokovic only won his 18th major... he didn't overtake Fed...

Notice who is creating all these types of threads...

 

[Djokovic2011]

Yeah and that's because last year Djokovic only won his 18th major... he didn't overtake Fed...

Notice who is creating all these types of threads...

You can kind of understand it in a way. Winning the AO last year meant Djokovic was pretty much guaranteed to take the record for most weeks at #1 and obviously this year Nadal took the slam record.

The AO hasn't been kind to Fed fans in recent times.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Nah, I respect Ferrer, after all he did also own Andy Roddick on hc, grass and clay...

He also owned Hewitt and bageled him at the US Open...

At least own you're not interested in the slightest shred of objectivity.

 

[mike danny]

I don't know, just because Djokovic and Nadal were 23-25 years old in 10, 11, 12, it doesn't mean they were in their prime. It depends on form and many other things, but mainly on form.

For example, to me, prime Djokovic was 2011, 2015/16 untill RG 16 and 2021. About 2021, no matter how "weak" the field is, it takes hell of a playing to be 27/28 in Grand Slams through the year, winning 27 matches in a row.

So "prime" Ferrer, Murray, Tsitspas, Medvedev... It depends.

But Medvedev is certainly better than Ferrer. 3-1 for Daniil, Ferrer wins the RG clash obviously.

Nadal and Djokovic were clearly better when they were younger. That shouldn't change juat to explain away Med's failures against them.

 

[Steffi-forever]

Probably Ferrer, even when smoking a pack of parliament a day!

 

[abmk]

All this Slam-by-Slam hairsplitting is moot. Ferru ain't winning a major in any era while Med likely grabs a HC Slam or two. Being better rounded doesn't mean a thing if you can't go all the way at the biggies.

umm, not really. Med could go slamless on HC in another era like Chang or Nalby.

Exactly. Dave is one of the very best returners, but Med is arguably as good and he's got the decisive advantage in that serve.

how?

Ferru is at 31.4% return games won, Med's at 26.6%
vs top 20, Ferru is at 25.6%, Med's at 21%

on HC alone:
Ferru is at 29.7%, Med's at 27.6%
vs top 20, Ferru is at 24.8%, Med's at 20.8%

Ferru is at 30+% on return games every year from 2005 to 2015 (except for 2008)
Med's crossed 30% only in 2021.

there's no question ferrer is the better returner. its not even debatable IMO.

 

[abmk]

Fraud was averaging a good 61.4% (124/202) before the F so he'd definitely do better vs. Novak (pre-SF 62.7% or 99/158). But I still remember Fred committing a rather alarming # of UFEs at that FO, so Nole prolly takes it in 4-5 should they meet in the F.

Djokovic is certainly favoured. Federer has a sizeable chance though (whereas if he played like he did vs Nadal he'd have no chance against a great many players, lawl).

1. Fed beat Djoko at Monte Carlo in 2008. I'd say fed was better at Hamburg as well. Djoko clearly better at Rome.
2. If we do a like for like comparision, fed from 1R to QF of RG 2008 was at 100/160, that's 62.5%. Dead even with djoko on that front.
Also Fed won 57.2% of total points, while Djoko won 55.6%
3. At RG, Fed did hit more UFEs than usual in some stretches, but definitely wouldn't call it alarming # of UEs by any means. But in other stretches, he was playing well (before the final)
4. Fed would be determined not to let Djoko beat him 2nd time in a row in a slam.
5. Finally the dreaded not winning a 2nd slam just after you've won your first slam curse of the open era. (on the men's side)

Given all this, I don't see djoko being clearly favoured. Maybe marginal or small edge for Djoko. I'd say its about even. It'd be a tussle, which would more likely go fed's way than djoko's at that stage of their careers in Bo5.

 

[Third Serve]

1. Fed beat Djoko at Monte Carlo in 2008. I'd say fed was better at Hamburg as well. Djoko clearly better at Rome.

That was a retirement...

 

[abmk]

LOL, I fully understand/acknowledge this is by far the muggest field of men in modern times, if not ever. Still don't think Ferru can rampage thru a joke draw like Med at any HC major (your own #s, as you may recall). The closest equivalent would be Dave's run at '13 RG, but Bull in his arguably weakest championship form (barring '06) showed why we shouldn't put too much stock in that GW%. Ferrer doesn't have a Rocket's power or a Rios/Costa's creativity to make up for that lack of size.

I'd say taking QF-F form, 2013 RG nadal > 2014 RG nadal and 2011 RG nadal
There's no way I'd trust Med if he ran into a buzzsaw form like Nadal of RG 13 final
Given ferru did beat Nadal at USO 07/AO 11 and djoko at DC 09 and took 1st set easily off djoko struggling in windy conditions in USO 12 semi, I'd say he'd beat Djoko of USO 21 final as well, if in form.

Ferru did rampage through RG 2013 draw before the final. Won 109/154 games before the final. That's 70.7%,
Med was at 114/171 before USO 21 final (66.6%)

I'd say about same or marginal edge to Med considering surfaces. But it ain't a significant difference.

Ferru was at 96/146 (65.75%) from 1R to QF at AO 11. Probably the closest he's got to Med's run at USO 21.

 

[abmk]

That was a retirement...

In Monte Carlo 2008, Fed was beating Djoko and Djoko retired due to umm, sore threat.
match quality was actually good before Djoko retired.

 

[abmk]

At thread:

Ferru at RG is the biggest margin
Med has the significant edge at USO
AO is where it gets most interesting. Ferru couldn't grab the big moments (TBs) vs a less than stellar Murray in AO 11 - his best chance to make a final there. Med crumbled in AO 21 final and choked big time in AO 22 final. I'd pick Med marginally, but eh.
Ferru less worse at Wimbledon, but neither of them realistically had a shot, so not that significant as others

 

[The_Order]

At least own you're not interested in the slightest shred of objectivity.

Yeah a guy throwing out all this name calling re Med is objective...

Hahahaha we all know that Fed fans like you and abmk love to play by your own rules on here... flap your gums then cry woe is me and hurl stupid insults (which btw are not funny and not creative in the slightest) at posters whenever they challenge your ridiculous logic...

 

[TheFifthSet]

Yeah a guy throwing out all this name calling re Med is objective...

Hahahaha we all know that Fed fans like you and abmk love to play by your own rules on here... flap your gums then cry woe is me and hurl stupid insults (which btw are not funny and not creative in the slightest) at posters whenever they challenge your ridiculous logic...

Octo literally challenges abmk in similar ways at just about every turn. You’re just blindly machine-gunning here lol.

 

[The_Order]

Octo literally challenges abmk in similar ways at just about every turn. You’re just blindly machine-gunning here lol.

Yeah but they behave the same way when they're challenged, which is what my point was.

 

[roysid]

I voted 2-2.
AO, USO : Medvedevs level is much higher. Ferrer didnt put much challenge to djokovic or murray

RG : Ferrer is higher there. Finals, semis etc. Whereas meddy had 4 first rnd loses before having a QF result.

W : Not so sure, went for ferrer as meddy is yet or do anything there

 

[abmk]

I voted 2-2.
AO, USO : Medvedevs level is much higher. Ferrer didnt put much challenge to djokovic or murray

RG : Ferrer is higher there. Finals, semis etc. Whereas meddy had 4 first rnd loses before having a QF result.

W : Not so sure, went for ferrer as meddy is yet or do anything there

eh, Ferrer-Murray in 2011 was a tight 4-setter.
med didn't put much challenge to 2021 Djoko at AO, let alone 2008/11/13 Djoko whom ferru was facing.
Med's a little better at AO, but not much higher level.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Yeah but they behave the same way when they're challenged, which is what my point was.

You really think you're any better? Rofl.

 

[Jonas78]

This thread reminds me why im currently not watching tennis...

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

At thread:

Ferru at RG is the biggest margin
Med has the significant edge at USO
AO is where it gets most interesting. Ferru couldn't grab the big moments (TBs) vs a less than stellar Murray in AO 11 - his best chance to make a final there. Med crumbled in AO 21 final and choked big time in AO 22 final. I'd pick Med marginally, but eh.
Ferru less worse at Wimbledon, but neither of them realistically had a shot, so not that significant as others

Perhaps Murray's level there is getting underrated? He did kind of collapse in the final vs Djokovic but that was Peakovic, tough stuff. Medvedev collapsed in the 2021 final against a not-as-good Djokovic - and I don't think his 2022 level was better. Honestly even Hamstringdal seems to have been moving ok (not great, which means poor by his prime standards, but ok for the tour). Medvedev would've outlasted him (although who knows, he might just choke to a clearly injured Nadal a la Khachanov IW 2019, nothing is beyond the silly gen), but not beat him cleanly like Ferrer did since Med doesn't have the strokes for that, I suspect.

 

[abmk]

Perhaps Murray's level there is getting underrated? He did kind of collapse in the final vs Djokovic but that was Peakovic, tough stuff. Medvedev collapsed in the 2021 final against a not-as-good Djokovic - and I don't think his 2022 level was better. Honestly even Hamstringdal seems to have been moving ok (not great, which means poor by his prime standards, but ok for the tour). Medvedev would've outlasted him (although who knows, he might just choke to a clearly injured Nadal a la Khachanov IW 2019, nothing is beyond the silly gen), but not beat him cleanly like Ferrer did since Med doesn't have the strokes for that, I suspect.

I do think Ferrer should've pushed Murray to 5 by taking one of the 2 breakers. He's a great fighter, but necessarily that good a big point player.
I mean Murray was ok/decent (a little better than that at best) in AO 11 before final by normal standards, but that translates to good level by 2016+ standards, lol.
He was significantly better at AO 2010 previous year though. (&obviously 12/13 as well)

Given Murray's QF vs Dolgo and SF vs Ferrer, I thought djoko would take him in 4 sets in AO 11 final (fed should've taken one of sets 1 or 2). But Murray played worse in the final.
Mind you, Murray had taken their previous 3 HC matches - Canada 08, Cincy 08, Miami 09.

 

[The_Order]

You really think you're any better? Rofl.

No, no, always remember... the word is ROFLSTOMPED

 

[Visionary]

Apples and Oranges on TTW again

If you compare Medvedev to Juan Carlos Ferrero, you may get a better view on what you're looking for

 

[Pheasant]

Medvedev is at a big disadvantage here, due to being only 26. Ferrer hit his peak from ages 29-31 by going to 10 consecutive QF’s at slam events. Prior to that streak, he made it to only 5 slam quarters in the previous 7 years(2005-2011; first slam QF in 2005).

But, nobody put an age restriction on this. Given that, I’d say it’s 2 slams each.

With that being said, I hope that Medvedev can improve as much as Ferrer did. Ferrer is one of those rare guys that played much more consistent and better tennis at age 30 than he did at ages 24-26.

 

[Sport]

Medvedev 3-1.

 

[abmk]

Medvedev 3-1.

on what basis is Med over Ferrer at Wimbledon?
His top result is 4R - lost to Hurk in 5 sets
Ferrer in Wim 12 beat delpo and made it competitive vs peak Murray.

Med could become better than Ferrer at Wim, but its not the case so far.

 

[Sport]

on what basis is Med over Ferrer at Wimbledon?
His top result is 4R - lost to Hurk in 5 sets
Ferrer in Wim 12 beat delpo and made it competitive vs peak Murray.

Med could become better than Ferrer at Wim, but its not the case so far.

Better serve. Crucial for grass.

 

[abmk]

Better serve. Crucial for grass.

and yet best result is 4R. ferrer has 2 QFs at Wim.
So I ask again, based on what we've actually seen, how is med better at Wim than ferrer?
Hint: he isn't yet. though he could become in the future.

 

[InsideOut900]

All this Slam-by-Slam hairsplitting is moot. Ferru ain't winning a major in any era while Med likely grabs a HC Slam or two. Being better rounded doesn't mean a thing if you can't go all the way at the biggies.

When exactly does Medvedev even sneak a HC Slam like ever in the past? He can't even beat 2019 USO or 2022 AO Nadal and that's about the lowest it gets for a HC Slam winner.

 

[abmk]

When exactly does Medvedev even sneak a HC Slam like ever? He can't even beat 2019 USO or 2022 AO Nadal and that's about the lowest it gets for a HC Slam winner.

Maybe AO 02 considering Safin in the final. But pre-final is no lock for med there either.

 

[Sport]

All this Slam-by-Slam hairsplitting is moot. Ferru ain't winning a major in any era while Med likely grabs a HC Slam or two. Being better rounded doesn't mean a thing if you can't go all the way at the biggies.



Exactly. Dave is one of the very best returners, but Med is arguably as good and he's got the decisive advantage in that serve.

Solid analysis, as usual.

 

[InsideOut900]

Maybe AO 02 considering Safin in the final. But pre-final is no lock for med there either.

Med was poor in his both AO finals. And he wouldn't even beat someone like 2016 Stan if he lost to 2019 Nadal at USO.

So only 2020/2021 USO really

 

[abmk]

Med was poor in his both AO finals. And he wouldn't even beat someone like 2016 Stan if he lost to 2019 Nadal at USO.

So only 2020/2021 USO really

I was speaking in general.
You mean 2019/2021 USO. Since 2020 USO semi vs Tim from Med was worse than 2019 USO final vs nadal.

2021 USO med would have decent shot vs 2019 USO nadal and 2016 Stan. though I'd favour Stan as being tad better&mentally stronger and now Nadal due to AO 22.
Med actually showed semblance of transition game+net play in 2019 USO final vs Nadal. AO 22 final - those aspects from him were well Zverible.

 

[InsideOut900]

I was speaking in general.
You mean 2019/2021 USO. Since 2020 USO semi vs Tim from Med was worse than 2019 USO final vs nadal.

2021 USO med would have decent shot vs 2019 USO nadal and 2016 Stan. though I'd favour Stan as being tad better&mentally stronger and now Nadal due to AO 22.
Med actually showed semblance of transition game+net play in 2019 USO final vs Nadal. AO 22 final - those aspects from him were well Zverible.

I meant peak 2019/2021 USO Med could win 2020 USO and the one in 2021, but no other edition.

I don't think he was better in 2021 than 2019 really, maybe slightly.

 

[abmk]

I meant peak 2019/2021 USO Med could win 2020 USO and the one in 2021, but no other edition.

I don't think he was better in 2021 than 2019 really, maybe slightly.

got it.
Med was more composed, less volatile in USO 21 compared to USO 19.
In USO 19, med lost 4 sets before the final - Dullen, Koepfer, Lopez, Wawa.
Wawa one is obviously expected. Losing another set to someone else is fine. But there's still 2 more sets to account for.
In USO 21, Med lost 1 set before the final. Would've probably lost 2 sets with USO 19 draw (one to Wawa obviously and one to one of the others)

 

[martinezownsclay]

Maybe AO 02 considering Safin in the final. But pre-final is no lock for med there either.

I do think he would almost for sure go through Johansson's specific draw to the final, which is what we must be thinking of.

 

[abmk]

I do think he would almost for sure go through Johansson's specific draw to the final, which is what we must be thinking of.

Johansson's half? yeah. for sure
Safin's half though? Sampras and Haas. wouldn't bet on it.

 

[martinezownsclay]

Johansson's half? yeah. for sure
Safin's half though? Sampras and Haas. wouldn't bet on it.

Oh yeah, I was just thinking he was replacing Johansson since we were assuming he needs to play Safin in the final. I guess they could swap halves or something though. Or the whole draw is different. I agree he isn't a lock to beat Sampras or even Haas.

 

[DSH]

Med was poor in his both AO finals. And he wouldn't even beat someone like 2016 Stan if he lost to 2019 Nadal at USO.

So only 2020/2021 USO really

What are you talking about?
Nadal from 2019 is superior to that version of Wawrinka from 2016.
Unlike your idol, the Spanish player has no problem dealing with the Swiss game.

 

[martinezownsclay]

What are you talking about?
Nadal from 2019 is superior to that version of Wawrinka from 2016.
Unlike your idol, the Spanish player has no problem dealing with the Swiss game.

I am not sure if Nadal of 2019 was better than Wawrinka of 2016 at the US Open at all. I agree he would probably wins if they played due to the match up, but I still doubt Medvedev of 2019 beats Warwinka of 2016 (and probably doesn't even go 5 sets), and I am completely sure Djokovic of 2016 would beat Nadal of 2019 in the final (or Medvedev in the final as well). Medvedev struggled hard with Wawrinka when they played in the quarters in 2019 itself, and Warwinka was like 60% the player he used to be by then, so no way do I see him likely beating 2016 Wawrinka.

 

[abmk]

What are you talking about?
Nadal from 2019 is superior to that version of Wawrinka from 2016.
Unlike your idol, the Spanish player has no problem dealing with the Swiss game.

Wawa of USO 16 from QF-F > Nadal of USO 19 from QF-F
In a direct match, Nadal might just edge him out due to matchup. But in terms of actual level, Wawa was better.
Also, Djoko of USO 16 would more likely than not edge out Nadal of USO 19.
Wawa didn't just beat Djoko at USO 16, he also beat Nishi and Delpo.

Med of USO 19 had some trouble with Wawa of USO 19 and actually lost to Wawa in AO 20. and this was clearly past it Wawa. Wawa of USO 16 would Med of USO 19.

 

[DSH]

I am not sure if Nadal of 2019 was better than Wawrinka of 2016 at the US Open at all. I agree he would probably wins if they played due to the match up, but I still doubt Medvedev of 2019 beats Warwinka of 2016 (and probably doesn't even go 5 sets), and I am completely sure Djokovic of 2016 would beat Nadal of 2019 in the final (or Medvedev in the final as well). Medvedev struggled hard with Wawrinka when they played in the quarters in 2019 itself, and Warwinka was like 60% the player he used to be by then, so no way do I see him likely beating 2016 Wawrinka.

What?

That version of Djokovic was very poor; the level of the Serbian dropped too much after winning RG and he only played the final of that edition of the US Open because his draw was a shame, even the Monfils clown took a set from him.
Djokovic fell so low that he had no choice but to fake a non-existent injury and still did not avoid his defeat.
Nadal would have dispatched him, like Wawrinka, in 4 sets.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

got it.
Med was more composed, less volatile in USO 21 compared to USO 19.
In USO 19, med lost 4 sets before the final - Dullen, Koepfer, Lopez, Wawa.
Wawa one is obviously expected. Losing another set to someone else is fine. But there's still 2 more sets to account for.
In USO 21, Med lost 1 set before the final. Would've probably lost 2 sets with USO 19 draw (one to Wawa obviously and one to one of the others)

His level was obviously higher in 2021 even if the draw was easier. A lovely hidden stat for 2019 is that Medvedev faced SP in the 1st set four consecutive times (3R-SF) while only dropping it once (4R). Nice clutchness but the tennis was kinda messy. Medvedev could've easily been two sets to one or even to love down to Lopez, two sets to one down to a middling Wawrinka, and could've been two sets down to Dimitrov if Grigor had balls.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Medvedev peak is far too much for Ferrer at 3 of the 4 slams. Even Wimbledon Meddy has proven himself after outlasting Jannik Sinner who was number 1 and playing well.

USO and AO is just too easy to see.

RG Meddy would lose most of his matches. Andy Murray who is much better clay player than Medvedev has 1-1 record vs Ferrer in RG so I would say 8-2 or something for Ferrer at RG vs Meddy. Even at RG I would see Meddy grabbing a couple of wins.