[Historic] Nadal is the bookies underdog in a Clay Court match tomorrow

[Leandro2045]

Yes, you heard that right.

Since winning his first Roland Garros in 2005 Rafael Nadal has been the bookies favorite in 418 of his 421 (99.2%) Clay Court matches.

The three exceptions :

Rome 2016 vs Djokovic
Roland Garros 2015 vs Djokovic
Monte Carlo 2015 vs Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz (The Real Deal) becomes the second player ever to join this list over the past 16 years.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Bump when Rafa easily handles Carlos.

 

[pj80]

How good is this Djokovic guy if he can do it 3x

 

[Leandro2045]

Settle down. This is mainly due to Nadal's foot complaints after the match. A healthy rafa is always the favourite on clay

That's my point!

Even when he has commented in the past about any ailments he was still the favorite.

 

[ElChivoEspañol]

The bookies are going to learn a valuable lesson tomorrow.

 

[Moose Malloy]

Do you have a source? I think Fed was favored in the 2006 Monte Carlo final(will try to dig up the thread). Nadal was coming off a first round loss in Miami(and hadn't played much that year due to injury), while Fed was at his most dominant. Bookies were pretty reluctant to make Fed an underdog anywhere at that time - which posters here talked about quite a bit.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Yes, you heard that right.

Since winning his first Roland Garros in 2005 Rafael Nadal has been the bookies favorite in 418 of his 421 (99.2%) Clay Court matches.

The three exceptions :

Rome 2016 vs Djokovic
Roland Garros 2015 vs Djokovic
Monte Carlo 2015 vs Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz (The Real Deal) becomes the second player ever to join this list over the past 16 years.

Ol’ Rog was favored in the 05 RG SF too.

 

[Moose Malloy]

Do you have a source? I think Fed was favored in the 2006 Monte Carlo final(will try to dig up the thread). Nadal was coming off a first round loss in Miami(and hadn't played much that year due to injury), while Fed was at his most dominant. Bookies were pretty reluctant to make Fed an underdog anywhere at that time - which posters here talked about quite a bit.

Found the old thread, Fed was initially -110 for the 06 Monte Carlo final - a very slight favorite. It's possible it was even money at the time of the final though.

 

[GabeT]

Settle down. This is mainly due to Nadal's foot complaints after the match. A healthy rafa is always the favourite on clay

I missed that. Was it serious?

 

[shadow01]

Yes, you heard that right.

Since winning his first Roland Garros in 2005 Rafael Nadal has been the bookies favorite in 418 of his 421 (99.2%) Clay Court matches.

The three exceptions :

Rome 2016 vs Djokovic
Roland Garros 2015 vs Djokovic
Monte Carlo 2015 vs Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz (The Real Deal) becomes the second player ever to join this list over the past 16 years.

Interesting stats. How did you source this info? Is there a db of historical odds or you read it somewhere? Just curious on how to get the data - not challenging your post in any way.

 

[Leandro2045]

Interesting stats. How did you source this info? Is there a db of historical odds or you read it somewhere? Just curious on how to get the data - not challenging your post in any way.

I have an offline excel of Rafa historical odds.

Online, here is the data for all Rafa's matches since late 2008 : Odds Portal: Search Result

 

[Leandro2045]

Ol’ Rog was favored in the 05 RG SF too.

He was indeed which is why i was talking about after Rafa's first FO title.

Apart from those 3 matches against Novak the closest he has been of being an underdog was on his very first clay court final against Roger in Monte Carlo 06.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Settle down. This is mainly due to Nadal's foot complaints after the match. A healthy rafa is always the favourite on clay

Physically perfect Nadal is unbeatable by definition but that doesn't mean tennis has to stop. We can award him all the moral trophies and move on with the game. No one could question his status as the far and away best claycourter in the history of tennis anyway.

 

[shadow01]

I have an offline excel of Rafa historical odds.

Online, here is the data for all Rafa's matches since late 2008 : Odds Portal: Search Result

Awesome. Thanks

 

[shadow01]

I have an offline excel of Rafa historical odds.

Online, here is the data for all Rafa's matches since late 2008 : Odds Portal: Search Result

How should we interpret these historical odds? Opening line from the book makers, line right before starting the game after accounting for placed wagers / public sentiment, something else?

 

[Bubcay]

Yes, you heard that right.

Since winning his first Roland Garros in 2005 Rafael Nadal has been the bookies favorite in 418 of his 421 (99.2%) Clay Court matches.

The three exceptions :

Rome 2016 vs Djokovic
Roland Garros 2015 vs Djokovic
Monte Carlo 2015 vs Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz (The Real Deal) becomes the second player ever to join this list over the past 16 years.

Well, the bookies were right in all of the previous exceptions you listed, so they might be onto something here?

 

[ghostofMecir]

Settle down. This is mainly due to Nadal's foot complaints after the match. A healthy rafa is always the favourite on clay

Nadal has a healthy complaint after every match. Bookies have been incredibly bullish on young Carlitos.

 

[Leandro2045]

How should we interpret these historical odds? Opening line from the book makers, line right before starting the game after accounting for placed wagers / public sentiment, something else?

It's an aggregator average of all bookmakers lines right before the match starts after the wages are placed.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Yes, you heard that right.

Since winning his first Roland Garros in 2005 Rafael Nadal has been the bookies favorite in 418 of his 421 (99.2%) Clay Court matches.

The three exceptions :

Rome 2016 vs Djokovic
Roland Garros 2015 vs Djokovic
Monte Carlo 2015 vs Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz (The Real Deal) becomes the second player ever to join this list over the past 16 years.

Bruh.... pause. How insane is that!!

 

[ArcspacE]

Hope Alcaraz crushes him into a pulp

 

[NeutralFan]

Ol’ Rog was favored in the 05 RG SF too.

BBC commentators were calling Fed favourite for 2008 FO final

 

[DSH]

Ol’ Rog was favored in the 05 RG SF too.

How naive they were!

 

[The_Order]

Ol’ Rog was favored in the 05 RG SF too.

Correct, but op did say since winning his first Rg...

 

[clayqueen]

Ol’ Rog was favored in the 05 RG SF too.

And '08 RG by the commentators; not sure about the Bookies.

 

[aldeayeah]

And '08 RG by the commentators; not sure about the Bookies.

The bookies got it right: Nadal 1.25 Federer 3.75 (bet365)

 

[DSH]

BBC commentators were calling Fed favourite for 2008 FO final

 

[junior74]

Carlos is clearly playing on a higher level than Rafa now. But Carlos will find a way to lose against his idol. It's a tough situation.

 

[mike danny]

Ol’ Rog was favored in the 05 RG SF too.

Do you have a source? I think Fed was favored in the 2006 Monte Carlo final(will try to dig up the thread). Nadal was coming off a first round loss in Miami(and hadn't played much that year due to injury), while Fed was at his most dominant. Bookies were pretty reluctant to make Fed an underdog anywhere at that time - which posters here talked about quite a bit.

Yeah, even though Rafa was already a beast on clay back then, you still had to favor the guy who was dominating overall and barely losing matches.

 

[travlerajm]

Carlos is clearly playing on a higher level than Rafa now. But Carlos will find a way to lose against his idol. It's a tough situation.

I watched the Alcaraz-Norrie match. Norrie is sort of a worse version of Nadal, and still won a set. I don’t think Alcaraz’s current level is enough to beat 36yo Rafa’s 80% level, but we’ll see.

 

[aldeayeah]

Yeah, even though Rafa was already a beast on clay back then, you still had to favor the guy who was dominating overall and barely losing matches.

They were near even, it's not like Fed was a big favorite. It was their first clay meeting too.

 

[junior74]

I watched the Alcaraz-Norrie match. Norrie is sort of a worse version of Nadal, and still won a set. I don’t think Alcaraz’s current level is enough to beat 36yo Rafa’s 80% level, but we’ll see.

Yeah, I just realised. Didn't watch, but losing at set to Norrie on clay is not good. And the match was overall close, it seems. But the overall level Alcaraz has shown lately has been way more impressive than Rafa's level against Goffin (who had 4 MPs, but lost as expected).

 

[Phoenix*]

He can definitely do some damage. I'm thinking Rafa in 3.

 

[DSH]

Carlos is clearly playing on a higher level than Rafa now. But Carlos will find a way to lose against his idol. It's a tough situation.

No, Nadal has already warned that the important thing is not what happens in Madrid but at Roland Garros.
Today is just a warm-up, nothing more.

 

[RS]

Yes, you heard that right.

Since winning his first Roland Garros in 2005 Rafael Nadal has been the bookies favorite in 418 of his 421 (99.2%) Clay Court matches.

The three exceptions :

Rome 2016 vs Djokovic
Roland Garros 2015 vs Djokovic
Monte Carlo 2015 vs Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz (The Real Deal) becomes the second player ever to join this list over the past 16 years.

Holy smokes

 

[aldeayeah]

Yeah, I just realised. Didn't watch, but losing at set to Norrie on clay is not good. And the match was overall close, it seems. But the overall level Alcaraz has shown lately has been way more impressive than Rafa's level against Goffin (who had 4 MPs, but lost as expected).

Norrie is a competent grinder with a forehand, that's usually enough to do OK on clay. His BH seems pretty ill suited to the surface though.

CARL being CARL, he chose to end nearly every point on his own terms instead of trying to focus on the opponent's weakness, with varying results.

 

[jl809]

He can definitely do some damage. I'm thinking Rafa in 3.

as a Nole fan would you prefer him to face Nadal or Alcaraz?

 

[zuluzazu]

Norrie is a competent grinder with a forehand, that's usually enough to do OK on clay. His BH seems pretty ill suited to the surface though.

CARL being CARL, he chose to end nearly every point on his own terms instead of trying to focus on the opponent's weakness, with varying results.

LOL you are seeling the toughness of playing on a clay court short

 

[aldeayeah]

LOL you are seeling the toughness of playing on a clay court short

I mean it's tough but the guys that do well tend to have the same things in common

Fitness
Movement skills
Consistent strokes (usually spinny)
Point construction skills and/or a reliable finisher (usually forehand)

Other than his flattish BH, Norrie has the right tools to be at least decently on the red stuff.

 

[Phoenix*]

as a Nole fan would you prefer him to face Nadal or Alcaraz?

Nadal but Carlos would be cool too.

 

[junior74]

Norrie is a competent grinder with a forehand, that's usually enough to do OK on clay. His BH seems pretty ill suited to the surface though.

CARL being CARL, he chose to end nearly every point on his own terms instead of trying to focus on the opponent's weakness, with varying results.

Yesterday he went from embryo (18 and younger) to baby (19-20). Let's see where he is as a child (20-22)

 

[Forgive Me Father]

Settle down. This is mainly due to Nadal's foot complaints after the match. A healthy rafa is always the favourite on clay

what is supposed to be settled down?

 

[Deleted member 762343]

Bump when Rafa easily handles Carlos.

Easily is a stretch. Nadal might win but either way, I doubt it will be an easy match for him. Regardless of whether Alcaraz is the favorite, I think he has better chances of winning easily.

 

[Leandro2045]

The bookies have had Rafa as the underdog on Clay four times over the past 16 years.

They have been right all 4.

 

[ronalditop]

They were right.

 

[Service Ace]

Bookies are smarter than TTW.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Don't think it's big deal now. He may remain underdog at Rg if he faced Djokovic.