How close is peak Djokovic on clay vs Nadals peak?

[GabeT]

Sure, ELO is useful within a year in terms or ranking players level play. I don't find it so useful for ranking all time levels of play though - not useless but it has too many issues for it to be any more than something to perhaps ballpark. There is no substitute for watching matches IMO.

The problem with watching matches to measure relative strength is that:

a) people reach different conclusions from watching the same thing and
b) people fool themselves thinking they are being objective (a well studied psychological phenomenon)

So, as a result, we have all these threads that go nowhere, debating who was best and why. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy them and they can be a lot of fun, but there is no way to prove anything with any level of objectivity.

The other day someone posted a Sampras-Agassi video. To some it was clear Sampras would dominate today's USO. To me, watching that match, I saw winners that Murray or Nole would have returned, possibly as winners for themselves.The historical ELO ratings bring Sampras and Agassi down because "they faced few great rivals other than each other during their peak years in the 1990s, yet both often lost early in tournaments and weren’t as dominant away from Grand Slams as they were in them." (taken from http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/djokovic-and-federer-are-vying-to-be-the-greatest-of-all-time/). That's the kind of analysis that you can't do by simply watching a match.

 

[GabeT]

Greatest dominance in clay (from http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/...-djokovic-and-roger-federer-and-rafael-nadal/)

Player Year Clay Ct Elo
Rafael Nadal 2009 2550
Bjorn Borg 1982 2475
Novak Djokovic 2015 2421
Ivan Lendl 1988 2408
Mats Wilander 1984 2386
Roger Federer 2009 2343
Jose Luis Clerc 1981 2318
Guillermo Vilas 1982 2316
Thomas Muster 1996 2313
Jimmy Connors 1980 2307

 

[NoleFam]

I don't understand the desperation to make every thread about Federer. It suddenly becomes Fed < Nadal but > Djokovic on clay once again. This horse has been beaten to death over and over. One beat Nadal 7 times and won all 4 of the big clay tournaments and one beat Nadal 2 times and won 2 (3 if you include Hamburg) of the big clay tournaments. Djokovic's peak on clay is not only greater but he is better. Is it that hard for you to accept?

 

[JoelSandwich]

I'd say Peak Nadal vs Peak Djokovic on clay would be like
6-4 6-4 7-6 to Nadal
It wouldn't be a blowout like some people are saying, but Rafa would still be in control for most of the match.

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

It's not close.

 

[Rafa the King]

I'd say Peak Nadal vs Peak Djokovic on clay would be like
6-4 6-4 7-6 to Nadal
It wouldn't be a blowout like some people are saying, but Rafa would still be in control for most of the match.

I agree, like 3 close sets but you never really think Nole will come back. How would Peak Rafa v Peak Nole on grass plan out you think?

 

[csmoove899]

.

 

[swordtennis]

Peak Djokovic cannot even beat post-peak Federer on clay (refer to 2011 French Open SF), let alone peak Nadal.

Djokovic beat Federer in straights in 2012 at the French. The year he won a major Wimbledon.
Man this is getting really old now. Come up with better trolling dudes.
Real old.

 

[JoelSandwich]

I agree, like 3 close sets but you never really think Nole will come back. How would Peak Rafa v Peak Nole on grass plan out you think?

Probably 5 sets but I don't know who would win. Nadal has a higher peak on the surface, but Djokovic is a tough match up for him on grass with his serve and return of serve combo. Also Nadal on grass has absolutely plummeted in recent years. While Nole has kept his level fairly consistent for the most part. Nadal could hang with peak Federer on the surface, but I'm not certain that that means he could handle Djokovic of 2015 on grass. Even though Peak Federer would beat Djokovic on grass fairly easily.

 

[csmoove899]

.

 

[GabeT]

Peak Djokovic cannot even beat post-peak Federer on clay (refer to 2011 French Open SF), let alone peak Nadal.

bad analysis. can't just look at anecdotes.

 

[CYGS]

Peak Djokovic cannot even beat post-peak Federer on clay (refer to 2011 French Open SF), let alone peak Nadal.

By the same token, peak Federer could not even beat baby Rafa. Everyone can play this game.

 

[tennisaddict]

By the same token, peak Federer could not even beat baby Rafa. Everyone can play this game.

I don't think anyone debated that.

Good Fed lost to Baby Rafa.
Peak Fed lost to peak Rafa.
Peak Novak lost to Good Rafa.
Peak Novak lost to Good Fed.
Good Novak beat old Rafa.

Achievement wise : Novak on par with Fed, unless you are going to pick all and sundry BO3 piddly masters.

Level wise: Fed greater than Novak.

 

[D.Nalby12]

In matchup Djokovic's peak level on clay is closer to Nadal than his against Federer. Overall against field Nadal has much higher level followed by Djokovic closely followed by Federer. I think Djokovic of 2011 would have beaten Nadal's prime versions on clay in BO5 but he would have lost Federer of 2006-07. Matchups matter.

 

[Steve0904]

He's not close. Nadal has too many great performances at RG and even in the clay masters for Djokovic to be close. If I put the 2008 Nadal up against the 2011 Djokovic, I'm taking Nadal all day and twice on Sunday. And that's not a slight on the 2011 Djokovic. It's more about how good the 2008 Nadal was and the difference between the 2008 and 2011 Nadal on clay.

For an example just look at the next year. Djokovic was better in 2011 than 2012 to be sure, but he was still in his prime. Now look at the results. Djokovic won a grand total of one set in 3 matches and that was in pouring down rain. Djokovic was well on his way to getting straight setted for the 3rd straight time before it rained.

Then for good measure he beat Djokovic in 2013 and 2014 too when both were considered toss up matches.

I'm actually sorry for Novak, I really am, but given what we know and what we've seen I just can't say Djokovic is close here because I think it's disrespectful to Nadal no matter how much you might not like him. His reign on clay was insane and it might be the next millennium or two before it's done again.

For what it's worth I think the only other player even allowed in this conversation is Borg, but Nadal gets the benefit of the doubt for not retiring early and winning 3 more RG titles.

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

Semi-flaccid 2012-2014 Nadal always got the better of Novak. I expect turgent like a bull 2007/2008 Nadal to simply have destroyed Djokovic on clay, necessitating the use of a crime scene tape and a psychologist specialized in PTSD.

The same could be said of peak grass/hardcourt Federer and peak Djokovic. No contest, really.

#WeakEraRetiredDrawvic

 

[tennis_pro]

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

In sum, Djokovic is neither the best clay player of this era (Nadal and Fed are better), nor the best grass player of this era (Fed and Nadal at their peaks are), nor the best HC player of this era (Fed clearly is, and Nadal is debatable, pre-injury, and even as late as 2013 puting Novak in his place).

Djokovic is probably the best indoor player of this era after Fed though. Props to him.