How come Federer was a better returner against big servers compared to Djokovic?

Third Serve said:
But back to Fed, I think these stats mask the effect of Fed going into cruise control on return games after getting a break.
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But also by far the most entertaining portion of every Fed match. He'd go full DGAF mode, especially once the return game got to 40-0. That's when you'd start seeing the tweeners and SABRs. He'd try to drop shot the return, break out the forehand slice, all that fun stuff.

Meanwhile Nadal could be up 5-0 and would fight for the bagel like it was championship point.
 
FlyingSaucer said:
Was Djokovic unhealthy from the start of his career right up to Jan 1st 2011, then?
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No, Djokovic was healthy, and very good, but he wasn't of championship caliper! He reached number 1 right after Wimbledon of 2011!

Makes sense, Federer could deal with Djokovic, but not championship-caliper Djokovic!
 
The eye test checks out on the premise of this thread...would be interesting to see if the statistics do too. But anyway like I said, if it's true it comes down to fed's combination of incredible hands, reflexes and racket control/awareness in particular. Along with mac (and rios), he's one of those players that just has an innate feel for where the racket face is...where a lot of players' 'stick save' returns would fly long or dump into the net, he just had an uncanny ability to catch it just right and keep it in play.

Isner talked about that in one of their matches in Miami afterwards, i remember in his interview he was like 'you guys don't get it,' was just like...flummoxed by fed's ability to control the ball on big bombs.

overall novak is clearly the better returner, but fed definitely had that unique ability to fight off the heat.
 
socallefty said:
Basically you guys are saying to defend Federer’s low return numbers on the career leaderboard that he was a much worser baseliner than Nadal/Djokovic and he sucked at winning return points on clay because his baseline game was lacking. Seems like an even bigger indictment of Federer being in the same class as his two big rivals for GOAT considering they were all power baseliners. SMH.:cry:
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More than anything, I was responding to your last point about Rafa being higher than Nole on the leaderboard. Need to normalize for surface to make a really meaningful comparison there. If they were exactly the same caliber returner on every surface, you’d expect Nadal to have better career return stats because he played a far higher proportion of his matches on clay, where the serve is most blunted and breaks of serve are most frequent. That does impact Fed’s career return stats as well, since he played even less on clay, but I agree there’s a definite exaggeration of his return abilities by some in the Fed camp. I think several posters in this thread have captured where Fed excels on the return and why it gives the impression that he’s the best against big serves – he’s got the quickest reflexes of the Big 3 and so could deflect big serves back into play without sacrificing his court positioning. Not sure the numbers bear out that he’s a superior returner against big serves than Djokovic is, but the gap between them is probably smallest when it comes to taking on high-powered first serves and largest when it comes to attacking high-bouncing second serves (so again, the impression is a little understandable, even if it’s not actually true).
 
SonnyT said:
No, Djokovic was healthy, and very good, but he wasn't of championship caliper! He reached number 1 right after Wimbledon of 2011!

Makes sense, Federer could deal with Djokovic, but not championship-caliper Djokovic!
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Djokovic won his first slam in 2008.
 
Fed’s problem is that his peak return stats only lasted 3 years. After 2006, he never again had a break% of 30%, or a RPW% of 41% or higher. He topped both of those numbers each year from 2004-2006.

At times, Fed’s return of serve vs bomb-servers was flat-out incredible(2007 AO semi, or even 2005 Wimbledon final). But consistently, I’d have to give Djoker the edge, especially over the long haul.
 
tudwell said:
but I agree there’s a definite exaggeration of his return abilities by some in the Fed camp. I think several posters in this thread have captured where Fed excels on the return and why it gives the impression that he’s the best against big serves – he’s got the quickest reflexes of the Big 3 and so could deflect big serves back into play without sacrificing his court positioning
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It's not an exaggeration, it's an appreciation and something that Djokovic doesn't elicit in kind. Many of us don't give two flips what anyone one standing twenty feet behind the baseline can return. Get your behind upto or inside the baseline and make consistent and great returns. If you can't do that, you're not in the running for best returner full stop.
 
Pheasant said:
Fed’s problem is that his peak return stats only lasted 3 years. After 2006, he never again had a break% of 30%, or a RPW% of 41% or higher. He topped both of those numbers each year from 2004-2006.

At times, Fed’s return of serve vs bomb-servers was flat-out incredible(2007 AO semi, or even 2005 Wimbledon final). But consistently, I’d have to give Djoker the edge, especially over the long haul.
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Roger really did dominate the weak era, specifically the years where he was without rivals!
 
socallefty said:
1st Serve return points won % - On ATP career Leaderboard, Nadal is #3, Alcaraz #4, Djokovic #6 and Federer #26.
2nd serve return points won % - Nadal #4, Djokovic #6, Alcaraz #24, Federer #113.
Total Return leaderboard - Nadal #3, Djokovic #7, Alcaraz #29, Federer #100

Individual Match Stats | ATP Tour | Tennis

www.atptour.com www.atptour.com

Leaderboard | ATP Tour | Tennis

Statistical measures of the best-performing players in three key categories in men's professional tennis.
www.atptour.com www.atptour.com

Yes, it includes clay which is one of the most popular surfaces in the world to play tennis and there is zero reason to exclude it. Federer could chip lower bouncing first serves better with his 1HBH and use the pace to return them deep. On higher bouncing, slower kick serves where he had to generate his own pace, he didn’t do as well. Similar to how he was a master on fast and low bouncing surfaces while slow, high bouncing clay was his worst surface. Considering how much of the tour is played on hard courts, it is a fantastic metric for Nadal to be ranked so high and above Djokovic who often gets lauded as the best returner.
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Makes no sense to mix all surfaces together when looking at stats.

Return stats are generally better on clay for all players, the more clay you play relative to other surfaces, the more skewed. Returning is also very different given the surface.

No sane person would say Nadal is a better returner than Djokovic.
 
Socallefty has put Djokovic fans in such a hole at the start using bad stats that it was almost impossible to recover.

Base stats without seeing surface difference makes zero sense. Especially knowing what the difference is between first and second serve returns.

It is what it is. Real stats have been put forward many times after that post.
 
Dont know (and dont care) exactly how Roger was compared to Nole. What i do know (which stats also support) is that Roger was extremely good on returning 1st serves on fast surfaces. Probably has a lot to do with reflexes also
 
Jonas78 said:
Dont know (and dont care) exactly how Roger was compared to Nole. What i do know (which stats also support) is that Roger was extremely good on returning 1st serves on fast surfaces. Probably has a lot to do with reflexes also
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100% agreed. Federer was great 1st serve returner even vs the very tallest players.
 
hoodjem said:
Wimbledon 2016 third round.?
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Djokovic already had a bum elbow by then, and it'd last til the middle of 2018! By which time, he'd win over Nadal!

Incidentally, during Djokovic's two years of discontent, Federer bagged his 3 slams! It was 3 of Federer's 4 post-'11 slams!
 
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Third Serve said:
Your interpretation here is faulty, IMO. I’ve seen clayqueen and the like post these stats but the fact is that playing lots of matches on clay gives these numbers a boost. Clay heavily favors the return game, so players who disproportionately play on clay will be favored here. Nadal, who has played a greater proportion of his matches on clay relative to the actual distribution of events on the tour, gets a significant boost, as do several other claycourters who padded their stats on the surface.

I also think a significant portion of this is due to Nadal’s excellent groundstrokes. IMO his 1st return is merely good, not as great as those of the other Big 4 members. So he wins his return points and games more on the strength of his baseline prowess, I think.

But back to Fed, I think these stats mask the effect of Fed going into cruise control on return games after getting a break. His service game is the strongest of the Big 4 by a massive distance, so he doesn’t need to worry as much about getting broken back after securing a break. So while he does try in most return games, he tends to relax when up a break which hurts him in these stats but doesn’t really reflect too much on the actual quality of his return. I think these stats below (correct as of the end of the 2022 season) shed a little more light on this.


Now I haven’t said that Fed’s return in general is up there with those other players (from 2004-2007 his 1st was definitely up there though). But the gap is nowhere near as big as raw RPW% stats would seem to indicate.
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Part of it is also the reverse of the Nadal thing though as well. Where he's just not as good as Djo/Nadal at winning points from disadvantage/neutral so even if his return gets him in a lot of points he won't convert at the same rate.
 
For this conversation I think we have to split up big servers into power/spin guys vs predominantly flat/slice big servers. Relative to his own astronomical standards Djokovic can struggle with controlling heavy top spin servers which Federer's return excelled against. But against more bludgeoning flat power serves Djokovic is amazing. Thinking the difference between like Roddick/Thiem/Opelka type action on serves versus like Del Po/Wawa/Zverev type action on serves.
 
The Guru said:
For this conversation I think we have to split up big servers into power/spin guys vs predominantly flat/slice big servers. Relative to his own astronomical standards Djokovic can struggle with controlling heavy top spin servers which Federer's return excelled against. But against more bludgeoning flat power serves Djokovic is amazing. Thinking the difference between like Roddick/Thiem/Opelka type action on serves versus like Del Po/Wawa/Zverev type action on serves.
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Not even that is true.

Djokovic struggles and Federer struggles as well. The numbers are here for all to see. Underrating of Djokovic return + slight overrating of Federer's is how you come to that conclusion.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Not even that is true.

Djokovic struggles and Federer struggles as well. The numbers are here for all to see. Underrating of Djokovic return + slight overrating of Federer's is how you come to that conclusion.
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Literally everyone struggles against great servers. Djokovic deals better with flatter power serves relative to heavy top spin power serves. Federer otoh was mostly unbothered by heavy top spin serves and it just has to do with stroke mechanics as well as return tactics.
 
socallefty said:
Was he though? I seem to remember Wimbledon losses by Federer to Raonic, Andersen and Hurkacz and offhand, I can’t recall any Slam losses by Djokovic to bots if you don’t consider Quarrey as one. Are there some stats to show this as my memory seems to indicate both of them winning against servebots at their normal 80-85% career winning rate with the odd losses here and there.
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Hurkacz was in 2021 when Federer was in his worst form, and querrey is definitely a servebot
 
It probably depends on how you define a better returner.

The overall return point win % which includes a returner's ability to neutralise the big serve and then win the point in a baseline game regardless of the length of the rally. Djokovic overall since his overall 1st serve return win % would be higher.

The return point win % which only includes the 1st big serve return shot and then the subsequent shot. Federer since he would have a higher 1st serve return win % in points with 1-3 shots only.
 
On herd courts, Djokovic is #2 on the career return ATP leaderboard, Nadal is #15 and Federer is #44.

Leaderboard | ATP Tour | Tennis

Statistical measures of the best-performing players in three key categories in men's professional tennis.
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On grass, Djokovic is #15, Federer #27 and Nadal #29.

Leaderboard | ATP Tour | Tennis

Statistical measures of the best-performing players in three key categories in men's professional tennis.
www.atptour.com www.atptour.com
 
Raz11 said:
It probably depends on how you define a better returner.

The overall return point win % which includes a returner's ability to neutralise the big serve and then win the point in a baseline game regardless of the length of the rally. Djokovic overall since his overall 1st serve return win % would be higher.

The return point win % which only includes the 1st big serve return shot and then the subsequent shot. Federer since he would have a higher 1st serve return win % in points with 1-3 shots only.
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And how did you come to this conclusion?
Data says EVEN 1st serve returns Djokovic is ahead of Federer for tall players.
There is actually no case for Fed to be better returner than Nole. Lets stop lying.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
And how did you come to this conclusion?
Data says EVEN 1st serve returns Djokovic is ahead of Federer for tall players.
There is actually no case for Fed to be better returner than Nole. Lets stop lying.
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Tennis Abstract has data on the number of points won in 1-3 rally length won. If you dig around and do the calculations, Federer is ahead on the 1-3 rally length return points wons.

Djokovic is the better baseliner than Federer which is why he has the overall better 1st serve return stats but if you drill it down by rally length, Federer has better return stats for shorter returns points.
 
Raz11 said:
Tennis Abstract has data on the number of points won in 1-3 rally length won. If you dig around and do the calculations, Federer is ahead on the 1-3 rally length return points wons.

Djokovic is the better baseliner than Federer which is why he has the overall better 1st serve return stats but if you drill it down by rally length, Federer has better return stats for shorter returns points.
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That means absolutely nothing.

You are asserting that vs BIG SERVERS only 1-3 rally pts matter and giving federer a gold star.

While Djokovic plays only 55% of pts 1-3 shots vs Federer plays 70% of pts 1-3 shots.

So what really matters is total first serve pts won, not a random 1-3 rally length pts won.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
That means absolutely nothing.

You are asserting that vs BIG SERVERS only 1-3 rally pts matter and giving federer a gold star.

While Djokovic plays only 55% of pts 1-3 shots vs Federer plays 70% of pts 1-3 shots.

So what really matters is total first serve pts won, not a random 1-3 rally length pts won.
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Not really... how do you take their baseline skills into consideration since there is a bias in the overall results. Baseline skills in extended rallies will inflate a returner skills and stats. There is a difference to return and baseline shots in a rally.

Like I pointed out, it depends on how you define a returner. Winning a return point or just the return shot itself.
 
Raz11 said:
Not really... how do you take their baseline skills into consideration since there is a bias in the overall results. Baseline skills in extended rallies will inflate a returner skills and stats. There is a difference to return and baseline shots in a rally.

Like I pointed out, it depends on how you define a returner. Winning a return point or just the return shot itself.
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At the end of the day we already have stats for both players vs players who are over 6'4"

So it doesn't matter if they won the pts in 1-3 shots or baseline rally. And guys who are that tall don't generally rally at all.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
At the end of the day we already have stats for both players vs players who are over 6'4"

So it doesn't matter if they won the pts in 1-3 shots or baseline rally. And guys who are that tall don't generally rally at all.
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Regardless of height, Djokovic generally tries to extend the length of a rally. If you were to look at his average return rally length, it would be roughly the same between the tall big servers and the average player on the tour.

Federer and Djokovic both have different return games so it is difficult to compare. Djokovic will neutralise the serve and win the point on his baseline terms whereas Federer will more likely try to win the points off the return shot.
 
Raz11 said:
Regardless of height, Djokovic generally tries to extend the length of a rally. If you were to look at his average return rally length, it would be roughly the same between the tall big servers and the average player on the tour.

Federer and Djokovic both have different return games so it is difficult to compare. Djokovic will neutralise the serve and win the point on his baseline terms whereas Federer will more likely try to win the points off the return shot.
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You are going in circles. Maybe you are making fair points but it doesn't matter here because the Original poster says Djokovic can't handle big servers as well as Federer. I have pinpoint focus on only that claim.
 
Angrybirdstar said:
for the sake of accuracy i calculated the true averages by accounting for the different number of return points in those matches

should be 29.93 1st RPW% and 55.73 2nd RPW% for Djokovic, and 27.57 and 51.58 respectively for Federer
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2% difference says Djokovic is better flat out on first serve. Within a pt I would say they are equal.
 
Has anybody in this tirade of a thread collated stats of the respective player against “big servers” to compare?

Fwiw I don’t think Fed is an overall better returner. I do think he has a better chip return though, and that sometimes troubles tall serve dominant players more than a deeper topspin ball. That said, assuming the premise of this thread is true, it might just as well be that Fed was more reliable on his own serve and that that gave him an edge.

But really, I suspect that the sentiments in this thread arise from a few isolated matchups where more than just the serve plays a role.
 
SpinToWin said:
Has anybody in this tirade of a thread collated stats of the respective player against “big servers” to compare?

Fwiw I don’t think Fed is an overall better returner. I do think he has a better chip return though, and that sometimes troubles tall serve dominant players more than a deeper topspin ball. That said, assuming the premise of this thread is true, it might just as well be that Fed was more reliable on his own serve and that that gave him an edge.

But really, I suspect that the sentiments in this thread arise from a few isolated matchups where more than just the serve plays a role.
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I have put stats 2 times. @Angrybirdstar has put stat 1 time. Are we both on your ignore list ?
 
SpinToWin said:
missed it the first time but I don’t think players over 6’4 is exactly what is being asked. Decent proxy probably but not quite it
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Yes decent proxy. Fed is not better at return compared to Djokovic.

What Fed is better at is keeping his own serve. And nobody questions that anyway. So useless thread by Op who got banned.
 
Makes me wonder though… would you see a concentration of matches against such players in later years of their respective careers? I feel we’re getting more unicorn like tall players (with good movement and strokes) in recent years, but I’m not sure that observation can be backed up with numbers.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
2% difference says Djokovic is better flat out on first serve. Within a pt I would say they are equal.
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One is returning at or near the baseline, one is 20,000 ft behind it. Not equal. That it is a 2% difference just goes to show how poorly Nole returns. He should be leaps ahead. Thank you for showing and admitting how much better Federer is.
 
mtommer said:
One is returning at or near the baseline, one is 20,000 ft behind it. Not equal. That it is a 2% difference just goes to show how poorly Nole returns. He should be leaps ahead. Thank you for showing and admitting how much better Federer is.
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20000 my ass fedfan
 
mtommer said:
One is returning at or near the baseline, one is 20,000 ft behind it. Not equal. That it is a 2% difference just goes to show how poorly Nole returns. He should be leaps ahead. Thank you for showing and admitting how much better Federer is.
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Federer was better at keeping his own serve. He was never good at returning. Djokovic was acknowledged to be the best returner of all time!
 
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