How do you rate Federer's chances at AO 17?

[joekapa]

The only obstacles I can see are Djokovic, Murray and Wawrinka.

Djokovic has declined mentally recently and could crash out early or be one the other side of the draw.

Murray is a MUG who's only slam win vs Fed came vs broken backerer. What weapons does he have to trouble Fed? I give this one 60/40 to Fed.

With Wawrinka you don't know who will show up. MUGrinka or STANimal who takes down Peak Djokovic. That said, Fed owned him at 2015 USO so?

I staked £200 on Fed at like 20/1 odds. Tasty £4200 return.

You could of fed and clothed 5 poor 3rd world children for a month.

 

[joekapa]

I seriously can't comprehend all the assertion that, "Well, obviously he won't beat MURRAY..."

What in God's name has changed about Murray beyond having a different number next to his name, that's suddenly going to turn around a one-sided rivalry that has, if anything, become even more one-sided in recent years?

Now, Novak has been well off form, and that's got to feel good for Federer and his camp. And maybe it'll be a little surprising if Novak can right the ship so quickly. But if peak Novak somehow does make an appearance? Of course he can beat Fed. What if Nadal somehow turns back the hands on Father Time's clock? Not expected, but if it happens, of course he can beat Fed. There are even a handful of talented, powerful, shotmaking guys from the field who, if they catch lightning in a bottle, are capable of beating Fed.

But Murray, no matter how well he's playing, has shown over and over again that he simply doesn't have any weapons with which to trouble Federer over a best of five. Andy's patience and consistency is a real weapon against the field, but against an all-time shoemaker who's seen it a million times, it's just target practice.

Fed doesn't need to avoid Murray to make a successful run, and in fact, probably hopes he gets Murray's quarter of the draw. Murray absolutely has to avoid Federer, however, or it's game over.

 

[KINGROGER]

You could of fed and clothed 5 poor 3rd world children for a month.

Think how many I can feed once a rejuvenated fresh Fed beats Murray in the final to win me over £4000?

 

[KINGROGER]

I seriously can't comprehend all the assertion that, "Well, obviously he won't beat MURRAY..."

What in God's name has changed about Murray beyond having a different number next to his name, that's suddenly going to turn around a one-sided rivalry that has, if anything, become even more one-sided in recent years?

Now, Novak has been well off form, and that's got to feel good for Federer and his camp. And maybe it'll be a little surprising if Novak can right the ship so quickly. But if peak Novak somehow does make an appearance? Of course he can beat Fed. What if Nadal somehow turns back the hands on Father Time's clock? Not expected, but if it happens, of course he can beat Fed. There are even a handful of talented, powerful, shotmaking guys from the field who, if they catch lightning in a bottle, are capable of beating Fed.

But Murray, no matter how well he's playing, has shown over and over again that he simply doesn't have any weapons with which to trouble Federer over a best of five. Andy's patience and consistency is a real weapon against the field, but against an all-time shoemaker who's seen it a million times, it's just target practice.

Fed doesn't need to avoid Murray to make a successful run, and in fact, probably hopes he gets Murray's quarter of the draw. Murray absolutely has to avoid Federer, however, or it's game over.

Absolutely brilliant spot on post.

Murray hasn't changed much as a player, he's been doing a lot of the same stuff but a bit more consistent vs the field of mugs, Fed vanished from the tour and Djokovic started crashing out early and having mental problems.

This enabled him to reach number 1, with commendable consistency and a GOAT level indoor season.

But he's still a weaponless pusher who has nothing to harm Federer with. Fed struggles vs GOATing ball bashers playing their best game ever (Cilic, Raonic, Berdych, Tsonga) or ATG like Djokovic (at post prime/grandad age anyway). He doesn't have a problem with defensive pushers with WTA level forehand / 2nd serve.

 

[joekapa]

Think how many I can feed once a rejuvenated fresh Fed beats Murray in the final to win me over £4000?

A fool and his money are soon parted.

Betting and emotions, don't mix.

 

[SinjinCooper]

Wishful thinking doesn't make Murray a better player. Good luck with memes in the new year. I'll stick with history and logic.

 

[Tiki-Taka]

Wishful thinking doesn't make Murray a better player. Good luck with memes in the new year. I'll stick with history and logic.

When did logic ever support a 35 year old player (who hasn't won a Slam in over 4 years) winning a Slam on his first tournament appearance in six months?

 

[Goosehead]

looks good in periscope vid.

will win ao2017.

book it you gimpy clowns.

 

[KINGROGER]

When did logic ever support a 35 year old player (who hasn't won a Slam in over 4 years) winning a Slam on his first tournament appearance in six months?

Because his only major obstacles to winning a grand slam recently have been Djokovic and injury.

Murray isn't a threat.

 

[beard]

It would be his 6th final. Murray is the only guy ever to have lost 5 finals at the same slam. He's lost 4 to Novak and 1 to Roger.

Novak USO?
Lendl USO?
Maybe you meant 5 finals without win?

 

[joekapa]

Wishful thinking doesn't make Murray a better player. Good luck with memes in the new year. I'll stick with history and logic.

Logic is a 36 y.o Federer beating the world number one this year ?

 

[SinjinCooper]

History's what tells you the sun has risen in the east every day of recorded history. Logic's what tells you that this means it'll probably rise in the east tomorrow.

 

[Krish872007]

Except that the sun rising in the east every day is a mathematical certainty.

There are no certainties at the AO. Hardly a relevant comparison.

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

Comparing Federer's chances at AO to the sun rising...

 

[caulcano]

There are too many ball-bashers that can take out Federer so I don't rate his chances.

Perhaps making the 2nd week would be a massive achievement given the circumstances.

 

[Sysyphus]

What in God's name has changed about Murray beyond having a different number next to his name, that's suddenly going to turn around a one-sided rivalry that has, if anything, become even more one-sided in recent years?

Andy's patience and consistency is a real weapon against the field, but against an all-time shoemaker who's seen it a million times, it's just target practice.

Fed doesn't need to avoid Murray to make a successful run, and in fact, probably hopes he gets Murray's quarter of the draw. Murray absolutely has to avoid Federer, however, or it's game over.

There are some real gems in here, but the last one really topped the whole thing off! (love the reference to Fed as an all-time shoemaker by the way!)

 

[kingcheetah]

It all depends on the draw. Honestly, I think that having to play better players earlier will hurt him, so I suspect he gets to the round of 16, quarterfinals at best. I'd love to see him win, but he's got a TON of mileage on his body and will be rusty. I'm laughing at the idea that Murray doesn't want a match with Federer-- you have a guy who is going to be lacking conditioning/consistency(relative) playing against a guy who specializes in dragging out points. Fed wants NO PART in playing against a Djoko/Murray/Nadal type early. What could really wear him down quickly is if he gets a few defenders in a row, ie Ferrer.

 

[KINGROGER]

It's almost as if half of you have never seen Murray or Federer play.

Him being number 1 doesn't make any difference to his match up with Federer. He has NO weapons of any note, a WTA esque 2nd serve and a top 50 forehand. Fed will pick him off like he's a pigeon. Murray is lucky Fed dropped to number 3 before 2016 AO otherwise he'd have been routed in the SF.

 

[Krish872007]

It's almost as if half of you have never seen Murray or Federer play.

Him being number 1 doesn't make any difference to his match up with Federer. He has NO weapons of any note, a WTA esque 2nd serve and a top 50 forehand. Fed will pick him off like he's a pigeon. Murray is lucky Fed dropped to number 3 before 2016 AO otherwise he'd have been routed in the SF.

The last 5 matches have no relevance now. Federer is returning from a long injury layoff and will probably struggle to get his consistency going. And he's 35 years old. Murray, meanwhile is in the form of his life and has Lendl in his camp again. Even in 2012-14, Fed led 2-1 in Slams against Lendl & Murray combo, but Murray whacked Fed at the AO in 2013 when he was playing great, and Fed's level might be even worse now compared to then

 

[batz]

Dubble poast

 

[batz]

Novak USO?
Lendl USO?
Maybe you meant 5 finals without win?

I did - should have been clearer. Thanks

 

[SpinToWin]

I'm trying to play a game of "troll or fanboy?" with this thread....


It's tough yo.

 

[Triskadekaphilia]

Not good.

1 in a million.

So there's a chance.

Put it this way: 2015 Fed is more than capable of beating everyone on the tour going by current form right now.

Don't forget 2016 Fed didn't play terribly either. In 2013 Fed's confidence hit an all time low, but 2016 Fed was just being kept from match play from injuries, his losses to lower ranked players were more due to rust (and has proven soon by managing to reach the SF in Wimbledon).

In 2014 Fed came back revitalized at the AO and was only stopped by a red-hot Rafa. I don't see anyone in such form coming into the AO this year.

I seriously think Fed can make a decent deep run (not necessarily winning, but if he gets a good draw that isn't impossible either), even with a bad seeding, I think he can cause one or two upsets and make the QF minimum. Regardless of what happens, I do hope Fed will have to play one of the top guys, just to see where his game is at. I'll be very much looking forward to the tournament.

And yes I still think Fed can beat Murray.

 

[Tiki-Taka]

Because his only major obstacles to winning a grand slam recently have been Djokovic and injury.

Murray isn't a threat.

He won't be as good as he was in 2014-16 and back then he still lost to several players at Slams, not just Djokovic. The list at best of three events is even bigger. Let's be realistic, he isn't among candidates for the Australian Open, no matter how much a lot of us want him to be.

 

[Soul_Evisceration]

He is indeed a clown posing as a serious and objective poster. But once you call him out on that he gets all defensive and plays the victim card. Pathetic, he can't even man up and admit what he is.

That's what happens when you talk to guys that swings on the other side of the bat. They can be mentally unstable at times.

 

[KINGROGER]

The last 5 matches have no relevance now. Federer is returning from a long injury layoff and will probably struggle to get his consistency going. And he's 35 years old. Murray, meanwhile is in the form of his life and has Lendl in his camp again. Even in 2012-14, Fed led 2-1 in Slams against Lendl & Murray combo, but Murray whacked Fed at the AO in 2013 when he was playing great, and Fed's level might be even worse now compared to then

I wouldn't call a "close 5 setter" a "whacking" by Murray. And even then, Fed had back and racket issues. 2012,2014 AO Fed would've won that one in 3 or 4.

Fed owns his pigeon Murray at slams and WTF. I'm not talking about form, but more match ups. Even at his new height of number 1, Murray is still an inferior version of Djokovic but slices more, has a weaker sometimes WTA esque forehand, WTA esque second serve.

It's only 1 year on from 2016 AO, and the level Fed displayed there would've beaten Murray in the same tournament, and at Wimbledon.

 

[TheMusicLover]

It's almost as if half of you have never seen Murray or Federer play.

Him being number 1 doesn't make any difference to his match up with Federer. He has NO weapons of any note, a WTA esque 2nd serve and a top 50 forehand. Fed will pick him off like he's a pigeon. Murray is lucky Fed dropped to number 3 before 2016 AO otherwise he'd have been routed in the SF.

To me it's pretty obvious that YOU haven't watched Murray play during the past couple of months in 2016. (or any tennis match at all past Wimbledon).

As for Fed: noone has.

Bad troll attempt, 3/10.

 

[KINGROGER]

To me it's pretty obvious that YOU haven't watched Murray play during the past couple of months in 2016. (or any tennis match at all past Wimbledon).

As for Fed: noone has.

Bad troll attempt, 3/10.

I've been impressed by his consistency and determination. But all I've seen is the same old Murray performances on court same pusher style. Djokovic and Fed out the way so no one to really stop him (still managed to lose to a gong and moth and ball basher Cilic at real slam).

Besides, WTF Djokovic sleepwalked to the F and was pathetic. So all I've seen is number 3 Murray being the best player, once the top 2 players have both declined (Novak) or got injured ( Fed). Fair play to him for taking advantage though.

 

[maratha_warrior]

Fed will win AO 2017

 

[kingcheetah]

But can Fed play at a high (or high enough) level for 7 straight rounds... at 35 and coming off a 5 month injury layoff?

 

[tennisenthusiast]

I would give him a quarterfinal.

 

[Bender]

Put it this way: 2015 Fed is more than capable of beating everyone on the tour going by current form right now.

Don't forget 2016 Fed didn't play terribly either. In 2013 Fed's confidence hit an all time low, but 2016 Fed was just being kept from match play from injuries, his losses to lower ranked players were more due to rust (and has proven soon by managing to reach the SF in Wimbledon).

In 2014 Fed came back revitalized at the AO and was only stopped by a red-hot Rafa. I don't see anyone in such form coming into the AO this year.

I seriously think Fed can make a decent deep run (not necessarily winning, but if he gets a good draw that isn't impossible either), even with a bad seeding, I think he can cause one or two upsets and make the QF minimum. Regardless of what happens, I do hope Fed will have to play one of the top guys, just to see where his game is at. I'll be very much looking forward to the tournament.

And yes I still think Fed can beat Murray.

He may have been straight setted, but I don't think the Rafa that Federer played at the 2014 AO was 'red-hot' considering that Rafa barely won against Dimitrov and Nishikori. For a while it looked like Nadal would actually lose against Dimitrov.

 

[cockneyDjoker]

More chance of a R1 exit than winning the title.

Federer fans need to start being more realistic I'm afraid

 

[TheMusicLover]

More chance of a R1 exit than winning the title.

Federer fans need to start being more realistic I'm afraid

Please point me out to all those 'unrealistic' Fed fans.
In fact 99% of them apparently expect an early loss, and would be happy if he even manages to make it to the second week of the tournament.

 

[Roddick85]

I would be very surprised to see Federer make a deep run at the AO given the lack of match play he'll have when the event will be played and the fact that he will be ranked at his lowest in the last 15 years, meaning he will meet stronger opposition who can end his run a bit earlier than expected. Regardless of all that, I don't really care all that much that he's 35, and rusty, I mean he's Federer right, so if someone could do it, he's the first one that comes to mind. My real concern about the AO and his 2017 in general is how the knee will hold up. For all we know, he could play decent at the Hopman cup if he's not pushed around too much, show up at the AO and face stronger/motivated competition which may expose the knee as a career ending injury resulting in him having to retire for good. That is what I really fear.

 

[tennisaddict]

Let us hope Santa delivers a cakewalk draw at AO

 

[Pete Player]

I'm not quite convinced on neither Murray's nor Djokovic's form either.

Really an open field and if Fede is in shape as one would expect after 6 months of rehab, he may very well be in QF, if not higher.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[KINGROGER]

Let us hope Santa delivers a cakewalk draw at AO

Qualifier
Walkover
Retirement
British mug
Berdych
Thiem
Pigeon Murray

Looks good to me.

 

[Freddy Cat]

As good a chance as David Ferrer hitting an ace against Andy Murray.

 

[SinjinCooper]

Update?

 

[TripleATeam]

Update?

Wawrinka is still more of a favorite, especially in the finals. Federer and Raonic share the next favorite seat. After that, I think Dimitrov. Then Nadal.

 

[Krish872007]

QFs: Check. Good progress and this was what I hoped for initially having seen the draw. Did well to beat 2 Top 10 players back-to-back.

I will adjust this slightly now, all things considered and say that I would expect him to reach at least the SFs. A Final, though not required, would be great.

 

[tacotanium]

Before the tournament, none. Now a lot better. I still don't think he can win; I just hope to see a Fedal match. It could be historical especially Nadal being beyond his prime.

 

[Tennisanity]

More chance of a R1 exit than winning the title.

Federer fans need to start being more realistic I'm afraid

you talking about Fed or Novak? Novak fans need to look in the mirror. LOL.

 

[Tennisanity]

To me it's pretty obvious that YOU haven't watched Murray play during the past couple of months in 2016. (or any tennis match at all past Wimbledon).

As for Fed: noone has.

Bad troll attempt, 3/10.

Sad arrogance. Lots of guys like you on here who think they know it.

 

[underground]

Bump. Not so delusional now am I

Qualifier
Walkover
Retirement
British mug
Berdych
Thiem
Pigeon Murray

Looks good to me.

Well you got Berdych and the qualifier right. Pigeon Murray got swept away though. :/

 

[jga111]

Federer can win it appears. He has a very good chance. The 6 month break has done him more good than harm.

 

[BGod]

Frankly, if he has even reasonable movement, he can make it to the 4th Round on his serve alone.

That's the thing here.

Because of his ranking it's all match-ups from there but a semifinal is completely realistic if he gets those match-ups.

Having said that, since his last Final in 2010, he's only gone to a 5th set once losing to Murray (having been down 1-2). So he hasn't been very close to making it back to the Final, let alone in winner's form.

Chances are 1-5% just because he's statistically 5th most likely to win.

I please myself here.

With Murray and Djokovic out, that was 2 players above him and he took care of Wawrinka. Boom.

 

[maratha_warrior]

Fed will win AO 2017

 

[Steve0904]

More chance of a R1 exit than winning the title.

Federer fans need to start being more realistic I'm afraid

How about now, cocky?