How good is a 5-star 12-year-old?

[J_R_B]

So, I'm playing the local tournament that I play every year. They have Open, A, and B draws. "A" is defined as 4.0-4.5 ("B" is 3.5 or lower), although it's not an official NTRP tournament because a bunch of local (mostly high school) kids play as well, and they obviously have no NTRP rating, so there's a lot of leeway in the entries.

Anyway, entries closed yesterday, and one that caught my eye is a kid who is a 5-star rising 7th grader who played in the Easter Bowl 12s this spring. What should I expect from this kid? Is he going to blow away a 4.5 draw? If he were 14, I'd mention it to the director that it's probably not going to be either competitive or fun for him, but 12 is still very young. Being a 4.0, there are 50 people better than me signed up, so I have no expectations myself, but it still would suck if the biggest tournament of the year was completely uncompetitive.

 

[anubis]

He's most likely going to have fantastic strokes, footwork and technique. He's probably going to come out swinging for the fences, and in the first game or two will be hitting at close to 100% to see how you handle it. He'll try to intimidate you by going for big winners to see if you tighten up.

However, you have more match experience than he does. Just keep telling yourself that you can keep up your intensity for much longer and under greater adversity than he can. Steady him out, hit close to the baseline and make him beat you with sheer talent.

If you can wait it out, you'll get into his head and his game might crumble. It's a battle of wills.

Try to find one thing he doesn't do well and push that as much as possible. For instance: if he doesn't like overheads, give him some lobs. If his down the line forehand is weak, then intentionally open up that side of the court by hitting tantalizing cross courts to his forehand and invite the error.

Make sure your 1st serve % is high. Don't let up, that's your primary advantage. If you can't hold serve, you'll probably lose quickly. Don't count on winning many points with your 2nd serve unless you have a really good kicker that flies above his head (assuming he's shorter than you).

Good luck!

 

[JLyon]

depends, as an adult 4.0 you will have more game experience and may even over power him. Now he will probably be much more polished on strokes and footwork obviously, but should be good match, will be close to a 4.5 level I would assume.

 

[J_R_B]

I'm not playing him (yet). The draw isn't out, just the competitor list. The kid's ranking is top 75 nationally in 12s and he just won a sectional tournament in 14s. I'm thinking he probably shouldn't be in a 4.5 draw, but we'll see I guess.

 

[HunterST]

He's most likely going to have fantastic strokes, footwork and technique. He's probably going to come out swinging for the fences, and in the first game or two will be hitting at close to 100% to see how you handle it. He'll try to intimidate you by going for big winners to see if you tighten up.

However, you have more match experience than he does. Just keep telling yourself that you can keep up your intensity for much longer and under greater adversity than he can. Steady him out, hit close to the baseline and make him beat you with sheer talent.

If you can wait it out, you'll get into his head and his game might crumble. It's a battle of wills.

Try to find one thing he doesn't do well and push that as much as possible. For instance: if he doesn't like overheads, give him some lobs. If his down the line forehand is weak, then intentionally open up that side of the court by hitting tantalizing cross courts to his forehand and invite the error.

Make sure your 1st serve % is high. Don't let up, that's your primary advantage. If you can't hold serve, you'll probably lose quickly. Don't count on winning many points with your 2nd serve unless you have a really good kicker that flies above his head (assuming he's shorter than you).

Good luck!

Uhhh no. This a 5 star recruit. To get to that level, you have to have great strokes AND compete well.

There was a guy in my area that played division 1 tennis. Not sure what his star rating would have been (don't think they had it back then), but he was easily beating the top high school kids when he was 11.

There was a freshmen in high school who was a FOUR star recruit that played in a nearby open tournament. He beat a 5.0 in a competitive match to win the tournament. I'd say a 5 star 12 year old would be about that same level.

4.0 won't have much of a shot.

 

[gmatheis]

Yes this kid will likely win the "A" division if it's truly 4.0-4.5 level players.

But you have to realize that a low level 4.0 won't even have a competitive match against a high level 4.0, let alone a high level 4.5. So there are likely to be many matches that are not competitive scorewise in such a format.

Also sometimes playing as the underdog lets you relax because there is no pressure and you surprise yourself at how well you play (even if you still lose).

 

[tennis tom]

At 15 a kid going places should be able to give Fed a decent work-out. Make sure you get his autograph and a pic with him so you can say "I knew him when."

 

[beernutz]

I have no idea how good a 5 star 12 year old male is but I am predicting drama in his matches, especially if he has nightmare tennis parents.

 

[justinmadison]

Yes this kid will likely win the "A" division if it's truly 4.0-4.5 level players.

At 13 my son was a 4 star player and could beat all the 4.5's in the area. He was not beating the 5.0's but they had great matches. I was still beating him when he was 12 (I am a 4.5)

I would expect the 12 year old to run every ball down and hit nice consistent well placed shots. Try to keep the points short and hit a big serve.

I doubt you have a chance against a 5 star 12 year old.

 

[J_R_B]

Yes this kid will likely win the "A" division if it's truly 4.0-4.5 level players.

But you have to realize that a low level 4.0 won't even have a competitive match against a high level 4.0, let alone a high level 4.5. So there are likely to be many matches that are not competitive scorewise in such a format.

Also sometimes playing as the underdog lets you relax because there is no pressure and you surprise yourself at how well you play (even if you still lose).

Yeah, there are always lopsided scores if one of the top players in the draw plays one of the weaker ones. I'm worried about a situation where this kid is so good that there will be a lopsided score against EVERYONE in the draw. That's why I'm asking. Maybe the tournament director knows more than I do and kids who are 12 still aren't developed enough to be that good even at the very top level. It's been 30 years since I've played anyone who is 12, but a top 75 national ranking a spot in the Easter Bowl is pretty big time.

 

[J_R_B]

There was a freshmen in high school who was a FOUR star recruit that played in a nearby open tournament. He beat a 5.0 in a competitive match to win the tournament. I'd say a 5 star 12 year old would be about that same level.

Yeah, this is the big question. A 5-star 14 year old freshman would never play the A draw. How big is the difference between 12 and 14? I know kids are improving rapidly at that point, especially those getting intensive training in the sport.

There is actually a (different) 5-star freshman playing in the open draw who won a national open level 14s tournament. I'm definitely interested to see how he does against older guys.

 

[TennisCJC]

When I was in my 20s, I had 4.5 rating and played a year of 5.0. Some parents wanted me to play their junior son who was 13 years old and ranked 13th in southeast. I beat him every time we played. Close sets but he never won a set. A middle of the road 4.5 player should beat a 12 year old kid. A 4.0 that plays in the top 20% of the 4.0 level will be competitive and may beat the kid.

Let me know how it goes - I'm curious to see if my predictions come true or if I'm full of BS.

 

[JLyon]

believe me there is a big difference between a #75 12 y.o. and a Top 20 12 y.o.
You should be competitive with this young man if you play smart.

I have chaired the Super National 12's the past 4-5 years and there are huge differences between Top 20 kids and even top 50 kids, the seeds typically have held up.

So I think a 4.0 should be competitive with a Top 75 12 y.o.

 

[BIGJ98]

A 4.0 should be competitive because a 4.0 has match experience and probably has some shots that a 12 year old doesn't see at the junior level like angled slice, serve and volley, and chip and charge.

 

[gmatheis]

A 4.0 should be competitive because a 4.0 has match experience and probably has some shots that a 12 year old doesn't see at the junior level like angled slice, serve and volley, and chip and charge.

A high level 12 yr old probably has more court time in his life than most any 4.0. Don't count on inexperience.

 

[NSXER]

 

[J_R_B]

A 4.0 should be competitive because a 4.0 has match experience and probably has some shots that a 12 year old doesn't see at the junior level like angled slice, serve and volley, and chip and charge.

Believe me, if I have to play this kid, my first strategy is going to be to junkball him to death. Standing at the baseline trying to hit topspin rallies with someone like that would be suicide, but I doubt he plays against a lot of no-pace slice and junk shots.

 

[HunterST]

A high level 12 yr old probably has more court time in his life than most any 4.0. Don't count on inexperience.

Exactly.

5 stars are usually kids who are home schooled and traveling to play tournaments every week or close to it.

 

[tennis_ocd]

Believe me, if I have to play this kid, my first strategy is going to be to junkball him to death. Standing at the baseline trying to hit topspin rallies with someone like that would be suicide, but I doubt he plays against a lot of no-pace slice and junk shots.

Interesting. I've never seen a 12 yo five star but.... I'm thinking you'd better aggressively attack. Especially his serve. Very short points. Can't imagine a 4.0 winning rallies. My guess is he's going to run you sideline to sideline from the very first ball....

 

[tennisdad65]

~4.5 . Some old farts may be able to beat him with junk balls, slice/dice, drops and lobs.. But a normal 4.0 base liner with topspin strokes is gonna get beat badly by the kid.

 

[Topspin Shot]

Unless the kid is a 6'+ outlier, I doubt he would be that overpowering. Most likely, he will be uber-consistent with 99% perfect strokes and footwork, be able to hit all the shots, and move the ball all around the court with spin levels that adult rec players don't typically generate or see. Counting on him having a lack of experience won't work because as a 5 star recruit, he will have played a ton of tournament matches. Your best bet would be to keep the ball in play, identify a weakness (maybe bring him into net or slice a lot), and pick on it relentlessly. But in general, he should be beating 4.0-4.5 players easily enough.

This is the 12s Easter Bowl champion. Much better than a typical rec/club player. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTAbQ8utdV8

 

[LeeD]

Don't expect to get too many points playing right handed slight topspin tennis from the baseline.
You gotta slice, you gotta play net on smart approach's, you gotta loop some topspin to keep him honest, but you're not going to outpound him or her from the baseline.

 

[Maximagq]

Unless the kid is a 6'+ outlier, I doubt he would be that overpowering. Most likely, he will be uber-consistent with 99% perfect strokes and footwork, be able to hit all the shots, and move the ball all around the court with spin levels that adult rec players don't typically generate or see. Counting on him having a lack of experience won't work because as a 5 star recruit, he will have played a ton of tournament matches. Your best bet would be to keep the ball in play, identify a weakness (maybe bring him into net or slice a lot), and pick on it relentlessly. But in general, he should be beating 4.0-4.5 players easily enough.

This is the 12s Easter Bowl champion. Much better than a typical rec/club player. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTAbQ8utdV8

Love the Nadal strokes.

 

[Topspin Shot]

Don't expect to get too many points playing right handed slight topspin tennis from the baseline.
You gotta slice, you gotta play net on smart approach's, you gotta loop some topspin to keep him honest, but you're not going to outpound him or her from the baseline.

What is your obsession with lefties? The supposed lefty advantage won't work on a kid who's surely played many, many lefties.

 

[maggmaster]

I have trained with a 4 star player since he was 11, he is now 15. When he was 11 I was able to beat him pretty handily, as he aged he became more and more powerful. At around 13 we were splitting sets and at around 14 he was blowing me off the court. I am lucky to get 2 games per set and only if I am serve and volleying very well.

 

[tennis tom]

What is your obsession with lefties? The supposed lefty advantage won't work on a kid who's surely played many, many lefties.

Lefties :twisted: hate playing each other, they should have their own clubs.

 

[arche3]

What is your obsession with lefties? The supposed lefty advantage won't work on a kid who's surely played many, many lefties.

LeeD thinks if your a lefty you get a 1 level ntrp jump and 20mph on your serve lol.
I've played tons of lefties. It is awkward first few games if it has been awhile then you adjust ....

 

[wings56]

This is like asking... how good is a 4.5? There are people rated 4.5 who have had ATP points and there are people rated 4.5 who would struggle to win at a 4.0 local level. Now I know you know that his ranking is 75 in the nation, but that could be due to his skill or number of tournaments played. You could be getting anything with the kid.

 

[Conrads]

as a 4.0 you will definitely not beat him. I would say you would need to be at least a high level 4.5 to have a shot. I am around high 4.5 level close to 5.0 but just not there yet and play even with a 14 year old 3 star junior

the 3 star junior has played good matches against a 12 year old kid who was top 10 in the nation but he usually loses so i would say you would really need to be a solid 5.0 to beat a 5 star 12 year old

 

[LeeD]

Tennis is NOT "if A can beat B, and both lose to C, mean's C will beat YOU, when you're even with both A and B"......
Kid's tend, though not always, to play safe baseline topspin deep ball tennis.
Lots of lefties tend to play UNorthodox tennis.
Older adults often play the net game.
It's a mixture of different worlds, and the results can often be surprising.

 

[floridatennisdude]

Play like a pusher against him. Juniors hate that.

I'd predict the 12 y/o # 75 beats the average 4.0. May not against the stronger 4.0's, especially those in the 20-30 y/o range that have him physically outmatched. Most 4.5's shouldn't have a lot of trouble with him.

 

[justinmadison]

Can you give us a link to the draw?

 

[J_R_B]

Can you give us a link to the draw?

Draw will be out Friday.

 

[JLyon]

once Draw is out I will be curious to see the player and see if he will be playing the 12's in LR first week of August

 

[HunterST]

Play like a pusher against him. Juniors hate that.

I'd predict the 12 y/o # 75 beats the average 4.0. May not against the stronger 4.0's, especially those in the 20-30 y/o range that have him physically outmatched. Most 4.5's shouldn't have a lot of trouble with him.

No, man. A five star recruit would absolutely love to play a 4.0 pusher.

People are thinking of this as just a really good 12 year old that lives in the neighborhood. A five star recruit is a different animal. They are kids that practice everyday and compete almost every week. A 4.0 trying to throw up junk balls is not going to bother him.

 

[LeeD]

You can play junkball and do well, if you're good at junkballing.
Every ranked junior has played tons of matches against softballin pusher's, so unless he's impatient or bored, you're looking at double bagels.
You gotta play a game against him that he doesn't often face in competition, JUNIOR competition, and that of course, is a net game and lots of skidding slices that never come up.

 

[Topspin Shot]

You can play junkball and do well, if you're good at junkballing.
Every ranked junior has played tons of matches against softballin pusher's, so unless he's impatient or bored, you're looking at double bagels.
You gotta play a game against him that he doesn't often face in competition, JUNIOR competition, and that of course, is a net game and lots of skidding slices that never come up.

Do you think you would have a chance against the kid whose video I posted earlier in the thread? (He is a blue chip, not a 5 star.)

 

[LeeD]

C'mon, I"m 65 going on 80, physically.
After playing some tiebreaks and most of a set with President, I mentioned how I'm slipping downwards really quickly... President would say I"m as I advertise.
I didn't see that vid, but very few 12 year olds can hit hard enough to bother me. OK, this NorCal #2 in GIRLS, or nationally top 90 CAN, but only if I leave my shots in NML, allowing her to stand inside the baseline.
However, if she hit's mid NML, I can hit my ball to totally bother her, since she's only 5'2" tall, and needs more steps to cover alley to alley than a taller player.
So, if I"m lazy and off my game, I'm looking at bagels.
If I"m interested and somewhat normal in play, 4's either way.

 

[Topspin Shot]

C'mon, I"m 65 going on 80, physically.
After playing some tiebreaks and most of a set with President, I mentioned how I'm slipping downwards really quickly... President would say I"m as I advertise.
I didn't see that vid, but very few 12 year olds can hit hard enough to bother me. OK, this NorCal #2 in GIRLS, or nationally top 90 CAN, but only if I leave my shots in NML, allowing her to stand inside the baseline.
However, if she hit's mid NML, I can hit my ball to totally bother her, since she's only 5'2" tall, and needs more steps to cover alley to alley than a taller player.
So, if I"m lazy and off my game, I'm looking at bagels.
If I"m interested and somewhat normal in play, 4's either way.

Here's the video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTAbQ8utdV8

 

[goober]

Unless the kid is a 6'+ outlier, I doubt he would be that overpowering. Most likely, he will be uber-consistent with 99% perfect strokes and footwork, be able to hit all the shots, and move the ball all around the court with spin levels that adult rec players don't typically generate or see. Counting on him having a lack of experience won't work because as a 5 star recruit, he will have played a ton of tournament matches. Your best bet would be to keep the ball in play, identify a weakness (maybe bring him into net or slice a lot), and pick on it relentlessly. But in general, he should be beating 4.0-4.5 players easily enough.

This is the 12s Easter Bowl champion. Much better than a typical rec/club player. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTAbQ8utdV8

There is a big drop in level of play between Easter bowl champ and a #75 ranked 12 year old. Looking over the records of several players ranked in the mid 70s, many of them have losses to 4 star and 3 star players (although they have winning records against them overall) while ones in ranked in the top 5 almost have none. I think this kid is probably in the right division and is not guaranteed lock to win it depending on who enters the draw. If you get a 20 something ex D1 or D2 player he could have a very competitive match. If he could beat 4.5s easily I am sure his coach would have told him to enter the open division.

 

[Turbo-87]

Here's the video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTAbQ8utdV8

I couldn't even imagine having strokes like that. Someday I will have someone film some match play so I can be shocked at how bad I look. I did that once with serving and what I felt I was doing and what I saw were entirely different and embarrassing.

 

[Topspin Shot]

There is a big drop in level of play between Easter bowl champ and a #75 ranked 12 year old. Looking over the records of several players ranked in the mid 70s, many of them have losses to 4 star and 3 star players (although they have winning records against them overall) while ones in ranked in the top 5 almost have none. I think this kid is probably in the right division and is not guaranteed lock to win it depending on who enters the draw. If you get a 20 something ex D1 or D2 player he could have a very competitive match. If he could beat 4.5s easily I am sure his coach would have told him to enter the open division.

This kid is most likely significantly better than the 5 star kid in question, but I couldn't find a video of an average 5 star 12 year old, so I went with the next closest thing.

 

[J_R_B]

There is a big drop in level of play between Easter bowl champ and a #75 ranked 12 year old. Looking over the records of several players ranked in the mid 70s, many of them have losses to 4 star and 3 star players (although they have winning records against them overall) while ones in ranked in the top 5 almost have none. I think this kid is probably in the right division and is not guaranteed lock to win it depending on who enters the draw. If you get a 20 something ex D1 or D2 player he could have a very competitive match. If he could beat 4.5s easily I am sure his coach would have told him to enter the open division.

The Ex-D1 guys in their 20s (from real D1 schools, not Rider, LOL) aren't allowed in the A draw. They are in the open. One of the best local guys is a guy who played at Columbia who is maybe 25 or so now. He made the finals last year - it was his best showing. The cream of the D2 guys are in the open, too. There is one guy who graduated from a D2 school in a weaker conference who plays the A and is one of the top seeds.

The official seeds aren't out, but the tournament director wasn't as impressed as I with a national ranking in 12s, so I'm expecting him to be seeded maybe 7th or 8th, although I'm skeptical. My gut feeling is that a nationally ranked kid like that is just going to have so much more game even though he's only 12.

There are 67 people in the open this year, 62 in the A, and another 35 or 40 in the B.

 

[goober]

The Ex-D1 guys in their 20s (from real D1 schools, not Rider, LOL) aren't allowed in the A draw. They are in the open. One of the best local guys is a guy who played at Columbia who is maybe 25 or so now. He made the finals last year - it was his best showing. The cream of the D2 guys are in the open, too. There is one guy who graduated from a D2 school in a weaker conference who plays the A and is one of the top seeds.

The official seeds aren't out, but the tournament director wasn't as impressed as I with a national ranking in 12s, so I'm expecting him to be seeded maybe 7th or 8th, although I'm skeptical. My gut feeling is that a nationally ranked kid like that is just going to have so much more game even though he's only 12.

There are 67 people in the open this year, 62 in the A, and another 35 or 40 in the B.

Oh yes I forgot that this is not USTA, so the TD actually can have discretion with with placement into different levels. I think this would give the 12 year old actually a better shot to win it all then.

 

[tennis_ocd]

Here's the video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTAbQ8utdV8

No right handed Easter Bowl champion is going to take more than a game or two off LeeD.

 

[J_R_B]

Oh yes I forgot that this is not USTA, so the TD actually can have discretion with with placement into different levels. I think this would give the 12 year old actually a better shot to win it all then.

Right, the tournament is on TennisLink, but it's non-sanctioned. The rules on the front page say that the "A" draw is 4.0-4.5 and "B" is 3.5 and below, but ultimately, the TD has complete discretion to include or exclude anyone from any level.

With that said, the tournament committee really does an excellent job with this tournament. It's one of the premier tennis events in the area every year.

 

[TennisCJC]

Please post results of how the 5star boy wonder does against the adults. I really am curious. I think the top 4.0 will make it interesting for the kid and the kid will lose to a top 4.5 is my prediction.

Also, is the kid still 12 or has he turned 13? They improve quickly at that age.

 

[JLyon]

Would you post the link to the tournament site so we can all follow?

 

[tennis_ocd]

Believe it's this one:

http://tennislink.usta.com/Tournaments/TournamentHome/Tournament.aspx?T=141371

and player is IR. Challange him to table tennis afterwards.

 

[J_R_B]

He's also playing doubles!

His doubles partner is a 3-star 9th grader whose brother won the open doubles last year. They're probably one of the better doubles teams.