How good is De Minaur?

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lurker2025

Hall of Fame
Some people have compared him to Schwartzman or Goffin in terms of level. His win rate against top ten players is low and has decreased after 2024 but he has decent heads to heads against top ten players and has some top ten wins at slams. A person said a few months ago that he is much better than the " overrated" Casper Ruud. He has better heads to heads for the most part than Ruud against top ten or top 20 players ( more respectable losing heads to heads and more dominant winning heads to heads) but Ruud has a more decorated resume and a better win rate against top ten players. He has also been compared to Shelton with the consensus being that Shelton is somewhat better since he has a masters title, slam semis and more weapons. Shelton has a higher career-high but De Minaur might or might not break into the top 5 depending on Fritz and Cobolli's performances. He has often knocked on the door of the top 5 but come short. Some have compared him positively to Shelton because he has been more competitive than him against some players even though both players have a low win rate against top ten players. So where do you think he stands? Is he broadly as good as his ranking or has he overachieved? Would he be one of the worst top 5 players if he made it?
 
lurker2025 said:
Some people have compared him to Schwartzman or Goffin in terms of level. His win rate against top ten players is low and has decreased after 2024 but he has decent heads to heads against top ten players and has some top ten wins at slams. A person said a few months ago that he is much better than the " overrated" Casper Ruud. He has better heads to heads for the most part than Ruud against top ten or top 20 players ( more respectable losing heads to heads and more dominant winning heads to heads) but Ruud has a more decorated resume and a better win rate against top ten players. He has also been compared to Shelton with the consensus being that Shelton is somewhat better since he has a masters title, slam semis and more weapons. Shelton has a higher career-high but De Minaur might or might not break into the top 5 depending on Fritz and Cobolli's performances. He has often knocked on the door of the top 5 but come short. Some have compared him positively to Shelton because he has been more competitive than him against some players even though both players have a low win rate against top ten players. So where do you think he stands? Is he broadly as good as his ranking or has he overachieved? Would he be one of the worst top 5 players if he made it?
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I think he’s a good player overall. He doesn’t have the natural abilities of his mentor Lleyton, but he’s fast and rather consistent with his shots. I think he’s capable of winning a Masters if the draw falls just right for him with some upsets happening.
 
Jonas78 said:
Yeah id say its a mess behind Sincaraz and Nole
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I do not think it is quite that bad. Khachanov, Tommy Paul and Norrie feel like genuine no 8, no 9, no 10 quality players. I would say they are better than Carreno Busta based on what I have read about him and what I have seen of them. De Minaur might peak at no 5 and I think Berrettini who peaked at no 6 was better than him but I think he is at least a bit better than Schwartzman though they have a similar playing style
 
lurker2025 said:
But is it possible that someone who peaked at no 8 a few years ago would peak at no 5 or 6 now? Is this era that bad?
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De Minaur is better than Hewitt, he can’t win because the level of competition is much higher today.

There’s forever only 4 slams, but the pool of aspiring pros and top level players gets better and bigger
 
lurker2025 said:
I do not think it is quite that bad. Khachanov, Tommy Paul and Norrie feel like genuine no 8, no 9, no 10 quality players. I would say they are better than Carreno Busta based on what I have read about him and what I have seen of them. De Minaur might peak at no 5 and I think Berrettini who peaked at no 6 was better than him but I think he is at least a bit better than Schwartzman though they have a similar playing style
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A player like Berdych peaked at #4, and was a lot better than ADM. He just faced a whole other competition.

Look at the schedule of Big3 from 2017-2023, outside the slams many of the Masters was up for grabs. When Sincaraz peaked around 2024 and is playing full schedule its hard to win, but you (still) dont really have a tier 2 behind them.
 
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I'm surprised he's so tortured by this career performance and is going to take time off. He's objectively had a great career that 99% or more of people who attempt pro tennis don't achieve. No, he's not a Slam winner or contender, but still. I mean, I get that any pro athlete wants to do better, but you could want that and still see the bigger picture and enjoy the attempt at trying to do better and all the concrete accomplishments of your career.
 
Jonas78 said:
A player like Berdych peaked at #4, and was a lot better than ADM. He just faced a whole other competition.

Look at the schedule of Big3 from 2017-2023, outside the slams many of the Masters was up for grabs.
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Yes but the late 2010s and 2020 were not as competitive as the prime big three era. I do not think this era can be that much worse than the late 2010s or 2020. I think De Minaur is at least a bit better than Schwartman. Of course this era is weaker. In most eras Shapovalov, Bublik and Tiafoe would peak at no 11, 12 or 13, not in the top ten
 
lurker2025 said:
Yes but the late 2010s and 2020 were not as competitive as the prime big three era. I do not think this era can be that much worse than the late 2010s or 2020. I think De Minaur is at least a bit better than Schwartman. Of course this era is weaker. In most eras Shapovalov, Bublik and Tiafoe would peak at no 11, 12 or 13, not in the top ten
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I agree this era is more or less the same as 2017-2023.

Although Zverev is stepping up as a strong tier 2, the last years have been a mess behind top3 imo. Its not really a big difference on #5 and #13.
 
bluetrain4 said:
I'm surprised he's so tortured by this career performance and is going to take time off. He's objectively had a great career that 99% or more of people who attempt pro tennis don't achieve. No, he's not a Slam winner or contender, but still. I mean, I get that any pro athlete wants to do better, but you could want that and still see the bigger picture and enjoy the attempt at trying to do better and all the concrete accomplishments of your career.
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Someone lied to him and told him he was a bigger talent than he actually is. Australia got someone who wasn’t a complete clown so hyped him up but ADM just simply doesn’t have the talent to compete at the very top.
 
onyxrose81 said:
Someone lied to him and told him he was a bigger talent than he actually is. Australia got someone who wasn’t a complete clown so hyped him up but ADM just simply doesn’t have the talent to compete at the very top.
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The person who blocked me a few months ago said De Minaur is much better than Ruud but Ruud is clearly more talented, he has more stats where he is in elite company and he has more power and has a better serve. But he has fewer big wins than De Minaur so many people question his tennis ability.
 
Jonas78 said:
I agree this era is more or less the same as 2017-2023.

Although Zverev is stepping up as a strong tier 2, the last years have been a mess behind top3 imo. Its not really a big difference on #5 and #13.
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I think in the peak years of the big 3 era you needed to be well above average for a top 5 player to be a top 5 player. Fritz is a bit below average for a top 5 player and would have been a top 5 player only in the weaker years of the big three era. But on the other hand taking into accounts some form dips from the top players if you were a solid lower end of the top ten player you could still get into the top ten at some point. Humbert would be the equivalent of Fritz for the top 15 level.
 
soldat said:
De Minaur is better than Hewitt, he can’t win because the level of competition is much higher today.

There’s forever only 4 slams, but the pool of aspiring pros and top level players gets better and bigger
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Terrible take. Hewitt didn't regularly lose to bums outside the top 10, and Hewitt has beaten prime Federer and Nadal once or twice. How many times has De Minaur beaten pre-prime Sinner, pre-prime Alcaraz, or old Djokovic LOL!
 
4UTRMoutet said:
Terrible take. Hewitt didn't regularly lose to bums outside the top 10, and Hewitt has beaten prime Federer and Nadal once or twice. How many times has De Minaur beaten pre-prime Sinner, pre-prime Alcaraz, or old Djokovic LOL!
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De Minaur has wins against many top 10 players including Djokovic and Nadal, but the main point is that the level of tennis continues to increase and is higher than in the past.

Nothing about De Minaur changes the fact that Hewitt belongs to the weaker era of tennis, and that the subsequent eras became stronger than ever.
 
soldat said:
De Minaur has wins against many top 10 players including Djokovic and Nadal,
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De Minaur has beaten Djokovic as United Cup, which isn't even an ATP event. De Minaur has beaten Nadal twice from 2023-2024 (including one match at United Cup lol) which is the worst years on tour for Nadal (Nadal wasn't even around for the majority of 2023). Are you sure you were watching tennis in that time period?
soldat said:
but the main point is that the level of tennis continues to increase and is higher than in the past.

Nothing about De Minaur changes the fact that Hewitt belongs to the weaker era of tennis, and that the subsequent eras became stronger than ever.
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You haven't even provided any evidence. You didn't even answer my question as to why FAA, Shelton, Medvedev, and Fritz (who are all top 10 players in rankings!) have all had 1st round exits at Grand Slams in 2026 alone. Before you pipe up, please consider forming a rational argument! Your statement has as much credo as the flat earth theory if you are unable to formulate a coherent opinion!

How is Hewitt in a weaker era anyways when he was world #1 and has two slams, and two masters titles? Even if Hewitt's era was weaker, that's no way to explain that De Minaur has NEVER made a slam semifinal and has NEVER made a Masters final! If the level is increasing so much, how is it that Zverev won a slam without playing a single top 10 player?

I encourage you to write more than one sentence if you have any hopes of making your argument seem remotely intelligent. Unless this level of reasoning is the little bit that God has given you at birth??
 
I get that it’s frustrating for him to realise that in spite of being so high up the mountain that he will never get to reach the summit.

But some perspective is required, how amazing are you at something if you are ranked the 5th best in world? He can choose to focus on that he is better than over 8 billion people at tennis or that there are 5 or 6 that are better than him.
 
lurker2025 said:
But is it possible that someone who peaked at no 8 a few years ago would peak at no 5 or 6 now? Is this era that bad?
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There's currently 400 points difference between being ranked 5&8, but #1 is 9400 points in front of #5. The ranking order of players between 5 & 8 is virtually meaningless in terms of their quality at the moment. Everyone down to about #10 at the moment will likely have a turn at being #5 without it really reflecting any massive improvement in their play.
 
soldat said:
De Minaur has wins against many top 10 players including Djokovic and Nadal, but the main point is that the level of tennis continues to increase and is higher than in the past.

Nothing about De Minaur changes the fact that Hewitt belongs to the weaker era of tennis, and that the subsequent eras became stronger than ever.
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I admire De Minaur's heart and effort but IMO peak for peak the only thing his game has over Hewitt's is a couple extra average MPH on the serve and groundies; in every other facet, Hewitt takes it. The slight gap in power off the ground is more than made up for in superior accuracy/shot selection and as fast as Demon is, Hewitt at the peak of his powers before all the surgeries was just as fast if not faster while also being able to do more once he got to the ball. There's no doubting Hewitt has the superior transition and net game (for whatever that's worth in 2026), his lobs would still be the best on tour today and his overall return game solidly trumps De Minaur's as well - taken in isolation, his skillset isn't far off in any one category but as a total package there's a noticeable gap between him and Rusty.
 
FD3S said:
I admire De Minaur's heart and effort but IMO peak for peak the only thing his game has over Hewitt's is a couple extra average MPH on the serve and groundies; in every other facet, Hewitt takes it. The slight gap in power off the ground is more than made up for in superior accuracy/shot selection and as fast as Demon is, Hewitt at the peak of his powers before all the surgeries was just as fast if not faster while also being able to do more once he got to the ball. There's no doubting Hewitt has the superior transition and net game (for whatever that's worth in 2026), his lobs would still be the best on tour today and his overall return game solidly trumps De Minaur's as well - taken in isolation, his skillset isn't far off in any one category but as a total package there's a noticeable gap between him and Rusty.
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Not only that but if Hewitt had the time to adapt to today's modern game he would absolutely crush De Minaur and most of the top 10 except Sincaraz/Djokovic/Zverev and maybe even up with Medvedev. The biggest gap is in their mental and De Minaur's subservient "i'll never beat a better player" mentality doesn't give him the ability needed to win at the top.
 
4UTRMoutet said:
Not only that but if Hewitt had the time to adapt to today's modern game he would absolutely crush De Minaur and most of the top 10 except Sincaraz/Djokovic/Zverev and maybe even up with Medvedev. The biggest gap is in their mental and De Minaur's subservient "i'll never beat a better player" mentality doesn't give him the ability needed to win at the top.
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Hewitt was a fighter . He fought till the last point and never thought himself any lesser than ATG of his times.
 
4UTRMoutet said:
De Minaur has beaten Djokovic as United Cup, which isn't even an ATP event. De Minaur has beaten Nadal twice from 2023-2024 (including one match at United Cup lol) which is the worst years on tour for Nadal (Nadal wasn't even around for the majority of 2023). Are you sure you were watching tennis in that time period?

You haven't even provided any evidence. You didn't even answer my question as to why FAA, Shelton, Medvedev, and Fritz (who are all top 10 players in rankings!) have all had 1st round exits at Grand Slams in 2026 alone. Before you pipe up, please consider forming a rational argument! Your statement has as much credo as the flat earth theory if you are unable to formulate a coherent opinion!

How is Hewitt in a weaker era anyways when he was world #1 and has two slams, and two masters titles? Even if Hewitt's era was weaker, that's no way to explain that De Minaur has NEVER made a slam semifinal and has NEVER made a Masters final! If the level is increasing so much, how is it that Zverev won a slam without playing a single top 10 player?

I encourage you to write more than one sentence if you have any hopes of making your argument seem remotely intelligent. Unless this level of reasoning is the little bit that God has given you at birth??
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De Minaur has made a masters final though. He made it three years ago
 
4UTRMoutet said:
De Minaur has beaten Djokovic as United Cup, which isn't even an ATP event. De Minaur has beaten Nadal twice from 2023-2024 (including one match at United Cup lol) which is the worst years on tour for Nadal (Nadal wasn't even around for the majority of 2023). Are you sure you were watching tennis in that time period?

You haven't even provided any evidence. You didn't even answer my question as to why FAA, Shelton, Medvedev, and Fritz (who are all top 10 players in rankings!) have all had 1st round exits at Grand Slams in 2026 alone. Before you pipe up, please consider forming a rational argument! Your statement has as much credo as the flat earth theory if you are unable to formulate a coherent opinion!

How is Hewitt in a weaker era anyways when he was world #1 and has two slams, and two masters titles? Even if Hewitt's era was weaker, that's no way to explain that De Minaur has NEVER made a slam semifinal and has NEVER made a Masters final! If the level is increasing so much, how is it that Zverev won a slam without playing a single top 10 player?

I encourage you to write more than one sentence if you have any hopes of making your argument seem remotely intelligent. Unless this level of reasoning is the little bit that God has given you at birth??
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I had planned a rebuttal, but you beat me to it, and quite well I might add. Hewitt also won the YEC as well, so they aren’t even close accomplishment wise. Before the injuries, I would say Lleyton was a tad quicker as well. I would say he’s better in nearly aspect compared to De Minaur, since I favor his spot serving over De Minaur’s higher MPH on his flat serves. I like De Minaur, but he’s nowhere near Hewitt, especially prime Hewitt before all of the injuries.
 
Schwartzman/Goffin seems pretty on point. Similar styles too, no weapons
But De Minaur has outperformed either of those two with 11 titles already and his career should be far from over. Plus deeper runs in all of his major appearances.

And I lean toward De Minaur in terms of who married best as well. Schwartzman married a model but kind of one of those IG all make-up where it looks fake kind of models. I personally find Boulter to be a natural beauty, not the drop dead gorgeous but very pretty.

So i think De Minaur is actually above Goffin and Schwartzman
 
Chairman3 said:
Schwartzman/Goffin seems pretty on point. Similar styles too, no weapons
But De Minaur has outperformed either of those two with 11 titles already and his career should be far from over. Plus deeper runs in all of his major appearances.

And I lean toward De Minaur in terms of who married best as well. Schwartzman married a model but kind of one of those IG all make-up where it looks fake kind of models. I personally find Boulter to be a natural beauty, not the drop dead gorgeous but very pretty.

So i think De Minaur is actually above Goffin and Schwartzman
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But Schwartzman made a slam semifinal once
 
Chairman3 said:
1 semi is more anomalous than consistently getting to the quarters, in my opinion
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Which past player does Ruud resemble the most in your opinions? He has been as high as world number 2 but there has been skepticism in some quarters about his tennis ability because he has very few signature wins. But I think it has to be said De Minaur has a poor record against seeded players at slams even though he has some top ten wins at slams. While he has not many bad losses at slams I think this shows he lacks something to break through
 
lurker2025 said:
Which past player does Ruud resemble the most in your opinions? He has been as high as world number 2 but there has been skepticism in some quarters about his tennis ability because he has very few signature wins. But I think it has to be said De Minaur has a poor record against seeded players at slams even though he has some top ten wins at slams. While he has not many bad losses at slams I think this shows he lacks something to break through
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I don't really do much of the analysis on what players are whom and from when.

If I had to throw a name out there, Ruud is probably like a Moya, JCF, or David Ferrer. Obviously the former two each have a slam, so Ruud is one away from that but he's several finals appearances.
My answer is based on about 3 minutes of research
 
Chairman3 said:
I don't really do much of the analysis on what players are whom and from when.

If I had to throw a name out there, Ruud is probably like a Moya, JCF, or David Ferrer. Obviously the former two each have a slam, so Ruud is one away from that but he's several finals appearances.
My answer is based on about 3 minutes of research
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Id put Ruud/ADM clearly below David Ferrer. You have to remember that Ferrer played peak-Djokodal, Murray and a good Federer. It was clearly different from 2017-2023.

The big difference on 2017-2023 and 2024-2026 imo is that Sincaraz are playing a full calender consistently, Big3 hardly played a half calender 2017-2023, although they mostly played the slams. From 2020 Nadal hardly played half of the slams.
 
Jonas78 said:
Id put Ruud/ADM clearly below David Ferrer. You have to remember that Ferrer played peak-Djokodal, Murray and a good Federer. It was clearly different from 2017-2023.

The big difference on 2017-2023 and 2024-2026 imo is that Sincaraz are playing a full calender consistently, Big3 hardly played a half calender 2017-2023, although they mostly played the slams.
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I think Ruud is clearly more talented than ADM but ADM has some additional wins against top players even though he also played them more often
 
He is like budget Ferrer or Hewitt without champion mentality.
Lacks weapons to trouble the notorious duo and that aint gonna change anytime soon. However for a guy Who has no weapons, he has Done pretty well for himself.
 
I think ADM has lost the biggest strength in his game wich was SPEED. When he came on tour he was faster than a rabbit and that compensated for his lack of power and serve. That´s what shocked me the most at that time. The last couple of years he´s bulked up, gained muscle but now he´s trying to outhit his rivals from the baseline. I don´t think that´s working for him.
 
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Jonas78 said:
Id put Ruud/ADM clearly below David Ferrer. You have to remember that Ferrer played peak-Djokodal, Murray and a good Federer. It was clearly different from 2017-2023.

The big difference on 2017-2023 and 2024-2026 imo is that Sincaraz are playing a full calender consistently, Big3 hardly played a half calender 2017-2023, although they mostly played the slams. From 2020 Nadal hardly played half of the slams.
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I agree with most of this, but not the bolded part. Perhaps in 2024, they played a full calendar. But Sinner missed a bunch of 2025, and Alcaraz has missed a bunch of 2026. I also think that Sinner often underplays, skipping too many mid-level tournaments.
 
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