How long does Rafa stay at # 1?

titoelcolombiano

titoelcolombiano

Legend
How long are we thinking? He is in the box seat for YE # 1 but needs to do some more work yet before it is sealed. His Wimby run has taken some pressure of the big points he has to defend at the US Open.

Federer has 600 points to defend in Canada, nothing at Cincy, 360 at the US Open, 1000 in Shanghai, 500 at Basel and 600 at the WTF for a total of 3060. He is behind 2230 points in the rankings currently and 1740 points in the race.

Zverev needs to start performing in slams before he can hope to get near the # 1 ranking so i don't see it happening for him this year.

Djoker has become the wildcard defending nothing for the rest of the year meaning that his race and rank points are the same at 3355. He trails by 2405 in the race.

I'm thinking that provided Rafa has some decent results and plays most tournaments for the rest of the year he should finish # 1. The first challenge to his ranking will come if Djoker wins the AO next year. If Rafa survives that, he will then have to run the clay gauntlet again defending 4500-odd points.

I'm going to pick that he either loses it after AO next year meaning roughly 210 weeks at # 1 or after Wimby next year which will place him at about 234 weeks at # 1.
 
At the moment, he's definitely the significant favourite to finish 2018 as the world number one and after that it depends on his form and the form of others. If he can still walk out of Melbourne next year, regardless of his result, and still be the world number one, then he's probably gonna hold it all the way through Wimbledon as he has nothing to defend during the Indian Wells-Miami stretch and he should still dominate clay barring any injury. Assuming he holds it until the end of Wimby next year he'd have about 230-240 weeks at number one, which would put him at 5th all time ahead of Nole. If he can finish 2018 at number one, without losing it at any point in the process, then he'll be guaranteed 200 weeks by the time the calendar turns to 2019. I'm glad he's getting this late career stint at number one though as he's clearly won more than enough titles over the span of his long illustrious career to earn AT LEAST 200 weeks at the top spot, especially since they're players well inferior to him such as Connors and Lendl who have around 260 weeks at number one. The fact that he only had 140 weeks at number one like a year ago was a bit of a hole in his resume considering how the rest of his resume stacks up
 
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An early US Open loss could see him fail to even get the YE#1, especially if it comes with any injury niggles which affect him elsewhere.
 
Anyways whether you think he deserves it or not he will easily get past the 200 mark so your feelings do not matter. Then Zverev will take it from him next year and tennis will enter a new era. A new dawn.
 
He won't hold the #1 ranking until Wimbledon next year. It's virtually impossible. He will hold it until Dec--Feb but it depends on how well he does at the USO.
 
NoleFam said:
He won't hold the #1 ranking until Wimbledon next year. It's virtually impossible. He will hold it until Dec--Feb but it depends on how well he does at the USO.
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Why do you say it's virtually impossible? If Nadal wins the U.S. Open (admittedly, a big "if"), you'd have to think he's the heavy favorite to hold the #1 ranking until Wimbledon next year.
 
Antonio Puente said:
I doubt he'll care about it, but it's hardly impossible. From the WTF until clay, he has virtually nothing to defend. It just depends on how much he wants to play.
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With Djokovic, of all people, rounded back into form who is notorious for being a threat on every surface? With nothing to defend until Wimbledon next year? Yes it's impossible. Unless something terrible like an injury happens, Djokovic will be #1 this time next year. Nadal has more to defend at AO than Djokovic and Djokovic lost early in Miami and IW. He also didn't do all that great in the clay season for his standards. No way will Nadal be #1 in those circumstances.
 
buscemi said:
Why do you say it's virtually impossible? If Nadal wins the U.S. Open (admittedly, a big "if"), you'd have to think he's the heavy favorite to hold the #1 ranking until Wimbledon next year.
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Because of Djokovic. Federer is less of a threat to take the ranking from him.
 
NoleFam said:
With Djokovic, of all people, rounded back into form who is notorious for being a threat on every surface? With nothing to defend until Wimbledon next year? Yes it's impossible. Unless something terrible like an injury happens, Djokovic will be #1 this time next year. Nadal has more to defend at AO than Djokovic and Djokovic lost early in Miami and IW. He also didn't do all that great in the clay season for his standards. No way will Nadal be #1 in those circumstances.
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You would think at some point Djoker fans would stop guaranteeing victories a year or years in advance.:)

Maybe Djoker wins a lot of tournaments,maybe he doesn't, but he does still have to win them. He's certainly not guaranteed the #1 ranking at some point in the future.
 
Antonio Puente said:
You would think at some point Djoker fans would stop guaranteeing victories a year or years in advance.:)

Maybe Djoker wins a lot of tournaments,maybe he doesn't, but he does still have to win them. He's certainly not guaranteed the #1 ranking at some point in the future.
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It's basic math man and he doesn't even have to win a lot of tournaments. He just won Wimbledon which signals he is back and all he has to do is be above average and he will be #1 because he has no points to defend for a whole year. He only has like 1300 points to defend until Wimbledon next year which is nothing. He will be #1 and you can bump this thread a year from now.
 
Antonio Puente said:
You would think at some point Djoker fans would stop guaranteeing victories a year or years in advance.:)

Maybe Djoker wins a lot of tournaments,maybe he doesn't, but he does still have to win them. He's certainly not guaranteed the #1 ranking at some point in the future.
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Points to defend the rest of 2017
Nadal - 3550
Djokovic - 0

Points to defend in 2018 until Wimbledon
Nadal - 5040
Djokovic - 1355

Does it make sense now?
 
Antonio Puente said:
Djoker is 6000 points behind, much of it is on clay and Nadal also has a period from the WTF until clay where he has next-to-nothing to defend. There is nothing impossible about Nadal being #1 until Wimbledon, if he wants to play. No one is guaranteeing it. We're just trying to make you realize that it's hardly impossible.
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Yes he is 6000 points behind and that's 6000 points that Nadal has to defend and that he doesn't. I don't understand why this doesn't make sense to you. Nadal is defending points and he is just adding them. There are moments where Nadal can add more points but the catch is that those periods are also where Djokovic is defending less and can add points. So yes, unless Djokovic cannot play because of injury for an extended period of time or he just randomly turns into 2017 Djokovic all over again (unlikely), it is impossible for Nadal to hold that ranking for an entire year from now.
 
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I think I have to agree with my boy @NoleFam here. If Nadal still has 1 by YE, he could have it until the clay season, but it's unlikely he would hold it past then, once the previous years clay points fall off. Even if Rafa wins a bunch on clay , Novak is almost certain to do better than last year, whereas Rafa is unlikely to, so Novak will probably gain. The entire USO and on period, especially the fall and then AO/IW/Miami swing is Novak's best time of the year, and he has very little to defend starting next year from this year's AO/IW/Miami.

It's unlikely to imagine Novak doing worse in 2019 relative to 2018 from AO thru RG whereas Rafa certainly could. If Novak is already very close in points, he would likely pass him at some time.

Of course eventually, number 1 is just about how you do in 1 season (by the end of the year), so if Rafa plays better overall, he will gain back the 1 ranking, but it is unlikely he stays 1 all that time IMO because it will go thru a time period where A) Novak usually does better than Rafa and both did about the same this year and B) in the period where Rafa usually does better on clay, Novak did so poorly he's likely to improve on his performance more than Rafa is.
 
125downthemiddle said:
I think I have to agree with my boy @NoleFam here. If Nadal still has 1 by YE, he could have it until the clay season, but it's unlikely he would hold it past then, once the previous years clay points fall off. Even if Rafa wins a bunch on clay , Novak is almost certain to do better than last year, whereas Rafa is unlikely to, so Novak will probably gain. The entire USO and on period, especially the fall and then AO/IW/Miami swing is Novak's best time of the year, and he has very little to defend starting next year from this year's AO/IW/Miami.

It's unlikely to imagine Novak doing worse in 2019 relative to 2018 from AO thru RG whereas Rafa certainly could. If Novak is already very close in points, he would likely pass him at some time.

Of course eventually, number 1 is just about how you do in 1 season (by the end of the year), so if Rafa plays better overall, he will gain back the 1 ranking, but it is unlikely he stays 1 all that time IMO because it will go thru a time period where A) Novak usually does better than Rafa and both did about the same this year and B) in the period where Rafa usually does better on clay, Novak did so poorly he's likely to improve on his performance more than Rafa is.
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Exactly. The period where it's clear he will definitely lose that ranking is the clay season because I think he has 2680 points alone to defend even before he gets to RG and Djokovic only has 495 in that small stretch. Then you have to imagine that Djokovic will be amped for IW/Miami since he has underperformed there for 2 years in a row. He is notoriously much better at those two tournaments than Nadal. I see no mathematical pathway where Nadal can hold that ranking all the way through the clay season until Wimbledon. Like you said there is a possibility he can regain it later if Djokovic underperforms at Wimbledon or Nadal outperforms him later in year, but Nadal will lose than ranking by clay season 2019.
 
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Antonio Puente said:
In terms of #1, there's a lot of luck involved. Not every week at #1 is equal. Only a tiny percentage of Nadal's weeks at #1 have come while holding only one slam. Almost all have come while holding multiple slams. Nadal could have been lucky and picked up an extra 50-60 one slam weeks at #1.
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It's not luck. Nadal needs to hold multiple Slams to hold no. 1 because in many of his 1-slam years, someone else was simply better. 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 were all years where Rafa was playing well, but Djokovic or Federer were just better. You can also argue the time off he spent during 2009 and 2012 also hurt him. Only in 2012 did the year end no. 1 also only win 1 slam, but Djokovic was making the finals of every other Slam and swept the indoor season.

Djokovic and Federer also had to hold multiple slams to become no. 1 for the most part. Federer only became no. 1 holding no. 1 very briefly in 2012 holding Wimbledon. Djokovic had the most time as no. 1 holding only 1 slam in 2012, 2013 and 2014 but this was because he was also consistently winning masters and making Slam finals on all surfaces.
 
Nadal will mostly end the year no. 1 and stay there until clay season because he has no points to defend in the first quarter of the year. I'm not sure if Federer or Djokovic are ready to overtake a 1700-2000+ points deficit in the race at this point. Federer is simply not playing very well and choking winnable matches away, and Djokovic, despite his win at Wimbledon, might not be ready just yet to consistently go deep in every event he enters like before. If Nadal just does decently and makes QF-SF at his remaining events this year, I think he will be year end no. 1.
 
ohiostate124 said:
Ahh the injuries. He’d be undefeated if not for those........
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Injuries have robbed him of at least 20-25 weeks at number 1. Not saying he would have 250 weeks at #1. If you think that Haas could have achieved more without injuries, you also need to give some consideration to Nadal's injuries, even if they weren't as serious as Haas'.
 
The only way he is losing #1 is if he loses very early in USO or Djokovic goes on a tear, both of which aren't that out of the realm of possibility.
 
MichaelNadal said:
Have a few seats, Nadal's weeks at #1 definitely don't tell the full story. He's had weeks at #1 with higher point totals than some previous #1's (like Sampras), and if it wasn't literally for the best player in history, holding him at number 2 for 4 years he'd have had the most weeks in history easily.
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Can't argue with that, but he's got what he's got.
He'll very likely get more than 200 anyway so it's all moot. :)
 
There's an intangible to Nadal's no. 1 hopes for the rest of the year: How tired will he be after another full clay season and his most grueling Wimbledon ever? He hasn't played this much tennis on both clay and grass since 2011 when he was 25 years old. There is a possibility that he could be running on fumes by the end of the year, or even by the US Open. If he flounders due to accumulated exhaustion, and Djokovic goes on a tear, he could lose no. 1.
 
NoleFam said:
It's basic math man and he doesn't even have to win a lot of tournaments. He just won Wimbledon which signals he is back and all he has to do is be above average and he will be #1 because he has no points to defend for a whole year. He only has like 1300 points to defend until Wimbledon next year which is nothing. He will be #1 and you can bump this thread a year from now.
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This sort of logic is a bit flawed. Assuming Nadal wins RG 2019, then Djokovic must outperform Nadal to win. The fact that he has no points to defend is not in his favor - it means he is unlikely to get #1 by Wimbledon. If you're talking about after Wimbledon, then the points they are defending simply don't matter.

If Djokovic takes the #1 ranking, the fact that he defends little is in his favor. Until he reaches the ranking, it works against him, however.
 
TripleATeam said:
This sort of logic is a bit flawed. Assuming Nadal wins RG 2019, then Djokovic must outperform Nadal to win. The fact that he has no points to defend is not in his favor - it means he is unlikely to get #1 by Wimbledon. If you're talking about after Wimbledon, then the points they are defending simply don't matter.

If Djokovic takes the #1 ranking, the fact that he defends little is in his favor. Until he reaches the ranking, it works against him, however.
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No. Mathematically if Nadal wins RG 2019 he just stays where he is. If Djokovic gets to the SF, he adds about 360 or so points because he defended his QF points from the previous year. If he gets to the final, he adds 840 points. That's how rankings work. He doesn't have to outperform him at RG or outperform him at USO to add points where Nadal adds none. The fact that he has no points to defend is the sole reason why it is definitely in his favor.
 
NoleFam said:
No. Mathematically if Nadal wins RG 2019 he just stays where he is. If Djokovic gets to the SF, he adds about 360 or so points because he defended his QF points from the previous year. If he gets to the final, he adds 840 points. That's how rankings work. He doesn't have to outperform him at RG or outperform him at USO to add points where Nadal adds none. The fact that he has no points to defend is the sole reason why it is definitely in his favor.
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If Djokovic was defending a semifinal in AO and RG and USO and had a couple masters, he would already be #1. The fact that he's defending works against him in every tournament.

Imagine two scenarios. Let's say Canada was the next tournament, followed by Cincinnati, followed by the USO.
Djokovic defends nothing at any, Rafa defends R16, QF, and W, respectively.

1 (no change): Say Djokovic wins all 3. That's a 4000 point gain. Say Nadal is runner up at USO and loses R64 in the others. 1220 point gain. Nadal loses 1050 points. After USO, Djokovic has 7355 points. Nadal has 8260. Nadal remains on top.

2 (Djokovic is defending a final at Paris and WTF.): That's another 1600 points for Djokovic compared to Rafa after the tournament. Djokovic has 8955 after the USO and Nadal has 8260. Djokovic is now #1.

See, if Djokovic was defending points elsewhere in the calendar, it would be easier to become #1.
 
TripleATeam said:
If Djokovic was defending a semifinal in AO and RG and USO and had a couple masters, he would already be #1. The fact that he's defending works against him in every tournament.

Imagine two scenarios. Let's say Canada was the next tournament, followed by Cincinnati, followed by the USO.
Djokovic defends nothing at any, Rafa defends R16, QF, and W, respectively.

1 (no change): Say Djokovic wins all 3. That's a 4000 point gain. Say Nadal is runner up at USO and loses R64 in the others. 1220 point gain. Nadal loses 1050 points. After USO, Djokovic has 7355 points. Nadal has 8260. Nadal remains on top.

2 (Djokovic is defending a final at Paris and WTF.): That's another 1600 points for Djokovic compared to Rafa after the tournament. Djokovic has 8955 after the USO and Nadal has 8260. Djokovic is now #1.

See, if Djokovic was defending points elsewhere in the calendar, it would be easier to become #1.
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I think the word defending might be throwing you for a loop. If Djokovic was "defending" more points that would mean he had done better in more tournaments, and he already would have more points. When Djokovic's form dropped in 2016 when he had all those points to defend that's when it worked against him because he had a monster year the previous year, and he wasn't playing as well. That's how he lost the ranking. Now, the situation is different. He is on the other side of the spectrum. He is playing well again with nothing to defend basically. He has no pressure and no points until Wimbledon next year. That means he is steadily adding more and more points every tournament he does well in. I think you just misinterpreted what I was saying.
 
NoleFam said:
Points to defend the rest of 2017
Nadal - 3550
Djokovic - 0

Points to defend in 2018 until Wimbledon
Nadal - 5040
Djokovic - 1355

Does it make sense now?
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I can never find the point info I want. I only care how many points they each have so far this year, because at the end of the year it is all that matters.

Three guys have slams - Fed, Nadal, Novak.

As best as I can tell Nadal has 4500 points from wins plus whatever else he has picked up. No wins off clay all year.

I guess Novak has 2500 from wins, which look a long way back, but a win at the USO would boost things incredibly, and he's the most likely guy to pick up a ton of points in the fall. He's been my pick for the USO since he made it through week one of Wimbledon so easily. Not saying he's a lock - not sure anyone is this year - but to me he's the most likely winner if he keeps his form.

I think we're look at the Big Three ending up #1, #2, #3 by the end of the year, with maybe someone else slipping in there to get close.
 
Gary Duane said:
I can never find the point info I want. I only care how many points they each have so far this year, because at the end of the year it is all that matters.

Three guys have slams - Fed, Nadal, Novak.

As best as I can tell Nadal has 4500 points from wins plus whatever else he has picked up. No wins off clay all year.

I guess Novak has 2500 from wins, which look a long way back, but a win at the USO would boost things incredibly, and he's the most likely guy to pick up a ton of points in the fall. He's been my pick for the USO since he made it through week one of Wimbledon so easily. Not saying he's a lock - not sure anyone is this year - but to me he's the most likely winner if he keeps his form.

I think we're look at the Big Three ending up #1, #2, #3 by the end of the year, with maybe someone else slipping in there to get close.
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https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/rankings/singles-race-to-london

You just want race rankings? Nadal has 5760. Federer has 4020. Djokovic 3355.
 
NoleFam said:
I think the word defending might be throwing you for a loop. If Djokovic was "defending" more points that would mean he had done better in more tournaments, and he already would have more points. When Djokovic's form dropped in 2016 when he had all those points to defend that's when it worked against him because he had a monster year the previous year, and he wasn't playing as well. That's how he lost the ranking. Now, the situation is different. He is on the other side of the spectrum. He is playing well again with nothing to defend basically. He has no pressure and no points until Wimbledon next year. That means he is steadily adding more and more points every tournament he does well in. I think you just misinterpreted what I was saying.
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So the way you see "defending" is as a pure loss of points. I see defending as having had the points in your total, then they are dropping off. I see where our misunderstanding lies.
 
Yep. Rafa will be year end #1 this year.
He has not much to defend after US Open.
Next year I think will be Djokovic's 5th year end #1 I think.
 
NoleFam said:
it is impossible for Nadal to hold that ranking for an entire year from now.
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You're all over the place now, but I suggest you reference the word impossible.

It's fine if you want to predict it won't happen, but there is obviously nothing impossible about it.
 
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