How long does Rafa stay at # 1?

[TripleATeam]

Yep. Rafa will be year end #1 this year.
He has not much to defend after US Open.
Next year I think will be Djokovic's 5th year end #1 I think.

My prediction of rest of Rafa's year:
Canada: Final.
Cincinnati: R4.
USO: Semi.
Shanghai: Semi.
Paris: Quarterfinal.
WTF: Semi. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 2350

Nole:
Canada: Win.
Cincinnati: Semi.
USO: Final.
Shanghai: Win.
Paris: Quarter.
WTF: Win. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 4940

Nadal: 5760 + 2350 = 8110
Djokovic: 3355 + 4940 = 8295

I think Djokovic could overtake him by the end of the year with a few consistent good runs, and that's with Nadal's best indoor run in the last 8 years other than 2013.

 

[NoleFam]

I can never find the point info I want. I only care how many points they each have so far this year, because at the end of the year it is all that matters.

Three guys have slams - Fed, Nadal, Novak.

As best as I can tell Nadal has 4500 points from wins plus whatever else he has picked up. No wins off clay all year.

I guess Novak has 2500 from wins, which look a long way back, but a win at the USO would boost things incredibly, and he's the most likely guy to pick up a ton of points in the fall. He's been my pick for the USO since he made it through week one of Wimbledon so easily. Not saying he's a lock - not sure anyone is this year - but to me he's the most likely winner if he keeps his form.

I think we're look at the Big Three ending up #1, #2, #3 by the end of the year, with maybe someone else slipping in there to get close.

Yea as TripleATeam pointed out just look under rankings breakdown under the player profile on the ATP site. I think the USO is going to be very competitive and a number of players can win it. That makes it really interesting and I expect a really good tournament. Yea I've said in another thread that I suspect they will end the year 1, 2 and 3 when it's all said and done.

 

[NoleFam]

You're all over the place now, but I suggest you reference the word impossible.

It's fine if you want to predict it won't happen, but there is obviously nothing impossible about it.

I'm not hating on Nadal or trying to be negative but I just can't see him holding that ranking a whole year from now points wise. Maybe I shouldn't say impossible. Let me say it is highly unlikely.

 

[Sputnik Bulgorov]

My prediction of rest of Rafa's year:
Canada: Final.
Cincinnati: R4.
USO: Semi.
Shanghai: Semi.
Paris: Quarterfinal.
WTF: Semi. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 2350

Nole:
Canada: Win.
Cincinnati: Semi.
USO: Final.
Shanghai: Win.
Paris: Quarter.
WTF: Win. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 4940

Nadal: 5760 + 2350 = 8110
Djokovic: 3355 + 4940 = 8295

I think Djokovic could overtake him by the end of the year with a few consistent good runs, and that's with Nadal's best indoor run in the last 8 years other than 2013.

I think your predictions are sensible if Djokovic can find the consistency and reliability he is known for. He is also likely to pick up points from Beijing if he plays there, probably at least a final. Who do you think will win the USO if you have Djokovic pegged for finals and Nadal pegged for semis? Chokerer would be a shock pick at this point.

 

[HetTheGreaterer]

Nadal still looks good to get to 200+ weeks at #1.

.

 

[Antonio Puente]

It's not luck. Nadal needs to hold multiple Slams to hold no. 1 because in many of his 1-slam years, someone else was simply better.

Why in the same calendar year did Fed log zero weeks at #1 while holding 2 slams while Murray logged, I don't remember, 6-7 weeks at #1 with zero slams? There is luck involved. Not every week at #1 is equal.

This has all been broken down on this forum numerous times, but why with nearly identical six year numbers(Nadal was arguably better) did Sampras rack up twice as many weeks at #1 as Nadal? Luck. He wasn't any better. It's just that during that time period he was able to rack up a ton of one slam weeks at #1 because he lacked the competition.

 

[Mark jd]

Maybe Djokovic can finish 2018 as the world number one.

 

[Backspin1183]

.

..

 

[TripleATeam]

I think your predictions are sensible if Djokovic can find the consistency and reliability he is known for. He is also likely to pick up points from Beijing if he plays there, probably at least a final. Who do you think will win the USO if you have Djokovic pegged for finals and Nadal pegged for semis? Chokerer would be a shock pick at this point.

This is what I like to call an average prediction. I hadn't made an actual draw and path to the win, but instead thought about where I'd put them on average.

Djokovic loses before QF: 10%. Djokovic loses in QF: 15%. Djokovic loses SF: 20%. Djokovic loses F: 25%. Djokovic wins: 30%. On average then, I put him very slightly less than the finals, and round up to a final.

Djokovic is my favorite for USO depending on his indoor season, but he's wildly inconsistent until proven otherwise. There's plenty of ways for Nadal or Federer to beat him, and many dark horses will have a shot.

(Plus, it evens out the points more. I don't want my prediction to rely too far on his US Open performance. A win would certainly help him get #1, but shouldn't be entirely contingent on it.)

 

[Gary Duane]

I'm not hating on Nadal or trying to be negative but I just can't see him holding that ranking a whole year from now points wise. Maybe I shouldn't say impossible. Let me say it is highly unlikely.

USO will be the key. If he does well there, the trick would be to be careful about playing too much too soon.

 

[Sputnik Bulgorov]

Why in the same calendar year did Fed log zero weeks at #1 while holding 2 slams while Murray logged, I don't remember, 6-7 weeks at #1 with zero slams? There is luck involved. Not every week at #1 is equal.

This has all been broken down on this forum numerous times, but why with nearly identical six year numbers(Nadal was arguably better) did Sampras rack up twice as many weeks at #1 as Nadal? Luck. He wasn't any better. It's just that during that time period he was able to rack up a ton of one slam weeks at #1 because he lacked the competition.

Sorry, I missed your Sampras comparison earlier. When you put it that way, yes, there is luck involved, but Djokovic and Federer would compare favorably to Sampras too.

I'm comparing him to his biggest competition for no. 1, Djokovic and Federer. Relative to those guys, Nadal's weeks at no. 1 are exactly what he deserves because he never had their year-round consistency.

You can say that Federer was "luckier" at the beginning of his career but that luck evened out I'm his 30's when he faced younger ATG's. Nadal has had some "luck" too since 2017 since his biggest competition for no. 1 was a 36 year old guy who could no longer play a full season. Djokovic is probably the guy who really had to earn each and every one of his weeks at no 1.

 

[Antonio Puente]

I'm comparing him to his biggest competition for no. 1, Djokovic and Federer. Relative to those guys, Nadal's weeks at no. 1 are exactly what he deserves because he never had their year-round consistency.

Sorry, but when it comes to Djoker, I would have to go myth on that one. Nadal has more slams, more Masters more titles. Who has been more consistent? Also, ranking is a one year average. It doesn't matter if you win 5 clay tournaments or 5 tournaments spread throughout the year.

Again, much of comes down to luck. Nadal right now has more weeks at #1 while holding more than one slam than Djoker does.

 

[The_Order]

Yes he is 6000 points behind and that's 6000 points that Nadal has to defend and that he doesn't. I don't understand why this doesn't make sense to you. Nadal is defending points and he is just adding them. There are moments where Nadal can add more points but the catch is that those periods are also where Djokovic is defending less and can add points. So yes, unless Djokovic cannot play because of injury for an extended period of time or he just randomly turns into 2017 Djokovic all over again (unlikely), it is impossible for Nadal to hold that ranking for an entire year from now.

Nadal has bugger all to defend in Canada Masters (90) and Cinci (180). 270 points total.

If he does better than last year (highly likely) then pretty much just going deep at US Open should see him keep it.

It might get close after that though if Novak or Federer win the US Open.

Nadal won Beijing (500) and got to the final of Shanghai (600), reached qf of Paris (180) so that's another 1280 points he's highly likely to lose ground there but then he has nothing to defend from WTF last year either so I'm guessing that will even out.

That is of course, if he doesn't get injured.

 

[Sport]

It's not luck. Nadal needs to hold multiple Slams to hold no. 1, no. 1 because in many of his 1-slam years, someone else was simply better.

That's false. To win multiple Grand Slams is not a sine qua non condition to be ranked #1. Federer was ranked #1 this year, despite only having won 1 GS. Nadal is ranked #1 this year despite only having won 1 GS. Even Murray was ranked #1 the whole first half of 2017 despite having won 0 GS titles. Murray also finished as Year Ending #1 in 2016 with only 1 GS.

Also, Nadal has more seasons with multiple GS (4) than Djokovic (3), even though Djokovic has more seasons with 3 GS (2) than Nadal (1).

 

[weakera]

I think he wins the next three slams.

 

[Sport]

My prediction of rest of Rafa's year:
Canada: Final.
Cincinnati: R4.
USO: Semi.
Shanghai: Semi.
Paris: Quarterfinal.
WTF: Semi. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 2350

Nole:
Canada: Win.
Cincinnati: Semi.
USO: Final.
Shanghai: Win.
Paris: Quarter.
WTF: Win. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 4940

Nadal: 5760 + 2350 = 8110
Djokovic: 3355 + 4940 = 8295

I think Djokovic could overtake him by the end of the year with a few consistent good runs, and that's with Nadal's best indoor run in the last 8 years other than 2013.

You're predicting that Djokovic will perform better than Nadal in every single tournament. In your dreams.

 

[Deleted member 688153]

I don't think you would disagree if I said think Fed and Djokovic both deserve more than a single RG each (which I do).

Might have me there.
Still.

 

[NBP]

My prediction of rest of Rafa's year:
Canada: Final.
Cincinnati: R4.
USO: Semi.
Shanghai: Semi.
Paris: Quarterfinal.
WTF: Semi. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 2350

Nole:
Canada: Win.
Cincinnati: Semi.
USO: Final.
Shanghai: Win.
Paris: Quarter.
WTF: Win. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 4940

Nadal: 5760 + 2350 = 8110
Djokovic: 3355 + 4940 = 8295

I think Djokovic could overtake him by the end of the year with a few consistent good runs, and that's with Nadal's best indoor run in the last 8 years other than 2013.

LMAO WHAT? So from losing before the quarters for six consecutive tournaments, to going deep for the whole second half of 2018? I get that he’s won a slam is you can most definitely say he’s back, Queen’s and this Wimbledon have clearly shown that. But sheesh slow down. He is going to have many ups and downs. The OP is right. He will struggle this summer. Indoors he’ll be great again but this is hilarious man, some of you are really saying he’ll end the year #1 now? I can only laugh.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Nadal beating ultron on HC would be epic this year..... especially if he does it at the US Open for the 3rd time

 

[MichaelNadal]

LMAO WHAT? So from losing before the quarters for six consecutive tournaments, to going deep for the whole second half of 2018? I get that he’s won a slam is you can most definitely say he’s back, Queen’s and this Wimbledon have clearly shown that. But sheesh slow down. He is going to have many ups and downs. The OP is right. He will struggle this summer. Indoors he’ll be great again but this is hilarious man, some of you are really saying he’ll end the year #1 now? I can only laugh.

Agree but couldn't say it BC I'd be a "hater"

 

[Deleted member 756486]

Nadal beating ultron on HC would be epic this year..... especially if he does it at the US Open for the 3rd time

Have a feeling that Novak is gonna make up for that bizzare 2013 loss.

 

[FHtennisman]

Sorry, I missed your Sampras comparison earlier. When you put it that way, yes, there is luck involved, but Djokovic and Federer would compare favorably to Sampras too.

I'm comparing him to his biggest competition for no. 1, Djokovic and Federer. Relative to those guys, Nadal's weeks at no. 1 are exactly what he deserves because he never had their year-round consistency.

You can say that Federer was "luckier" at the beginning of his career but that luck evened out I'm his 30's when he faced younger ATG's. Nadal has had some "luck" too since 2017 since his biggest competition for no. 1 was a 36 year old guy who could no longer play a full season. Djokovic is probably the guy who really had to earn each and every one of his weeks at no 1.

If Rafa had a 35-36 years old Fed as his main competition for no 1, who did Novak have between mid 2014 to mid 2016?

 

[MichaelNadal]

Have a feeling that Novak is gonna make up for that bizzare 2013 loss.

Nothing bizarre about confident Rafa being aggressive on a HC beating anyone... even Imhotep

 

[chjtennis]

Depends how good Federer will be. Fed is the only real threat, and if Fed wins USO, it will be very close between him and Nadal.

 

[Sudacafan]

How long are we thinking? He is in the box seat for YE # 1 but needs to do some more work yet before it is sealed. His Wimby run has taken some pressure of the big points he has to defend at the US Open.

Federer has 600 points to defend in Canada, nothing at Cincy, 360 at the US Open, 1000 in Shanghai, 500 at Basel and 600 at the WTF for a total of 3060. He is behind 2230 points in the rankings currently and 1740 points in the race.

Zverev needs to start performing in slams before he can hope to get near the # 1 ranking so i don't see it happening for him this year.

Djoker has become the wildcard defending nothing for the rest of the year meaning that his race and rank points are the same at 3355. He trails by 2405 in the race.

I'm thinking that provided Rafa has some decent results and plays most tournaments for the rest of the year he should finish # 1. The first challenge to his ranking will come if Djoker wins the AO next year. If Rafa survives that, he will then have to run the clay gauntlet again defending 4500-odd points.

I'm going to pick that he either loses it after AO next year meaning roughly 210 weeks at # 1 or after Wimby next year which will place him at about 234 weeks at # 1.

Unless something extraordinary happens, Nadal is a lock for YE#1.

 

[Sudacafan]

I don't think you would disagree if I said think Fed and Djokovic both deserve more than a single RG each (which I do).

In RG, with Rafa around Fed deserves nothing more. Djokovic maybe one or two more RG’s.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Nadal beating ultron on HC would be epic this year..... especially if he does it at the US Open for the 3rd time

If both remain healthy I fancy Djokovic's chances, unless he faces Federer and plays a gruelling match before facing Nadal.

We will see.

 

[MichaelNadal]

If both remain healthy I fancy Djokovic's chances, unless he faces Federer and plays a gruelling match before facing Nadal.

We will see.

I understand why, but at the same time, people really sell Nadal short against Djokovic in slams. It shouldn't be a big surprise if he wins....

 

[tennisaddict]

If both remain healthy I fancy Djokovic's chances, unless he faces Federer and plays a gruelling match before facing Nadal.

We will see.

If we are going to get a Djoker-Nadal finals, it is only fair both of them avoid Federer. The one who has to face both is at a huge disadvantage unless Cilic or Delpo brings it on

 

[kevaninho]

With Djokovic, of all people, rounded back into form who is notorious for being a threat on every surface? With nothing to defend until Wimbledon next year? Yes it's impossible. Unless something terrible like an injury happens, Djokovic will be #1 this time next year. Nadal has more to defend at AO than Djokovic and Djokovic lost early in Miami and IW. He also didn't do all that great in the clay season for his standards. No way will Nadal be #1 in those circumstances.

Um....Nadal didn't gain any points at IW and Miami ...

 

[kevaninho]

Everyone is presuming that Djokovic is going to dominate and win everything from now on. Got to love this place, how people change their minds within a week.
Wasn't long ago Djokovic would never win a slam again

 

[NoleFam]

Um....Nadal didn't gain any points at IW and Miami ...

Djokovic lost in the 1st round at Miami and IW so he has a total of 20 points in both tournaments combined. That's basically nothing and they both can gain a lot of points there.

 

[Sputnik Bulgorov]

Sorry, but when it comes to Djoker, I would have to go myth on that one. Nadal has more slams, more Masters more titles. Who has been more consistent? Also, ranking is a one year average. It doesn't matter if you win 5 clay tournaments or 5 tournaments spread throughout the year.

Again, much of comes down to luck. Nadal right now has more weeks at #1 while holding more than one slam than Djoker does.

This is because when Nadal is playing well, he is good enough to win more than one Slam plus his usual clay masters, and this almost guaranees no. 1. When he isn't playing well, he almost only wins on clay, and Djokovic will more often than not outpoint him in that situation. It doesn't make his weeks at no. 1 more meaningful than Djoker's.

To put it simply - Djokovic's "average" seasons like 2012, 2013 and 2014 are more capable of attaining no. 1 than Nadal's "average" season. Even if he only won one Slam in those years, he always went deep into the others, won several Masters and swept the indoor season, including the WTF. I don't think it makes those no. 1 weeks earned in those seasons weaker if he only won one Slam. If anything, it makes them stronger because the competition was so tough.

 

[Sputnik Bulgorov]

If Rafa had a 35-36 years old Fed as his main competition for no 1, who did Novak have between mid 2014 to mid 2016?

Good point. He had 33-34 years old Fed, but he at least also had Murray and Stan. Don't forget Stan beat him in a Slam every year from 2014 to 2016.

As far as competition for no. 1 though, I guess you can also consider this as a "lucky" period, but there were still more people who could take points away from you in 2014-2016 than in 2017-2018.

 

[FHtennisman]

Good point. He had 33-34 years old Fed, but he at least also had Murray and Stan. Don't forget Stan beat him in a Slam every year from 2014 to 2016.

As far as competition for no. 1 though, I guess you can also consider this as a "lucky" period, but there were still more people who could take points away from you in 2014-2016 than in 2017-2018.

True, but I also bet that a 27-29 year old Federer would've preferred having an older version of himself, Stan and Murray to battle with instead of Nadal and Djokovic at their peaks.

 

[Sputnik Bulgorov]

That's false. To win multiple Grand Slams is not a sine qua non condition to be ranked #1. Federer was ranked #1 this year, despite only having won 1 GS. Nadal is ranked #1 this year despite only having won 1 GS. Even Murray was ranked #1 the whole first half of 2017 despite having won 0 GS titles. Murray also finished as Year Ending #1 in 2016 with only 1 GS.

Also, Nadal has more seasons with multiple GS (4) than Djokovic (3), even though Djokovic has more seasons with 3 GS (2) than Nadal (1).

Dude.. when Federer was ranked no 1 this year, he was still holding two Slams. Nadal has also held two Slams every week he's been no. 1 in 2017 and 2018.

Im not saying that you have to win 2 Slams to become no. 1. I apologise if that's how it came off. It simply helps your case immensely. The point I'm trying to make is that Nadal's 1-Slam seasons have historically not been enough to earn him no. 1. Djokovic's have.

 

[Sputnik Bulgorov]

Double post

 

[Sputnik Bulgorov]

True, but I also bet that a 27-29 year old Federer would've preferred having an older version of himself, Stan and Murray to battle with instead of Nadal and Djokovic at their peaks.

No argument there. I only brought this up because another poster inferred that Nadal had less weeks at no. 1 because of luck.

I think Nadal, Djokovic and Federer have as many weeks at no. 1 as they deserve. Their luck when it comes to competition has shifted throughout their careers but has mostly evened out IMO. All have had periods when they padded their stats, and all have e had periods when they didn't get no. 1 despite playing extremely well.

 

[TearTheRoofOff]

Too long.

 

[Incognito]

In terms of #1, there's a lot of luck involved. Not every week at #1 is equal. Only a tiny percentage of Nadal's weeks at #1 have come while holding only one slam. Almost all have come while holding multiple slams. Nadal could have been lucky and picked up an extra 50-60 one slam weeks at #1.

Everytime Nadal and Federer ended the year as Number 1, they won at least 2 majors. So he has to win the USO to finish 1.

 

[MugOpponent]

My prediction of rest of Rafa's year:
Canada: Final.
Cincinnati: R4.
USO: Semi.
Shanghai: Semi.
Paris: Quarterfinal.
WTF: Semi. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 2350

Nole:
Canada: Win.
Cincinnati: Semi.
USO: Final.
Shanghai: Win.
Paris: Quarter.
WTF: Win. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 4940

Nadal: 5760 + 2350 = 8110
Djokovic: 3355 + 4940 = 8295

I think Djokovic could overtake him by the end of the year with a few consistent good runs, and that's with Nadal's best indoor run in the last 8 years other than 2013.

Who do you have winning the US Open then? The only two other than Nadal and Djokovic that I could see winning are Del Potro and Federer but both of them have serious concerns. Personally I'd be quite surprised if the winner wasn't Nadal or Djokovic.

Nadal with a good run at the US Open should be able to hold number one until RG or Wimbledon next year. He'll probably lose points on the Asian swing, but he's almost certain to gain in the AO/IW/Miami swing, possibly rather substantially.

 

[irishnadalfan1983]

Rafa has to stay at world number 1 until of year to get to 200 right? He’s on week 181 now I think?

 

[buscemi]

Rafa has to stay at world number 1 until of year to get to 200 right? He’s on week 181 now I think?

He could lose the #1 ranking for a few weeks, regain it, and still hit 200 weeks by the end of the year.

 

[TripleATeam]

Who do you have winning the US Open then? The only two other than Nadal and Djokovic that I could see winning are Del Potro and Federer but both of them have serious concerns. Personally I'd be quite surprised if the winner wasn't Nadal or Djokovic.

Nadal with a good run at the US Open should be able to hold number one until RG or Wimbledon next year. He'll probably lose points on the Asian swing, but he's almost certain to gain in the AO/IW/Miami swing, possibly rather substantially.

Either of them could. My prediction isn't based on a real draw I made up, just what I think is reasonable. I think Nadal has a good chance of winning but also losing early. Djokovic is less prone to losing early, but is more likely to lose a final than Nadal.

So I just averaged it out to semi and final. Plus, if I said Djokovic USO win, many more posters would be coming after me saying that's completely unreasonable.

 

[TripleATeam]

You're predicting that Djokovic will perform better than Nadal in every single tournament. In your dreams.

Sure. Novak being better in every indoor tournament, like 2016, 2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010? And almost in 2009?

I don't know, it seems like that's a thing. There's only 2 indoor seasons where Nadal outdid Djokovic in the last decade. 2017, where Djokovic was absent, and 2013, where Nadal was a beast. No stopping Nadal that year. To be fair to Nadal, he was also absent during the entirety of 2012, so out of the last decade, it's 7-1 Djokovic if we don't include absent years.

(Confused indoor with HC season for a sec. My bad.)

 

[NoleFam]

Sure. Novak being better in every indoor tournament, like 2016, 2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010? And almost in 2009?

I don't know, it seems like that's a thing. There's only 2 indoor seasons where Nadal outdid Djokovic in the last decade. 2017, where Djokovic was absent, and 2013, where Nadal was a beast. No stopping Nadal that year. To be fair to Nadal, he was also absent during the entirety of 2012, so out of the last decade, it's 7-1 Djokovic if we don't include absent years.

Djokovic won Paris, Shanghai and WTF in 2013. Maybe you are thinking about 2010?

 

[Gazelle]

You only deserve what you get.

But what's the point of the word 'deserve' then?

 

[Rampart]

My prediction of rest of Rafa's year:
Canada: Final.
Cincinnati: R4.
USO: Semi.
Shanghai: Semi.
Paris: Quarterfinal.
WTF: Semi. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 2350

Nole:
Canada: Win.
Cincinnati: Semi.
USO: Final.
Shanghai: Win.
Paris: Quarter.
WTF: Win. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 4940

Nadal: 5760 + 2350 = 8110
Djokovic: 3355 + 4940 = 8295

I think Djokovic could overtake him by the end of the year with a few consistent good runs, and that's with Nadal's best indoor run in the last 8 years other than 2013.

The indoor season you've given to Nadal is worse than his 2015 season where he won 3RR matches at WTF and got to 2 500 finals in addition to everything you listed, you clearly didn't even try to look this up.

 

[Backspin1183]

LMAO WHAT? So from losing before the quarters for six consecutive tournaments, to going deep for the whole second half of 2018? I get that he’s won a slam is you can most definitely say he’s back, Queen’s and this Wimbledon have clearly shown that. But sheesh slow down. He is going to have many ups and downs. The OP is right. He will struggle this summer. Indoors he’ll be great again but this is hilarious man, some of you are really saying he’ll end the year #1 now? I can only laugh.

Djokovic won the semi final with some big and clutch serving when break points down in the 5th set. Nadal looked stronger from the baseline. I think Djokovic baseline game will be challenged by other players too on hard court.

 

[TripleATeam]

Djokovic won Paris, Shanghai and WTF in 2013. Maybe you are thinking about 2010?

2013 Djokovic was very good, but Nadal was almost as good. Problem is Djokovic wasn't better in every indoor tournament that year. Nadal won Canada and Cincinnati. That's why I had to leave out 2013, despite how well Djokovic did.