How long does Rafa stay at # 1?

[NoleFam]

2013 Djokovic was very good, but Nadal was almost as good. Problem is Djokovic wasn't better in every indoor tournament that year. Nadal won Canada and Cincinnati. That's why I had to leave out 2013, despite how well Djokovic did.

Canada and Cincinnati are outdoor US hardcourt series tournaments. Only Paris Masters and WTF are indoor as far as Masters level and up, but most people count Shanghai as part of that season as well.

 

[TripleATeam]

Canada and Cincinnati are outdoor US hardcourt series tournaments. Only Paris Masters and WTF are indoor as far as Masters level and up, but most people count Shanghai as part of that season as well.

My bad. Slipped my mind.

 

[GabeT]

Unless something extraordinary happens, Nadal is a lock for YE#1.

Nadal is ahead of Nole by about 2500 points and there are up to 7500 points available to win from Tier 1 tournaments until the end of the year plus 500s like China. A lot can happen

 

[TripleATeam]

The indoor season you've given to Nadal is worse than his 2015 season where he won 3RR matches at WTF and got to 2 500 finals in addition to everything you listed, you clearly didn't even try to look this up.

He did surprisingly well in 2015 indoor. The two times he performed better than 2015 were 2013 and 2007.

Furthermore, I didn't include ATP 500s in my point totals. He might have gone far in the 500s, but Djokovic practically has Beijing on lock by winning 6 times out of the last 9. 2 of those times he didn't play. If anything, including 500s would help Djokovic, not Nadal.

2009: 960
2010: 1045
2011: 245
2012: 0
2013: 1720
2014: 10
2015: 1140
2016: 10
2017: 780
(predicted) 2018: 940

Doesn't look too far off his previous totals.

 

[ewiewp]

My prediction of rest of Rafa's year:
Canada: Final.
Cincinnati: R4.
USO: Semi.
Shanghai: Semi.
Paris: Quarterfinal.
WTF: Semi. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 2350

Nole:
Canada: Win.
Cincinnati: Semi.
USO: Final.
Shanghai: Win.
Paris: Quarter.
WTF: Win. (2 RR wins)

Point total: 4940

Nadal: 5760 + 2350 = 8110
Djokovic: 3355 + 4940 = 8295

I think Djokovic could overtake him by the end of the year with a few consistent good runs, and that's with Nadal's best indoor run in the last 8 years other than 2013.

Points taken. Yes its surely possible.

 

[Julian Houston]

Nole will get number 1 very quickly next year. Latest by clay season. He will be the last number 1 in the big 3. Beyond 2019 i don't see them relevant anymore.

It can happen this year if he sweeps everything.

 

[ewiewp]

Yeah But winning ~2500 pt more than Rafa won't be that easy.

 

[tennis_pro]

Hopefully not too long.

 

[Eren]

As long as he has more ranking points than any other player.