How long will Novak's reign as world no.1 last?

#1
The re-emergence of Del Potro, Rafa to come back fitter and fresher, Federer still weaving magic, Murray the hard court specialist, is Novak's run a streak of form or the announcement of his true self's arrival? How long can he hold on to the ranking and how can it be wrested from him? And by who?
 

ledwix

Hall of Fame
#2
Well, he is clearly the best player on hard court, so I expect him to remain #1 at least until next clay court season...so maybe 10 or 11 months is my guess.
 
#4
He's got such a big advantage over the rest of the field, I don't see him dropping his no 1 ranking at least for 6-8 months.
 

FlamEnemY

Hall of Fame
#5
Well... With this win Novak already has 9695 points.

That is, 2000 ahead of Nadal.

I don't see him losing the #1 ranking for at least the rest of the year. Say, at least 6-7 months.
 

kanamit

Hall of Fame
#8
In light of how the rankings points are currently distributed, I would say at least for six more months. Probably longer, but not more than a year and a half.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
#11
The interesting thing is, it is not going to be easy for Nadal to take it back either. He has been outright the second best player this year. He has US Open to defend, finals of WTF, then after the AO, he has all those finals, and wins pretty much from IW to Wimbledon, so he will need to repeat or better his performance to gain ground, while hoping Novak gets injured or just goes off the boil completely.

Next year should be very interesting...
 
#12
The interesting thing is, it is not going to be easy for Nadal to take it back either. He has been outright the second best player this year. He has US Open to defend, finals of WTF, then after the AO, he has all those finals, and wins pretty much from IW to Wimbledon, so he will need to repeat or better his performance to gain ground, while hoping Novak gets injured or just goes off the boil completely.

Next year should be very interesting...
Is it possible that Novak will go off the boil? His team has managed him very well this year, pulling him out of a coupla tournies to keep him fresh.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
#13
It will certainly last for the rest of this year.Come 2012,he will have thousands and thousands of ranking points to defend so its going to be tougher to stay there.I have a hunch he'll spring an injury or two some time next year which will probably slow him down.
 
#15
REST of this year. after that he will be too drained by his Girlfriends to keep playing so well. and he will start to play worse..
 

mrDamien

Hall of Fame
#19
Djokovic only strong rivalry is Nadal and no others. It's all depends on Nadal performance on court. Well it could be a couple of months as No 1.
 
#20
He could break Pete's record of consecutive years at #1. I think he finally surrenders the #1 in 2018.

Thing is, he can have dips and still be #1, it won't need a 2011 like season, with rest of the ATP not doing anything much. :)
 
#22
The re-emergence of Del Potro, Rafa to come back fitter and fresher, Federer still weaving magic, Murray the hard court specialist, is Novak's run a streak of form or the announcement of his true self's arrival? How long can he hold on to the ranking and how can it be wrested from him? And by who?[/QUOT

hopefully for a long long time
 
#23
Hard to say. Rafa doesnt look like he yet has the tools to undo Nole.
But that can change if Rafa finds a better way of handling the lopy high balls to his backhand, there he gets into trouble by forfeiting ground.

IMO Nole will be in the top 3 for the next 3-4 years if he is healthy
 
#24
Djokovic only strong rivalry is Nadal and no others. It's all depends on Nadal performance on court. Well it could be a couple of months as No 1.
A couple of months? Unless he tanks the rest of the Tennis season I don't see how you can say that he has a couple of months (2 months) at #1, he'll be #1 for the rest of the year
 
#28
until EOY 2014...

No one to challenge him. Fedal are cooked. Murray hasn't lived up to his potential. Delpo is always injured.

So it has to be one of Dmitrov, Tomic, Dolgopolov, Harrison, Raonic etc. These guys won't become a force (if they ever do) until 2-3 yrs IMO.
 
#31
Djokovic has improved significantly this year, and some people are assuming he'll go on to win 10+ grand slams and spend years as #1. The way I see it he could just as easily drop back down to his previous level. There's just no way to tell if he can continue as he is now.

He should at least finish 2011 as number 1 though.
 
#38
Why not? Who's gonna beat him? He's best on slow hards.
I agree with what you're saying but at the same time, no one is going to go two years straight undefeated until the semifinals at the FO. He's bound to have a few off days. Rafa will probably sneak one out on clay, if someone doesn't get him before then.
 
#39
I agree with what you're saying but at the same time, no one is going to go two years straight undefeated until the semifinals at the FO. He's bound to have a few off days. Rafa will probably sneak one out on clay, if someone doesn't get him before then.
Rafa ain't beating Novak anywhere anymore much less on clay. Novak decidedly won those two clay finals without really breaking a sweat,and Rafa has declined so much that what used to be his best surface has now become his worst. It would take a monumental performance from Rafa to take down Novak right now,and I just can't see him doing it.
 
#40
Not with all the points to defend next year.
I don't really get this argument. Djokovic is the first player since McEnroe in 1984 to have this kind of run. It's very unlikely someone else will come along and repeat this, which is what will have to happen for someone to knock him off the top.

It's far more likely that he'll defend most of them and the rest will be divided amongst multiple players.
 
#41
Rafa ain't beating Novak anywhere anymore much less on clay. Novak decidedly won those two clay finals without really breaking a sweat,and Rafa has declined so much that what used to be his best surface has now become his worst. It would take a monumental performance from Rafa to take down Novak right now,and I just can't see him doing it.
Stop spamming dude, as much as you´re repeating it, you still sound like a fool, and people still wont believe you.
Oldman Fed beat him on Oldman Fed´s worst surface, prime Fed would have breadsticked him then.
As for Ralph, he lacks confidence against Novak and that´s it, that clown has to remember who he is and what he is capable to do, start to hit the pill with more authority and stay focused instead of falling apart.
 
#43
I don't really get this argument. Djokovic is the first player since McEnroe in 1984 to have this kind of run. It's very unlikely someone else will come along and repeat this, which is what will have to happen for someone to knock him off the top.

It's far more likely that he'll defend most of them and the rest will be divided amongst multiple players.
I dont get this argument man, do you seriously think he will paly for this for the rest of his career or what??
Seriously dude, look at Ralph he isn´t playing his 2010 form, that´s quite something normal.
I´m not saying he´ll totally fall apart next year, but he definately wont repeat that.
 
#44
Stop spamming dude, as much as you´re repeating it, you still sound like a fool, and people still wont believe you.
Oldman Fed beat him on Oldman Fed´s worst surface, prime Fed would have breadsticked him then.
As for Ralph, he lacks confidence against Novak and that´s it, that clown has to remember who he is and what he is capable to do, start to hit the pill with more authority and stay focused instead of falling apart.
I'm not spamming and I'm not a dude. Federer has always given Novak trouble because he has an all court game that drives Novak crazy. Nadal does not have that. Topspin forehands to Novak's backhand is all Nadal seems capable of doing and we all see how that has turned out for him.
 
#45
I'm not spamming and I'm not a dude. Federer has always given Novak trouble because he has an all court game that drives Novak crazy. Nadal does not have that. Topspin forehands to Novak's backhand is all Nadal seems capable of doing and we all see how that has turned out for him.
I agree.The thing is grass was the best surface for Nadal to beat Djokovic. Why? Because the low bounce of grass takes away Djokovic's biggest weapon against Nadal a.k.a the cross court backhand. He terrorized Rafa using this in the clay court season as he hit winner after winner from his cc backhand on Nadal's short balls. But it's much harder to take the ball on the rise (on the backhand) on grass since the bounce is much lower.

Right now the matchup issue has also become mental, because Nadal played crap in the Wimb final compared to his level in the rest of the tournament. Djokovic played far better in Rome 2011 even, compared to the Wimb final, where as Nadal played worse. Had Djoko played at his Rome 2011 F level, the match could have been a beatdown.

The fact that Nadal could not even beat Djoko on grass, tells me that Nadal has little chance on hardcourts or clay unless he makes some big tactical changes and/or improvements..
 
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#47
I dont get this argument man, do you seriously think he will paly for this for the rest of his career or what??
I didn't say he would, I said he could be World #1 until the beginning of 2013. That's not a career, that's a year and a half (from now).

Seriously dude, look at Ralph he isn´t playing his 2010 form, that´s quite something normal.
I´m not saying he´ll totally fall apart next year, but he definately wont repeat that.
Unless somebody goes on a similar run to the one he's had this year, he won't have to.
 

Ripster

Hall of Fame
#48
Novak will probably end the year #1 unless he slumps pretty hard which I don't see happening.

He has a decent chance of beating McEnroe's 82-3 record.
 
#50
Is the WTF worth 1000 ATP points ?
It can be worth 1500, but that's only if you win the tournament undefeated. The scoring structure is:

3 x round robin matches = 200 pts for win
semifinals = 400 pts for win
finals = 500 pts for win

Last year Roger won it undefeated, giving him the full 1500 points, but that isn't necessarily how it would usually go. From Wikipedia - Players who won the tournament undefeated (since 1990):
Michael Stich, Germany, 1993
Lleyton Hewitt, Australia, 2001
Roger Federer, Switzerland, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2010

So in other years the winner will have lost at least one of the round robin matches and finished with max 1300 points.

Nadal reached the 2010 final undefeated so is defending 1000 points
Djokovic and Murray each won 2 round robins, then lost in the semis (no points for losing) so they're both defending 400 points.
 
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