NatF
Bionic Poster
I'm the one that first posted that match online lol.
How many GS titles would Djokovic have won in Feds so called 'weak' era if he were born in 81?
- Thread starter Tsongerer
- Start date
I'm the one that first posted that match online lol.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
RS
Bionic Poster
Yes he was not as good before clay. Was talking about compared to clay level from MC to Madrid.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
RS
Bionic Poster
@AnOctorokForDinner
The part outside the wins were a bit rough you can ajust the likelyhood.. I think 2018 Djoko would take 2012 Murray in 5 sets at Wim. I am not editing anymore so no changes.
The part outside the wins were a bit rough you can ajust the likelyhood.. I think 2018 Djoko would take 2012 Murray in 5 sets at Wim. I am not editing anymore so no changes.
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
By the way, it's funny that it took 18 people voting for the 9-12 option to finally get on board. I know that because I was the first who voted for it.
RS
Bionic Poster
I am not sure he does not but people say what they think anyway. He was unlucky to run in Kuerten early he could have bulit form but this is a little different. I feel outside maybe Hamburg before RG maybe Djokovic was having a better clay season than Fed in 04.
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RS
Bionic Poster
I think is assumes you do not change career arcs. If you do then things get harder. Djokovic might not have even had a two hander or had a bigger serve etc etc.
ForehandRF
Legend
People generally don't value Fed's consistency as they should.Just imagine playing for 4 years with the required level and consistency to win everything on grass and hard and reach at the same time finals at RG, being stopped only by the greateast clay court player.An injury, a loss in motivation, simply a short bad period and there you go.This takes a toll mentally and ads tons of pressure because you are expected to win everything.See Fed's press conference after the loss in the SF of 2008 AO, when he said that he created a monster.
I have no doubt that Djokovic would have been able to dominate that period, but not to that extent imo, especially because he found his grass game later in his career and surfaces were different, eg the USO was faster and the AO was played on Rebound Ace.Tough to say how many slams he would have won exactly.
I have no doubt that Djokovic would have been able to dominate that period, but not to that extent imo, especially because he found his grass game later in his career and surfaces were different, eg the USO was faster and the AO was played on Rebound Ace.Tough to say how many slams he would have won exactly.
RS
Bionic Poster
I will change the FO to a question mark and say i am not certain until i see more in the future of older matches but fine with the rest.
RS
Bionic Poster
We which time travel was real Lew has a point it is not yet we love fantasy matchesWell, yes, that's why hypotheticals between even a single generation are so stupid, but if we're going to entertain them... It becomes less fun the further down the rabbit hole of realism you go.
Phoenix1983
G.O.A.T.
He wouldn't get considerably more than Fed in the later stages of his career, if he had to face a young Fed (as Fed has faced a young ND).
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Specifically in 2003-2007? Age 21-26, the equivalent seasons for Djokovic are 2008-2012. If we assume little else changes (Djokovic still becomes as good as he is without Federer), then he would gain probably get 2-3 slams in 2003 (AO + RG/USO), just the US in 2004 and 2005, then would go 3-4 in 2006, and 2 in 2007. That's 9-11.
However, Djokovic probably could have won in 2002 as well. In 2007, Djokovic was beaten by Federer or Nadal in each grand slam. I could see Djokovic winning at any of the slams, particularly the US and AO. RG/WIM are less likely, but possible. I'd put him down for 2 there.
So by the end of 2007, Fed had 12 slams and hypothetical Djokovic would have 11-13. Roughly equal, but Fed would be the late-blooming, more dominating type and Djokovic would be the early-blooming, less consistent champ. Djokovic would pair up worse against some rivals, but notably better against Nadal. Perhaps a couple RGs could go Djokovic's way (07, 08, 11 come to mind as potential wins - and with the competition of 2002, 03, and 06 there might be something there for him, plus if Nadal lost 09 I'm sure Djokovic could snatch that up too.)
It's fairly equal in my estimation.
However, Djokovic probably could have won in 2002 as well. In 2007, Djokovic was beaten by Federer or Nadal in each grand slam. I could see Djokovic winning at any of the slams, particularly the US and AO. RG/WIM are less likely, but possible. I'd put him down for 2 there.
So by the end of 2007, Fed had 12 slams and hypothetical Djokovic would have 11-13. Roughly equal, but Fed would be the late-blooming, more dominating type and Djokovic would be the early-blooming, less consistent champ. Djokovic would pair up worse against some rivals, but notably better against Nadal. Perhaps a couple RGs could go Djokovic's way (07, 08, 11 come to mind as potential wins - and with the competition of 2002, 03, and 06 there might be something there for him, plus if Nadal lost 09 I'm sure Djokovic could snatch that up too.)
It's fairly equal in my estimation.
beard
Legend
But yes, he would... "peak" Federer isn't that good as you think he is...
Phoenix1983
G.O.A.T.
Post-peak Federer has been winning many slams and only been defeated narrowly by peak Novak Djokovic in many others.
Peak Federer would wipe the floor with peak ND.
beard
Legend
Thing is that by me and not only just me (including Fed himself) peak Fed wasn't during same period you are referring... So Novak already beat peak Fed here and there...
daggerman
Hall of Fame
Lol no. Peak Federer wasn't even wiping the floor with Nalbandian. Let's not get carried away.
Peak Federer v. Peak Djokovic is as close to a toss up as you can get. Nobody is "wiping the floor" with either of them (save for Peak Claydal)
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
The fact that this would include Djokovic’s 2009-2010 seasons is why I’m skeptical that he’d win more than Federer.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
AO: W (Either loss to Safin or he wins)
RG: W
WIM: QF-F (Henman, Hewitt, and Nalby. Tough)
USO: W (Reaches QF to take out Agassi. If Agassi beat Hewitt, I can't see Novak losing. And frankly upon rewatch of the final 2 weeks ago, I didn't see anything that could necessarily stop Djokovic - after all Djokovic held his own against a peak Federer.)
RG: W
WIM: QF-F (Henman, Hewitt, and Nalby. Tough)
USO: W (Reaches QF to take out Agassi. If Agassi beat Hewitt, I can't see Novak losing. And frankly upon rewatch of the final 2 weeks ago, I didn't see anything that could necessarily stop Djokovic - after all Djokovic held his own against a peak Federer.)
AO: W (Difficulties are Nalbadian, Schuttler, Agassi. I think Djokovic was good enough to win this, especially at the AO)
RG: W (Either a loss to Ferrero or a win. Not a tough field.)
WIM: R3 or SF. Roddick wouldn't lose to this Djokovic. Not on grass in 2003.
USO: R4/SF/W (Nalbandian and Roddick. Tough opponents. He either wins or loses to one of them.)
RG: W (Either a loss to Ferrero or a win. Not a tough field.)
WIM: R3 or SF. Roddick wouldn't lose to this Djokovic. Not on grass in 2003.
USO: R4/SF/W (Nalbandian and Roddick. Tough opponents. He either wins or loses to one of them.)
AO: QF (Nalbandian)
RG: R3 (Kuerten probably wins here)
WIM: F (Roddick, though Hewitt might be able to win in the QF too)
USO: W (Agassi match could be tough, but I think he'd pull through)
RG: R3 (Kuerten probably wins here)
WIM: F (Roddick, though Hewitt might be able to win in the QF too)
USO: W (Agassi match could be tough, but I think he'd pull through)
AO: SF (Safin > Tsonga)
RG: SF (Nadal wins, probably a bit closer than Fed)
WIM: F (Roddick again.)
USO: W (Some difficult matches, but Djokovic went back to back against Fedal here and put up a good fight. I don't think Djokovic is losing.)
RG: SF (Nadal wins, probably a bit closer than Fed)
WIM: F (Roddick again.)
USO: W (Some difficult matches, but Djokovic went back to back against Fedal here and put up a good fight. I don't think Djokovic is losing.)
AO: W
RG: W (Given that Federer breadsticked Nadal here, Djokovic has a better matchup against Nadal, and Nadal in 2011 didn't win one time against Djokovic)
WIM: W (Nadal would give him some difficulty, just like in 2011. I imagine this would be the Wimbledon 07 of this reality)
USO: W (Another back to back Fedal encounter for Djokovic makes me think he beats Roddick.)
RG: W (Given that Federer breadsticked Nadal here, Djokovic has a better matchup against Nadal, and Nadal in 2011 didn't win one time against Djokovic)
WIM: W (Nadal would give him some difficulty, just like in 2011. I imagine this would be the Wimbledon 07 of this reality)
USO: W (Another back to back Fedal encounter for Djokovic makes me think he beats Roddick.)
AO: W
RG: F (Probably close, but I can't keep giving Djokovic slack here. Nadal wins most of the RG encounters)
WIM: F (The Wimbledon 08 of this reality. Djokovic loses, since Federer is better on grass and Nadal almost beat him. Plus 2012 wasn't great for Djokovic.)
USO: W (Djokovic beats everyone in that draw, even Djokovic.)
RG: F (Probably close, but I can't keep giving Djokovic slack here. Nadal wins most of the RG encounters)
WIM: F (The Wimbledon 08 of this reality. Djokovic loses, since Federer is better on grass and Nadal almost beat him. Plus 2012 wasn't great for Djokovic.)
USO: W (Djokovic beats everyone in that draw, even Djokovic.)
AO: 4
RG: 3
WIM: 1
USO: 5-6
Total: 13-14 by the end of 07, 1-2 more than Federer, but I was being probably a little more lenient than I should have been. We expect Djokovic to have some bad days in there somewhere, so probably 1 or 2 of those would be picked up by someone else. More or less exactly what Federer got.
RG: 3
WIM: 1
USO: 5-6
Total: 13-14 by the end of 07, 1-2 more than Federer, but I was being probably a little more lenient than I should have been. We expect Djokovic to have some bad days in there somewhere, so probably 1 or 2 of those would be picked up by someone else. More or less exactly what Federer got.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
I agree with a lot of this, actually, except I think you’re a bit too lenient on 2007-2008 Djoker in 2002-2003.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
You're probably right. I imagine 2002 AO, USO and 2003 AO, RG, and USO as coin flips. I was just doing it pretty quickly and when in doubt I gave it to Djokovic. If I'm being a bit less biased probably he wins 2 or 3 of those 5, bringing his total down to 11-12. However, I do believe Djokovic could have won a good number of those matches. It really comes down to how the players were feeling on the day. I think it'd be close, but Djokovic would pull it off.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Aren't you mixing up some things? Because by the looks of your post, it seems like Djokovic was born in 1982 instead of 1981.
Phoenix1983
G.O.A.T.
Wiping the floor was an exaggeration, but peak Federer would certainly have beaten Novak Djokovic more than the other way around.
We have seen how ND only narrowly defeats post peak Federer.
ForehandRF
Legend
The question is, would Fed be more clutch ? That's important because there would be no problems with his level of play.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
I already said I agreed with most of NatF's post, but here is my personal list anyway. I'll throw in the Masters Cup.
2007 Djokovic in 2001:
AO: Anywhere from 3R - F, honestly. It's hard to gauge 2007 Djokovic's form considering he lost to a red-hot Federer.
RG: Similar situation to AO, though I suspect he loses at around the SF.
W: 4R, loses to Sampras
USO: 4R, probably loses to Agassi. If not, then for sure Sampras the next round.
TMC: I doubt he qualifies
2008 Djokovic in 2002:
AO: W, but probably struggles against Haas and Safin
RG: 4R, probably loses to Ferrero. If not, then surely Agassi and Safin can take him out.
W: Honestly, losing to Ancic in 1R isn't completely outside the realm of possibility. But let's say he makes it to the QF and loses to Hewitt.
USO: QF or SF, loses to Agassi or Hewitt.
TMC: Qualifies due to AO win, probably wins the whole thing as well.
2009 Djokovic in 2003:
AO: 4R, loses to Nalbandian
RG: F, loses to Ferrero. Remember, we're assuming his titanic struggles against Nadal don't exist in this parallel universe. Regardless, he still wasn't good enough to take out Ferrero yet.
W: Wouldn't be surprised to see him lose to Fish in R3, but it's likely that he makes it to Roddick in the SF and loses.
USO: 4R, probably loses to Nalbandian
TMC: He'll win a few clay Masters and such which will probably qualify him, but he likely loses in the RR like he did in 2009.
2010 Djokovic in 2004
AO: QF, loses to Nalbandian
RG: 3R or QF, loses to either Kuerten or Nalbandian
W: QF or F, loses to either Hewitt or Roddick
USO: QF, loses to Agassi
TMC: Not sure if he qualifies, but he was able to do it in 2010 so I might as well include him here. I have him losing to Safin in the SF.
2011 Djokovic in 2005:
AO: W, barely edges Safin in SF; I suppose the surface isn't conducive to his abilities, but his high level of play in 2011 is what seals the deal for me
RG: SF, loses to Nadal
W: W, no comment here
USO: He has some struggles here, but I'll give him the W
TMC: Surely qualifies, but is in poor form so loses in RR
2012 Djokovic in 2006:
AO: W, no comment
RG: F, loses to Nadal
W: 50/50 W or F. By all accounts, Djokovic wasn't too special at 2012 Wimbledon, but 2006 Nadal was still a bit off from his 2007-2010 self at Wimbledon.
USO: W, but it's a fairly ugly one
TMC: Qualifies and wins
2013 Djokovic in 2007:
AO: W
RG: F, loses to Nadal
W: F, loses to Nadal
USO: QF or F, either loses to Roddick or goes 50/50 with Baby Djokovic
TMC: Qualifies and wins
In total, 7-9 Slams for him + 3 TMC wins. To make this fair since we excluded 2 and a half of his prime years (2014-2016), I'll throw 2008-2010 in here. Copypasted from my other post.
2014 Djokovic in 2008:
AO: SF or W, Stan stopped him from winning it in 2014. His problem would be 2008 Djokovic in the semis, though.
RG: F, loses fairly easily to Nadal
W: F, loses to Nadal (I rate 2008 grassdal higher than 2014 grassovic)
USO: SF, loses to 2008 Djokovic
TMC: Probably wins the whole thing here.
In 2014/2008, I expect we'd be seeing a lot of majoring in minors for Djokovic.
2015 Djokovic in 2009:
AO: F, loses to Nadal. If it were 2008, 2011, 2016, or 2019 Djokovic, this would be a win. 2015 is not at that level imo.
RG: SF or W, Delpo would be his biggest problem since I believe he played almost as well as Stan in 2015. However, Djokovic matches up better against him.
W: W, not much to say here. Final is obviously a toughie, but he can handle it.
USO: W, again no comment
TMC: Probably also wins this. Stacked draw, but it's 2015 Djokovic.
2016/2010:
AO: W, no comment.
RG: QF or F, loses to Soderling or Nadal
W: QF, loses to Berdych
USO: SF, loses to 2010 Djokovic
TMC: I'm not sure. Nadal actually played quite well at the 2010 WTF, but then again it is Nadal indoors. On the other hand, it's 2016 Djokovic. Dunno what to say, but I don't think he wins.
So with all those years in total, I give Djokovic 10-14 Slams and 5 TMC wins. Pretty similar to Federer. Not as dominant in his seasons and has some rough patches in 2003-2004, but does better in 2008-2009 which is a big factor.
AO: Anywhere from 3R - F, honestly. It's hard to gauge 2007 Djokovic's form considering he lost to a red-hot Federer.
RG: Similar situation to AO, though I suspect he loses at around the SF.
W: 4R, loses to Sampras
USO: 4R, probably loses to Agassi. If not, then for sure Sampras the next round.
TMC: I doubt he qualifies
2008 Djokovic in 2002:
AO: W, but probably struggles against Haas and Safin
RG: 4R, probably loses to Ferrero. If not, then surely Agassi and Safin can take him out.
W: Honestly, losing to Ancic in 1R isn't completely outside the realm of possibility. But let's say he makes it to the QF and loses to Hewitt.
USO: QF or SF, loses to Agassi or Hewitt.
TMC: Qualifies due to AO win, probably wins the whole thing as well.
2009 Djokovic in 2003:
AO: 4R, loses to Nalbandian
RG: F, loses to Ferrero. Remember, we're assuming his titanic struggles against Nadal don't exist in this parallel universe. Regardless, he still wasn't good enough to take out Ferrero yet.
W: Wouldn't be surprised to see him lose to Fish in R3, but it's likely that he makes it to Roddick in the SF and loses.
USO: 4R, probably loses to Nalbandian
TMC: He'll win a few clay Masters and such which will probably qualify him, but he likely loses in the RR like he did in 2009.
2010 Djokovic in 2004
AO: QF, loses to Nalbandian
RG: 3R or QF, loses to either Kuerten or Nalbandian
W: QF or F, loses to either Hewitt or Roddick
USO: QF, loses to Agassi
TMC: Not sure if he qualifies, but he was able to do it in 2010 so I might as well include him here. I have him losing to Safin in the SF.
2011 Djokovic in 2005:
AO: W, barely edges Safin in SF; I suppose the surface isn't conducive to his abilities, but his high level of play in 2011 is what seals the deal for me
RG: SF, loses to Nadal
W: W, no comment here
USO: He has some struggles here, but I'll give him the W
TMC: Surely qualifies, but is in poor form so loses in RR
2012 Djokovic in 2006:
AO: W, no comment
RG: F, loses to Nadal
W: 50/50 W or F. By all accounts, Djokovic wasn't too special at 2012 Wimbledon, but 2006 Nadal was still a bit off from his 2007-2010 self at Wimbledon.
USO: W, but it's a fairly ugly one
TMC: Qualifies and wins
2013 Djokovic in 2007:
AO: W
RG: F, loses to Nadal
W: F, loses to Nadal
USO: QF or F, either loses to Roddick or goes 50/50 with Baby Djokovic
TMC: Qualifies and wins
In total, 7-9 Slams for him + 3 TMC wins. To make this fair since we excluded 2 and a half of his prime years (2014-2016), I'll throw 2008-2010 in here. Copypasted from my other post.
2014 Djokovic in 2008:
AO: SF or W, Stan stopped him from winning it in 2014. His problem would be 2008 Djokovic in the semis, though.
RG: F, loses fairly easily to Nadal
W: F, loses to Nadal (I rate 2008 grassdal higher than 2014 grassovic)
USO: SF, loses to 2008 Djokovic
TMC: Probably wins the whole thing here.
In 2014/2008, I expect we'd be seeing a lot of majoring in minors for Djokovic.
2015 Djokovic in 2009:
AO: F, loses to Nadal. If it were 2008, 2011, 2016, or 2019 Djokovic, this would be a win. 2015 is not at that level imo.
RG: SF or W, Delpo would be his biggest problem since I believe he played almost as well as Stan in 2015. However, Djokovic matches up better against him.
W: W, not much to say here. Final is obviously a toughie, but he can handle it.
USO: W, again no comment
TMC: Probably also wins this. Stacked draw, but it's 2015 Djokovic.
2016/2010:
AO: W, no comment.
RG: QF or F, loses to Soderling or Nadal
W: QF, loses to Berdych
USO: SF, loses to 2010 Djokovic
TMC: I'm not sure. Nadal actually played quite well at the 2010 WTF, but then again it is Nadal indoors. On the other hand, it's 2016 Djokovic. Dunno what to say, but I don't think he wins.
So with all those years in total, I give Djokovic 10-14 Slams and 5 TMC wins. Pretty similar to Federer. Not as dominant in his seasons and has some rough patches in 2003-2004, but does better in 2008-2009 which is a big factor.
metsman
Talk Tennis Guru
01/07 - nothing
02/08 - AO/RG
03/09 - Nothing
04/10 - Nothing
05/11 - 3
06/12 - 2
07/13 - 1
08/14 - 0, 1 if no young Djokovic.
09/15 - 2
10/16 - 1
Maybe 1 after that, definitely 0 if younger Noel exists, certainly nowhere near 5.
13 total, max, worst case 10-11. Really not that surprising, Novak had it tougher pre-prime, Fed and Djoel faced similar competition in their primes, but Fed faced significantly tougher post prime. Novak picks up an extra slam in the earlier years, wins 9-10 in his prime vs 11 in actuality, but then loses out on the whole bundle of post-prime slams.
In general, I think that if the next gen was normal (not legendary, not necessarily even any ATG, just normal with some depth, like Fed's gen without Fed or Nadal: Roddick/Hewitt/Safin with some good clay courters like Ferrero or Coria and guys like Davydenko/Nalbandian to round out the field) and not a disgrace Djokovic would have around 13-14 slams (picks up 1-2 after 2016 at AO), Fed would have 17-18 (picks up maybe 1 at Wimby after 16), Nadal would have 15-16 (picks up a couple more RGs but would get beaten there after that by the new clay courters). So this lines up with that.
02/08 - AO/RG
03/09 - Nothing
04/10 - Nothing
05/11 - 3
06/12 - 2
07/13 - 1
08/14 - 0, 1 if no young Djokovic.
09/15 - 2
10/16 - 1
Maybe 1 after that, definitely 0 if younger Noel exists, certainly nowhere near 5.
13 total, max, worst case 10-11. Really not that surprising, Novak had it tougher pre-prime, Fed and Djoel faced similar competition in their primes, but Fed faced significantly tougher post prime. Novak picks up an extra slam in the earlier years, wins 9-10 in his prime vs 11 in actuality, but then loses out on the whole bundle of post-prime slams.
In general, I think that if the next gen was normal (not legendary, not necessarily even any ATG, just normal with some depth, like Fed's gen without Fed or Nadal: Roddick/Hewitt/Safin with some good clay courters like Ferrero or Coria and guys like Davydenko/Nalbandian to round out the field) and not a disgrace Djokovic would have around 13-14 slams (picks up 1-2 after 2016 at AO), Fed would have 17-18 (picks up maybe 1 at Wimby after 16), Nadal would have 15-16 (picks up a couple more RGs but would get beaten there after that by the new clay courters). So this lines up with that.
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DSH
Talk Tennis Guru
It is a common mistake for beginners to include 2003 as one of the seasons where Federer exercised his dominance, when the numbers deny that fact.
Im(moral) Winner
G.O.A.T.
Of course If Roddick wins Wimbledon 04 his career might go differently and get other wins later on 
Im(moral) Winner
G.O.A.T.
DSH
Talk Tennis Guru
Ferrero was DONE after reaching the sf of the AO 2004. He never reached ever again that instance in a Major tournament.
He was just 23.
Nadalgaenger
G.O.A.T.
NatF
Bionic Poster
Ferrero was DONE after reaching the sf of the AO 2004. He never reached ever again that instance in a Major tournament.
He was just 23.
Don't really understand what happened to him tbh. Had chicken pox and hurt his ribs falling down the stairs and was never the same. He had a couple of bright matches here and there but that's it.
Phoenix1983
G.O.A.T.
Good question, but I don't think he would need to be as clutch, because he'd be beating Novak Djokovic relatively comfortably on most surfaces. He wouldn't be in 40-15 type situations often.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
I understood the wording of the original post as 2003 = Djokovic age 21. Djokovic turned 21 in 2008, so I figured that's what it meant. Now I realize that it was probably 2003 = 2009, because then by the end of 2007 Djokovic would be 26. You're completely right, I was confused.
Let's see... that means I had the 2002 season = 2007 when 2002 = 2008. Actually, that bodes better for Novak in my opinion.
So we'll start from 2001 instead then.
AO: W/F (I don't think he'd lose before the final, but I really don't know how well Agassi played here. Coin flip.)
RG: W/F (Kuerten is also a mystery to me. Djokovic lost to Nadal in 07, so it really depends on how good Kuerten was this tournament. Coin flip.)
WIM: R4 (Probably loses to Sampras, though Henman, Ivanisevic, and Rafter would surely take him down in the subsequent rounds)
USO: QF (A loss is probably inevitable here too, with Agassi/Sampras/Safin/Hewitt from R16 to F)
RG: W/F (Kuerten is also a mystery to me. Djokovic lost to Nadal in 07, so it really depends on how good Kuerten was this tournament. Coin flip.)
WIM: R4 (Probably loses to Sampras, though Henman, Ivanisevic, and Rafter would surely take him down in the subsequent rounds)
USO: QF (A loss is probably inevitable here too, with Agassi/Sampras/Safin/Hewitt from R16 to F)
AO: W
RG: W
WIM: QF-F (Henman, Hewitt, and Nalby. Tough)
USO: W (Reaches QF to take out Agassi. If Agassi beat Hewitt, I can't see Novak losing. And frankly upon rewatch of the final 2 weeks ago, I didn't see anything that could necessarily stop Djokovic - after all Djokovic held his own against a peak Federer.)
RG: W
WIM: QF-F (Henman, Hewitt, and Nalby. Tough)
USO: W (Reaches QF to take out Agassi. If Agassi beat Hewitt, I can't see Novak losing. And frankly upon rewatch of the final 2 weeks ago, I didn't see anything that could necessarily stop Djokovic - after all Djokovic held his own against a peak Federer.)
AO: QF (Difficulties are Nalbadian, Schuttler, Agassi)
RG: W (2009 Djokovic was still very good on clay, taking Nadal the distance twice this season. I don't think Ferrero wins, and the rest of the draw is not super tough.)
WIM: R3 or SF. Roddick wouldn't lose to this Djokovic. Not on grass in 2003.
USO: R4/SF/W (Nalbandian and Roddick. Tough opponents. He either wins or loses to one of them. I'll say he loses.)
RG: W (2009 Djokovic was still very good on clay, taking Nadal the distance twice this season. I don't think Ferrero wins, and the rest of the draw is not super tough.)
WIM: R3 or SF. Roddick wouldn't lose to this Djokovic. Not on grass in 2003.
USO: R4/SF/W (Nalbandian and Roddick. Tough opponents. He either wins or loses to one of them. I'll say he loses.)
AO: QF (Nalbandian)
RG: R3 (Kuerten probably wins here, 2010 clayovic not super.)
WIM: F (Roddick, though Hewitt might be able to win in the QF too)
USO: W (Agassi match could be tough, but I think he'd pull through, after his performance against Fedal back-to-back.)
RG: R3 (Kuerten probably wins here, 2010 clayovic not super.)
WIM: F (Roddick, though Hewitt might be able to win in the QF too)
USO: W (Agassi match could be tough, but I think he'd pull through, after his performance against Fedal back-to-back.)
AO: W (2011 Djokovic, need I say more?)
RG: W (Unfortunately, this would be baby Nadal vs. 2011 Djokovic. Djokovic has a better matchup against Nadal, and Nadal in 2011 didn't win one time against Djokovic. Federer took a set, but Djokovic would take the match. )
WIM: W (Roddick would give Djokovic more trouble than he gave Fed, but I don't think he wins it.)
USO: W (Some difficult matches, but this Djokovic went back to back against Fedal here and won.)
RG: W (Unfortunately, this would be baby Nadal vs. 2011 Djokovic. Djokovic has a better matchup against Nadal, and Nadal in 2011 didn't win one time against Djokovic. Federer took a set, but Djokovic would take the match. )
WIM: W (Roddick would give Djokovic more trouble than he gave Fed, but I don't think he wins it.)
USO: W (Some difficult matches, but this Djokovic went back to back against Fedal here and won.)
AO: W (2012 Djokovic, easy draw.)
RG: F (Probably Nadal wins, but I don't think it'd be an easy fight. I think a tight 4 or 5-setter, but Nadal ultimately wins.)
WIM: F (Nadal lost a tighter match against a stronger Fed in their respective years, 06 vs 12. Nadal wins.)
USO: F/W (Coin flip. In the interest of being fair, I'll say Djokovic loses the final to Roddick.)
RG: F (Probably Nadal wins, but I don't think it'd be an easy fight. I think a tight 4 or 5-setter, but Nadal ultimately wins.)
WIM: F (Nadal lost a tighter match against a stronger Fed in their respective years, 06 vs 12. Nadal wins.)
USO: F/W (Coin flip. In the interest of being fair, I'll say Djokovic loses the final to Roddick.)
AO: W (2013 Djokovic, easy draw.)
RG: F (I think we see a rehash of 2013, ultimately. However, if Nadal blinks he loses. Definitely 5 sets, but because Djokovic couldn't take him down in 2013, I see no reason the 2007 Nadal would be weaker.)
WIM: F (Nadal's a better grass player than Delpo is. He beats Djokovic.)
USO: W (Djokovic beats everyone in that draw, even Djokovic.)
RG: F (I think we see a rehash of 2013, ultimately. However, if Nadal blinks he loses. Definitely 5 sets, but because Djokovic couldn't take him down in 2013, I see no reason the 2007 Nadal would be weaker.)
WIM: F (Nadal's a better grass player than Delpo is. He beats Djokovic.)
USO: W (Djokovic beats everyone in that draw, even Djokovic.)
AO: 4.5
RG: 3.5
WIM: 1
USO: 4.5
Total: 12-15 slams between 2001 and 2007, but again I remind people that I'm likely rating Djokovic a tad higher than I should because I can't account for bad days. This mostly assumes he remains in good form throughout tournaments, but it's possible that the true slam count could be markedly lower just due to bad luck (remember his USO record, no one would have predicted that).
RG: 3.5
WIM: 1
USO: 4.5
Total: 12-15 slams between 2001 and 2007, but again I remind people that I'm likely rating Djokovic a tad higher than I should because I can't account for bad days. This mostly assumes he remains in good form throughout tournaments, but it's possible that the true slam count could be markedly lower just due to bad luck (remember his USO record, no one would have predicted that).
Honestly, this is pretty fun, so I'll move forward with this too.
AO: SF/W (The only issue would be 2008 Djokovic. It's tough not to give the win to 08 Djokovic.)
RG: F (No chance Djokovic beats 08 Nadal.)
WIM: F (Nadal's 08 beat 08 Fed. Djokovic's 14 barely beat 14 Fed. No contest.)
USO: SF (08ovic beats 14ovic.)
RG: F (No chance Djokovic beats 08 Nadal.)
WIM: F (Nadal's 08 beat 08 Fed. Djokovic's 14 barely beat 14 Fed. No contest.)
USO: SF (08ovic beats 14ovic.)
AO: F (Honestly, Nadal probably wins here. I would like to think Djokovic can take advantage of the SF he just played, but even Federer couldn't. It's possible, but probably not.)
RG: W (Djokovic can take it without Nadal or Stan in the draw. Delpo would be dangerous, but he'd pull through.)
WIM: F (Heart says Roddick wins it.)
USO: W (I don't think Delpo pulls it off against Djokovic.)
RG: W (Djokovic can take it without Nadal or Stan in the draw. Delpo would be dangerous, but he'd pull through.)
WIM: F (Heart says Roddick wins it.)
USO: W (I don't think Delpo pulls it off against Djokovic.)
I'm not counting the rut he fell into - this will be an overestimate. The rut likely would've happened after he won the career slam if then, but it would've been a less trying journey for him.
AO: W (Problems are Tsonga and Murray, and it doesn't seem like that would be too difficult.)
RG: F (Nadal's back. Not 2016 Nadal, real Nadal.)
Speculation time:
WIM: F (Taking 2014 Djokovic form, I would pick Nadal. With 2015 Djokovic form, Djokovic. Let's give Nadal the benefit of the doubt.)
USO: SF (2010 Djokovic beats this later Djokovic.)
AO: W (Problems are Tsonga and Murray, and it doesn't seem like that would be too difficult.)
RG: F (Nadal's back. Not 2016 Nadal, real Nadal.)
Speculation time:
WIM: F (Taking 2014 Djokovic form, I would pick Nadal. With 2015 Djokovic form, Djokovic. Let's give Nadal the benefit of the doubt.)
USO: SF (2010 Djokovic beats this later Djokovic.)
AO: SF (Loses to himself.)
RG: SF (Loses to himself.)
WIM: SF (Probably beats Tsonga, but... loses to himself.)
USO: SF (And naturally, loses to himself.)
RG: SF (Loses to himself.)
WIM: SF (Probably beats Tsonga, but... loses to himself.)
USO: SF (And naturally, loses to himself.)
AO: SF (Loses to Nadal.)
RG: SF (Loses to himself.)
WIM: W (Pulls off a Federer. How about that.)
USO: SF (Loses to Murray, probably. Difficult to gauge, Djokovic had a pretty easy time in USO 18.)
RG: SF (Loses to himself.)
WIM: W (Pulls off a Federer. How about that.)
USO: SF (Loses to Murray, probably. Difficult to gauge, Djokovic had a pretty easy time in USO 18.)
AO: F/W (If he pulled out the same stuff he did in the AO19 final, he wins. Otherwise, Murray or Djokovic win.)
RG: F (Loses to Nadal.)
WIM: SF (2019 Djokovic was not even the best player in the tournament, let alone better than 13 Murray and Djokovic. Couldn't do them back to back.)
USO: QF (Loses to Nadal)
RG: F (Loses to Nadal.)
WIM: SF (2019 Djokovic was not even the best player in the tournament, let alone better than 13 Murray and Djokovic. Couldn't do them back to back.)
USO: QF (Loses to Nadal)
AO: SF (Loss to Nadal).
Federer: 17
Djokovic (hypothetical): 16-20. If I had to guess, it'd be on the low side of that range. 16 or 17, same as Federer. I like that they turn out about equal in this period. Makes me feel happy that they'd perform about as well as one another in each other's era.
Djokovic (hypothetical): 16-20. If I had to guess, it'd be on the low side of that range. 16 or 17, same as Federer. I like that they turn out about equal in this period. Makes me feel happy that they'd perform about as well as one another in each other's era.
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TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
I've been robbed
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Personal opinion: I think 2004 Agassi beats 2010 Djokovic at the USO. Agassi wouldn't donate Djokovic 2 easy sets like Federer did.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
Your lists are solid too.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Very possible, I probably made a lot of questionable calls. There's probably a lot of matches that would be closer or even look completely different than what I predicted.
I would argue, though. Djokovic is more clutch than Federer, generally. The big question is how the play styles would affect things. Agassi struggled with Sampras and Federer, who have similar styles of play. I don't know if he ever faced a returner as good as he was - it'd be interesting to see. Djokovic would be running around to compensate for Agassi's ballstriking ability, and we'd have to see if Djokovic's athleticism or Agassi's shotmaking would win out.
2001/2007:
AO: Agassi is the favorite
FO: Kuerten is the favorite
W: Ivanisevic is the favorite (several others could beat Djokovic)
UO: Hewitt is the favorite (Sampras also likely beats Djokovic if it's not the final; Agassi would also be favored over Djokovic)
2002/2008:
AO: Djokovic is the favorite (Safin could be tough if they meet before the final)
FO: Djokovic is the favorite
WI: Hewitt is the favorite (Djokovic lost to Safin in the 2R)
UO: Sampras is the favorite (Djokovic is losing to either Sampras or Agassi)
2003/2009:
AO: Agassi is the favorite (Roddick/heat beat Djokovic in the QF)
FO: Ferrero is the favorite (Djokovic was straight setted by Kohlschreiber in the 3R)
WI: Roddick/Philippoussis is the favorite (Djokovic lost to Haas in 4 in the QF)
UO: Roddick is the favorite, winning Canada, Cincinnati, and the U.S. Open in 2003
2004/2010:
AO: ???? So much depends on the draw. Does Djokovic face Safin before the SF or possibly Roddick/Agassi? Would he beat Nalbandian? 2010 Djokovic lost to Tsonga in 5 in the QF
FO: Gaudio is the favorite (Djokovic lost to Melzer in 5 in the QF)
WI: Roddick is the favorite (Djokovic got straight setted by Berdych in the SF)
UO: Agassi/Djokovic are co-favorites
2005/2011:
AO: Djokovic is the favorite, but Safin has a really good shot
FO: Djokovic is the favorite, but Nadal has a good shot
WI: Djokovic is the favorite
UO: Djokovic is the favorite
2006/2012:
AO: Djokovic is the favorite
FO: Nadal is the favorite
WI: Djokovic and Nadal are co-favorites
UO: Roddick is the favorite, but Djokovic (5 set loss to Murray in the F) has a good shot
2007/2013:
AO: Djokovic is the favorite
FO: Nadal is the favorite
WI: Nadal is the favorite
UO: Djokovic is the favorite
That likely leaves Djokovic with 9-12 Majors, although I could see him picking up some more, like the 2003 & 2006 U.S. Opens. Meeting somewhere in the middle, I give him 10-11.
AO: Agassi is the favorite
FO: Kuerten is the favorite
W: Ivanisevic is the favorite (several others could beat Djokovic)
UO: Hewitt is the favorite (Sampras also likely beats Djokovic if it's not the final; Agassi would also be favored over Djokovic)
2002/2008:
AO: Djokovic is the favorite (Safin could be tough if they meet before the final)
FO: Djokovic is the favorite
WI: Hewitt is the favorite (Djokovic lost to Safin in the 2R)
UO: Sampras is the favorite (Djokovic is losing to either Sampras or Agassi)
2003/2009:
AO: Agassi is the favorite (Roddick/heat beat Djokovic in the QF)
FO: Ferrero is the favorite (Djokovic was straight setted by Kohlschreiber in the 3R)
WI: Roddick/Philippoussis is the favorite (Djokovic lost to Haas in 4 in the QF)
UO: Roddick is the favorite, winning Canada, Cincinnati, and the U.S. Open in 2003
2004/2010:
AO: ???? So much depends on the draw. Does Djokovic face Safin before the SF or possibly Roddick/Agassi? Would he beat Nalbandian? 2010 Djokovic lost to Tsonga in 5 in the QF
FO: Gaudio is the favorite (Djokovic lost to Melzer in 5 in the QF)
WI: Roddick is the favorite (Djokovic got straight setted by Berdych in the SF)
UO: Agassi/Djokovic are co-favorites
2005/2011:
AO: Djokovic is the favorite, but Safin has a really good shot
FO: Djokovic is the favorite, but Nadal has a good shot
WI: Djokovic is the favorite
UO: Djokovic is the favorite
2006/2012:
AO: Djokovic is the favorite
FO: Nadal is the favorite
WI: Djokovic and Nadal are co-favorites
UO: Roddick is the favorite, but Djokovic (5 set loss to Murray in the F) has a good shot
2007/2013:
AO: Djokovic is the favorite
FO: Nadal is the favorite
WI: Nadal is the favorite
UO: Djokovic is the favorite
That likely leaves Djokovic with 9-12 Majors, although I could see him picking up some more, like the 2003 & 2006 U.S. Opens. Meeting somewhere in the middle, I give him 10-11.
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Really good, I try to do something that take accounts for bad days. Try to make a comparison match by match(Ex. 2010 Nole had a bad day in RG QF, losing to Melzer, Fed would had played Nalbandian here, no way Nole could win). I'm a bit more bullish than you against Baby Rafa, and less earlier in his career, probably because it happens he had bad days. From 2011-2013 he, basically, hadn't. Only great opposition. Excluding maybe 2013 WIM Final, against great opposition too, but he could had, at leat, play a 5 setter. Overall, we had similar results.
The main problem, with this analysis, is when you don't know Nole's level in final rounds, because he lost in earlier rounds, but you think he would had won against Fed's opponents. I tried to extrapolate from the level of the rest of the tournament.
I asterisked tournaments I think he could win, and i picked he lose, and viceversa.
2001:
AO - 3R Clément
RG - F Kuerten*
WIM - 4R Sampras
USO - 4R Agassi
2002:
AO - WIN
RG - WIN
WIM - 1R Ancic
USO - F Sampras*
2003:
AO - 4R Nalbandian
RG - QF Moya
WIM - QF Schalken*
USO - WIN
2004:
AO - QF Nalbandian*
QF - Nalbandian
F - Roddick*
USO - WIN
2005:
AO - WIN
RG - WIN
WIM - WIN
USO - WIN
2006:
AO - WIN
RG - WIN*
WIM - WIN
USO - WIN
2007:
AO - WIN
RG - F Nadal*
WIM - F Nadal
USO - WIN
TOTAL: 4 AO, 3 RG, 2 WIM, 5 USO. 14 GS.
I had a lot of asterisks when he lose, and only on one of his victories, but this i think it's normal. 13-16 it's a good confidence interval IMO. Definetely more than Fed thanks to 2002 and RG.
Some comments on most difficult ones IMO:
Australian Open:
2001: If he beat Clément, and this is close, he would go to the final, but I don’t think he can beat Agassi there.
2003: Could beat Nalbandian, but he had a bad day vs Roddick at QF, probably he would lose against Schuttler.
2004: In QF he has a quite bad day vs Tsonga, and Nalbandian played well vs Federer. If he beat him, he would go to the win.
Roland Garros:
2001: Could have some problems in earlier rounds(Like 3R) like in 2007, but Federer hadn’t opponents that I can pick against him. He could beat Corretja and Grosjean with his QF/SF level. No idea what his level could be in the final, Kuerten wasn’t great that tournament. It’s a close one.
2002: Maybe some trouble against Ferrero/Agassi, but highly unlikely. Costa won that tournament.
2003: Probably he wouldn’t lost in the third round vs Spadea. And then his opponents would be pretty bad. But he lost in the 3R in 2009, maybe it was only a bad day, but I can’t give this to him.
2006: Final for sure. Then Baby Rafa was good on clay in 2006, less than 2012 and in 2012 there was a not lopsided match against Nole. So I give this to Nole(No question 2011 Nole vs 2005 Rafa). But it’s close.
2007: Like 2006. Rafa 2007 > 2006, but Nole 2013 > 2012. I had 2006 to Nole, I’ll give this to Rafa. 1-1 in those finals it’s the most likely outcome.
Wimbledon:
2003: He lost to Haas in QF in 2009, but idk if he would had lost vs Schalken too. And his play level was good until that match, so a bad Roddick and Philippousis unlikely would had been a problem. I’ll say QF, but he has a shot to win.
2004: Lost against Berdych in SF, who beat Fed there, and was very good before. He would had reached the final without much problems. We can’t say anything about Nole level in the Final. Roddick played well vs Fed, but a good Nole would had beat Roddick, a SF level Nole would had lost to him.
2007: Baby Nadal, unlike 2006, was good in 2007. Nole would be favored against him in an hypothetical, but he had a bad day in 2013 F vs Murray. So I’ll give this to Rafa without asterisks, even if he wouldn’t had to play a 5 setter like in 2013 SF against Delpo.
US Open:
2001: Nole hadn’t a dominant match vs Monaco in 4R, so a good Agassi likely beat him there. He could even win if he pass against Andre(Nole played a lot better from QF to F), but I’m pretty confident he would lost, so no asterisk.
2002: He wouldn’t lost to Mirny, maybe Agassi in QF, but he beat Roddick easily there, so I don’t think so. He lost in SF but against prime Federer winning a set, he could win against Hewitt. Again, all depends by what would be his level in the final. He could beat post-prime Sampras, let’s say he wouldn’t, but definitely an asterisk here.
2006: He lost in a 5 setter against prime Murray, he would had beat Roddick without much problems.
2001: If he beat Clément, and this is close, he would go to the final, but I don’t think he can beat Agassi there.
2003: Could beat Nalbandian, but he had a bad day vs Roddick at QF, probably he would lose against Schuttler.
2004: In QF he has a quite bad day vs Tsonga, and Nalbandian played well vs Federer. If he beat him, he would go to the win.
Roland Garros:
2001: Could have some problems in earlier rounds(Like 3R) like in 2007, but Federer hadn’t opponents that I can pick against him. He could beat Corretja and Grosjean with his QF/SF level. No idea what his level could be in the final, Kuerten wasn’t great that tournament. It’s a close one.
2002: Maybe some trouble against Ferrero/Agassi, but highly unlikely. Costa won that tournament.
2003: Probably he wouldn’t lost in the third round vs Spadea. And then his opponents would be pretty bad. But he lost in the 3R in 2009, maybe it was only a bad day, but I can’t give this to him.
2006: Final for sure. Then Baby Rafa was good on clay in 2006, less than 2012 and in 2012 there was a not lopsided match against Nole. So I give this to Nole(No question 2011 Nole vs 2005 Rafa). But it’s close.
2007: Like 2006. Rafa 2007 > 2006, but Nole 2013 > 2012. I had 2006 to Nole, I’ll give this to Rafa. 1-1 in those finals it’s the most likely outcome.
Wimbledon:
2003: He lost to Haas in QF in 2009, but idk if he would had lost vs Schalken too. And his play level was good until that match, so a bad Roddick and Philippousis unlikely would had been a problem. I’ll say QF, but he has a shot to win.
2004: Lost against Berdych in SF, who beat Fed there, and was very good before. He would had reached the final without much problems. We can’t say anything about Nole level in the Final. Roddick played well vs Fed, but a good Nole would had beat Roddick, a SF level Nole would had lost to him.
2007: Baby Nadal, unlike 2006, was good in 2007. Nole would be favored against him in an hypothetical, but he had a bad day in 2013 F vs Murray. So I’ll give this to Rafa without asterisks, even if he wouldn’t had to play a 5 setter like in 2013 SF against Delpo.
US Open:
2001: Nole hadn’t a dominant match vs Monaco in 4R, so a good Agassi likely beat him there. He could even win if he pass against Andre(Nole played a lot better from QF to F), but I’m pretty confident he would lost, so no asterisk.
2002: He wouldn’t lost to Mirny, maybe Agassi in QF, but he beat Roddick easily there, so I don’t think so. He lost in SF but against prime Federer winning a set, he could win against Hewitt. Again, all depends by what would be his level in the final. He could beat post-prime Sampras, let’s say he wouldn’t, but definitely an asterisk here.
2006: He lost in a 5 setter against prime Murray, he would had beat Roddick without much problems.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
I think you might be underselling 2005-2006 Nadal at RG lol
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
As always, there are matters of opinion that are very subjective (form, level, competition, hot/cold opponents) but I think your predictions are as valid as any I could make. Pretty good analysis, and I appreciate the reasoning. Good work
I agree with most of your post, and I agree with a good bad day analysis to be just pulling a bad day out from real life, but then we have cases like 2009 RG. Djokovic lost only to Nadal the entire clay season (2 F and 1 SF), then lost to Kohlschreiber at RG. Against almost any other opponent, this wouldn't have occurred, or at least not against Spadea at RG 2003. I don't know how to fix this, it's tricky, but I don't discount your method.
Possible. We will never had a proof of which is true, but it's one of them:
1) Peak Nole clearly > Peak Federer on clay, so Nadal was as dominant in 2005-07 as in 2012-14 is caused by the opponent, but he was better in 2012-14. So the opponent not clearly dominated in 2012-14 could beat 2005-07 Rafa.
2) Nadal was on a steady level, and Peak Nole almost = Peak Federer on clay. In this case Nole had probably lost to 2005-07 Rafa.
I'm for the first one. Because I think it's reasonable a player improve from 19-21 to 26-28 and Nadal improved on non-clay surfaces too in these years.
IMO he hadn't an early peak only on clay. He is only so good on clay that he can win earlier when he was not yet peak, but his trajectory was linear among surfaces(Maybe grass before HC).
Debatable, obviously.
An example is that, on the other hand, Federer-Djokovic 2011 is a clue for option 2. But a match is not a great sample, and I feel more reasonable to assume a "standard" career trajectory(26-28 > 19-21) for a player and consider that an outlier.
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