How many points does Federer have to defend for clay?

#5
His best mounted chances were 2012 and 2017, blew off both by horrible choking losses or idiotic decisions (Montreal 2017)...
Definitely he's not ending ye#1 unless rafa djok and sascha all 3 are half drunk throughout the year
I wouldn't say he choked anything in 2012, he just ran out of steam after a ridiculous run for a year post USO 2011 (Wins: Basel, Bercy, WTF, Rotterdam, Dubai, IW, Madrid, Wimbledon, Cinci; F: Halle, Olympics; SF: Doha, AO, Rome, RG).
 

Qubax

Professional
#6
I don't think his chances are zero.

How close would this get him?

4th round and QF on the two Clay tournaments. QF being the French.

Win Stuttgart, Wimbledon, Cincy, US Open SF, Win Basel, Finals of Shanghai and WTF.

I mean he's ahead as of today. If Nadal wins the French and Novak doesn't win the USOpen Fed probably would be #1 in the above scenario
 
#7
I don't think his chances are zero.

How close would this get him?

4th round and QF on the two Clay tournaments. QF being the French.

Win Stuttgart, Wimbledon, Cincy, US Open SF, Win Basel, Finals of Shanghai and WTF.

I mean he's ahead as of today. If Nadal wins the French and Novak doesn't win the USOpen Fed probably would be #1 in the above scenario
How likely is it though Fed Himself wins all of Wimbledon and YEC? Sure IF that happens he could probably be #1 but realistically does that seem like it could happen? I really don't think he can at this point....

Its certainly POSSIBLE...but that doesn't mean its likely.
 
#9
He has about 0% chances of becoming #1 again. Of course, if he wins Wimbledon and Djokovic and Nadal get injured during MC 1st round, his chances will go up. But that would imply a good USO and he's been unable to play well there since 15, so very very long odds.
Not sure how you can say zero..he is currently No. 1 in the race (barely) and neither Nadal nor Djokovic have shown much consistency yet this year.

Of course, clay season is where he is likely to lose ground in the race, so we'll see soon enough.
 
#10
I'm a bit more optimistic. I think only two players have a better chance than Fedr, Djokovic and Nadal. Nadal needs RG19 to have a better chance, and Djokovic needs 2 masters or one more slam. Z is playing catch-up from way behind atm (555pts vs. Fedr's 2280pts).

Some seem to forget that Fedr has been very consistent in masters played (only one loss before SFs since AO17, even when he sucked most of 2018 bc of hand ailment). He also is the current most consistent overall: best W/L record, and the only one with 2 titles atm with one being a masters, and a finals of the other, almost winning both.

Of course, we'll know better by the end of WB19.
 
#11
Djokovic will do it most likely. 6th ye#1
He has a boatload of points to defend this summer, but can gain on clay. It's way too early to know who will end #1. Djoker's lead over Nadal is 2300 points, hardly insurmountable. Remember in April, 2016 Nole was ahead by something like 8,000 points in the rankings and Muzz came roaring back to snatch YE #1.

Take even a crazy scenario like Zverev winning Madrid, Wimbledon, Toronto and getting to the finals of the USO. Theoretically he could end up YE #1. :sick:
 
#12
He has a boatload of points to defend this summer, but can gain on clay. It's way too early to know who will end #1. Djoker's lead over Nadal is 2300 points, hardly insurmountable. Remember in April, 2016 Nole was ahead by something like 8,000 points in the rankings and Muzz came roaring back to snatch YE #1.

Take even a crazy scenario like Zverev winning Madrid, Wimbledon, Toronto and getting to the finals of the USO. Theoretically he could end up YE #1. :sick:
Defending points doesn't matter for the YE #1 ranking :rolleyes:
 
#13
Not sure how you can say zero..he is currently No. 1 in the race (barely) and neither Nadal nor Djokovic have shown much consistency yet this year.

Of course, clay season is where he is likely to lose ground in the race, so we'll see soon enough.
So was he in 17 and 18 and by a much bigger margin

His opponents are older and less consistent but so is he. And the young generation is finally looking like it will matter

He had many chances for another ye1 2003, 2012 2014 and 2017 Even maybe 2008 as a long shot. But it's not reasonnable to expect that kind of consistency from a player that old
 

Towny

Professional
#15
It's not about defending points. It's about the race. He's likely to gain far fewer points than Nadal on the clay season and likely substantially less than Djokovic too. Not only is he unlikely to win anything, but he's only entering a couple of tournaments.

The only real chance of him getting YE#1 is by winning Wimbldeon and going deep at the USO, as well as winning a couple of masters and the WTF. If he manages that (highly unlikely) and Novak and Rafa don't have great years, then he might get it. I.E. it's not happening
 
#16
Defending points doesn't matter for the YE #1 ranking :rolleyes:
What you said is correct, but I think @BeatlesFan just combined the two. They are separate, but the 'pressure' of defending pts 'can' have a huge impact on their performances. Just look at Fedr at AO17 (no pressure bc coming back from injury, even though defending SF pts from AO16) vs. AO19 bc of AO18 champ pressure. And Fedr goes into clay with 'house money'. He's also mostly pressure-free for the rest of the year.
 
#17
I wouldn't say he choked anything in 2012, he just ran out of steam after a ridiculous run for a year post USO 2011 (Wins: Basel, Bercy, WTF, Rotterdam, Dubai, IW, Madrid, Wimbledon, Cinci; F: Halle, Olympics; SF: Doha, AO, Rome, RG).
The USO loss was still disappointing though, considering Novak and Andy looked beatable in that tournament. Fed was also cruising and had a walkover before that loss to Berdych too. It was all lining up and would've been the perfect cap to that year long run and the ultimate redemption after 10 & 11.
 
#18
The USO loss was still disappointing though, considering Novak and Andy looked beatable in that tournament. Fed was also cruising and had a walkover before that loss to Berdych too. It was all lining up and would've been the perfect cap to that year long run and the ultimate redemption after 10 & 11.
That walkover messed up his rhythm big time. I was worried it would.
 
#22
It would be a crazy achievement. Absolutely frikkin mad.
And that is precisely why it won't happen.

I just hope he is 4th(3rd is too much to ask) in the race once clay ends. Thiem will most probably surpass him by the end of FO as he should. Hoap Fed stays ahead of Tsits. This way he can be 3rd once grass ends.
And then he will have a chance to be 2nd going ahead of Nadal probably but YE#1 seems extremely unlikely.

Let's devise a hypothetical scenario where Fed can become YE#1.
I am assuming that his(or anyone's) fight for YE#1 will be against Djoker instead of Nadal.
I will make a scenario and you decide how probable it is. I already think it is extremely unlikely.

Fed(current points- 2280):
Madrid: QF 180
RG: R16 180
Halle: 500
Wimbley: W 2000
Cincy & Shanghai: W & F 1000+600
USO: 360
Basel: 500
WTF: 1300
-----
Total: 8900


Djoker(current:- 2225):
Assuming he won't play Barcelona & Eastbourne & Queens & Basel/Vienna & Beijing. Will consider them later.
MC: SF 360
Madrid: F 600
Rome: SF 360
RG: F 1200
Wimbley: SF 720
Canada, Cincy, Shanghai, Paris: SF, SF, W, QF 360+360+1000+180
USO:720
WTF: 800
-------
Total: 8885

So even when I have Djoker playing like **** by his standards pretty much the whole year and Federer playing awesome pretty much everywhere (except clay and USO)-- which is the best scenario for Rog-- Rog only edges Djoker by 15 points.
If Fed loses one match outside of this best case scenario he won't have that YE#1.
Also if Djoker feels like Fed is going after the YE#1 he will certainly play Beijing or Vienna/Basel which pretty much closes the doors for a Fed YE#1.
Also as you see I have Djokovic losing in the SF of USO in this scenario and Fed losing in the QFs.
If neither of them wins it, who will?
Most probably Nadal.
And if he does he will jump right into contention for the YE#1.
Let's see.
He has 1600 till now.
1000+500+1000+180+2000 from dirt.
360 from Wimbley.
2000 from USO.
That takes him to 7640.
And then he needs about 1300(to surpass Fedovic) from Canada, Cincy, Beijing, Shanghai, Paris & WTF.
Even an injured bull can manage that.

So yeah I don't really see a scenario where Federer gets that YE#1 in the presence of healthy Djokodal.
 
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Qubax

Professional
#23
How likely is it though Fed Himself wins all of Wimbledon and YEC? Sure IF that happens he could probably be #1 but realistically does that seem like it could happen? I really don't think he can at this point....

Its certainly POSSIBLE...but that doesn't mean its likely.
I had him finals of YEC sorry if it wasn't clear.

And yah not likely. But I think the above is plausible. The most difficult ask is SW19. He has won it 8 times and would have beaten KA if he didn't have a janky wrist and if he wasn't punted from center court
 

tudwell

Hall of Fame
#24
His best mounted chances were 2012 and 2017, blew off both by horrible choking losses or idiotic decisions (Montreal 2017)...
Definitely he's not ending ye#1 unless rafa djok and sascha all 3 are half drunk throughout the year
He wasn't far off in 2014 either, if I remember right. Djokovic slammed the door shut decisively in the end, but in the early fall it was mathematically possible for Fed to end the year number one. If he had converted the US Open after Djokovic lost or had won the the fifth set of their Wimbledon final, he might have been able to just nose ahead. Crazy how close to the top he's managed to stay even deep into his 30s.
 
#25
It would be a crazy achievement. Absolutely frikkin mad.
And that is precisely why it won't happen.

I just hope he is 4th(3rd is too much to ask) in the race once clay ends. Thiem will most probably surpass him by the end of FO as he should. Hoap Fed stays ahead of Tsits. This way he can be 3rd once grass ends.
And then he will have a chance to be 2nd going ahead of Nadal probably but YE#1 seems extremely unlikely.

Let's devise a hypothetical scenario where Fed can become YE#1.
I am assuming that his(or anyone's) fight for YE#1 will be against Djoker instead of Nadal.
I will make a scenario and you decide how probable it is. I already think it is extremely unlikely.

Fed(current points- 2280):
Madrid: QF 180
RG: R16 180
Halle: 500
Wimbley: W 2000
Cincy & Shanghai: W & F 1000+600
USO: 360
Basel: 500
WTF: 1300
-----
Total: 8900


Djoker(current:- 2225):
Assuming he won't play Barcelona & Eastbourne & Basel/Vienna & Beijing. Will consider them later.
MC: SF 360
Madrid: F 600
Rome: SF 360
RG: F 1200
Wimbley: SF 720
Canada, Cincy, Shanghai, Paris: SF, SF, W, QF 360+360+1000+180
USO:720
WTF: 800
-------
Total: 8885

So even when I have Djoker playing like **** by his standards pretty much the whole year and Federer playing awesome pretty much everywhere (except clay and USO)-- which is the best scenario for Rog-- Rog only edges Djoker by 15 points.
If Fed loses one match outside of this best case scenario he won't have that YE#1.
Also if Djoker feels like Fed is going after the YE#1 he will certainly play Beijing or Vienna/Basel which pretty much closes the doors for a Fed YE#1.
Also as you see I have Djokovic losing in the SF of USO in this scenario and Fed losing in the QFs.
If neither of them wins it, who will?
Most probably Nadal.
And if he does he will jump right into contention for the YE#1.
Let's see.
He has 1600 till now.
1000+500+1000+180+2000 from dirt.
360 from Wimbley.
2000 from USO.
That takes him to 7640.
And then he needs about 1300(to surpass Fedovic) from Canada, Cincy, Beijing, Shanghai, Paris & WTF.
Even an injured bull can manage that.

So yeah I don't really see a scenario where Federer gets that YE#1 in the presence of healthy Djokodal.
If he can rack up enough clay points and defend most of the HC he should be able to get #2 in USO draw which would keep him opposite Nole on the other half. He seems to be able to handle Sasha and Rafa
 
#27
If he can rack up enough clay points and defend most of the HC he should be able to get #2 in USO draw which would keep him opposite Nole on the other half. He seems to be able to handle Sasha and Rafa
He may be able to handle Sasha and Rafa everywhere else but at USGarros seems too much for Roger at his age.
The conditions are very much against him.
What do you mean by enough clay points?
 

Qubax

Professional
#29
I'll list more clearly what I was thinking:

Madrid - 4th
French - QF
Stuttgart - W
Wimbly - W
Cincy - W
US Open - SF
Basel - W
Shanghai - F
YEC - F

--
So it is a lot of wins, but Wimbeldon is the only really substantial needle moving win. (Cincy has always been kind to him)

Also, it's only 9 more tournaments over the next 5-6 months.

It's probably not enough quantity, but realistic enough quality that I think it's plausible
 
#31
I'll list more clearly what I was thinking:

Madrid - 4th
French - QF
Stuttgart - W
Wimbly - W
Cincy - W
US Open - SF
Basel - W
Shanghai - F
YEC - F

--
So it is a lot of wins, but Wimbeldon is the only really substantial needle moving win. (Cincy has always been kind to him)

Also, it's only 9 more tournaments over the next 5-6 months.

It's probably not enough quantity, but realistic enough quality that I think it's plausible
Halle not Stuttgart
 
#33
The amount of points fed has to defend has no correlation with where he will finish at the end of the year
True but there is correlation in terms of seeding. If he is #2 at some point he will be guaranteed to be opposite Nole(assume #1) at USO and other M1000s. Which should help. But a very low correlation at best
 
#34
The USO loss was still disappointing though, considering Novak and Andy looked beatable in that tournament. Fed was also cruising and had a walkover before that loss to Berdych too. It was all lining up and would've been the perfect cap to that year long run and the ultimate redemption after 10 & 11.
Yes but at the same time it wasn't too shocking of a loss, Berdych has been always been a bogeyman for Fed pre-2014.
 
#35
He wasn't far off in 2014 either, if I remember right. Djokovic slammed the door shut decisively in the end, but in the early fall it was mathematically possible for Fed to end the year number one. If he had converted the US Open after Djokovic lost or had won the the fifth set of their Wimbledon final, he might have been able to just nose ahead. Crazy how close to the top he's managed to stay even deep into his 30s.
IIRC it was neck and neck going into Bercy until Fed lost to Raonic in the QF and Novak won the title, but even then Novak still had to win all three of his RR matches to secure the YE #1.
 
#36
It would be a crazy achievement. Absolutely frikkin mad.
And that is precisely why it won't happen.

I just hope he is 4th(3rd is too much to ask) in the race once clay ends. Thiem will most probably surpass him by the end of FO as he should. Hoap Fed stays ahead of Tsits. This way he can be 3rd once grass ends.
And then he will have a chance to be 2nd going ahead of Nadal probably but YE#1 seems extremely unlikely.

Let's devise a hypothetical scenario where Fed can become YE#1.
I am assuming that his(or anyone's) fight for YE#1 will be against Djoker instead of Nadal.
I will make a scenario and you decide how probable it is. I already think it is extremely unlikely.

Fed(current points- 2280):
Madrid: QF 180
RG: R16 180
Halle: 500
Wimbley: W 2000
Cincy & Shanghai: W & F 1000+600
USO: 360
Basel: 500
WTF: 1300
-----
Total: 8900


Djoker(current:- 2225):
Assuming he won't play Barcelona & Eastbourne & Queens & Basel/Vienna & Beijing. Will consider them later.
MC: SF 360
Madrid: F 600
Rome: SF 360
RG: F 1200
Wimbley: SF 720
Canada, Cincy, Shanghai, Paris: SF, SF, W, QF 360+360+1000+180
USO:720
WTF: 800
-------
Total: 8885

So even when I have Djoker playing like **** by his standards pretty much the whole year and Federer playing awesome pretty much everywhere (except clay and USO)-- which is the best scenario for Rog-- Rog only edges Djoker by 15 points.
If Fed loses one match outside of this best case scenario he won't have that YE#1.
Also if Djoker feels like Fed is going after the YE#1 he will certainly play Beijing or Vienna/Basel which pretty much closes the doors for a Fed YE#1.
Also as you see I have Djokovic losing in the SF of USO in this scenario and Fed losing in the QFs.
If neither of them wins it, who will?
Most probably Nadal.
And if he does he will jump right into contention for the YE#1.
Let's see.
He has 1600 till now.
1000+500+1000+180+2000 from dirt.
360 from Wimbley.
2000 from USO.
That takes him to 7640.
And then he needs about 1300(to surpass Fedovic) from Canada, Cincy, Beijing, Shanghai, Paris & WTF.
Even an injured bull can manage that.

So yeah I don't really see a scenario where Federer gets that YE#1 in the presence of healthy Djokodal.
All reasonable scenarios. But then, it was also reasonable to expect from the Sunshine Double 1100+ points from Djokr (at least a W+QF or 2 Fs, or maybe a F+SF) and 700+ from Nadl (at least 2 SFs or F+QF). Djokr left with 135pts(!) and 3 match wins, and Nadl left with 360pts and an injury. All 3 have aged, yes, but only Fedr has shown true consistency, even moreso when you consider that he was hampered by a hand injury after Stuttgrat18 thru WTF18 (still made it deep everywhere while playing meh). Fedr's form is better this year (Tsitsipas was a close loss, could've easily won).

2019 YE#1 race should be interesting either way. ;)
 
#37
I don't think it's impossible for Federer to be YE #1, stranger things have happened.... It's just that at this point in his career with the reduced schedule, he needs some outside help to make that happen. It will be interesting to see how Federer/Nadal/Djokovic are doing after Wimbledon. Everyone is making assumptions based on past performance that Nadal & Djokovic will be splitting the big titles for the rest of the year or so, but I'd like to remind everyone that Nadal's health is still a question mark and Djokovic lost early in 2 of his "fortress" on his favorite surface, so who knows what the future holds for them....we all know how easily things can change on tour.
 
#38
All reasonable scenarios. But then, it was also reasonable to expect from the Sunshine Double 1100+ points from Djokr (at least a W+QF or 2 Fs, or maybe a F+SF) and 700+ from Nadl (at least 2 SFs or F+QF). Djokr left with 135pts(!) and 3 match wins, and Nadl left with 360pts and an injury. All 3 have aged, yes, but only Fedr has shown true consistency, even moreso when you consider that he was hampered by a hand injury after Stuttgrat18 thru WTF18 (still made it deep everywhere while playing meh). Fedr's form is better this year (Tsitsipas was a close loss, could've easily won).

2019 YE#1 race should be interesting either way. ;)
I agree with most of the things you say and I don't think Fed's low changes of getting YE#1 are due to his form. It's primarily due to his schedule.
He is slated to miss 4 out of 9 masters(not sure if he is playing Paris).
And that is the biggest reason I don't think he can gain the points required for YE#1. But we will see.
 
#39
I don't think it's impossible for Federer to be YE #1, stranger things have happened.... It's just that at this point in his career with the reduced schedule, he needs some outside help to make that happen. It will be interesting to see how Federer/Nadal/Djokovic are doing after Wimbledon. Everyone is making assumptions based on past performance that Nadal & Djokovic will be splitting the big titles for the rest of the year or so, but I'd like to remind everyone that Nadal's health is still a question mark and Djokovic lost early in 2 of his "fortress" on his favorite surface, so who knows what the future holds for them....we all know how easily things can change on tour.
Exactly! My sentiments are the same a couple of posts up.

To add, Fedr has been so amazingly consistent, and so hard to beat, that even when out of form, these are his results from Stuttgart18-WFT18 starting from Halle18:
F (could've won), QF (had MP), F, 4R (should've won), SF, W, SF (could've won, had Novak on the ropes), SF. All losses are at least close, and even when having no ROS/FH, he lost to Novak 4 and 4 in Cinci18 finals.

Djokovic when out of form just lost in 3R and 4R of the Sunshine Double. He also lost to RBA earlier this year in Doha, and he could've lost before meeting RBA in 2 of his previous rounds.

Nadal hasn't been out of form much lately, but he is easily injured outside of clay for almost 2 years now (2R exit in Acapulco, and was injured before facing Fedr at IW19).

Nadalovic needs to play reasonably well to go deep, and lose early when not. Fedr does not need to be in great form to go deep (it's amazing when I think about it). And Fedr is in very good form atm. We Fedfans are in a good place ;).
 
#40
I agree with most of the things you say and I don't think Fed's low changes of getting YE#1 are due to his form. It's primarily due to his schedule.
He is slated to miss 4 out of 9 masters(not sure if he is playing Paris).
And that is the biggest reason I don't think he can gain the points required for YE#1. But we will see.
Look on the bright side, as annoying as the Fedr+YE#1 has been (gimmick really bc all weeks at #1 are the same, the YE#1 tag just seems cooler), Fedr's chances of regaining 'normal' #1, :p, is good if he can at least keep it close by year end. YE#1 may not happen, but he has a huge opportunity up to IW20 to be back at #1 (Nadalovic defends F/W of AO, a huge 'net' points shift). Just an example: if Fedr wins AO20 and Djokovic makes finals, that's a +2600pts move in favor of Fedr, etc.

I am optimistic, so I see him losing to Thiem then win Miami as a positive bc by chance it forced Fedr to re-discover his ground game in Miami. The way he went from almost losing to Albot, then winning most long rallies, to absolutely owning everyone by championship weekend was quite spectacular.
Like I said above, we Fedfans are in a good place atm :).
 
#42
I agree with most of the things you say and I don't think Fed's low changes of getting YE#1 are due to his form. It's primarily due to his schedule.
He is slated to miss 4 out of 9 masters(not sure if he is playing Paris).
And that is the biggest reason I don't think he can gain the points required for YE#1. But we will see.
I think his chances at YE1 went out the window the moment he went out in the 4th round of Australia. Only 180 points there sank him before his campaign even began.
 

Qubax

Professional
#43
I think his chances at YE1 went out the window the moment he went out in the 4th round of Australia. Only 180 points there sank him before his campaign even began.
You are very likely correct.

I think Fed's main hope at getting world #1 involves 2 steps:

1.) Have a year similar to what we outlined above
2.) Have significant enough break thrus from the next gen to limit and dilute how much Djokovic/Nadal win. Murray use to help with this. We need 1-4 of the other kids to step up and make a difference.
 
#44
Guy is 37, soon to be 38. He'll eventually gas out somewhere in the season, I believe probably after Wimbledon and only regain a bit of form around Basel.
 
#46
Unless he wins Wimbledon, no chance of YE#1. Even with Wimbledon, he'll need Nadal to slow down in the clay season and Djokovic to slow down everywhere else, so that they split the points.

Tbh, if he wins Wimbledon, I don't care about anything else, that would be just amazing in itself.
Bingo.

It's pretty hilarious that we're even talking about this. And it's literally only because Novak had a little mini-slump post-Australia and some people want to believe it's permanent.
 

Luka888

Professional
#49
I do not understand what people do not understand about THE Ranking system. It's so easy to understand. If you love tennis, you need to know about the rankings. Jesus, google it. It's all there.

Chances for Fed to be #1 again .... I don't think so. It would be fun if made it somehow :).
 

Qubax

Professional
#50
Bingo.

It's pretty hilarious that we're even talking about this. And it's literally only because Novak had a little mini-slump post-Australia and some people want to believe it's permanent.
It is hilarious we are talking about it.

But it's not unfathomable.

Djoker is the bigger year end threat then Nadal - as such if Nadal wins the French and Federer wins Wimbledon it's a good scenario heading into the hard court season.

I could actually envision a scenario where Djoker and Nadal both lose at the US Open in the QF. Fed with an incredible opportunity to win another slam bombs out in the SF and not unlike the Cilic year a rando takes the Open.

If Djoker does not win the French(Nadal), SW19(Fed) or the US Open(Tomic, joking) it bodes well for Federer having a chance to be year end #1
 
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