How many points for ATP Year-End #1?

[mightyjeditribble]

We already have Fed and Nadal this year being quite low in terms of the points they required to reach #1. If they drop further points and the available tournaments are split between different players, we could get a much lower total for the 2018 Year-End #1 than we have had for a while.

So how many points do you think the Year-End #1 will have at the conclusion of the World Tour Finals?

For your information, here are the totals since the current ranking system was introduced in 2009. (There have been a few tweaks along the way, particularly how Davis Cup and Olympics are treated, but nothing major.) Source: Wikipedia (ATP Rankings).

Current #1: 8770 (Nadal)

2009: 10550 (Federer)
2010: 12450 (Nadal)
2011: 13675 (Djokovic)
2012: 12920 (Djokovic)
2013: 13030 (Nadal)
2014: 11360 (Djokovic)
2015: 16585 (Djokovic)
2016: 12685 (Murray)
2017: 10645(Nadal)

From 2000-2008, the ranking system was different. A slam was worth 1000 points, so roughly (though not exactly) we can double these for an approximation of what the total might have been today. (Does someone have more accurate conversions?)

2000: 4195 (Kuerten)
2001: 4365 (Hewitt)
2002: 4485 (Hewitt)
2003: 4535 (Roddick)
2004: 6335 (Fed)
2005: 6725 (Fed)
2006: 8370 (Fed)
2007: 7180 (Fed)
2008: 6675 (Nadal)

So we are already in quite a historically low setting now.

Sampras 1998 season may be the low-point for recent years; he had only 3131 points. However, I don't know how the system worked back then, in order to compare properly. (I think they still gave points for defeating higher-ranked players?)

 

[EloQuent]

Is the question how many points the eventual #1 (aka Satan) will have? Or how much will be needed. All you have to be is more than #2.

 

[Plamen1234]

I think around 9-10k.We have three way race now - Federer,Nadal and Zverev.I think winner will be Nadal or Zverev.The question is how Zverev does at Slams.If he continues his consistency at Masters and lets say reaches 1 Slam final and 1 semi fina then yeah he could end as the Year - End 1

 

[mightyjeditribble]

So, in 1998 Sampras had:

AO: QF
W: W
USO: SF
YEC: SF

2 MS finals, 1 SF, 1 QF
3 other title (Philadelphia, Atlanta, Vienna), and another final (San Jose)

I guess Philadelphia & Vienna would count as 500.

So this counts up to a bit below 7000 points, with whatever other match wins he has, I guess probably he'd be in the 7000-7500 bracket?

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Is the question how many points the eventual #1 (aka Satan) will have? Or how much will be needed. All you have to be is more than #2.

The former. I think the second question is slightly misleading, as sometimes #2 may not have so many points because #1 gobbled them all up.

This year, my feeling is that the difference between #1 and #2 might not be that big, however.

 

[EloQuent]

The former. I think the second question is slightly misleading, as sometimes #2 may not have so many points because #1 gobbled them all up.

This year, my feeling is that the difference between #1 and #2 might not be that big, however.

Fair point. I think we might end up top 4-5 all within 2000 of each other.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

If Nadal was to defend all the points he has from now until the end of the year, I think we'd feel he would have been amazingly successful (despite the fact that he pulled out of Paris and missed WTF). The race currently stands at about ca. 3000 points for the top 3 (Zverev, Fed, Nadal). Fed will be limiting his tournaments. So unless Zverev goes on a roll or Fed has a 3-slam season at the age of 37, I imagine we will go down rather than up in points for #1.

So I think we'll be in the 8000-9000 range. I've gone with 8000-8500 (Kuerten level), but it could easily be 8500-9000.

 

[Plamen1234]

Also Nadal winning RG will mean he will have 5040 points when the grass season comes.If Federer wins Wimby and Halle he will 5660 points I think.So Nadal will need 600 points in the grass season to reach Federer points if Fed wins Wimby and Halle.Federer the last year had 4000 points in the ATP race before the grass season.Now it is 1000 points less.For Nadal it is 1800 points less I think

 

[BGod]

8500-9000

I don't think it takes much this year.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

9-10000

 

[KINGROGER]

Hopefully someone takes Rafa out at RG and Fed sweeps grass.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Rafa (aka year end # 1 for 2018) will finish the season with 9960 points.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Rafa (aka year end # 1 for 2018) will finish the season with 9960 points.

Bold.

 

[Sudacafan]

We already have Fed and Nadal this year being quite low in terms of the points they required to reach #1. If they drop further points and the available tournaments are split between different players, we could get a much lower total for the 2018 Year-End #1 than we have had for a while.

So how many points do you think the Year-End #1 will have at the conclusion of the World Tour Finals?

For your information, here are the totals since the current ranking system was introduced in 2009. (There have been a few tweaks along the way, particularly how Davis Cup and Olympics are treated, but nothing major.) Source: Wikipedia (ATP Rankings).

Current #1: 8770 (Nadal)

2009: 10550 (Federer)
2010: 12450 (Nadal)
2011: 13675 (Djokovic)
2012: 12920 (Djokovic)
2013: 13030 (Nadal)
2014: 11360 (Djokovic)
2015: 16585 (Djokovic)
2016: 12685 (Murray)
2017: 10645(Nadal)

From 2000-2008, the ranking system was different. A slam was worth 1000 points, so roughly (though not exactly) we can double these for an approximation of what the total might have been today. (Does someone have more accurate conversions?)

2000: 4195 (Kuerten)
2001: 4365 (Hewitt)
2002: 4485 (Hewitt)
2003: 4535 (Roddick)
2004: 6335 (Fed)
2005: 6725 (Fed)
2006: 8370 (Fed)
2007: 7180 (Fed)
2008: 6675 (Nadal)

So we are already in quite a historically low setting now.

Sampras 1998 season may be the low-point for recent years; he had only 3131 points. However, I don't know how the system worked back then, in order to compare properly. (I think they still gave points for defeating higher-ranked players?)

2015 Nole points are insane. I think this helps answer which player had the GOATest season.

 

[Sudacafan]

Also Nadal winning RG will mean he will have 5040 points when the grass season comes.If Federer wins Wimby and Halle he will 5660 points I think.So Nadal will need 600 points in the grass season to reach Federer points if Fed wins Wimby and Halle.Federer the last year had 4000 points in the ATP race before the grass season.Now it is 1000 points less.For Nadal it is 1800 points less I think

If Nadal wins RG, I estimate his chances of reaching YE#1 in at least 70%.