martinezownsclay
Hall of Fame
Going through each.
First Djokovic. He has 2012, 2013, 2014, 2020 all on absolute lock without Nadal. So 6 minimum. Despite losing to Thiem in the 2019 semis it is very possible he wins without Nadal. It would obviously be a Thiem-Djokovic final guaranteed (no chance either lose to Federer, or anyone else who was in the draw this year), and in a final instead of a semi final, Djokovic is much more likely to win as Thiem has problems in finals, and the semi final was extremely close anyway. 2008 could have gone to either Federer or Djokovic, personally I think Djokovic. So 6 minimum, but quite possibly 7 or 8.
Now Federer. I am pretty sure he wins 2005, 2006, 2007 without Nadal, although the final with Puerta in 2005 probably would have been very close. He could win 2008, although that is a toss up at best with Djokovic. Probably wins 2011, although really here do we know. Just because Federer beat Djokovic in the semis does not mean it is the same result if they play another day in the finals. Djokovic was 4-1 vs Federer this year after all. No other years are even possabilities. So 6 max, but I suspect more likely 4 or 5.
Thiem now. He wins for sure in 2018. I don't think it is even a question. He has a good shot in both 2017 and 2019, but neither are certain. 2017 is a toss up between Warwinka and Thiem probably, and 2019 between Djokovic and Thiem. So I would say 2 or 3. He might also be more motivated for RG 2020 with no Nadal in the draw, but even so 2 or 3 is still the best guesstimate.
So between 6 to 8 for Djokovic, between 4 to 6 for Federer, and 2 to 3 for Thiem.
First Djokovic. He has 2012, 2013, 2014, 2020 all on absolute lock without Nadal. So 6 minimum. Despite losing to Thiem in the 2019 semis it is very possible he wins without Nadal. It would obviously be a Thiem-Djokovic final guaranteed (no chance either lose to Federer, or anyone else who was in the draw this year), and in a final instead of a semi final, Djokovic is much more likely to win as Thiem has problems in finals, and the semi final was extremely close anyway. 2008 could have gone to either Federer or Djokovic, personally I think Djokovic. So 6 minimum, but quite possibly 7 or 8.
Now Federer. I am pretty sure he wins 2005, 2006, 2007 without Nadal, although the final with Puerta in 2005 probably would have been very close. He could win 2008, although that is a toss up at best with Djokovic. Probably wins 2011, although really here do we know. Just because Federer beat Djokovic in the semis does not mean it is the same result if they play another day in the finals. Djokovic was 4-1 vs Federer this year after all. No other years are even possabilities. So 6 max, but I suspect more likely 4 or 5.
Thiem now. He wins for sure in 2018. I don't think it is even a question. He has a good shot in both 2017 and 2019, but neither are certain. 2017 is a toss up between Warwinka and Thiem probably, and 2019 between Djokovic and Thiem. So I would say 2 or 3. He might also be more motivated for RG 2020 with no Nadal in the draw, but even so 2 or 3 is still the best guesstimate.
So between 6 to 8 for Djokovic, between 4 to 6 for Federer, and 2 to 3 for Thiem.