Roger No.1
Rookie
Yes, he has a good chance to win RG next year, he could win another one if he gets lucky. So he would need 7 RG's and play until 32.
Besides I think Fed has as much chance of winning the other 3 Slams as Rafa does.
How many slams does Federer need to win more than Rafa?
- Thread starter nadal_slam_king
- Start date
Yes, he has a good chance to win RG next year, he could win another one if he gets lucky. So he would need 7 RG's and play until 32.
Besides I think Fed has as much chance of winning the other 3 Slams as Rafa does.
nadal_slam_king
Banned
Not based on 2010, Federer used to be a lock to be in EVERY gs final, but now we aren't even sure of semis.
flyinghippos101
Legend
over 9000
yes I went there
stupid memes responses for stupid threads
yes I went there
stupid memes responses for stupid threads
WilsonWest
New User
Rafa will catch up.
Vamos Rafa
Vamos Rafa
Roger No.1
Rookie
Right, but you can't base every year on 2010. Since Nadal won his first Slam in 2005 - it took him 6 years to win 9 titles = 1.5 titles per year average.
It took Fed 8 years to win 16 = 2 per year average.
I know Fed is 29 but still has a good chance to win at least one Slam each year for the next 2-3 years with more likely to win AO, Wimbledon or US Open.
Don't forget Federer never skipped a big tournament because of the injury or retired during the match. With the way Rafa is playing - nobody know how long he can last.
FTS
Banned
good post. sums it up
nadal_slam_king
Banned
Clearly its right to base a lot on the most recent year, as it shows the trend of Federer's career - the downhill trend. Despite winning 2 slams in 2009, the actual level of tennis he was playing was better in 2008. The trend has been downhill for the last 3 years.
Tennis sensation
Legend
Fed needs to win atleast 2 to 3 slams to stay safe
M
meg0529
Guest
Fed, is already Safe. Vamos!
FTS
Banned
jinxer :evil:
Justin Side
Hall of Fame
Justin Side
Hall of Fame
I think if Fed gets to 19, his record is safe. Rafa will probably settle in somewhere between 16-18 majors by the time he's done.
jackson vile
G.O.A.T.
M
meg0529
Guest
It's so funny, a thread like this would be scoffed at a few months ago. Now it's actually getting reasonable responses. shocking. People claimed Rafa could not break past 12, now he's going to do 16? Classic. It's too soon to say, but there is a high chance that he will win AO next year. It's hard to talk about Rafa too far into the future. A pessimistic number is 4. If he wins AO next year, then 5. Putting him in the 13-14 range.
FTS
Banned
You don't speak for everyone. Here's a Fed fan that predicted Rafa would win 2006 Wimbledon, and I have a post to prove it. (And I don't think he has a good chance of winning the AO next year.)
nadal_slam_king
Banned
I think the key to Rafa not getting 16-20 is Roland Garros. If Rafa continues to cruise through Roland Garros next year there will be speculation that he can keep doing it there for a long time. By winning that slam every year for the next 4 years he automatically gets to 13 slams. Aside from that you have to like his chances of winning some slams outside of clay considering how many he's won recently. But yeah if you are hoping for Rafa to not reach or exceed 16 then just look at Roland Garros and hope he starts having trouble there (and that would be reliant on him not being able to get his knees free of tendonitis flareups early in the clay season like in 2009).
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nadal_slam_king
Banned
It's only safe to assume Rafa will retire by age 30 if you judge him by the standards of players of the past. I don't know if that's a safe thing to do. He's not Jim Courier, he's not Michael Chang, he's not Lleyton Hewitt. And he has no knee surgeries, he's not Mark Philippoussis. Rafa has tendonitis, and what we know about tendonitis is that it doesn't end careers, it's not an injury, its a condition that often only requires rest. During Rafa's prime years he's not prepared to rest, so blood-spinning has become the solution and successfully in 2010 when he's had tendonitis twice and gone onto win slams after treatment. Later in Rafa's career he will likely be more open to the idea of rest, and that could come during the hardcourt seasons as he focuses his attention on clay.
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Justin Side
Hall of Fame
I don't think it's safe to say Nadal will retire before he's 30. He might be borderline washed up by 30, but I doubt he'll be 100% retired. Hewitt has been injury prone year after year with surgery after surgery in the last half-decade. But even he'll make it to 30 next year while still being on tour. Most guys just can't hang it up before spending years on tour as a shadow of their former-selves. Odds are Rafa will join that group.
nadal_slam_king
Banned
Plus Rafa doesn't need surgeries, because he only has tendonitis. Venus, Serena and Roddick have had tendonitis all their careers, and look how old they are and still 3 of the best players in the world. Hewitt is quite a different situation, he gets REAL injuries, plus he's not very strong compared to Rafa. I put Hewitt, Chang and Courier in a particular category. They are all grinders but none of them are on Rafa's level athletically.
powerangle
Legend
Can't count out great players like Fed and Rafa. Fed now may not be as much of a "lock" compared to his prime years, but Federer made all GS finals as recently as last year (2009). QF's this year at RG and Wim are nothing to scoff at...yes they are "blips" but even Rafa himself fell in the 4th round in RG last year. Yes I know Rafa was injured and that exactly shows that anything can happen in tennis.
After Rafa, who else is the favorite to reach all 4 slam finals? That's right, it's Roger. After Rafa, Federer has as good a chance as any to reach the RG final. And Federer has at least equal chances to reach the other three slam finals (AO, Wimby, USO). This does not count their H2H of course, just their chances of making GS finals against the field. And it would not be a shock if he made 3 slam finals next year.
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nadal_slam_king
Banned
I wouldn't be shocked either. But I don't think the odds are in Federer's favor of reaching 3 GS Finals next year. As much as people want to believe that Federer is better with Annacone, I'm still seeing the same shanks as I saw before Annacone, and the fact remains that Federer won the 2010 Australian Open and then couldn't duplicate that at the US Open with Annacone. The one thing that has improved with Federer is his keenness to play non-slams. And I don't think that's going to help him in slams. But I agree, I wouldn't be shocked if Federer made 3 slam Finals, but that doesn't mean the odds are in his favor of achieving that.
Talker
Hall of Fame
It's going to be interesting to see if Fed's sudden apparent interest in these lower tournaments will help him reach a higher level than he has recently.
It would seem as long as he doesn't run himself down it should help.
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For the OP, Fed would need just one more than Rafa.
I figure Nadal will pick up 4-5 more.
Seems like he should do this easily but slams aren't as easy as Fed and Nadal make it look.
There's a lot of other variables that need to be considered in another thread or maybe 100 other threads.
It would seem as long as he doesn't run himself down it should help.
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For the OP, Fed would need just one more than Rafa.
I figure Nadal will pick up 4-5 more.
Seems like he should do this easily but slams aren't as easy as Fed and Nadal make it look.
There's a lot of other variables that need to be considered in another thread or maybe 100 other threads.
FTS
Banned
I am worried about this.
He needs to skip the rest and bring his best for the slams. I think he just wants to prove something to himself.
mtommer
Hall of Fame
If Nadal wins 2 GS per year in the next 3 years he's at 15.
If it's 3 GS per year in the next 3 years he's at 18 and beating Roger.
It should be obvious to anyone by now that Nadal can win the big one on any surface and that's he a huge favorite along side Federer to keep winning them; and Federer is less of a favorite right now.
So, realistically, I think Federer needs to get to 20 to make it really tough on Nadal if it is indeed Nadal's goal to surpass Federer. I would say, 22 or 23 would work Nadal enough mentally that he may stop trying to catch Federer.
If it's 3 GS per year in the next 3 years he's at 18 and beating Roger.
It should be obvious to anyone by now that Nadal can win the big one on any surface and that's he a huge favorite along side Federer to keep winning them; and Federer is less of a favorite right now.
So, realistically, I think Federer needs to get to 20 to make it really tough on Nadal if it is indeed Nadal's goal to surpass Federer. I would say, 22 or 23 would work Nadal enough mentally that he may stop trying to catch Federer.
nadal_slam_king
Banned
Plus I honestly think Rafa can win Roland Garros for the next 5 years at least (say he wins 4 RG's in the next 5 years). I think by the time Rafa is 30 there will be a new kid on the clay block beating Rafa, but Rafa will still have enough game to win Roland Garros after age 30 (just not as easily and with some losses to the new kid on the clay block). Rafa has a good shot at winning 10 Roland Garros titles. He's that dominant, that even long past his prime he will still be a threat for the title.
mtommer
Hall of Fame
Rafa's dominance on clay is solely dependent upon him getting to balls that nobody else does, on a routine basis. For any other player those balls would be points to the hitter. I'm not sure if his speed is going to hold up for the next five years just because he'll be approaching 30 at that point and players naturally slow down. I'm not saying it's impossible, it is Nadal after all, but even Roger is starting to show physical vulnerabilities at this point with his back and this isn't even taking into account that we know Nadal's knees may not hold up. I will say that RG is Nadal's best chance to be dominant though of any Slam though that's pretty much stating the obvious *shrug*.
Now here's another intersting question that came to mind when reading your post. What do you think is the best way for Federer to win additional Slams such that it doesn't discourage Nadal but serves to keep the flame of his desire going?
nadal_slam_king
Banned
Federer is best on hardcourts, so that's where he can win more slams. He almost made the US Open Final. He won the last Australian Open. If he keeps getting those results then I don't think he'll retire anytime soon. And I think he still is better than Murray and Djokovic in the hardcourt slams, but I think if Rafa is in the final then Rafa will beat Federer in the hardcourt slams. So that means Federer's destiny is directly linked to Rafa.
If Rafa continues great hardcourt success in the next 2 years (Rafa won the 2009 AO and 2010 USO) then Federer will retire in 2 years. If Federer wins hardcourt slams in the next 2 years then he will probably continue playing beyond the 2 years. I'm not convinced anyone can regularly stop Federer from winning hardcourt slams unless Rafa manages to make hardcourt slam finals regularly (and that means Rafa has to overcome Murray on hardcourts).
Of course, its impossible to know when he will retire. Its just speculation and assumption. You obviously know more about Nadal's injuries than I know, or care to know. He has lost valuable playing time due to injury/condition in the past, so you take that into account.
More importantly, we've never seen a player with his level of intensity during every single point (maybe Hewitt or Connors). But on top of intensity, he brings a level of physicality that we certainly have never seen. I don't mean athleticism, I mean physical effort and strength that people can see and feel during his matches. I think your average fan assumes that he cannot keep this up forever. And if this level drops and his performance suffers, maybe he would not enjoy competing at less than 100% intensity/effort. We will just have to sit back, enjoy watching him play and see what happens.
I addressed some of this in a previous post, but wanted to respond directly. That is a very interesting and unique perspective on Nadal's motivation. I really didn't take into account the psychological issues related to a decrease in ability versus the continued desire to compete at the highest level. Now I'm wondering if Nadal will be one of those guys who continues to try to fool himself into believing that he is as good as ever, even when its obvious to the rest of the world that he is not. I think Sampras was an excellent example of that type of mentality. But, he was able to have a fairy tale ending, regardless of his inconsistency and low confidence during the last year of his career. He was able to dial up his game one more time and go out on top. For some reason, I don't see Nadal having that kind of mentality. Although he is focused and very workmanlike in his approach to the game, Nadal doesn't seem to have the same burdens that Sampras seemed to have during points in his career where he struggled. It will be interesting to see how it all turns out.
nadal_slam_king
Banned
I think a lot of people were saying in 2009 that we'd never see Rafa play at the 2008 level again. As it turned out, he played arguably better in 2010 than he played in 2008. And he is certainly a better hardcourt player now, less reliant on defense than ever before. So nobody really has a clue about how long Rafa will be at the top of his game. Maybe until 30, maybe until 35+, we have no idea.
MyHeroRafael
Banned
The question is, how many slams should Rafael win to not depend on Federina's fall of a career at all. I'd say next year's AO, hence a Serena Slam, would be enough to surpass Rodge once and for all.
nadal_slam_king
Banned
Yeah that's the shortcut to surreal greatness, because if he wins that he can set a new Open Era record by winning 5 straight slams when he travels to Roland Garros. And if he wins Roland Garros that means he's in with a big chance of breaking the Sampras record of winning a slam 7 times. So those 2 records are enough to seal the deal, even without the total slams record.
Sentinel
Bionic Poster
Mess: So, does anyone think that rafa has all the incapabilities to lose all the minors?
RITG: He has the incapabilties to dont win the CYGS in 2011
cork_screw
Hall of Fame
I have a feeling fed will end his career with 18 GS. And Nadal will get at least 19, but feel more like 20 is nadal's magic retirement number.
Sentinel
Bionic Poster
Sadly, as much as I respect Roger, the only way i see him winning another slam is ... if Rafa is not healty.
It all depends on Rafa now. Roger could win 0 or even 4 more.
Rafito: If healty he coud easily reach twinty.
__________________
Yes, but if Rafa is at his without injuries he would beat everybody even if they would play at there best!!!!
Sentinel
Bionic Poster
Immaculate logic, my friend. I don't think the *******s will have any answer to that. Well done.
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nadal_slam_king
Banned
Pleasure is all mine, anytime.
Solely base on that? What about his relentless top spin to the opponent's BH?
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