Ah I see what you mean. Thanks for clarifying. I’m not sure I really agree – I certainly don’t think Djokovic failed to realize, in 2013, that Nadal was good at passing shots lol. And that same position, the short ball to the backhand, flummoxed him throughout his career against Nadal on clay. I remember a lot of rallies early on (08, 09) where Novak went for a hard cross-court shot there, prepared to retreat to the baseline, and got burned up the line by Nadal – either a clean forehand winner from Nadal or a scrambling, back-foot shot from Novak to cede control of the rally.
Was he better at handling that situation in recent years? Maybe. Though surely some of that is down to Nadal’s reduced foot speed. Rafa wasn’t as good at defending, so Novak had more options at his disposal. He didn’t have to be as perfect. And incidentally, he still hit plenty of bad droppers. Consider this from Waspsting’s analysis of their 2021 match:
“Serving at 5-6, Djoko’s down break and set point. A rally develops and Djoko pulls out his BH drop shot. You can count on one hand the number of matches where Djoko wins more points than he loses drop shotting Nadal on clay and this match is no different. When Djoko plays the shot, he’d won 1/10 points in the match going for BH drop shot. All that matters is on this point, he makes it for a winner. He misses another one early in tiebreak from well inside court shortly after, and finishes match winning 4/15 points won when going for it (also 1/1 with FH drop shot).”
15 different points in four sets, Djokovic hit a backhand dropper. And that’s a match he won! And he blew his break lead in the fourth set in 2022 with some poor shot selection in that short-ball-to-the-backhand position, including a drop shot Nadal returned for a winner. According to Tennis Abstract, he hit 15 backhand droppers (winning 40%) in 2022 as well, compared to just 11 (winning 55%) across five sets in 2013. Maybe on average he’s better now at dealing with that situation than he was in 2013, but it’s not, like, night and day. He still goes for dumb droppers – more now, actually, than 10 years ago. And obviously that’s just one facet of baseline play and strategy.