How much of Federer's decline in 2008 was due to the height of opponents?

How much did it affect Fed's success?

  • A lot

    Votes: 6 12.2%
  • A bit

    Votes: 3 6.1%
  • Not at all

    Votes: 40 81.6%

  • Total voters
    49

Madinolf

Rookie
Average height of top10s:

2003 - 183.3
2004 - 183.0
2005 - 181.7
2006 - 184.3
2007 - 182.7

2008 - 186.9
2009 - 188.2
2010 - 187.2
2011 - 185.9
2012 - 187.1

In 2003-07 Federer won 12 Slams.
In 2008-12 Federer won 5 Slams.

In 2003-07 he was taller than his main opponents.
In 2008-12 he was shorter than his main opponents.

How much did this affect Federer's results?
 

mwym

Semi-Pro
It is not where the cause is. The cause is between Federer's ears. But if you have to 'see it to believe it', you will never find it.
 

Sunny014

Legend
No, once the tall guys took over, Fedr became the field, and I have it on good authority that the field always catches up and evolves
In 2008 he faced Djokovic or Nadal at all four Slams. In 2009 only at two of them.

I was checking stats and this is what they say

(Federer's win% in Slams/BEST OF 5 vs 6'2 and above) & (Federer's win% in BEST OF 3 vs 6'2 and above)

2001 - 100% and 82%
2002 - 0% (did not play any) and 81.5%
2003 - 100% and 75%
2004 - 80% and 95%
2005 - 75% and 100%
2006 - 100% and 94.4%
2007 - 100% and 92.9%
2008 - 91.7% and 77.8%
2009 - 94.7% and 74%
2010 - 70% and 81.3%
2011 - 66% and 82%
2012 - 81.8% and 76%
2013 - 66% and 72%
2014 - 78% and 87%
2015 - 70% and 75.9%
2016 - 66% and 62%
2017 - 90% and 89.5% ( Congrats @Madinolf aka @Lew 2, tour suddenly became as short as Hewitt )
2018 - 88.9% and 72%
2019 - 70% and 85%
 

pj80

Hall of Fame
Yes Qualies
It is on SteveGTennis.com and it is also on wikipedia and in some other prominent websites too......
in that case Djoker is 5-4 vs Wawrinka in slams

2019US OpenR16HardStan WawrinkaNovak Djokovic6-4 7-5 2-1 ret.
2016US OpenFHardStan WawrinkaNovak Djokovic6-7(1) 6-4 7-5 6-3
2015FO - RGFClayStan WawrinkaNovak Djokovic4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4
2015Australian OpenSFHardNovak DjokovicStan Wawrinka7-6(1) 3-6 6-4 4-6 6-0
2014Australian OpenQFHardStan WawrinkaNovak Djokovic2-6 6-4 6-2 3-6 9-7
2013US OpenSFHardNovak DjokovicStan Wawrinka2-6 7-6 3-6 6-3 6-4
2013Australian OpenR16HardNovak DjokovicStan Wawrinka1-6 7-5 6-4 6-7(5) 12-10
2012US OpenR16HardNovak DjokovicStan Wawrinka6-4 6-1 3-1 Retired
 

Sunny014

Legend
in that case Djoker is 5-4 vs Wawrinka in slams

2019US OpenR16HardStan WawrinkaNovak Djokovic6-4 7-5 2-1 ret.
2016US OpenFHardStan WawrinkaNovak Djokovic6-7(1) 6-4 7-5 6-3
2015FO - RGFClayStan WawrinkaNovak Djokovic4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4
2015Australian OpenSFHardNovak DjokovicStan Wawrinka7-6(1) 3-6 6-4 4-6 6-0
2014Australian OpenQFHardStan WawrinkaNovak Djokovic2-6 6-4 6-2 3-6 9-7
2013US OpenSFHardNovak DjokovicStan Wawrinka2-6 7-6 3-6 6-3 6-4
2013Australian OpenR16HardNovak DjokovicStan Wawrinka1-6 7-5 6-4 6-7(5) 12-10
2012US OpenR16HardNovak DjokovicStan Wawrinka6-4 6-1 3-1 Retired
Yes, I always mention Davis Cup win for Novak was well when I talk of H2Hs. So he is 5-4
You can include Qualifiers of 2005 AO as well in overall H2H...but that is not best of 5

Sameway Wawrinka is not 4-3 vs Murray in best of 5 ..... actual best of 5 H2H is 5-3 for stan-murray .... Davis Cup included .... back in the 70s, 80s and even in 90s I think so, Davis cup meant a lot, Becker and MCenroe had an epic 6 hour match there once, so no sense to exclude Davis Cup.
 
Last edited:

RaulRamirez

Legend
Putting these insightful threads together, I've come to this point of view:

If Roger had worked more on his upper body - and also tried to stretch his height - went to a larger frame, avoided mono, and wasn't a stubborn choke artist, he would've won, at minimum, 23 slams in a row. In any era.

C'mon guys, I like Roger, but stop the hagiography...about any of these guys. Respect what they've accomplished, as it's pretty amazing as is.

Same with Rafa's injuries - it's just part of the sport. Deal with it - he has.

Same with Novak's diet change early on, or injury, etc walkabout from mid-2016 thru mid-2018.
All part of the deal.

Millions of players would've given anything for each of their relative good fortune, not to mention the fortunes they've earned from being the best of the best.
 

tudwell

Legend
Since the question was mainly about slams, I think the answer is none. Djokovic was the only one of these taller top-10 players to beat him in a slam, and he's a massive outlier in terms of talent and ability (i.e., it's not simply because he was taller that he beat Federer).

And in general most of his losses that year were to players either a) outside the top 10 altogether or b) established, older top-10 players like Nadal, Roddick, Blake.
 

Lleytonstation

G.O.A.T.
The real Lew would give us a height to ELO index
I dont understand why we havent talked about the hair slowing these players down? Where is the stats on that? Sampras had the most hair which is why a less hairy Fed took over. Then Rafa took over as he had much less hair as well, but then Djoker came to the scene and now I dont know what to think. Then again, he started shaving his chest? Maybe this played a role in his slam comeback? Need to see the stats first.
 

Sunny014

Legend
Putting these insightful threads together, I've come to this point of view:

If Roger had worked more on his upper body - and also tried to stretch his height - went to a larger frame, avoided mono, and wasn't a stubborn choke artist, he would've won, at minimum, 23 slams in a row. In any era.

C'mon guys, I like Roger, but stop the hagiography...about any of these guys. Respect what they've accomplished, as it's pretty amazing as is.

Same with Rafa's injuries - it's just part of the sport. Deal with it - he has.

Same with Novak's diet change early on, or injury, etc walkabout from mid-2016 thru mid-2018.
All part of the deal.

Millions of players would've given anything for each of their relative good fortune, not to mention the fortunes they've earned from being the best of the best.
My simple point is, when Nadal was becoming a bigger pain in the buttocks in 08-09 period and the rest of the tour had become pretty strong in 09 as well, then what stopped Roger from trying a different racquet in 2009-2010 after crossing Pete's slam record ??

The year 2010 was disastrous for Roger, he should have taken the plunge, plus his coach was dumb too, should have had the courage to hire some former player to address this issue, Roger was just too rigid to improvise
 

RaulRamirez

Legend
My simple point is, when Nadal was becoming a bigger pain in the buttocks in 08-09 period and the rest of the tour had become pretty strong in 09 as well, then what stopped Roger from trying a different racquet in 2009-2010 after crossing Pete's slam record ??

The year 2010 was disastrous for Roger, he should have taken the plunge, plus his coach was dumb too, should have had the courage to hire some former player to address this issue, Roger was just too rigid to improvise
Water under the bridge. And you always seem to proceed on the assumption that Roger is this one godlike figure, and that we need to investigate or excuse why two players came along right away who were just as great and accomplished, and possibly even moreso.

So, what if Novak went gluten-free earlier? I don't know, because he didn't.
What if more than one major were on clay or the ATP Finals was sometimes on clay, or if Rafa did not have persistent injuries? I don't know. That's not what happened.
 

daddy

Legend
Average height of top10s:

...

How much did this affect Federer's results?
Wrong premise. The data you analyzed may have coincided with the slight decline in slam winning percentage but it's fair to say this has nothing to do with why.
 

Sunny014

Legend
Water under the bridge. And you always seem to proceed on the assumption that Roger is this one godlike figure, and that we need to investigate or excuse why two players came along right away who were just as great and accomplished, and possibly even moreso.

So, what if Novak went gluten-free earlier? I don't know, because he didn't.
What if more than one major were on clay or the ATP Finals was sometimes on clay, or if Rafa did not have persistent injuries? I don't know. That's not what happened.
Yes Roger is Godlike, he is the greatest strokemaker in tennis who games is perfectly fit for fast court era as well as slow courts, plus he is the greatest brand ambassador to Tennis and he radiates class wherever he goes.

He is the GOAT by far, so yes we have to investigate.

As far as Novak being glutten free? I don't think he would have done anything in those finals and semis where he lost to Federer who was much better, Novak is below Roger in stature and shall always be.

Thats why US open ladies final got more coverage than US open men's final !
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
Federer didn’t do well against many lesser players in 2008. Either he had a bad year, or all of these other players evolved by getting taller that year.

Here are some examples:
Opponent..................record in 2008..................record outside of 2008
Stepanek......................2-1........................................13-1
Roddick........................0-1.........................................20-2
Fish................................0-1..........................................8-0
Simon............................1-2..........................................6-0
Blake...............................1-1.........................................9-0
Total..............................4-6, .400.................................56-3, .949

Mardy Fish was ranked #98 in the world when he beat Federer. The best part is that Mardy only got 32% of his first serves in.
 

ForehandRF

Hall of Fame
That match was actually one of the worst matches I've seen Fed play outside of those in years like 2013 or 2016 or 2021 (because it feels like cheating to include injury seasons).
I would say that the Indian Wells match vs Fish is the worst match I have ever seen Fed play, worse even than his match Vs Goffin at the YEC in 2017.It's been a while, but this is how I remember it :D
 

ForehandRF

Hall of Fame
Federer didn’t do well against many lesser players in 2008. Either he had a bad year, or all of these other players evolved by getting taller that year.

Here are some examples:
Opponent..................record in 2008..................record outside of 2008
Stepanek......................2-1........................................13-1
Roddick........................0-1.........................................20-2
Fish................................0-1..........................................8-0
Simon............................1-2..........................................6-0
Blake...............................1-1.........................................9-0
Total..............................4-6, .400.................................56-3, .949

Mardy Fish was ranked #98 in the world when he beat Federer. The best part is that Mardy only got 32% of his first serves in.
Not to mention that he was a mess vs the top 10.There were 3 or 4 tournaments where he played well, that including Wimbledon and the USO.
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
Not to mention that he was a mess vs the top 10.There were 3 or 4 tournaments where he played well, that including Wimbledon and the USO.
That's very true. He was a long ways away from playing .900+ ball, or winning 24 straight vs the top 10 like he did a few years earlier. Heck, he was losing to a lot of much lower-ranked players.
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
Did Roddick, Karlovic and Simon grow in 2008?
They grew about 5 inches in 2008-- Roddick, Stepanek, Mardy Fish, Simon, and James Blank. Unfortunately, they shrank the very next year. Federer shrank 4 inches in 2008 and never recovered that lost height.

There's new goat ranking stat. Titles and weeks at #1 are all out the window. It's now called inches. You must be at least 74 inches tall to be considered good.
 
He looked fine in 2009 to me. I mean he reached the final of every slam. LOL. 2008 Nadal/Nole/Del Potro came along. Which are better than Roddick/Hewitt/Davydenko/Baghaditis/Kiefer/Blake
 
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