How much talent did Andrei Medvedev have?

buscemi

Legend
When Fonseca won Buenos Aires, various sites posted lists of the youngest players to win ATP titles since 1990. Andrei Medvedev featured prominently, with three titles at age 17 in 1992: (1) Genoa (beating Pérez Roldán in the final); (2) Stuttgart Outdoor (beating Wayne Ferreira in a five set final); and (3) Bordeaux (beating Bruguera in the final).

Then, in 1993, at age 18 (turning 19 on August 31st), Medvedev showed he could be a threat across surfaces, winning Estoril (over Karel Nováček) and Barcelona (again over Bruguera) on clay, making the Halle final on grass (losing to Leconte), winning New Haven on hard courts (over Korda), and making the Bercy final on carpet (losing to Ivanišević). Medvedev was a semifinalist at the French Open (this time losing to eventual champion Bruguera) and also on carpet at WTF (conquering Courier and Chang in the RR stage). At 19 years, 4 months old, he finished #6 in the world.

In 1994, still at age 19, he won both Monte Carlo (again over Bruguera) and Hamburg (over Kafelnikov) to climb to #4 in the world. At the French, he would again lose to Bruguera (this time in the QF), knocking him down to #6. Then, at Wimbledon, he again showed solid grass skills, making the Round of 16 and extending Becker in an infamous five set match before losing, 6-7, 7-5, 7-6, 6-7, 7-5. As some of you might recall, Becker broke the rules by getting a massage during a bathroom break (and was fined), which shows how much the teenager was physically challenging him. With Medvedev's solid performance on the grass, he rose back up to #5.

He wouldn't get close to that ranking for the rest of his career. The rest of 1994 was filled with mediocre results, dropping the Ukranian to year-end #15 at age 20. 1995 was highlighted by another Hamburg title, but not much else as he finished year-end #16. Then, things got pretty dim other than yet another Hamburg title in 1997. He was year-end #35 in 1996. Year-end #27 in 1997. Year-end #62 in 1998.

Finally, in 1999 he showed signs of life at the French Open, straight setting Kuerten (who had won Monte Carlo and Rome) on the way to the final where he dominated Agassi for two sets before a rain delay changed momentum and the match. Medvedev notched a win over Krajicek at the Grand Slam Cup, but didn't do much the rest of the year, finishing year-end #31. He would play a couple more years, but not reach another final anywhere. After his promising results as a teenager on hard, carpet, and grass in 1993-1994, Medvedev wouldn't make another final on any of these surfaces and never came close again to the top 5 status he reached at age 19. With 4 Masters Series titles, Medvedev is behind only Zverev (7) and Rios (5) among players with the most Masters Series titles, but no Majors.

So, what happened? There were no clear injury issues that changed his fortunes. Instead, reports are that he simply lacked motivation, which was evident by his change in physique. When he hit the scene as a teenager, Medvedev was a skinny 6'4", but he started packing on the pounds as he hit 20s, hindering his movement. This added heft helped him in Hamburg, where he was able to hit through the heavy conditions. But it did him no favors elsewhere.

In assessing his game, I recall people at the time saying he was a bigger, stronger version of Kafelnikov, with more juice on his serve and an equally solid two handed backhand. And, indeed, he ended up 6-5 against the Russian, who was his most frequent opponent. But, whereas Yevgeny maximized his game, Andrei left a lot on the table.

But how much? I post this as the Krickstein thread is toward the top of the forum. These were two players who started stacking the titles at age 17 and reached the top 10 (top 5 for Medvedev) as teenagers. In the Krickstein thread, the pretty clear answer to why he didn't achieve more was a series of severe injuries. Was the only thing that held Medvedev back his lack of motivation/training? Or was there something else?
 
Funny you mention Perez-Roldan - he won 2 titles as a 17 year old. But no one thought he would be some great(young Agassi destroying him at '88 RG showed what real young talent was). Again, the amount of 17/18 year olds on tour was staggering back then(which is why 32 year olds back then were considered geriatric)

But yeah Medvedev was the real deal(unlike Krickstein). His run to 4th round of RG on his debut as a 17 year old got a lot of attention and hype(and world #1 Courier put him in his place). I've probably posted more about Medvedev than anyone here over the years (esp since he gets used as a weak era argument with all the numbers dorks here using ranking as a way of deciding what an easy slam run was - he was ranked 100 at time of '99 RG final etc so that makes him a bum or something)

I predicted him to make the '93 USO final after the many 1st week upsets, but he kind of laid an egg vs Pioline(and the commentators were bummed - there were no "stories" that year, a 19 year old making the final at least was something to talk about). He spent a lot of time at '93 USO talking about how ****ty the food was, how the players lounge sucked, and how the USO just sucked in general. Maybe that attitude gives you an idea of why he may have underachieved.

Despite those grass results you mention, he hated grass and fast surfaces in general(and talked about that). He's one of those guys who would have liked the slower conditions of today. Back then it was really hard for a baseliner without a massive serve to consistently contend on faster surfaces. Yeah Medvedev had a big serve but to be a consistent grasscourt threat back then you needed to sort of be a servebot or be a good to very good serve and volleyer. He was talented, but no Agassi(but who was). And ditto with carpet, yeah he had some good results but he kind of looked like Chang when he got manhandled by Goran at '93 Paris and Sampras at '93 YEC, despite being a big guy with power(contrast that to say baseliner Enqvist who could go toe to toe with anyone indoors - and brought his big serve out a lot more than Medvedev)

So really clay was the surface where you expected him to really excell on. His matches with Bruguera at 'RG were highly anticipated but ended up being very disappointing, like Pioline at USO he kind of froze in those big matches. But still at the time of '94 RG, if you asked anyone on tour who was more likely to win '95 RG him or Muster, everyone would say Medvedev. And I certainly couldn't have seen Muster destroying him at '95 RG after the '94 clay season. The Muster rise was very unexpected, so he was a bit unlucky(I would have picked Medvedev over Chang if that was the '95 RG final - weird error on wikipedia - they list Medvedev as a wildcard at '95 RG??). But he liked the nightlife, so I have trouble seeing him training like a Courier or Muster to fully exploit all the natural clay court talent he had. But yeah circa '94, no one could have imagined Kafelnikov would win 2 majors and Medvedev zero(but Kafelnikov was pretty fit)

So I'd say his issues were - lack of dedication, nerves in big matches, and not really taking advantage of his big serve (guess lack of dedication goes into this). Her certainly didn't maximize his talent, unfortunately(he was one of the most quotable players of his time - he would have been a media darling if he was a consistent top 5 guy)
 
To be brutally honest I always thought he was overhyped, and would never achieve nearly as much as people predicted he would. Mind you I did expect him to have a better career than he ultimately did, and expected in the early days he would win atleast 1 slam, which he did not ultimately even manage, and only made 1 slam final, very late in his career past anyone expecting it.

I always predicted Kafelnikov had more talent and would wind up being the better player, which he ultimately did, which is against what most people were predicting at the time. Even though Medvedev, the slightly younger player, was getting better results initially.
 
I'm slightly too young to have seen much of Vilas' career, so Medvedev's tweener against Courier at Monte Carlo in 1994 was the first that I remember:

 
But yeah Medvedev was the real deal(unlike Krickstein).
I don't doubt your recollections, but I'm still so confused as to why Krickstein wouldn't have been seen as a Slam contender.

In 1983, 17 year-old Edberg was the talk of the tennis world, completing the junior Grand Slam by taking the title at Flushing Meadows. And yet it was Krickstein, a player 1.5 years his junior, who took him out in five sets in the U.S. Open main draw before another five set epic win over Gerulaitis (replayed during rain delays before it was replaced by Krickstein's own epic five set loss to Connors).

And then, in 1984, while Edberg played well, Krickstein was compiling the better results, becoming the youngest player to win the U.S. Pro Tennis Championship, making the Italian Open final, reaching the top 10, and ending the year with 10 straight wins, including beating Wilander on red clay in Europe.

Then, yeah...Krickstein had his first serious injuries in 1985 while Edberg rose the ranks and won the Australian Open.

But why wouldn't Krickstein have been seen as a Slam contender in the period from the 1983 U.S. Open-the end of the 1984 season? He was setting records left and right as the youngest player to win a singles title and the youngest player to enter the top 10, records that still stand today.

EDIT: Here's a piece by Mitch Albom I found from after Krickstein lost to Becker in the 1989 U.S. Open SF. He notes:

When he first turned pro, seven years ago, as a high school junior, no one could count all the rainbows ahead for Aaron Krickstein. He was the next Connors, the next American hero, the next whatever. But potential in tennis is like rocket fuel, it burns fast. It flew Krickstein to within 20 feet of the mountaintop, then dropped him on a ledge. He has been looking for a foothold since.​

See, that squares with what I was thinking, which is that he was seen as something like the next Connors, which would make sense with Krickstein making his first big splash at the 1983 U.S. Open just as Connors was winning his final Major.
 
He had as much talent as any other almost slam champ. What you say about his physique change is interesting. That's often very overlooked when players seem to plateau or decline.

It's much more common for women to struggle with that but many men are clearly better when they still have that coltish physique and movement.
 
Funny you mention Perez-Roldan - he won 2 titles as a 17 year old. But no one thought he would be some great(young Agassi destroying him at '88 RG showed what real young talent was). Again, the amount of 17/18 year olds on tour was staggering back then(which is why 32 year olds back then were considered geriatric)
Love this detail on his Wiki page: "At the 1988 US Open, John McEnroe expressed outrage at being seeded lower than Pérez Roldán, who had not yet won a match on hard courts. However, Pérez Roldán silenced critics by progressing further in the tournament than McEnroe."
 
Tying together Medvedev, Krickstein, and Pérez Roldán, here's a list of the players with the most titles as a teenager:

#1 Borg (17)​
#2 Nadal (16)​
#3 Wilander (13)​
#4 Becker (12)​
#5 Agassi (10)​
#6 Medvedev (8)
#7 Hewitt (7)​
#8T Edberg & Chang (6)​
#10T Connors, McEnroe, Noah, Arias, Pérez Roldán, Sampras, Roddick, Djokovic (5)​
#18T Krickstein, Carlsson, del Potro (4)​

So, Medvedev is only behind 5 ATGs, all with 6+ Majors.

Pérez Roldán and Arias join Medvedev as the only players with 5+ titles as a teenager who never won a Major.

Krickstein raced out to four titles from age 16-17.5 before injuries derailed his career, similar to both of the other players who won 4 titles as teens (albeit with their injuries coming when they were a bit older).
 
Tying together Medvedev, Krickstein, and Pérez Roldán, here's a list of the players with the most titles as a teenager:

#1 Borg (17)​
#2 Nadal (16)​
#3 Wilander (13)​
#4 Becker (12)​
#5 Agassi (10)​
#6 Medvedev (8)
#7 Hewitt (7)​
#8T Edberg & Chang (6)​
#10T Connors, McEnroe, Noah, Arias, Pérez Roldán, Sampras, Roddick, Djokovic (5)​
#18T Krickstein, Carlsson, del Potro (4)​

So, Medvedev is only behind 5 ATGs, all with 6+ Majors.

Pérez Roldán and Arias join Medvedev as the only players with 5+ titles as a teenager who never won a Major.

Krickstein raced out to four titles from age 16-17.5 before injuries derailed his career, similar to both of the other players who won 4 titles as teens (albeit with their injuries coming when they were a bit older).

I think some players just naturally develop faster, it doesn't mean they are the ones with the most talent overall or who were destined to be the best, even with better luck with injuries. Think of Hingis who was the best under 18 player ever, other than maybe Connolly, even over both Graf and Seles, yet we see was never destined to be the GOAT or even one of the GOATs. Think of Capriati the best under 16 player in history, and Chang and Becker, two of the best under 18 players in history by far (although Becker did go on to become a great, Chang less so). Krickstein was incredibly unlucky with injuries, but I think best case scenario is he remains a top 10 player, and is lucky to win a major. I also don't think Medvedev had the potential he looked to have from his early results.
 
I think some players just naturally develop faster, it doesn't mean they are the ones with the most talent overall or who were destined to be the best, even with better luck with injuries. Think of Hingis who was the best under 18 player ever, other than maybe Connolly, even over both Graf and Seles, yet we see was never destined to be the GOAT or even one of the GOATs. Think of Capriati the best under 16 player in history, and Chang and Becker, two of the best under 18 players in history by far (although Becker did go on to become a great, Chang less so). Krickstein was incredibly unlucky with injuries, but I think best case scenario is he remains a top 10 player, and is lucky to win a major. I also don't think Medvedev had the potential he looked to have from his early results.
That's all fair. Of course, I would say that Chang was on the short side and Hingis was on the slight side, with both eventually getting outgunned by bigger/stronger opponents. I think both Becker and Capriati had the talent to accomplish more, although they still did win 6 and 3 Majors, respectively.

I still can't quite get a bead on Krickstein's potential. There's nothing about his game that stands out to me other than a really good, but not, great forehand and his amazing five set record, even with all the injuries. I feel like there's still something we're all missing that made him probably the best 16 year-old men's player of all time. But I can't put my finger on it. If he stays healthy and his forehand and serve develop some more, maybe he could have had a comparable career to Courier (another Bollettieri product). Maybe that's too generous, but, again, I feel like I must be missing something.

With Medvedev, it just seems like he never had the right mentality (kind of the opposite of Krickstein in that regard). I get the feeling that things came to him really easily at 17-19 for him to reach the top 10 and win Masters Series events. But then, rather than push to try to take his game to the top level, he rested on his laurels and actually regressed.
 
That's all fair. Of course, I would say that Chang was on the short side and Hingis was on the slight side, with both eventually getting outgunned by bigger/stronger opponents. I think both Becker and Capriati had the talent to accomplish more, although they still did win 6 and 3 Majors, respectively.

I still can't quite get a bead on Krickstein's potential. There's nothing about his game that stands out to me other than a really good, but not, great forehand and his amazing five set record, even with all the injuries. I feel like there's still something we're all missing that made him probably the best 16 year-old men's player of all time. But I can't put my finger on it. If he stays healthy and his forehand and serve develop some more, maybe he could have had a comparable career to Courier (another Bollettieri product). Maybe that's too generous, but, again, I feel like I must be missing something.

With Medvedev, it just seems like he never had the right mentality (kind of the opposite of Krickstein in that regard). I get the feeling that things came to him really easily at 17-19 for him to reach the top 10 and win Masters Series events. But then, rather than push to try to take his game to the top level, he rested on his laurels and actually regressed.

I kind of agree with you on Krickstein, but I think having a career at Courier's level is a gigantic stretch for him, and nearly impossible. I can't see his forehand ever developing into the weapon Courier's was, which was the best forehand in the game for a few years, which is what it would have taken for that to even be a possability.

I agree on Medvedev, but I also never saw his potential being as much as others said at the time. I was very young then but already an avid tennis fan, and that is how I always felt.
 
Tying together Medvedev, Krickstein, and Pérez Roldán, here's a list of the players with the most titles as a teenager:

#1 Borg (17)​
#2 Nadal (16)​
#3 Wilander (13)​
#4 Becker (12)​
#5 Agassi (10)​
#6 Medvedev (8)
#7 Hewitt (7)​
#8T Edberg & Chang (6)​
#10T Connors, McEnroe, Noah, Arias, Pérez Roldán, Sampras, Roddick, Djokovic (5)​
#18T Krickstein, Carlsson, del Potro (4)​

So, Medvedev is only behind 5 ATGs, all with 6+ Majors.

Pérez Roldán and Arias join Medvedev as the only players with 5+ titles as a teenager who never won a Major.

Krickstein raced out to four titles from age 16-17.5 before injuries derailed his career, similar to both of the other players who won 4 titles as teens (albeit with their injuries coming when they were a bit older).
Alcaraz had 9, Rune had 4, and Sinner had 3 (excludes Next Gen Finals wins)
 
Back
Top