How would Fed beat Nad?

Feather

Legend
There are a lot of things he has to do. For sure he needs a near perfect day, but he'll just be swamped if he can't strike early in return games, so that's the sort of out of the ordinary element he needs to nail to set up the platform for him to then execute everything else other than serving like a tennis god which is in his control. I especially specified the BH because I'm assuming Nadal will go there most, but am speaking for the return in general - to be able to keep Nadal honest by finding the backhand frequently (though not predictably).
For sure!
 
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moonballs

Hall of Fame
What do you call the AO-2019-final-dal? There was one point Nadal’s racquet literally completely missed the ball in a routine swing. Fed doesn’t need an injured Nadal if Nadal plays super nervous and tentative like the AO, for whatever reasons. If Nadal nails a couple of big forehands early on I’d think the match is pretty much over.
 

JackGates

Legend
What do you call the AO-2019-final-dal? There was one point Nadal’s racquet literally completely missed the ball in a routine swing. Fed doesn’t need an injured Nadal if Nadal plays super nervous and tentative like the AO, for whatever reasons. If Nadal nails a couple of big forehands early on I’d think the match is pretty much over.
True. Nadal hasn't even broken Fed let alone won a set versus him in the last five matches? Surely that means quite a lot.
 

jga111

Hall of Fame
Fed needs to draw Nadal to the net and then out pass/lob him.

Quality of his approach shot needs to be excellent and of course his unforced error count needs to be low.

He can do it. Executing this strategy will see him win 10 times out of a 100. Will tomorrow be his lucky day?
 

Dolgopolov85

G.O.A.T.
Fed needs to draw Nadal to the net and then out pass/lob him.

Quality of his approach shot needs to be excellent and of course his unforced error count needs to be low.

He can do it. Executing this strategy will see him win 10 times out of a 100. Will tomorrow be his lucky day?
Hmmm, somehow think that is a risky strategy as Nadal is really good at devouring short balls. And he is a decent enough volleyer that he won't miss the straightforward ones either.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
As the old adage goes, "change a losing game." Sadly, Roger never got that memo with Rafa until 2017.

That's what Wilander did in 1988 in the USO final where Lendl was the prohibitive favorite: he changed a losing game. Mats shocked everyone by going full-on net rushing. Wilander came to net 133 times and won 72 points. He surprised and frustrated Lendl with daring tactics and won the final 6-4 in the fifth.

Roger can't surprise Nadal with that tactic, Rafa even said he's expecting it and will be ready. The only thing that might surprise Rafa is if Fed's BH holds up completely throughout the match (AO 2017 level). How can Fed realistically beat Nadal on PC?

1. 70%+ first serves
2. Attack the net judiciously and on good approach shots, varying the pattern of going to Nadal's BH
3. Not allow Rafa any rhythm, keep points short. UE's are OK if Roger's going for winners
4. Not squander BP's
5. Hope Rafa has an off day

Under those circumstances, Fed can win the match, but that's a lot of "ifs." I give him a 15% chance even if those variables aren't in play. Nadal has declined significantly from his clay peak as well, a fact hardly anyone mentions.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Fed needs to draw Nadal to the net and then out pass/lob him.
This tactic just doesn't work against Nadal unless the drop shot is literally perfect. Fognini pulled off a few of those in the MC semis this year. Nadal covers drop shots better than anyone and usually hits a drop shot winner in response. Fed can use the shot ROS occasionally, but he missed 3 of those against Stan yesterday. It's probably better to use the fake drop shot, which we haven't seen lately:

 
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icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
What do you call the AO-2019-final-dal? There was one point Nadal’s racquet literally completely missed the ball in a routine swing. Fed doesn’t need an injured Nadal if Nadal plays super nervous and tentative like the AO, for whatever reasons. If Nadal nails a couple of big forehands early on I’d think the match is pretty much over.
nadal and AO finals have some bad history though, he only won one AO, losing it think the final 4 other times. actually in general its his least successful slam while fo remains the most successful so idt he will be the tentative one. my fear is fed being tentative because no matter how much he says he will go in swinging freely, i get the feeling it will be the opposite.
 
D

Deleted member 763691

Guest
Given how long its been since Rafa beat Federer......I'd think Rafa will be extremely nervous in the 1st Set, so Federer has a good chance to win that because Rafa will probably make a lot of errors in the 1st Set.
Rafa is actually nervous in the 1st Set whenever he plays Federer, this rivalry brings out emotions :)
 

bjsnider

Hall of Fame
Federer's hold game should be fine. His serve is very hard to read, and Nadal will have a tough time breaking it down. The key to their rivalry has always been Nadal's ability to win a large number of free points hitting the same serves repeatedly -- wide to Federer's backhand. Federer has to come up and over the backhand hard, at sharp, oblique angles crosscourt and up the line. He has to use that shot to widen the baseline Nadal has to defend. Federer must dictate the points before Nadal can drag him into a long, wearying rally battle. Federer has to hit a lot of winners, more than against Stan or any other opponent. All of this needs to be executed almost perfectly.

The match rests on Federer's topspin backhand. If he flips the script on that shot, weaponizing it, he may flip the script on the clay rivalry.
 

Benjamin Rio

Professional
Given how long its been since Rafa beat Federer......I'd think Rafa will be extremely nervous in the 1st Set, so Federer has a good chance to win that because Rafa will probably make a lot of errors in the 1st Set.
Rafa is actually nervous in the 1st Set whenever he plays Federer, this rivalry brings out emotions :)
Don't agree. Often Nadal is outplayed in the first set because he is not as skilled with his shots. Nadal's main strength is his stamina fighting spirit and his ability to never give a free point to make his opponent earn it.
 

Grampa

Semi-Pro
Hit Humbalito hard on the head, presumably with the Wilson Pro Staff 90. Might be satisfying for Oldr and may trigger complete balding on RAFA. The downside is RAFA develops short term memory loss, plays freely and brutalises poor Pensioner.
 

jga111

Hall of Fame
This tactic just doesn't work against Nadal unless the drop shot is literally perfect. Fognini pulled off a few of those in the MC semis this year. Nadal covers drop shots better than anyone and usually hits a drop shot winner in response. Fed can use the shot ROS occasionally, but he missed 3 of those against Stan yesterday. It's probably better to use the fake drop shot, which we haven't seen lately:

I just don’t see how Fed can beat Nadal otherwise. He can’t do it from the baseline. Ok Maybe Fed can play to his BH but he’ll be too busy trying to prevent error on his own BH. His best chance is at the net. With him at it, and Nadal
 

JackGates

Legend
I just don’t see how Fed can beat Nadal otherwise. He can’t do it from the baseline. Ok Maybe Fed can play to his BH but he’ll be too busy trying to prevent error on his own BH. His best chance is at the net. With him at it, and Nadal
Ok, last time I checked Fed won last five matches versus him and he always outplayed him also from the baseline.
 

DSH

G.O.A.T.
On clay and at the best of 5 sets, the result is NID.
The rest are lucubrations and desires, the reality is that the Spaniard will defeat the Swiss with some ease.
 

Benjamin Rio

Professional
On clay and at the best of 5 sets, the result is NID.
The rest are lucubrations and desires, the reality is that the Spaniard will defeat the Swiss with some ease.
I can't see Fed winning on clay against Nadal.....In the case he would win (very unlikely) he would not beat Novak.
 

wangs78

Hall of Fame
He needs to serve really well and get free points. There won’t be that many aces on clay but if he can hit 3+ aces per set and force lots of weak returns then he can protect his serve. He will need to hit his backhand with authority, like in the AO 17 final. He won’t get as many outright winners like at the AO bc it’s clay but it will make defending his FH side easier if Rafa didn’t keep pushing him to the ad court by pounding his BH. At the end of the day he needs to play at least one amazingly good set (hopefully the first set) to set the tone and then play well enough for another two sets where some luck gets him the set win. Doable, but that amazingly good set needs to come early, in set 1 or set 2.
 

Benben245

Banned
What changed from the first to second set in 2006? Federer was pushing Nadal out wide every chance he got in the first set, and in the second he started to play more conservative tennis, hitting more neutral balls....Federer needs to go for broke and allow unforced errors to beat him, not Nadal winners
 

tennishabit

Hall of Fame
'gogo fedcow,
get a set off the bull'

pay nk the trip today 2 b the cheer leader in his box during the match. to yell out dat whenever permitted, ofc w/o chair-throwing. promise nk dat double the pay if he wins:love::love::love::love::love::love:.............................

comon fed, at least get a set from the clayking even coffin did dat:p:p:p:p:p:p...............................

can't wait to c the match man n hopefully no rain chk:-D:-D:-D:-D:-D:-D:-D.................
 
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Feather

Legend
He needs to serve really well and get free points. There won’t be that many aces on clay but if he can hit 3+ aces per set and force lots of weak returns then he can protect his serve. He will need to hit his backhand with authority, like in the AO 17 final. He won’t get as many outright winners like at the AO bc it’s clay but it will make defending his FH side easier if Rafa didn’t keep pushing him to the ad court by pounding his BH. At the end of the day he needs to play at least one amazingly good set (hopefully the first set) to set the tone and then play well enough for another two sets where some luck gets him the set win. Doable, but that amazingly good set needs to come early, in set 1 or set 2.
Roger Federer has to win first set to have any chance to win the match.
 

Lleytonstation

G.O.A.T.
First set will be huge, I think it is a must win for Fed. If he can get that then the maybe Nadal starts to panic. Doubt it, but it is possible, If anything, winning the first set will give Fed belief even if he were to go down two sets to one.
 

Feather

Legend
Given how long its been since Rafa beat Federer......I'd think Rafa will be extremely nervous in the 1st Set, so Federer has a good chance to win that because Rafa will probably make a lot of errors in the 1st Set.
Rafa is actually nervous in the 1st Set whenever he plays Federer, this rivalry brings out emotions :)
King of Clay nervous against Roger ? I don't think so. I think Rafa knows that he can beat Roger here, so I don't think he will be nervous at RG, that too PC which is his home!
Rafa is a very huge favorite, no mistake about it

That said, Roger's best chance is to take the first set. Come full blazing and attack, go for broke and trying to take the set.

I really think if David Goffin can win a set, Roger can also do the same
 
Federer can win. Nadal has slowed a lot in the last 12 months and has become increasingly mentally fragile in the big moments. Federer needs to serve well and come out swinging to plant those seeds of doubt. For once all the pressure is on Nadal. The crowd will be overwhelmingly pro Federer. I can't wait for this one.
 
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