Hunting down Forehands: What does it tell us?

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Can Lorenzo Sonego Hunt Down Enough Forehands? by Jeff Sackmann tackles this new stat presented during the 2024 Australian Open by looking at the Italian.

Your TV screen shows you some “Hunting 3rd Shot Forehand” numbers. Are they good?

The 3F% metric can be calculated from Match Charting Project data, so we have thousands of data points to draw upon. Based on men’s matches since 2014, the average 3F% is 64.7%. The middle third of player-matches falls between 59.3% and 70.9%. Take a little liberty with rounding, and we can say that “normal” is the range from 60% to 70%. Less than 60%, and you’re doing something wrong–or you’d rather hit your backhand, or your opponent had a day. More than 70%, and you were really getting things done in the plus-one department

So unsurprisingly most players try to follow up the serve with their stronger stroke which is almost always the forehand. What is the outcome?

Some valuable on-screen real estate–and an enormous amount of coaching time–would be wasted if 3F% didn’t correlate with points won. Fortunately for the conventional wisdom, it does: A plus-one forehand is more likely to lead to a point for the server than a plus-one backhand is.

57.5% of plus-one forehands eventually turn into a point won, compared to 50.9% of plus-one backhands. That’s a ratio of 1.13, a number that will be more useful as a reference point in a moment.

The value of a plus-one forehand depends on the player. Matteo Berrettini wins 58.5% of plus-one forehand points but only 44.6% of plus-one backhands. That’s a ratio of 1.31, one of the highest of any active player. For him, 3F% certainly matters: All else equal, more plus-one forehand points leads to better results overall.

I would encourage to read the whole article to try to understand what this all might mean.

 

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Sinner, the guy with the best backhand on the tour is hunting for and playing more with his forehand.

Why others shield their weak back by going inside out Jannik doesn’t need to protect it but still loves to go for his bigger weapon.

Is this the new tactical target for young talent?

 

[Bride of Alcaraz]

Jimmy Courier probably invented it and Raphael Nadal also very famous for it

 

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Jimmy Courier probably invented it and Raphael Nadal also very famous for it

Jimmy's 54.7% forehand bias made it famous, Rafa with 55.1% even more so, however Thomas Muster came before and had an incredible 62%. Hunting for forehand has long been a strong trend and much of it happens in the forecourt and from the middle.

Funnily the inside-out winner percentage is fairly low for this trio, with even Zverev scoring more! Shorter rally lengths explain part of it. Backhand dominator Sinner gets twice as many as good old Courier. Elite movement must explain some this difference and mighty Martin was sadly lacking it and thus also many IO winner.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2025-03-03

Player​ Matches​ FH Wnr%​ FH DTL Wnr%​ FH IO Wnr%​ BH Wnr%​ BH DTL Wnr%​ RallyAgg​ ReturnAgg​ Andrey Rublev​ 212​ 18.0%​ 22.2%​ 16.6%​ 6.5%​ 21.0%​ -20​ -17​ Jannik Sinner​ 217​ 13.9%​ 19.8%​ 16.0%​ 7.2%​ 26.1%​ -25​ -14​ Roger Federer​ 651​ 17.4%​ 23.1%​ 15.1%​ 9.2%​ 23.7%​ 12​ 27​ Juan Martin del Potro​ 152​ 15.8%​ 19.8%​ 11.9%​ 6.6%​ 25.4%​ -50​ -27​ Novak Djokovic​ 589​ 12.6%​ 15.5%​ 11.8%​ 7.3%​ 17.4%​ -48​ -33​ Pete Sampras​ 187​ 21.0%​ 28.0%​ 11.6%​ 10.4%​ 24.2%​ 51​ 83​ Alexander Zverev​ 295​ 11.0%​ 15.4%​ 9.6%​ 8.2%​ 25.1%​ -46​ -19​ Rafael Nadal​ 496​ 12.9%​ 18.8%​ 8.7%​ 7.6%​ 11.4%​ -67​ -57​ Jim Courier​ 51​ 14.8%​ 18.1%​ 7.9%​ 11.2%​ 28.4%​ -9​ -4​ Thomas Muster​ 35​ 8.7%​ 13.2%​ 6.0%​ 8.7%​ 9.8%​ -82​ -75​