Hypothetical matchup- Djokovic Rg 2020 vs Nadal Rg 2017.

[NatF]

I did use the 2nd one there. 2nd one is the original formula. since it is the aggressive margin (i.e aggressive shots - player UEs)
Both are equivalent this way.

take this:

1. winners+errors forced - player UEs

winners+errors forced + opponent UEs = points won
so
2. winners+errors forced = points won - opponent UEs

Substitute 2 in 1.

points won - opponent UEs - player UEs
= points won - combined UEs

I meant the first one sorry.

 

[Nadal_King]

The key to good hypotheticals is choosing matches where you can argue for both sides and it becomes an interesting debate. 2020 Djokovic doesn't stand a chance.

Here hypothetical is between 2 rafa's with Djokovic being a breaker between them

 

[abmk]

I meant the first one sorry.

got it. But the actual definition is the 2nd one. The first one can be derived from the 2nd one as I showed.

 

[NatF]

got it. But the actual definition is the 2nd one. The first one can be derived from the 2nd one as I showed.

I prefer the first one as it focused entirely on the points won via aggressive plays but sure.

 

[TearTheRoofOff]

6-(-1) 6-(-1) 6-(-1) for the impossible golden (bull) beatdown.

 

[Third Serve]

TA can be harsh but in my experience the official stats are often a bit kind.

I think that's especially true with Wimbledon but I think other Slam stats get a little bit closer.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Look at all the people acting like they are experts at analysing errors. Adjust bulk figures to your liking then assume it's a strong predictor. At least the much-maligned Waspsting posts fairly detailed analyses which everyone else is lazy to do while steadfastly believing they have superior innate understanding of the workings of tennis.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Yeah I think he was he beat down a much better opponent. It's somewhat hard to judge a match like the 17 final when it's abundantly clear that Stan really just had nothing left to give. That being said I think people undersell the 20 final for narrative reasons. Nadal fans do it to undermine 21 Fed fans do it to push age/weak era narratives and Djokovic fans do it to protect Novak and tear down Nadal. The truth is you can put that match up against pretty much any non 2008 Nadal match and make a strong case for it being better. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think he made 4 total unforced errors in the 1st two sets against a guy who was very good from the baseline while maintaining a higher level of aggression than he ever did in his prime. Nadal's plus one game in this match was totally ridiculous. He absolutely dominated one of the best returners and defenders ever on short points and it wasn't really due to a lack of quality on Novak's end. On Novak's serve losing short points was a lot to do with his inability to hit through Nadal which caused him to miss an abnormal amount of first ball forehands. The 3rd set was clearly Nadal's worst but it was still very good. I think Nadal's mediocrity in route to the final clouds what happened in the final. Nadal saved it up and poured it all out in a turn back the clock performance for the ages. Djokovic just didn't have the tools to beat him (and also got pretty unlucky with scoreline which makes him look worse than he was).

Edit: Due to the match dynamics I think 20 Djokovic probably does better against EVERY other Nadal 08 included in terms of scoreline though obviously he still likely loses comfortably in straights.

Sounds like propaganda.

 

[MichaelNadal]

You think Nadal was better in the 2020 final than the 2017 final? That's a hard sell. This is pretty much Nadal at the very best of his aggression and his movement was just that little bit better than 2020. Plus, I think Nadal definitely cooled off in the third set of 2020 (a trend we've begun to see in many of his recent Slam matches) which could have turned out nasty if Djokovic wasn't already in the deep hole he (and Nadal) had gotten himself into. Djokovic was a better opponent than Wawrinka, though that's not saying much, but 2017 Nadal didn't give an inch during the match.

The one hole you can poke in that performance is that he took some time to get going, but once he did, he didn't really look back. In contrast, I see 2020 Nadal delivering a masterful first two sets but showing signs of fading away in the third that a better opponent would probably have exploited.

That third set was indeed scary. He'd have honestly probably lost in 5 with his stamina issues now.

 

[RS]

Sounds like propaganda.

Why?

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Why?

Bunch of unobjective statements pointing in one direction. Crafting a narrative pretty much. Of course the point about other existing narratives is also true. The reality has to be in-between, away from any extreme take.

 

[RS]

Bunch of unobjective statements pointing in one direction. Crafting a narrative pretty much. Of course the point about other existing narratives is also true. The reality has to be in-between, away from any extreme take.

He explained his opinion though of course his takes are different to your average Federer fan on here.

 

[The Guru]

Sounds like propaganda.

Yeah you got me I love to build up Nadal's competition

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Yeah you got me I love to build up Nadal's competition

But you like to make-believe as if BOATov1c was better than he might have been.

 

[mike danny]

2020 Novak-Rafa RG was a higher level match than people remember. Novak hit more winners per game vs Nadal in a final than anyone else ever and that includes the 13 and 05 semis as well. He was positive in winner plus forced erros to unforced errors ratio. The narrative that Novak was awful is pretty much just untrue and is perpetuated by Novak fans to say Nadal couldn't beat Novak down like that unless he was awful. Nadal was just that good and the court was too slow for Novak. Novak did serve like **** but outside of that he wasn't nearly as bad as people make him out to be. I think this scoreline would be a lot more respectable than the 20 final was.

I mean, he was still awful no matter how you put it. Only 2 games in 2 sets combined is pitiful.

The overall gist of your post would apply if Novak had such a scoreline against 2008 or 2012 Nadal. But 2020 Nadal is not on that level. Especially as the conditions were also different in 2020.

 

[abmk]

I mean, he was still awful no matter how you put it. Only 2 games in 2 sets combined is pitiful.

the final W/UE stats on TA and official are close enough.

so for the first 2 sets, djoko had as per TA:

1st set: 9 winners, forced 7 errors, had 15 UEs.
2nd set: 14 winners, forced 7 errors, had 16 UEs

total points in set1: 51, in set 2: 59. so total points = 110

djoko's AM = (37-31)/110 = 6/110 = 5.4%

certainly not as bad as just getting just 2 games, but nowhere near good either.

 

[abmk]

I mean Nadal was certainly excellent in the 2020 RG final and maximized what he could at that age, including being really clutch, but 2017 final was a step above. after a slow start in 1st set, he was close to unplayable with aggression more than probably any RG match he's played and with few errors. I mean he was overwhelming a hitter like Wawa (granted Wawa was not that good, but he wasn't hitting badly per se). So don't see 2020 RG final Djokovic doing any better vs 2017 RG final Nadal.

 

[mike danny]

I mean Nadal was certainly excellent in the 2020 RG final and maximized what he could at that age, including being really clutch, but 2017 final was a step above. after a slow start in 1st set, he was close to unplayable with aggression more than probably any RG match he's played and with few errors. I mean he was overwhelming a hitter like Wawa (granted Wawa was not that good, but he wasn't hitting badly per se). So don't see 2020 RG final Djokovic doing any better vs 2017 RG final Nadal.

Yeah, 2017 RG was peak Oldal.

 

[Nadal_King]

This thread is a HIT, way it started didn't thought it would stretch this far

 

[NonP]

This would be an even worse slaughter than the actual '20 final. As I keep telling you jokers '17 was one of the Dirt King's top 3 outings ever, and apart from Borg it would take GOATing Guga, '93 (RG) Bruguera or perhaps '85/'86 Lendl (see below) and net-rushing Wilander to make that Nadal sweat.

In fact Djoker ain't beating any championship version of Rafa at RG. It's easy/tempting to hang your hat on Rome, Hamburg or Madrid, but there's a reason why Bull has gone undefeated at the Slam proper vs. Fedovic outside the lost/mediocre seasons of '15 and '21: even the freakiest of freaks in Nadal and Borg can't sustain full-on intensity for long, hence the former failing to match his GW% at RG even in his best CC seasons and the latter topping the truly rarefied 70% ceiling only twice ('78 and '80, per UTS), which still falls short of his even more superhuman FO #s.

It's no coincidence that Rafa's highest seasonal GW% came last year when he averaged 69.0% at Rome and RG - FYI the only OE dirtballers not named Borg or Nadal to crack a seasonal 65%* are '85 and '86 Lendl who posted 65.81% and 66.50% each (again per UTS) and '92 Courier who can flaunt his own 66.1% if you also take Rome and RG only and ignore Kitzbuhel and the Barcelona Os after Wimbledon - and while Bull did win a mighty 70.9% at '20 RG alone the fact that he wasn't able to build on his seasonal % like he did in '08 (67.8% vs. 75.7%), '17 (67.9% vs. 76.8%) or even '12 (68.2% vs. 71.0%) is strong indication that his career-high 69.0% had much to do with the shortened season.

TLDR: even the GOAT saves himself for the biggies. And on terre battue Rafa definitely has more extra gears than Novak to fall back on, indeed arguably more than anyone in history.

*Excluding '73 Nastase and '74 Laver who won 65.61% and 67.20% each per UTS vs. depleted/separated fields, and '89 Rosset whose 65.49% came at Bari and Geneva following RG.

 

[abmk]

This would be an even worse slaughter than the actual '20 final. As I keep telling you jokers '17 was one of the Dirt King's top 3 outings ever, and apart from Borg it would take GOATing Guga, '93 (RG) Bruguera or perhaps '85/'86 Lendl (see below) and net-rushing Wilander to make that Nadal sweat.

nah, not top 3, but top 5 and 5th IMO. 07,08,12 are clearly better. IMO, 10 is better as well. the final vs Sod was even better than vs Wawa considering Sod is a tougher opponent for nadal and had beaten him the year before. Sod was playing /hitting better than Wawa was. The kind of defense Nadal did vs Sod in RG 10 final, he couldn't vs Wawa. Of course he had the aggressive firepower vs Sod as well.

As far as 07 is concerned, are you really going to go by pure %s or numbers considering Nadal faced 6/7 capable opponents in RG 07 - even a young delpo, montanes, hewitt, moya, djokovic, fed.

Won 57.4% points and 66.3% games.

that's excellent vs the opposition he came up against in 07 RG.

in 17 - Thiem, Wawa and maybe Haase are the only capable opponents he faced and even then both Thiem/Wawa underperformed.

obviously Nadal's defence was even better in 07 than in 10 and he had the offensive firepower by 07.

Re: 17 vs 20, I agree, it'd be worse in terms of % of points won for djoko for sure, even if he somehow managed to get 6/7 games in the end.

I mean Nadal was certainly excellent in the 2020 RG final and maximized what he could at that age, including being really clutch, but 2017 final was a step above. after a slow start in 1st set, he was close to unplayable with aggression more than probably any RG match he's played and with few errors. I mean he was overwhelming a hitter like Wawa (granted Wawa was not that good, but he wasn't hitting badly per se). So don't see 2020 RG final Djokovic doing any better vs 2017 RG final Nadal.

 

[Bender]

2017 Nadal will beat 2020 Djokovic and Ivanisevic back to back