I am resigned to Rafa losing tomorrow

MichaelNadal said:
Don't make excuses ;)
Click to expand...

This is nothing. Have you seen that Bengte guy (the one who always whines about how "Nadal's draw will open up") post in every single thread, that "Rosol is injured and past his peak"? :lol:

That guy is the biggest Fed fangirl in here (although he disguises himself as a Djoko fan, by using his avatar) :twisted:


"RG 2014 will see a new Champion!" :lol:
 
LazyNinja19 said:
This is nothing. Have you seen that Bengte guy (the one who always whines about how "Nadal's draw will open up") post in every single thread, that "Rosol is injured and past his peak"? :lol:

That guy is the biggest Fed fangirl in here (although he disguises himself as a Djoko fan, by using his avatar) :twisted:


"RG 2014 will see a new Champion!" :lol:
Click to expand...

Sbengte, aka spaghetti? :)
 
Rosol is a tough match....you should not be resigned as the match is a tossup.

Nadal could go packing and today proved that it could happen again.
 
phnx90 said:
So how did that go?
Click to expand...

Won about 10 euros ( had too Rosol +2.5 sets: mama raised no fool, he he) ;)
(would have been a helluva day had Rosol won)

Congrats to Rafa, he's an escape magician.
For nearly 2 sets, he was blown off the court, then sucked the energy out of Rosol.
His serve was solid.
His returns were magnificient.

Federer just saw his chances of another W go in smoke...:twisted:
 
Just found this draws' analysis in other forum:
According to the guy who made it, he first considered just the grass points since wimbledon 12 in the same way as wimbledon seeding formula. And then, added the 50% of current ATP points.

Djokovic's quarter: 257.2 average grass points per player - 927.2 average points per player
Murray' quarter: 183.05 average grass points per player - 802.62 average points per player
Federer' quarter: 254.4 average grass points per player - 949.6 average points per player
Nadal's quarter: 149.9 average grass points - 739.8 average points per player

Just like in RG, Nadal's draw is a piece of cake. The easiest of the top 4.
 
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booson said:
Just found this draws' analysis in other forum:
According to the guy who made it, he first considered just the grass points since wimbledon 12 in the same way as wimbledon seeding formula. And then, added the 50% of current ATP points.

Djokovic's quarter: 257.2 average grass points per player - 927.2 average points per player
Murray' quarter: 183.05 average grass points per player - 802.62 average points per player
Federer' quarter: 254.4 average grass points per player - 949.6 average points per player
Nadal's quarter: 149.9 average grass points - 739.8 average points per player

Just like in RG, Nadal's draw is a piece of cake. The easiest of the top 4.
Click to expand...

Not surprising...Wimbledon trying to do everything to keep Nadal in second week.
 
Omega_7000 said:
Not surprising...Wimbledon trying to do everything to keep Nadal in second week.
Click to expand...

Then why was Rosol in Nadal draw? Even if Nadal makes it to the 2nd week he does not have a good conversion in Wimbledon finals.

I believe if Federer can play like he did in 2012....Nadal could lose.

I hope both Fedal meet in the SF.
 
booson said:
Just found this draws' analysis in other forum:
According to the guy who made it, he first considered just the grass points since wimbledon 12 in the same way as wimbledon seeding formula. And then, added the 50% of current ATP points.

Djokovic's quarter: 257.2 average grass points per player - 927.2 average points per player
Murray' quarter: 183.05 average grass points per player - 802.62 average points per player
Federer' quarter: 254.4 average grass points per player - 949.6 average points per player
Nadal's quarter: 149.9 average grass points - 739.8 average points per player

Just like in RG, Nadal's draw is a piece of cake. The easiest of the top 4.
Click to expand...

Huh. Now that is a really interesting way of determining draw difficulty. I wish I'd thought of that. The problem with averaging rankings is obviously that the multitudinous higher-ranked players that don't end up mattering skew the results. Even taking logs doesn't fully account for some of the complexities. Ranking points was kinda obvious come to think of it.

Anyway, it's utter rubbish, since the players in Nadal's opposite eight can easily skew the data. Likewise, it doesn't give extra weighting to the difficulty of the early round opponents he's got a higher chance of playing.
 
firepanda said:
Huh. Now that is a really interesting way of determining draw difficulty. I wish I'd thought of that. The problem with averaging rankings is obviously that the multitudinous higher-ranked players that don't end up mattering skew the results. Even taking logs doesn't fully account for some of the complexities. Ranking points was kinda obvious come to think of it.

Anyway, it's utter rubbish, since the players in Nadal's opposite eight can easily skew the data. Likewise, it doesn't give extra weighting to the difficulty of the early round opponents he's got a higher chance of playing.
Click to expand...
There was also the individual grass points count of every player considered but I decided to cut that out due to being too many numbers. Another point. every top seed was excluded, that is, Djokovic's, Nadal's, Murray's and Federer's points.

Let me look for that post again :lol:

Edit: I'll just paste it. The format doesn't help the view.

Djokovic's quarter:
Radek Stepanek 240 782.5
Gilles Simon 228.75 731.25
Robin Haase 56.25 488.75
Mikhail Youznhy 566.25 1461.25
Jimmy Wang 113.25 311.75
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 773.75 1661.25
Sam Querrey 217.5 595
Ernest Gulbis 148.75 1511.25
Sergiy Stakhovsky 133.25 438.25
Jeremy Chardy 202.5 710
Marinko Matosevic 138.5 552
Marin Cilic 318.75 993.75
Andreas Haider-Maurer 16 310.5
Bernard Tomic 255 570.5
Tomas Berdych 450 2790
Averages: 257.2333333 - 927.2

Murray's quarter:
Blaz Rola 12 310
Jan Hernych 109.5 192
Roberto Bautista Agut 340.75 1130.75
Kevin Anderson 142.5 1015
Edouard Roger Vasselin 82.5 525
Tim Puetz 0 95.5
Fabio Fognini 81.25 1158.75
Grigor Dimitrov 362.5 1660
Luke Saville 29.25 131.25
Benjamin Becker 311.5 703
Alexandr Dolgopolov 183.75 1023.75
Leonardo Mayer 67.5 459.5
Marcos Bagdhatis 230 487.5
Andrey Kuznetsov 110.25 369.75
David Ferrer 682.5 2777.5

Averages: 183.05 - 802.6166667

Federer's quarter:
Stan Wawrinka 223.75 2933.75
Yen-Hsun Lu 116.25 595.25
Julian Reister 76 343.5
Denis Istomin 305 797.5
Feliciano López 756.25 1483.75
Ante Pavic 20 192.5
Jarkko Nieminen 117.5 512.5
John Isner 431.25 1776.25
Jerzy Janowicz 806.25 1561.25
Lleyton Hewitt 437.5 912.5
Adrian Mannarino 249.25 581.25
Tommy Robredo 90 905
Marcel Granollers 17.5 642.5
Santiago Giraldo 86.25 645.25
Gilles Muller 83.75 361.25
Averages: 254.4333333 - 949.6

Nadal's quarter:
Milos Raonic 120 1742.5
Jack Sock 41 390
Lukasz Kubot 402 758.5
Dusan Lajovic 0 325
Philipp Kohlschreiber 403.75 1123.75
Simone Bolelli 36.25 258.75
Denis Kudla 133.75 347.75
Kei Nishikori 382.5 1727.5
Richard Gasquet 468.75 1676.25
Nick Kyrgios 95 295
Jiri Vesely 8 378.5
Gael Monfils 53.75 871.25
Frank Dancevic 8 280
Mikhail Kukushkin 11.25 404.75
Lukas Rosol 85 517.5
Averages: 149.9333333 - 739.8

After the 2nd round is over, perhaps the data gets updated.
 
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LazyNinja19 said:
This is nothing. Have you seen that Bengte guy (the one who always whines about how "Nadal's draw will open up") post in every single thread, that "Rosol is injured and past his peak"? :lol:

That guy is the biggest Fed fangirl in here (although he disguises himself as a Djoko fan, by using his avatar) :twisted:


"RG 2014 will see a new Champion!" :lol:
Click to expand...

That Bengte girl is a coward Fedfan who hides behind being a Djoker fan. Hypocrite at its worst. Give me Monfed anyday. Monfy is funny. Twisted but funny.....:twisted:
 
booson said:
There was also the individual grass points count of every player considered but I decided to cut that out due to being too many numbers. Another point. every top seed was excluded, that is, Djokovic's, Nadal's, Murray's and Federer's points.

Let me look for that post again :lol:

Edit: I'll just paste it. The format doesn't help the view.

*Snippity.*

After the 2nd round is over, perhaps the data gets updated.
Click to expand...

Thanks for that. Numbers make me happy. One of the things I've been planning on doing for ages is coming up with an empirical way of determining draw difficulties.
 
triforce defender said:
Even though I am the biggest Nadal fan on this forum, I am a realist and realize what a tough draw Rafa has. I predicted Klizan would beat him but Rafa proved me wrong to my delight by beating Klizan by the same scoreline as their FO match last year.

But Nadal still looked very vulnerable for much of the match so I know Rosol will beat him tomorrow. It's terrible but it is better that I skip to the acceptance stage of my grief now for his impending loss. I hope Rafa can recover and repeat last year's summer hard court success. Rosol will win 6-7, 6-4, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4.
Click to expand...

Not quite, but both Rosol and Klizan had their chances.
 
Averages per quarter after first round:
Djokovic:
257.2 average grass points per player
927.2 average points per player

Murray:
183.05 average grass points per player
802.62 average points per player

Federer:
254.4 average grass points per player
949.6 average points per player

Nadal:
149.9 average grass points per player
739.8 average points per player

Averages per quarter after second round (nearly) completion:
Nole:
307.53125 average grass points per player
1052.34375 average points per player

Murray:
162.5625 average grass points per player
890.9375 average points per player

Federer:
Since two matches are still to be completed, a range is provided:
From 293.125 to 347.8125 average grass points per player
From 1226.6 to 1308 average points per player

Nadal:
142.5 average grass points per player
760.375 average points per player

The trend continues. It varies a little between Djokovic and Federer but the strongest grass players (according to the formula) in their respective quarters are still alive. Their quarters are the hardest, while Murray's and Nadal's are still the easiest.
 
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Smasher08 said:
Not quite, but both Rosol and Klizan had their chances.
Click to expand...

Having chances against Nadal means zilch as long as you don't convert them.
Replace Rosol with Brands and interchange the round where Klizan was the opponent and you had the exact same situation in the first two rounds of RG13.
Brands won the first set handily and choked by missing sitters in the TB when he was about to go two sets up. Klizan faded away after winning a set. Nadal , who looked a little nervous until then, fed off those victories and went on to become a beast when the final stages came around. That very physical 5 setter against Djok was a testament to that.

I see the exact same pattern here. Nadal will go on to become an unbeatable beast in the next 10 days. I am surprised that people don't recognize these patterns even after seeing it so many times.
 
sbengte said:
Having chances against Nadal means zilch as long as you don't convert them.
Replace Rosol with Brands and interchange the round where Klizan was the opponent and you had the exact same situation in the first two rounds of RG13.
Brands won the first set handily and choked by missing sitters in the TB when he was about to go two sets up. Klizan faded away after winning a set. Nadal , who looked a little nervous until then, fed off those victories and went on to become a beast when the final stages came around. That very physical 5 setter against Djok was a testament to that.

I see the exact same pattern here. Nadal will go on to become an unbeatable beast in the next 10 days. I am surprised that people don't recognize these patterns even after seeing it so many times.
Click to expand...

I certainly hope so :) I love seeing him Juggernaut his way through slams.
 
sbengte said:
Having chances against Nadal means zilch as long as you don't convert them.
Replace Rosol with Brands and interchange the round where Klizan was the opponent and you had the exact same situation in the first two rounds of RG13.
Brands won the first set handily and choked by missing sitters in the TB when he was about to go two sets up. Klizan faded away after winning a set. Nadal , who looked a little nervous until then, fed off those victories and went on to become a beast when the final stages came around. That very physical 5 setter against Djok was a testament to that.

I see the exact same pattern here. Nadal will go on to become an unbeatable beast in the next 10 days. I am surprised that people don't recognize these patterns even after seeing it so many times.
Click to expand...

I don't remember whether Brands missed any sitters, but I do remember a brilliant passing shot by Rafa to win that set in the tie break :)

Anyway, may you be right :)
 
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