If Djokovic In 2011, Why Not Murray In 2016?

duaneeo

Legend
Djokovic's dominance of 2011 caught everyone by surprise. There was nothing to suggest it would happen. At the end of 2010, Roger and Nadal had ended the year as the top-2 ranked players for 6 consecutive years, had won 10 of the last 11 slams, and 21 of the last 24 slams. Djokovic had established himself a force in the game, having won a slam, the WTF, and multiple Masters titles. But he trailed Federer 6-13, and trailed Nadal 7-16 (and had never beaten him in a final). Having won 3 consecutive slams in 2010, it seemed almost a given that 2011 would be the year of Nadal.

So what happened? Djokovic has credited Serbia's 2010 Davis Cup win as the motivating factor.

Great Britain is in the 2015 Davis Cup final, and has an excellent chance of winning. I'm just saying. ;)
 

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
I doubt Murray is going on a 2011 Djokovic type run in 2016 if he wins the Davis Cup but I must admit I do like the thought! :D
It sure would be interesting! But given Djokovic's amazing year, something big will have to happen to him for Murray to completely dominate everything. Given their H2H I can't see it happening.
 

duaneeo

Legend
But given Djokovic's amazing year, something big will have to happen to him for Murray to completely dominate everything. Given their H2H I can't see it happening.
"But given Nadal's amazing year, something big will have to happen to him for Djokovic to completely dominate everything. Given their H2H I can't see it happening."

Wasn't this the general conception at the end of 2010?
 
Plus Murray left it too late to surge to the top, he missed his chance, people were saying who would replace Rafa and Roger at top between Novak and Andy. It was Novak!
 

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
"But given Nadal's amazing year, something big will have to happen to him for Djokovic to completely dominate everything. Given their H2H I can't see it happening."

Wasn't this the general conception at the end of 2010?
Well Murray will be 5 years older then Djokovic was in 2011. Nadal won 3/8 Masters he entered in 2010 while Djokovic won 5/7 he entered in 2011.
The H2H also shows us something.
Going into 2011, Djokovic v Nadal had a h2h of 16-7 BUT Djokovic had won 3 of their last 5 meetings
Going into 2016, Murray v Djokovic has a h2h of 19-9 BUT despite Murray's recent win, prior to that he lost 8 straight matches to him. I can not see a big turn around of this H2H. So unless some other player is consistenly knocking Djokovic out of slams and Masters, then no Murray won't have a great 2016.
So long as Djokovic is playing, Murray will be behind him
 

okdude1992

Hall of Fame
Yea nice thread. I was just thinking about this the other day!Likely more wishful thinking than anything else, for reasons others have outlined.

Djokovic took one of his biggest weaknesses and turned it into a strength (fitness). I doubt Murray will be able to make a change of a similar magnitude, unless he reworks the 2nd serve and/or forehand. However changing technique is harder than changing fitness, and the elite pros are way less likely to do it. Also Murray is a lot older than when Djokovic made his move... Best case scenario realistically in 2016 for Murray is to entrench himself into the #2 spot , and maybe beat Djokovic at 1 slam (probably Wimbledon).
 

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
True, but this is somewhat misleading. In 2009, Nadal won their first 4 match-ups (all on clay) and Djokovic won their last three (all on hard). But Nadal won both their meetings in 2010, and both were on hard (US Open and World Tour Finals--where Djokovic should have had the upper-hand). And again, Nole had never beaten Nadal in a final heading into 2011.

Replace "Murray" with "Djokovic" and "Djokovic" with "Nadal" in your comment, and you have what was said in 2010. Few see Murray dominating in 2016 ("Nole is too good"), but no one saw Djokovic dominating in 2011 ("Rafa is too good").
Nadal didn't have to face Federer at any slam in 2010. Didn't face Djoko at any slam except USO. Nadal only faced the top 4 seeds at a slam in 2010 twice (#4 Murray, Wimbledon. #3 Djokovic, US Open).
Compared to Djokovic who faced them 4 times in 2011 (#2 Federer at Aus Open, #1 Nadal Wimbledon, #2 Nadal #3 Federer at US Open) .
Djoko had tougher draws at his slams and still dominated and showed in 2010 that he was a threat. Murray hasn't really shown that he can threaten either Djokovic or Federer at slams so unless he gets good draws (like Nadal in 2010) where he doesn't have to face the top 2 seeds of Fed and Djoko then yeah, no dominance by him.
 

duaneeo

Legend
Nadal didn't have to face Federer at any slam in 2010. Didn't face Djoko at any slam except USO. Nadal only faced the top 4 seeds at a slam in 2010 twice (#4 Murray, Wimbledon. #3 Djokovic, US Open).
Compared to Djokovic who faced them 4 times in 2011 (#2 Federer at Aus Open, #1 Nadal Wimbledon, #2 Nadal #3 Federer at US Open).
You've gone way off topic.

My point is that though there is really nothing about Murray's 2015 season that suggests he will dominate in 2016, there was also nothing about Djokovic's 2010 season that suggested he would dominate in 2011. Who thought that a player who won just two titles, made just one slam final, and made it to zero Masters finals in 2010 would win 3 slams, 5 Masters, go 11-1 against Nadal and Federer, and be the YE#1 in 2011?? Be honest, did you?
 

Djokodal Fan

Hall of Fame
Murray is a great player and is very well capable of doing it. But I suppose Novak or Fed are not going to blink either. Slow court gives advantage to Murray in terms of fitness, but if he faces a well rested Novak in the semis or finals, it will be a dog fight.

Murray is very under appreciated here.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Murray has a shot. Not holding my breath on this, but strong end to 2015 might portend the Muzziah 2016. Beating Djoker head to head in Auz for title a must. Probably needs to regain 2 in world.
 

Midaso240

Hall of Fame
Given he has the least miles on his clock,I do expect Murray to be the last of the 'old big 4' to fall away from the top of the game,I think he will have a dominant stretch at some point when he is the last man standing...
 
N

Nathaniel_Near

Guest
Say Djokovic retired tomorrow and Murray peaked in 2016.. I still would think he'd win less than 3 Slams.
 
Come on mate, no need to say things like this. Murray is a great player in his own right and has beaten Novak to win both his slams as well as several Masters and the Olympics. He isn't a loser by any stretch of the imagination.
Not compared to most. Murray career is way better than most. However, compared to the big 3 he is. That's not an insult to Murray, it's just reality. He has had a great career but he will be a bit disappointed he not doing better at this stage in his career.
 

Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil

Talk Tennis Guru
Murray is still quite below Novak and even Federer now. Hard to expect someone to all of a sudden peak at 28 years of age, but he definitely can win another Slam or a bit more. I am giving him good chances at Wimbledon.
 

Doflamingo

Professional
You're forgetting another key ingredient, Murray would need to shave his head off. I think that was the biggest factor which gave Novak his 2011 success ;)



 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
Murray is a great player and is very well capable of doing it. But I suppose Novak or Fed are not going to blink either. Slow court gives advantage to Murray in terms of fitness, but if he faces a well rested Novak in the semis or finals, it will be a dog fight.

Murray is very under appreciated here.
So you've noticed this too? :cool:
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
His first serve is fine (he has served more aces then Djokovic this year and in his career). It's his 2nd serve that is vulnerable.
Yes, but it is the 2nd serve that loses matches for him, so the top players just wait for him to get scratchy on the 1st serve, then attack the 2nd.

Also, you have to admit that even his 1st serve is relatively weak for a guy his size. The guy is in his own way as much of an animal as Stan!

Year after year he is right up there with the best who have ever played the game in return stats. I've never seen a big man like him move faster.

It's the opposite of Fed. We know that sooner or later Fed's returns are going to let him down. For Murray, it is the opposite.

Also, aces are cancelled out be DFs.

I really dislike how the ATP has this set up:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/aces

There are things that are simply not there, like DFs. But if you check by year, surface, under individual player profiles, you'll see that Fed and Novak are about even this year on aces, but Novak DFs way more. That's why his percentage of service games won is not quite as high. He gives away more free points, so he has to work harder returning. But he has a better 2nd serve than Murray.

I think Murray is #1 level in the world much of the time except for his inability to hold serve.
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
Murray needed to hire Todd Martin last year, have him mess up his service motion and fire him by April, thus getting enough time for a rebound to lead GB to the DC and make the USO final. This marriage and impending fatherhood thing is also gonna get in the way.
 

syc23

Professional
Murray is still quite below Novak and even Federer now. Hard to expect someone to all of a sudden peak at 28 years of age, but he definitely can win another Slam or a bit more. I am giving him good chances at Wimbledon.
No one thought Federer would have a 2015 that he has had so you never know with Murray in 2016.
 

70後

Hall of Fame
I wouldn't be surprised. In effect the Big Four was an era of four number ones. FedNadDjokMurray. Murray's turn will come.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Murray has never been the player Novak was.

Ever.

He's had the some big wins against him in the past, but he's just too mentally frazzled out there nowadays. The constant thigh grabs, screaming obscenities at his box and all that negative energy should all be spent against his opponent on court. He's never been the same since Ivan split the scene.

I also think Murray is too heavy. He is overly muscled and it's not necessary playing tennis. Look at Fed and Nole's bodies in comparison.
 

sportsfan1

Hall of Fame
I used to think of Murray's game on even terms with Djokovic, and there's somewhere a statement from Federer when Djok and Murray were emerging that he thought Murray would have the better career. But going by the overall career results, you just have to say Djokovic has more weapons overall and is far tougher mentally. Better second serve, FH, redirecting the ball off the BH, and has troubled Fedal much more. That much disparity can't be without reason.
 

CYGS

Legend
Murray needs to bring Lendl back, or at least fire that former WTA player as his coach. She hurts more than she helps his career.
 
Not gonna happen
I can't believe it, but I'm going to have to agree!

Djokovic, Federer, Nishikori, Wawrinka, Rafa aren't about to sit back and let that happen.

Plus, Murray is 28. And don't say so is Djokovic because Murray is nowhere as good as Djokovic. He's good, but Djokovic is just something else entirely! The word hasn't even been invented.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
Oh C'mon, I have always liked Murray. Nice chap. I just troll some of you guys.

But I honestly think he's a great guy and has under achieved a lot. If he mentally checks in, I'm pretty sure he can go toe to toe with Djokovic.
Well, if he mentally checks in, we KNOW he can go toe to toe with Djokovic. It's the getting him to mentally check in on a more consistent basis that's been the tricky part! ;)
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
I think Murray is #1 level in the world much of the time except for his inability to hold serve.
You're absolutely spot on with this, Gary. I think we can count on the fingers of one hand how many times he gets through matches without losing serve at least once. It's probably the most irritating aspect of him as a player because, in many of those cases, it's not as if he was being outplayed by someone who was returning great! :mad:
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Whereas Murray is less talented, weaker mentally and a loser compared to Novak.
Yes, it's generally accepted that a world-famous athlete near the top of his chosen sport and worth a fortune is considered
"a loser." He's #3 in the world and will probably be #2 by the end of the year. He's won Wimbledon, that alone precludes him from being anything ever but a "winner."
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
You're absolutely spot on with this, Gary. I think we can count on the fingers of one hand how many times he gets through matches without losing serve at least once. It's probably the most irritating aspect of him as a player because, in many of those cases, it's not as if he was being outplayed by someone who was returning great! :mad:
So true!

Federer is at 88% for winning service games, for his career. That's right behind Sampras, and both of them are behind Karlovic, Isner, Raonic and Roddick.

Murray is at 82, which is a huge difference. Even worse: Ferrer.

These two guys would have a nice collections of slams if they had better serves. Ferrer is all the way down at 78.
 
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