If Djokovic loses in straight sets to a qualifier on his best surface how can he have been a lock to win a slam?

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Slams are very, very different from ATP 500s as we’ve no doubt observed from Novak for three years running. What he may bring to a Bo3 event is not necessarily what he might bring to a Bo5 event. In some ways this actually reminds me of Fed losing to Donskoy after winning the AO.

That’s why making these sweeping statements about form based solely on these relatively unimportant matches is pretty shallow analysis. Obviously the same goes for the easily excitable folks in the Khachanov thread talking about Novak “returning to his 2011 forehand”.
 
Anyone know when Djokovic plays next?
The story was that he didn't need a lot of play to win an event. But I am wondering how he's going to do at RG if he can't play much.
 
Kralingen said:
No lie, Vesely was playing like prime Ivanisevic today.

Obviously it is a hypothetical either way. I do know that Nadal can't take the racket out of Djoko's hands like Vesely could on serve, so it would be a very different match in that hypothetical SF.
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I think the larger point is that no one knows how 1 match much less 6 or 7 would have played out for Djokovic at the AO especially given his 'unique' preparation for the 2022 AO and the fact that he had 'covid'
 
intrepidish said:
I think the larger point is that no one knows how 1 match much less 6 or 7 would have played out for Djokovic at the AO especially given his 'unique' preparation for the 2022 AO and the fact that he had 'covid'
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I made the same point as well. Don't think Djokovic would have had the legs or the form given the extended Park Hotel stay and what would surely be a horrendously partisan crowd.

I guess the hypothetical is a COVID-free no restrictions Open, but yeah I don't see it as the situation unfolded.

On the other hand, a loss to a big server in Bo3 is not really going to change that Novak has won 3 consecutive AOs.
 
ND-13 said:
Vesely played very well.

Nothing can change the fact Nadal cannot win a single set in HC after 2013.

VamosBrigade is resorting to new lows
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Nothing change the fact that Fed was Nadal's bunny for a decade in slams . As far as Djokovic is concerned they met only once at AO after 2013 , noone cares about bo3 . He still leads 2-1 at USO unlike your hero Fed was is 1-3 at his best second slam .
 
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Remember when Novak lost in a 250 QF and then played in 13 out of 14 big finals that year? Tennis gods like to do a little trolling from time to time.
 
N01E said:
Remember when Novak lost in a 250 QF and then played in 13 out of 14 big finals that year? Tennis gods like to do a little trolling from time to time.
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Real trolling is Novak getting finsihed after winning 3 slams a year to zero .
 
onefineday said:
Anyone know when Djokovic plays next?
The story was that he didn't need a lot of play to win an event. But I am wondering how he's going to do at RG if he can't play much.
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I think there are two separate 250s on clay in Serbia leading up to RG, so he at least has those. He will likely be able to play anywhere within a couple months though.
 
NeutralFan said:
Real trolling is Novak getting finsihed after winning 3 slams a year to zero .
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I wouldn't dream of analyzing the entire career of a player like Djokovic. My modest question is:

How can a man who lost in straight sets on his best surface to a qualifier have been said to be a lock in 7 matches, especially since we all know Djokovic was returning from a case of covid and had dramatically changed his routine as well?
 
I don't think he was a lock either. I do think he was an almost lock to beat Nadal if they met. I don't think he was a lock against the rest of the draw though, both Medvedev in the hypothetical final, or the rounds before the semis to Nadal. He is too vurnerable all around at this point, to be a lock anywhere, even Australia. He did lose his last 3 major events before Australia. I still would have given him a 50-60% likelihood if he played mind you. One thing to keep in mind btw is old, way past his prime Nadal seems to be a tougher match up for Medvedev than old, past his prime Djokovic is for some reason, and it is fairly clear.
 
intrepidish said:
If Djokovic loses in straight sets to a qualifier on his best surface how can he have been a lock to win a slam?

Please explain....
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It is a matchup issue...every player has a weakness, but when you have a matchup problem it means that you can't take advantage of that weakness.
 
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Aabye5 said:
It a matchup issue...every player has a weakness, but when you have a matchup problem it means that you can't take advantage of that weakness.
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I'm not sure that I follow...

The fact that Djokovic lost to a qualifier in straight sets in a tournament where he presumably slept in a proper hotel and had plenty of solid preparation for the tournament establishes that he was a lock to win 7 matches when he was just coming back from covid and sleeping in a detention center?
 
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