I think the results are odd, because we know the history between these two players and both their current form. And Federer's past results in winning the US Open can be thrown out the window, if he's opposite Nadal in the final. Fed had won the Australian Open 3 times before he first faced Nadal in the final there. Nadal had never even made the final, and we all know how that result ended.
Bottom line, if Nadal makes the final, and Federer is on the opposite side of the net, common sense should suggest that with all we know about these guys, Nadal is going to win.