If Federer wins Montreal (seems very likely now), he'll be the provisional number 1 on Monday.

Aussie Darcy

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
Nadal just blew his chance against a Canadian WC. (seriously, all he had to do was beat Shapovalov and Mannarino to be #1 and he blew it... anyway)

Come Monday, the points from 2016 Cincy will come off in the live rankings so Murray will lose his 600 finalist points and Nadal will drop 90 points from his 3R Cincy performance last year.
Meanwhile, Fed won't lose any points as he didn't play post Wimbledon 2016.

So, assuming Fed wins Montreal (seems likely, he just needs to beat RBA, Schwartzman/Haase and then any of Shapovalov/Mannarino/Zverev/Anderson to become #1).

So, looks like we are likely to have Roger Federer back at #1 for the first time since October 2012
 
FedFanBoy said:
No. 1 isn't that important. If he wins Montreal and then plays Cinci...no way he wins the US open.
Click to expand...
I'm thinking about the same. He had mentioned even before Wimbledon that he'll play near full schedule in the second half, I believe he understands his limits.
 
Not if he continues playing like he did against Ferrer.
(winning Montreal, I mean).
He played like he didn't care whether he won or lost in Montreal, but he seemed really annoyed with himself when he lost points he should've not squandered.
There were times I thought he was playing like a guy who wanted the cake and eat it too, but got frustrated when he found he can't.
If he played like that v. the onfire Shapovalov instead of Ferrer, I doubt we'll be having this conversation....

These young uns must've been fired up after his "all them kids are pants" comments at the Wimbledon presser.
They're out to prove something. Which is good for the sport, if going by the previous posts on this board clamoring for the young ones to step up.
 
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Aussie Darcy said:
Nadal just blew his chance against a Canadian WC. (seriously, all he had to do was beat Shapovalov and Mannarino to be #1 and he blew it... anyway)

Come Monday, the points from 2016 Cincy will come off in the live rankings so Murray will lose his 600 finalist points and Nadal will drop 90 points from his 3R Cincy performance last year.
Meanwhile, Fed won't lose any points as he didn't play post Wimbledon 2016.

So, assuming Fed wins Montreal (seems likely, he just needs to beat RBA, Schwartzman/Haase and then any of Shapovalov/Mannarino/Zverev/Anderson to become #1).

So, looks like we are likely to have Roger Federer back at #1 for the first time since October 2012
Click to expand...

Unfortunately that's not the case. In last year, Murray got the points on 15-August which falls in Tuesday this year. So his points won't drop till August-21.
What that means:
At next week
Murray remains at 7750 ATP ranking points and holds on to #1
Federer goes to 7545 points (if he wins)
Nadal adds 90 points and goes to 7555 points

See below for the drop date of Andy's Cincy points
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/andy-murray/mc10/rankings-breakdown?team=singles
 
roysid said:
Unfortunately that's not the case. In last year, Murray got the points on 15-August which falls in Tuesday this year. So his points won't drop till August-21.
What that means:
At next week
Murray remains at 7750 ATP ranking points and holds on to #1
Federer goes to 7545 points (if he wins)
Nadal adds 90 points and goes to 7555 points

See below for the drop date of Andy's Cincy points
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/andy-murray/mc10/rankings-breakdown?team=singles
Click to expand...
He said live rankings. Jesus.
 
Murray will be #1 week of August 14.

If e.g. Nadal wins Cincy, he will be #1 on August 21, no matter what Fed does.

If Fed does win Montreal, then he will "provisional number 1" in the sense that he will enter the live rankings with more points, but he will be an actual #1 on August 21 if and only if he gains at least as many points as Rafa in Cincy.
 
FedFanBoy said:
No. 1 isn't that important. If he wins Montreal and then plays Cinci...no way he wins the US open.
Click to expand...

Why are you treating one of the best athletes in the world like a senior? There are ten days between Cincy and Us Open + the fact if they even if they dont play competitive matches, players still have insane workouts/practice sets and push themselfs hard. Not to mention that he had 2 big breaks in the last 12 months.
 
If Fed wins Montreal it becomes a Cinci shoot-out, the one between Rafa and Rog who goes furthest enters USO as number 1. Rafa will have to make up 80 points so also needs to atleast make the QF for that difference to be possible.
 
Federer just had an abysmal match vs Ferrer and yet you say it basically a given for him to win Montreal? I don't think so, not at all. I could see him easily losing to RBA or anybode else left in the tournament.
 
Chicharito said:
If Fed doesn't get it back before US Open then he may never be #1 again.
Click to expand...
Tbh his chances only improve as the year goes on. His only competition is Nadal, whose wheels should come off once we reach the indoor tournaments (if they haven't already).
The US Open will be crucial. If Fed gets a large points lead over Nadal there then the YE #1 is basically his unless Nadal pulls off an unprecedented indoor season.
 
kOaMaster said:
Federer just had an abysmal match vs Ferrer and yet you say it basically a given for him to win Montreal? I don't think so, not at all. I could see him easily losing to RBA or anybode else left in the tournament.
Click to expand...
He always has his bad match. He'll come good.
 
NastyWinners said:
Can't expect a young-ster to be that acclimated to grass against the greatest grass court player ever.

Hardcourts are more comfortable for young Zverev so it would not be a cake-walk if they do meet in the finals.
Click to expand...
Erm, Zverev beat him at Halle last year when he was 1 year younger.
 
Enigma_87 said:
Erm, Zverev beat him at Halle last year when he was 1 year younger.
Click to expand...

Which proves my point. Hell, even Thiem beat Roger on grass last year.

Regardless, more often than not RF will beat Zverev on the grass because of the way they play. Hardcourts even out their games a bit more.
 
kOaMaster said:
Federer just had an abysmal match vs Ferrer and yet you say it basically a given for him to win Montreal? I don't think so, not at all. I could see him easily losing to RBA or anybode else left in the tournament.
Click to expand...

LOL, you have no clue what you are talking about. Ferrer played great and was top 5 two years ago.

Fed played badly, yes, and still got through a guy playing at his best level from 3 years ago.

Not to bad. Everyone has bad days. Batista Agut is not playing as well as Ferrer and does not return as well as Ferrer.

Zerev will have his hands full with Anderson.
 
roysid said:
Unfortunately that's not the case. In last year, Murray got the points on 15-August which falls in Tuesday this year. So his points won't drop till August-21.
What that means:
At next week
Murray remains at 7750 ATP ranking points and holds on to #1
Federer goes to 7545 points (if he wins)
Nadal adds 90 points and goes to 7555 points

See below for the drop date of Andy's Cincy points
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/andy-murray/mc10/rankings-breakdown?team=singles
Click to expand...
mightyjeditribble said:
Murray will be #1 week of August 14.

If e.g. Nadal wins Cincy, he will be #1 on August 21, no matter what Fed does.

If Fed does win Montreal, then he will "provisional number 1" in the sense that he will enter the live rankings with more points, but he will be an actual #1 on August 21 if and only if he gains at least as many points as Rafa in Cincy.
Click to expand...


I said live rankings. So this Monday the 14th it'll have Fed #1 in the live rankings (if he wins). The actual rankings the following monday night on the 21st might not have Fed #1 (say if he loses 2R Cincy and Nadal wins it) but thats not what my original post said anyway.

roysid said:
He said this...
So, looks like we are likely to have Roger Federer back at #1 for the first time since October 2012
Click to expand...
Well it does seem likely.. considering Fed hasn't lost a match since like Stuttgart? Meanwhile Nadal lost to a WC... Any smart person would probably think Fed would go further in Cincy than Nadal based on form...
 
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NastyWinners said:
Can't expect a young-ster to be that acclimated to grass against the greatest grass court player ever.

Hardcourts are more comfortable for young Zverev so it would not be a cake-walk if they do meet in the finals.
Click to expand...

I know it likely won't. I also know that that poster is only saying that because not so deep down he only wants Federer to lose. He doesn't really care if he ends up being right or wrong.
 
roysid said:
The site you mentioned shows Nadal has already 7555 points. Matches with my calculation
Click to expand...

Pouet156 said:
Are you sure ? Here it says that Nadal will have 7465 on Monday, and Roger will have 7455 if he wins : http://live-tennis.eu/fr/projection-5-semaines-atp
but he will take the lead in the race
Click to expand...
Nadal is currently on 7555 points on the live ranking
Fed is currently on 6725 points on the live ranking but if he wins Montreal he'll be on 7545 points.
Next week in the live rankings, Nadal should lose 90 points from Cincy last year having him drop to 7465 whilst Fed remains on 7545 (no points to defend) and therefore would be #1?

Not sure why Nadal's Cincy points wouldn't come off. Cincy was played the week of August 15 last year and is being played the week of August 14 this year so the points will come off the live rankings on Monday which would show Fed as #1 (provisionally of course)

Therefore I believe the site is wrong unless there's something I'm missing?? Even if it was some weird instance where Nadal's non countable points from Brisbane come into play, that's still only 45 points which wouldn't push him in front of Fed.

Only way Nadal is number 1 provisionally Monday (and assuming Fed does win Montreal) is if his Cincy points don't come off. And I don't see how that could happen.
 
talking of live rankings..shapo was exactly 100 rank just after beating rafa. (possible change since due to site update with Columbia challenger results)
 
Firstservingman said:
Tbh his chances only improve as the year goes on. His only competition is Nadal, whose wheels should come off once we reach the indoor tournaments (if they haven't already).
The US Open will be crucial. If Fed gets a large points lead over Nadal there then the YE #1 is basically his unless Nadal pulls off an unprecedented indoor season.
Click to expand...

agree. Just pointing out that Nadal could win the US Open and Fed go out in QFs. Suddenly Nadal has a 1500 point lead, that will be tough to overturn.

It's no guarantee Fed will get back to #1 even though he is so close and with cards stacked in his favour. I'm hoping he gets it asap. Then we can worry about YE #1. If he has it after US Open, he will be big fav as you said.
 
Aussie Darcy said:
Nadal just blew his chance against a Canadian WC. (seriously, all he had to do was beat Shapovalov and Mannarino to be #1 and he blew it... anyway)

Come Monday, the points from 2016 Cincy will come off in the live rankings so Murray will lose his 600 finalist points and Nadal will drop 90 points from his 3R Cincy performance last year.
Meanwhile, Fed won't lose any points as he didn't play post Wimbledon 2016.

So, assuming Fed wins Montreal (seems likely, he just needs to beat RBA, Schwartzman/Haase and then any of Shapovalov/Mannarino/Zverev/Anderson to become #1).

So, looks like we are likely to have Roger Federer back at #1 for the first time since October 2012
Click to expand...

On paper, Fed's draw to the final looks like a gentle stroll: he and Zverev are the only remaining seeds, so a Sunday tilt with Sacha would appear to be the likeliest scenario.

Imo the only way that doesn't occur is if Fred decides to keep rallies in his next few matches extremely short and UEs his way to the airport, or if Z's inexperience gets the better of him.

On paper, a Fred win in Montreal looks like a real possibility.
 
VaporDude95 said:
Fed played Stuttgart then Halle and won Wimbledon.

There's 8 days break from cinci to the US. And I think if Fed wins Montreal, he'll tank cinci.
Click to expand...

Because of the fast courts at The Real Slam, matches will be quick and therefore comparatively not that taxing. It's also a surface that really favours Fred.

Interestingly, almost all the rest of the top 15 will go into that tournament very fresh, so I'm curious to see how they all progress there. They could all give each other fits and starts, and be a little tired going into Flushing.

I think Fed's progress (and strategy concerning how long/short he'll let rallies last) will hinge on how the seeds fare. Right now in Montreal, he looks on paper to have a gentle stroll to the final. Who know whether Cincy will be similar or diametrically different!
 
opiate said:
Not if he continues playing like he did against Ferrer.
(winning Montreal, I mean).
He played like he didn't care whether he won or lost in Montreal, but he seemed really annoyed with himself when he lost points he should've not squandered.
There were times I thought he was playing like a guy who wanted the cake and eat it too, but got frustrated when he found he can't.
If he played like that v. the onfire Shapovalov instead of Ferrer, I doubt we'll be having this conversation....

These young uns must've been fired up after his "all them kids are pants" comments at the Wimbledon presser.
They're out to prove something. Which is good for the sport, if going by the previous posts on this board clamoring for the young ones to step up.
Click to expand...
All he said post Wimbledon was that too many players don't volley or play an all court game. .If he was having a go at anyone it was at coaches who only teach the Djokovic type game.
He was very rusty against Ferrer, but that's the first real match he played since Wimb. He couldn't get his 'new' backhand going. How was he trying to 'have his cake and eat it'? You mean he wanted to play badly and win? I guess he wanted to win but I doubt he wanted to play badly - he got pretty frustrated with himself.
It's by no means assured he'll win Montreal
More likely to win Cincy I'd have thought. One of his favourites.
 
nochweiterroger said:
All he said post Wimbledon was that too many players don't volley or play an all court game. .If he was having a go at anyone it was at coaches who only teach the Djokovic type game.
He was very rusty against Ferrer, but that's the first real match he played since Wimb. He couldn't get his 'new' backhand going. How was he trying to 'have his cake and eat it'? You mean he wanted to play badly and win? I guess he wanted to win but I doubt he wanted to play badly - he got pretty frustrated with himself.
It's by no means assured he'll win Montreal
More likely to win Cincy I'd have thought. One of his favourites.
Click to expand...


It's not that he wanted to play badly, just that he wanted to "take it easy" but taking it easy proved to be not so easy and he got frustrated about it. I did say that he got frustrated. He, like most of us here, thought that his draw must've looked cakewalk on paper and that he could basically sleepwalk or bored-walk through it.

He went to a concert, rather than sleep (he has been on record saying that if he has a match, the night before he would even send his kids away so he can get a full night sleep). He didn't even bother to shave (okay minor quibble).

It's like he expected this to be meh, but then got mad when it's not meh.

It's like a kid "ah tomorrow's exam is easy, lemme just party rather than study" and then threw a tantrum when the exam turned out to be not so easy after all.

Or "ah I don't care if I become top of the class" but got frustrated when he realized it might turn out he genuinely might not be! (Because of losing early)

Let's see if he continues to be lackadaisical about his next matches. He comes across like he doesn't care but care a lot. An enigma this guy.
 
opiate said:
It's not that he wanted to play badly, just that he wanted to "take it easy" but taking it easy proved to be not so easy and he got frustrated about it. I did say that he got frustrated. He, like most of us here, thought that his draw must've looked cakewalk on paper and that he could basically sleepwalk or bored-walk through it.

He went to a concert, rather than sleep (he has been on record saying that if he has a match, the night before he would even send his kids away so he can get a full night sleep). He didn't even bother to shave (okay minor quibble).

It's like he expected this to be meh, but then got mad when it's not meh.

It's like a kid "ah tomorrow's exam is easy, lemme just party rather than study" and then threw a tantrum when the exam turned out to be not so easy after all.

Or "ah I don't care if I become top of the class" but got frustrated when he realized it might turn out he genuinely might not be! (Because of losing early)

Let's see if he continues to be lackadaisical about his next matches. He comes across like he doesn't care but care a lot. An enigma this guy.
Click to expand...

You seems to have insights into Roger Federer's inner private thoughts that the rest of us don't. I thought his earlier interview was quite naughty, pretending to be like he's a new boy, an outsider and also going on and on about how wonderful Nadal is and how he (Nadal) is about to be No 1. I thought that was all very tongue in cheek and quite acid while being all 'nice' on the surface. Personally I'm amused by the underlying bitchy streak. He may have wanted to make it look like he's very laid back about how far in the tournament he goes, but in a strange way there's more and more pressure on him now to never lose any match and I should have thought it's likely he feels that pressure. But I don't know as I don't have access to his thoughts and feelings, let alone his unconscious.
 
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