If Leicester City did win the Premier League, would it be the biggest upset in the history of sport?

[Chicharito]

If Leicester City did win the Premier League, would it be the biggest upset/miracle/fairy tale in the history of sport?

For those who don't follow football, they probably won't be able to grasp the enormity of what this would be.

After last Saturday the journey may be at its peak, the wheels could come off at any time, so best discussing the issue while we can.

In today's age when football is so dominated by money, upsetting the odds is very difficult. Over the course of 38 games and 9 months to top the table would be mind blowing. This isn't a knock out cup competition.

If we look at things like Denmark Euro 92, we realize it was a huge shock but not in the same stratosphere as this. Greece Euro 2004. Atletico Madrid 2014. Nottingham Forest in the 70's is talked about in a similar vein, but in today's game the influence of money makes it 10x harder.


It isn't even that they where last this time last year, any one of 10 or more PL teams winning it would be a preposterous turn of events. It just adds a little extra to the story.

Some brief context for those who aren't following.

For some context 10/12 Guardian writers predicted them to go down.( bottom 18-20th) They probably won't win it, but they longer they stay there the more likely they are to get top 4 and champions league (top 3 for automatic) which once again would be a brilliant achievement.

The individual stories too, Vardy playing non league (tier 5 of English football) 5 years ago. Heck, Ranieri was only available after he got sacked 4 games into Euro 2016 qualifying by Greece, with a loss to the Faroe Islands being the killer.

The fact they are even in the Premier league this year is crazy, that escape last year was a Houdini act, what was it, 9 wins in the last 11 games?

After 25 games last season, Leicester City was last, with 17 pts. After 25 games this season, Leicester City is in first, with 53 pts.

SI

As Leicester City pulled five points clear at the top of the Premier League at the weekend, it was widely remarked that a year ago at this time, it was situated at the bottom of the table. It’s a line that’s likely to be repeated quite a bit: Leicester didn’t move off the bottom of the Premier League until April 18. It’s impossible to express just how implausible its form since then is: 12 points clear of fifth with 13 games to go, it would take a spectacular implosion for Leicester not to qualify for the Champions League.

Nobody’s even talking about that, but even if Leicester does stutter and fail to win the title, to qualify for the Champions League (top 4 finish) would still be a staggering achievement. Since Leeds United’s demise in 2002, the top four has tended to be self-perpetuating elite. Since 2010-11, Manchester City has replaced Liverpool (which edged out Manchester United in 2013-14), but other than that, the only variations in the last 12 seasons have been Everton (once) and Tottenham (twice). Clubs with far bigger budgets than Leicester have tried and failed to break the top 4 glass ceiling.

But the best thing is that this isn’t about money. It isn’t about a sugar daddy turning up and spending vast sums to succeed. This isn’t even about the increasing wealth of the Premier League’s middle-class. Leicester’s budget is modest. The squad cost around £60 million to assemble. The side that beat Manchester City 3-1 on Saturday cost about a tenth of its opponen

But the events of the summer look ridiculous when written down: a manager, whose capacity to contain his inner rage was already in doubt after he asked a reporter if he were an ostrich, was sacked after his son racially abused a Thai prostitute during an orgy. He was replaced by a coach whose last job, in charge of Greece, had ended following a defeat to the Faroe Islands. Good luck repeating that recipe for success.

All a huge 'if'. A long, long way to go.

 

[r2473]

If Federer beats Nadal (especially at Roland Garros), that would be the biggest upset/miracle/fairy tale in the history of sport.

 

[Chicharito]

If Federer beats Nadal (especially at Roland Garros), that would be the biggest upset/miracle/fairy tale in the history of sport.

I know, what are the odds of Nadal making the QFs? Would be an enormous shock.

 

[Midaso240]

Yeah,it would have to be up there,it would trump a lot of those 'one off' upsets because LC have had to show sustained excellence over an entire season

 

[Poisoned Slice]

It will certainly be in the top tier considering all the things mentioned in the first post. I want to be optimistic for them. United are out of the race, so the football fan in me is hoping for a sporting miracle.

Come on Leicester.

 

[Algo]

I definitely would NOT be upset.

But it'd be.

 

[MatsPhilander]

 

[augustobt]

It would depend on your concept of upset. Leicester has quite a good team with Mahrez playing great and Vardy clearly playing out of his abilities thus, they're leading mostly because of Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea's incapacity (and Liverpool ridiculous defense side). I'd say it's a big surprise, but nothing compares to the 2004, specially for football:

- Once Caldas defeating São Paulo (with a goal in the 90th minute of the return leg) and Boca Juniors (in a penalty shootout, right in La Bobonera) back to back to win the Copa Libertadores da America;
- Latvia qualified into the UEFA Euro 2004 after knocking Turkey (3rd place in the last world cup) out in the playoffs;
- Greece winning the Euro knocking Czech Republic (best team of the competition so far) on the semi-finals with the Silver Goal. Defeated Portugal (home team) in the Final;
- Deportivo La Coruña knocking Milan out in the quarters of the Champions League (first Match was 4-1 Milan);
- The Champions League final by itself: Monaco vs Porto.

so... no, it won't be the biggest upset in the history of the sport.

 

[Chicharito]

Wage Bills decide success in modern football. In cup competitions anything can happen, but 38 games.

The following table shows the utter absurdity of what is happening. Of course they do have very good players, they recruited very well. If Spurs (6th in wages and double Leicester) win the league it will be the biggest shock in Premier League history.

1Chelsea £215.6m
2Manchester United £203 m
3 Manchester City £193.8m
4 Arsenal £192m
5 Liverpool £152m
6 Tottenham £110.5m
7 Newcastle United £75.8m
8 Everton £74.7m
9 Stoke City £72.3m
10 Sunderland £71m
11 West Ham United £69.5m
12 Aston Villa £65.1m
13 West Bromwich £68.5m
14 Southampton £59.5m
15 Swansea City £51m
16 Crystal Palace £54.3m
17 Leicester City £48.2m
18 Norwich City £37m
19 Watford £29m
20 Bournemouth £25m


Yes it is a ludicrous season. A bit like La Liga 99/00

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&r...nGUxtCVWmNL-523SBUqzpA&bvm=bv.114195076,d.bGs


Of course the Leicester story took a major blow today. Arsenal's last minute goal means their gap is 2 points instead of 5.

But in 2 weeks things resume and we will see where it goes.

 

[West Coast Ace]

I usually like to credit the underdogs - but have to agree w @augustobt that top teams' poor play has much to do with it. And I'd add - injuries - both ARS and MC have had key players out. Makes one think they're are too many made for TV tournaments.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Only leading by 2 points after the games today.

 

[jaggy]

2000/1 odds in July before the season

 

[augustobt]

Well, it is/was the best chance for Arsenal in the past 10 years to win the league. And one thing is for sure: Marhez will not play 16-17 with Leicester.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Come on you Spurs.

 

[Feña14]

They won't win it, would be great if they did, but it's not going to happen. March onwards is a real mental slog, they have no idea what they're in for.

As for greatest upset? If they had won it 8 years ago when Chelsea and Man Utd (Liverpool under Benitez, to an extent) were at their peak and dominating the latter stages of the Champions League? Hell yeah that would one of the greatest upsets of all time. The way City and Chelsea (who aren't actually that great anyway) have played this year? It would be a nice story, but nothing more. Just my take.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

They won't win it, would be great if they did, but it's not going to happen. March onwards is a real mental slog, they have no idea what they're in for.

As for greatest upset? If they had won it 8 years ago when Chelsea and Man Utd (Liverpool under Benitez, to an extent) were at their peak and dominating the latter stages of the Champions League? Hell yeah that would one of the greatest upsets of all time. The way City and Chelsea (who aren't actually that great anyway) have played this year? It would be a nice story, but nothing more. Just my take.

Such high standards. If all the other teams are goating and Leicester got into this position then it would be more amazing. Still, look at the pre season odds. 2000/1? outsiders winning is more than a nice story for me. Chelsea for the title btw.

Agree with the rest of your post. Today, losing the match so late, that was just the start of things turning. I'm now expecting Norwich to beat them.

 

[Feña14]

Such high standards. If all the other teams are goating and Leicester got into this position then it would be more amazing. Still, look at the pre season odds. 2000/1? outsiders winning is more than a nice story for me. Chelsea for the title btw.

Agree with the rest of your post. Today, losing the match so late, that was just the start of things turning. I'm now expecting Norwich to beat them.

Yeah it's just a real tough ask for a team who's never been there before, especially in today's Premier League where there's not a lot of difference between the sides. Stoke can spend £20 Million on a player in January, West Ham are paying Payet huge sums etc.. There's just no easy game out there. When there's pressure at the business end of the season and it's all new to the Leicester players? It's too big of an ask imo.

I think a lot of why Chelsea were so bad at the start of this season was the huge mental and physical effort it took to win last year. From March onwards every game was a full on war, they looked burnt out. But yeah, I'd love Leicester to win as it would be an incredible story, my money would be on City when it comes to the crunch time though (assuming there's no Pellegrini leaving hangover where the players aren't invested as much).

 

[Chicharito]

The thing is that is that they where bottom this time last year and were one of the favourites to be relegated. http://gu.com/p/4b887/stw

They won't win it, would be great if they did, but it's not going to happen. March onwards is a real mental slog, they have no idea what they're in for.

As for greatest upset? If they had won it 8 years ago when Chelsea and Man Utd (Liverpool under Benitez, to an extent) were at their peak and dominating the latter stages of the Champions League? Hell yeah that would one of the greatest upsets of all time. The way City and Chelsea (who aren't actually that great anyway) have played this year? It would be a nice story, but nothing more. Just my take.

Spurs winning the league would be less special for the reasons listed, ie open year etc. But Leicester City, beyond comprehension. Agree they probably won't win it. But if they get top 4, it will be the greatest feat in PL history, providing Spurs don't win it.

It would depend on your concept of upset. Leicester has quite a good team with Mahrez playing great and Vardy clearly playing out of his abilities thus, they're leading mostly because of Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea's incapacity (and Liverpool ridiculous defense side). I'd say it's a big surprise, but nothing compares to the 2004, specially for football:

- Once Caldas defeating São Paulo (with a goal in the 90th minute of the return leg) and Boca Juniors (in a penalty shootout, right in La Bobonera) back to back to win the Copa Libertadores da America;
- Latvia qualified into the UEFA Euro 2004 after knocking Turkey (3rd place in the last world cup) out in the playoffs;
- Greece winning the Euro knocking Czech Republic (best team of the competition so far) on the semi-finals with the Silver Goal. Defeated Portugal (home team) in the Final;
- Deportivo La Coruña knocking Milan out in the quarters of the Champions League (first Match was 4-1 Milan);
- The Champions League final by itself: Monaco vs Porto.

so... no, it won't be the biggest upset in the history of the sport.

2004 is a year. You are listing different events which happened in a calendar year. But the purpose of this thread is for discussion, and you have brought up some events, which is what I wanted, so thanks.

We can talk about how weak the top teams are but in 2011 Utd won the league with 80 points, 72 would have been enough. Leicester are on track for 70 odd points. Spurs (far more wealthy) have accumulated 70+ points once in PL history.

Have any non wealthy clubs got 70 plus points before? Villa (much higher up the wage table at that time) got 64 once.

 

[vanioMan]

 

[augustobt]

2004 is a year. You are listing different events which happened in a calendar year. But the purpose of this thread is for discussion, and you have brought up some events, which is what I wanted, so thanks.

We can talk about how weak the top teams are but in 2011 Utd won the league with 80 points, 72 would have been enough. Leicester are on track for 70 odd points. Spurs (far more wealthy) have accumulated 70+ points once in PL history.

Have any non wealthy clubs got 70 plus points before? Villa (much higher up the wage table at that time) got 64 once.

Dude, the point is: If Leicester City wins the EPL, it won't be the biggest upset in the history of the sport, hahahah. It's gonna be a nice story to tell in a bar table, but that's it.

 

[TheMuzziah]

They won't win it, would be great if they did, but it's not going to happen. March onwards is a real mental slog, they have no idea what they're in for..

We've been saying that for ages, and they are still top of the league. When Liverpool beat them at Anfield (their only 2nd loss, on Boxing Day) I excepted them to start falling out of top4-5, they didn't. Same when they played out some goalless draws, when Vardy couldn't score to save his life. My point is that although losing in that fashion to Arsenal is tough to take and I bet they are all devastated, you cannot count them out after what they've shown. I'm not saying they'll definitely go on to win it but for me they've done enough to still be considered serious title contenders.

PS. Also lets not forget that Leicester may have a "thin" squad but they are only competing in the league, whereas Spurs, City & Arsenal have the Cups, Europe etc etc.

It would depend on your concept of upset. Leicester has quite a good team with Mahrez playing great and Vardy clearly playing out of his abilities thus, they're leading mostly because of Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea's incapacity (and Liverpool ridiculous defense side). I'd say it's a big surprise, but nothing compares to the 2004, specially for football:

- Once Caldas defeating São Paulo (with a goal in the 90th minute of the return leg) and Boca Juniors (in a penalty shootout, right in La Bobonera) back to back to win the Copa Libertadores da America;
- Latvia qualified into the UEFA Euro 2004 after knocking Turkey (3rd place in the last world cup) out in the playoffs;
- Greece winning the Euro knocking Czech Republic (best team of the competition so far) on the semi-finals with the Silver Goal. Defeated Portugal (home team) in the Final;
- Deportivo La Coruña knocking Milan out in the quarters of the Champions League (first Match was 4-1 Milan);
- The Champions League final by itself: Monaco vs Porto.

so... no, it won't be the biggest upset in the history of the sport.

You're talking about a whole year there. One by one only Greece 2004 comes close to Leicester winning the league. I won't comment on the playoffs bit & the quarters of the CL, it's borderline ridiculous to suggest that a tie of 2 legs is more impressive then winning the most difficult league after 38 games.

 

[Feña14]

We've been saying that for ages, and they are still top of the league. When Liverpool beat them at Anfield (their only 2nd loss, on Boxing Day) I excepted them to start falling out of top4-5, they didn't. Same when they played out some goalless draws, when Vardy couldn't score to save his life. My point is that although losing in that fashion to Arsenal is tough to take and I bet they are all devastated, you cannot count them out after what they've shown. I'm not saying they'll definitely go on to win it but for me they've done enough to still be considered serious title contenders.

PS. Also lets not forget that Leicester may have a "thin" squad but they are only competing in the league, whereas Spurs, City & Arsenal have the Cups, Europe etc etc.

They're still there yes, but they haven't reached the point where things get really tough yet. Man Utd were famous for being there or there abouts, then pushing on in March when the big boys make their move. The last 10 games when it gets real are brutal, Leicester have quality, but how will they fare when it becomes a mental game? l remember last year when Chelsea were smashing everyone all year, they were destroying Swansea 5-0 this time last year.. then the last 10-15 games were a real grind and mental slog. They didn't win one game by more than 1 goal down the stretch, lots of 1-0's, draws, a couple of 3-2's, hanging on for dear life at the end of games etc.. Teams near the bottom are in a fight for survival, rivals at the top need points for a top 4 finish.. The stakes are raised past anything the players have faced before.

As l say, i'd love Leicester to do it, they have the quality of players.. the missing ingredient of been there, done that is what will have them fall short. Coule be wrong (hope l am!), but that's the way l see it going.

 

[jmnk]

Dude, the point is: If Leicester City wins the EPL, it won't be the biggest upset in the history of the sport, hahahah. It's gonna be a nice story to tell in a bar table, but that's it.

well, according to this http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/sto...ome-biggest-long-shot-champion-sports-history if Leicester does win the EPL it will be the biggest underdog ever beating the odds. At least according to the documented sports odds. They were 5000-1 shot.

 

[augustobt]

You're talking about a whole year there. One by one only Greece 2004 comes close to Leicester winning the league. I won't comment on the playoffs bit & the quarters of the CL, it's borderline ridiculous to suggest that a tie of 2 legs is more impressive then winning the most difficult league after 38 games.

well, according to this http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/sto...ome-biggest-long-shot-champion-sports-history if Leicester does win the EPL it will be the biggest underdog ever beating the odds. At least according to the documented sports odds. They were 5000-1 shot.

Man, like I've said, you have to redefine your concept of "upset". Upset are usually in a single match, or a couple of them, not in 25 out of 38. Leagues are all about consistency.

 

[Chicharito]

Some context to what Leicester were doing last year.

Dude, the point is: If Leicester City wins the EPL, it won't be the biggest upset in the history of the sport, hahahah. It's gonna be a nice story to tell in a bar table, but that's it.

''Hey dad, tell me about that time Leicester won the league''
''Well son, it all started when Nigel Pearson's son racially abuse a Thai prostitute during a sex orgy.''

What is the greatest shock in cricket history?

Sri Lanka winning the 96 World Cup?

 

[chrischris]

Olympic Gold 1980 Lake Placid Team USA cant be beaten by Leicester taking the PL.
A clown winning an election would maybe.

 

[Gizo]

It would be one of the biggest upsets and fairytale stories in sporting history that's for sure:

- The odds of them winning the title at the start of the season were 5000/1 with several bookmakers.
- The Premier League has generally been incredibly uncompetitive during the big money modern day era. In the past 20 years from 1996-2015, only 4 different clubs have won the title (Man Utd - 11, Chelsea - 4, Arsenal - 3 and Man City 2), and only 7 different clubs have even finished in the top 3 (Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Newcastle and Leeds). That is a pathetic lack of parity. Leicester winning the title, and even qualifying the Champions League which is pretty much certain now, would literally have come out of nowhere, and break all modern day trends and patterns.
- Many people tipped them to get relegated at the start of the season, with odds of 3/1 that they would go down after they sacking Pearson during the summer.
- They only have the 17th highest wage bill out of the 20 teams in the league, and their local rivals Derby in the Championship spent almost the same amount on transfers this summer as they did.
- Ranieri was sacked from his last job as Greece manager, after losing at home to the Faroe Islands. He has never won a league title as a manager. The only major trophies he has won were the Coppa Italia with Fiorentina and Copa Del Rey with Valencia, way back in the 90s.
- They were rock bottom of the Premier League in early April 2015, with about 7 games left of the 2014/2015 season. Their transformation from that position to topping the table two thirds of the way down the line in the current season, is nothing short of incredible.
- They have never won the league title in their entire history, and the last time they even finished 4th was 53 years ago in 1963.

 

[Wynter]

Biggest upset I can think of in Football History was the 1954 WC Final

Hungary had gone unbeaten for 5 years winning 31 matches, creamed Germany in the Group Stage 8-3 and somehow lost the final to Germany 3-2.

Western Sydney Wanderers winning the ACL is another surprise, considering the millions Guangzhou, Hilal SK and other teams have compared to the A-League Salary Cap, an Aussie team winning the ACL was almost never anticipated

 

[augustobt]

Well, today we just had a major upset in Copa Libertadores.

São Paulo, a three time champion, lost to The Strongest in Pacaembu. The last time The Strongest won an away match in Libertadores was in 1982, 48 away matches without a victory (the biggest draught on Copa Libertadores), 20 draws and 28 losses, if I'm correct. It was just the first group match and it practically ruined Sao Paulo's chances in the group, hahahahah

 

[Knife]

It would be a cosmic upset. I have promissed to become a Leicester fan if they pull this off...

 

[robbo1970]

It would certainly be considered the biggest upset in recent years.

Partly because of the fact it's Leicester and they have no real history of success in the top flight and also because of the great escape they went through last season, just to stay up.

It's a bit similar to Derby in the 71/72 season, where they eclipsed very strong sides like Leeds, Man City and Liverpool. But like the Derby side of that era, Leicester have some good players that have just played at their full potential all season.

It's certainly up there with Greece in 2004, Sunderland beating Leeds in the 1973 FA Cup, Aston Villa in the European Cup in 1982, you could also say that Italy in 1982 was a bit of an upset when you look at the West German, Brazilian and Argentinian teams they beat to win the WC.

Could you consider Murray beating Federer at the 2012 Olympics in straight sets an upset, possibly.

The biggest upset has to be the Balboa v Creed re-match in 1979 though......who'd have guessed that outcome!!!

 

[bezs]

Would love to see them win it, still remember the likes of Kasey Keller, Muzzy Izzet, Emile Heskey and Neil Lennon doing well for them in the late 90's/early 2000's.

And Ade Akinbiyi definitely would be proud. haha

 

[Man of steel]

I think its pretty much certain that they can secure themselves a champion's league spot. And depending on how they do in the champions league and next season will show if they can consistently be a top top team. Going deep in club competitions will add them huge revenue.

 

[Russeljones]

Greece winning the Euro would still rank above, I reckon.

 

[Chicharito]

Leicester draw 2-2 at WBA on Tuesday. The wheels are coming off they say. Wednesday night, Arsenal, Spurs and City all lose. Leicester increased their lead.

10 games to go.

It still looks a herculean task. Every point will have to be hard earned. Can the impossible happen??


Leicester P28 P 57
Tottenham P28 P 54
Arsenal P28 P 51
Man City P27 P47

Greece winning the Euro would still rank above, I reckon.

If the Euros had of been a 16 man league, playing each team home and away would Greece have won it?

 

[Ciaron]

It would be up there with Japan beating South Africa in the Rugby World Cup last year.

 

[sarmpas]

Who'd have thought Spurs and Gunners would both c-ock up last night. The Special One's jibe about Arsenal is looking prophetic ATM.

Leicester fans will love it if Arsenal beat Tottenham on Saturday. Leicester could be 6 points ahead come Saturday evening.

 

[Russeljones]

Gulf between Greece and the other contenders is larger than between Leicester and the title favourites, it can be argued.

 

[Mac33]

Dundee.United got to the semi-finals of the old European Cup now called Champions League around 30 years ago.

They led Roma 2-0 after the first leg and lost the second leg 3-0.

Never happen now with all the big money taking their best players away.

 

[stringertom]

Soft schedule through April makes the improbable very possible...@Southampton and @West Ham easily the toughest of the lot.

 

[Alex78]

Leicester winning the PL would be absolutely mind-blowing. Every team can run hot here and there, but staying hot over an entire season is what is so remarkable with the kind of personnel Leicester features in comparison to the big money teams.
If I were to project this feat onto tennis, it would be like Tomic winning the Australian Open at the beginning of the year and then finishing the season as year-end No. 1. Not very likely, one might say...

 

[Gonzo_style]

@TheF1Bob is from Leicester, right? Damn, can we get him back?

 

[jmnk]

I wonder how the players on other teams feel about this whole story. Like in few weeks, when Leicester plays a team that is neither in danger of relegation, nor has a chance for any top-6 finish, would they perhaps not try 110% to give Leicester a chance? Like to just stick it to the Arsenal/MU/MC/Chelsea and have some other team win the PL? Or would they try even harder as in - if we are not winning LP we are not going to let some Cinderella team win it either?

 

[Feña14]

I wonder how the players on other teams feel about this whole story. Like in few weeks, when Leicester plays a team that is neither in danger of relegation, nor has a chance for any top-6 finish, would they perhaps not try 110% to give Leicester a chance? Like to just stick it to the Arsenal/MU/MC/Chelsea and have some other team win the PL? Or would they try even harder as in - if we are not winning LP we are not going to let some Cinderella team win it either?

I think with the money involved these days, every team wants to finish as high as possible. Just one place higher means mega prize money for the club, bonuses for the players, something they can use to negotiate when contracts are being talked about etc..

City have been my pick all year, with them faltering though? I'm starting to believe in Leicester a bit. Arsenal usually have a great end to the season (usually they're so far behind when they make their run it doesn't come to anything). They're close this time though so you never know, or maybe it's the lack of pressure in previous years that's lead to strong finishes?

Lots to find out still, should be entertaining.

 

[stringertom]

I do not want it to come down to the final game for Leicester to clinch but it would be the cherry on the top for Claudio to beat Chelsea with the title on the line and then tell that meddling arsehole owner where to shove it.

 

[stringertom]

The draw in London leaves the Cinderella side a very good shot at being five clear at day's end.

 

[jmnk]

The draw in London leaves the Cinderella side a very good shot at being five clear at day's end.

Yap, that 2:2 arsenal: totenham draw was the perfect result for Leicester. Now they need to win their own game. Time to find the stream to watch it...

 

[jmnk]

what a goal by Leicester!

 

[ScentOfDefeat]

I'm officially and unashamedly joining the bandwagon.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Sweet. Almost had another there.