If Nadal gets to within two Grand Slams of Federer, will he inevitably overtake him?

This Open could be a big tournament, if Rafa manages to win, and he's got a great chance of going deep with the draw he's had it'll be the first time ever he's within two grand slams of Roger.

The way i see it, if it happens is one of two things:

1) Roger finds early 2017 form and wins another couple of Grand Slams
2) Rafa senses how close he is and pushes on and overtakes him

I don't see Novak catching up either, and I think the five years Nadal has on Federer is massive, and there's now an almost certain chance that we'll still see Nadal playing after Federer hangs up his racquets.

What do you think?
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
Taking that logic, you could claim Fed needs at least 9 slams more than Sampras to overtake him, since Sampras earned his slams when there was true grass in Wimbledon and fast hardcourts, and not this modern travesty the ITF cooked to allow Fed to reach his overinflated slam tally.
While I agree, the slowness of grass is overrated. Its still much faster than HC tennis.
 

MeatTornado

Legend
Maybe I'm just pessimistic because of their respective forms in 2018, but it's already feeling inevitable.

Novak will have to really regain his 2015-16 dominance in order to stop Rafa. Right now, Rafa's too much of a threat at all 4 majors, and Roger isn't.
 

TMF

Talk Tennis Guru
What if Federer wins another slam, will the slam race be over?
What if Nole wins 2 more slams, will he catch Nadal slam count?
What if Zverev start winning slams now, will he catch Sampras slam count?

Pointless to discuss until it actually happened.
 

Enceladus

Hall of Fame
What is remarkable is that since the first GS title gained on FO 2005, Nadal has never managed to break the barrier of 3 GS titles on Federer. He was close enough to do so in several matches, but he always lost:
2014 AO - then score GS titles between Federer and Nadal was 17-13, but Nadal could reduce the score to 17-14 on 2014 and then the FO at 17-15, but in the finals he suffered a back injury and lost the final with Wawrinka in great form.
2017 AO - score 17-14, after winning the title for 2014 FO Nadal did not win the GS tournament until 2017 FO. But he could win 2017 AO in the fifth set led over Federer 3:1, but the decisive set lost 3:6, Fedex rebounded to 18-14.
2018 WCh - score 20-17, Nadal advanced to SF, where he fought a five-sets battle with Djokovic. He had 5 BPs in the fifth set, but none of them converted and the match lost. Anderson waited for the finals and lost all the previous duels with Nadal.
 
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Enceladus

Hall of Fame
What if Federer wins another slam, will the slam race be over?
What if Nole wins 2 more slams, will he catch Nadal slam count?
What if Zverev start winning slams now, will he catch Sampras slam count?

Pointless to discuss until it actually happened.
But it is being discussed because it is fun.
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
The odds increase, but I still don’t think he gets it done.

I think Fed fans are hand-wringing too much while Nadal fans are prematurely licking their chops.

Great form or not, Nadal has still only won 3 HC tournaments in the past 4.5 years. Nothing is a given, and I think he will lose before the final.
 

FHtennisman

Professional
The odds increase, but I still don’t think he gets it done.

I think Fed fans are hand-wringing too much while Nadal fans are prematurely licking their chops.

Great form or not, Nadal has still only won 3 HC tournaments in the past 4.5 years. Nothing is a given, and I think he will lose before the final.
Don't see that happening unfortunately, just seems like Rafa has got a really cushy draw, at least until the semis where he'd face Delpo and even Delpo has eventually fallen to Rafa every single time so I don't see him beating him too.

Would have to be a surprise loss a la Novak in AO 2017 or Fed in Wimby 2018.
 

WhiskeyEE

Legend
Novak is the betting favourite for USO and, if he wins, he will be as close to Nadal as Nadal is to Federer. With 5 WTFs and a bunch of other resume points against him.
 

Tiki-Taka

Hall of Fame
For all we know, both of them could stay at their current Grand Slam tallies. Nothing is a given especially at this point of their careers. In response to how many more Slams Nadal would "need" to truly overtake Federer, I will just say that if by some miracle Nadal does end up with the record, even by one Slam, don't be sensitive if that fact is pointed out regularly, because that's what is heard every day now about Federer.
 
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