If Novak wins USO 2014, then he is better than Rafa on 3 majors

[Djokovic2011]

Yeah right, And nadal has 5 wimbledon finals vs 3 of rafa... and the 2011-2014 has been much weaker than 2006-2011 when it comes to grasscourts..

Nole is just better in plexicushion thats why he started winning in 2011 over there. If the surface would remain as rebound ace Nole would have only half of the slams at the aussie..

If Channing Tatum were in my bed right now I'd be the happiest man alive. Sadly life doesn't work that way.

 

[cjs]

Isn't it an irony that a 14 major winner is still inferior to his contemporaries on 3 of 4 surfaces in terms of performance ?

Thoughts ?

There are only 3 surfaces. Differences between types of hard court are minimal.

 

[eldanger25]

There are only 3 surfaces. Differences between types of hard court are minimal.

Agreed - fourth surface was carpet, if anything.

 

[SpicyCurry1990]

I would've preferred a Novak-Nadal match (even though I found their 2012 AO final interminable - I think both guys, and the ATP, have improved time-wise since then). Rather than repeat myself, I'll just echo Pete Sampras here, after his and Agassi's career-altering 1995 US Open final:

"It is always a little bit different when I can beat Andre," Sampras said. "We're one and two in the world, both American, and to beat him makes me feel a little better than if I had beaten somebody else."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/sports/longterm/memories/1995/95ten3.htm

The "both American" part is the only difference here, and I don't find it to meaningfully change the point I'm trying to make.

As a fan of Nole I would have preferred to see him there too, especially on the one slam court he has never lost to Nadal =P. But my point is you can't just summarily dismiss other players because they aren't all time greats. This is professional sports and we are talking about top 5 players. People are capable of producing levels on occasion that are above even the peak forms of the peak players (Safin AO 05 over Fed for example).

Your point is well taken, its more meaningful to beat the #1/#2 for a title when you are #1/#2 rather than someone else. Normally I agree say in the case of the #1/#2 crashing and burning in an early round match by playing poorly. But when #2 Nole is losing 9-7 in the 5th playing at the levels he was at to win the 2 years before, I lose you.

I hope you guys get him back, would be an epic return. You do agree he got slammed even after the first "lockout" title with the Heat, largely because he was seen as a guy who racked up the stats in the regular season and early playoff rounds, but shrunk during the ECF and NBA finals? Some of that was unfair, but some of it wasn't - we are after all trying to capture "greatness," which should be a difficult standard to meet if it isn't going to be watered down.

I think the only fair criticisms were vs the Celtics 2010 series and the 2011 Mavs Finals Series. He largely produced sub-par in those series. But honestly no way we were winning over the Lakers in 2010 with the supporting cast we had. If he comes back now, we actually have a crew where we can legit contend with Wiggins/Irving and some shooters.

This is a US Open-specific conversation - he's obviously not generally unclutch on the tour. And in fact, it's not even a US Open-specific comment I'm making - it's a US Open championship match observation.

Novak is endearingly high strung, somebody who can spiral upward with good mental energy and spiral downward with toxic mental energy. I think that makes the last championship Sunday each season, in front of a tough NYC crowd, a rocky affair for him sometimes - particularly against Nadal - who, along with Sampras, is the toughest-minded competitor I've seen.

So let me get this straight, he was mentally tough to come from 2 match points down in 2010 to beat Fed in 5 sets in the semi, but then choked the final?

How about in 2011 doing the same vs Fed AGAIN in the SF and then vs Nadal in the final, dropping a breadstick in the 4th after losing a tough tiebreaker in the 3rd?

I think you are trying too hard to find something that isn't there. Nadal simply played better last year. That's all there is to it.

If he'd won in 2012 against another high strung fellow, this "title bout nerves" argument would be nonsensical - there's no shame in losing 5 set finals to Nadal and Nadal alone. Just like there was no shame in losing a tired match to a slam-tough Murray at SW19 last year. I just don't understand how he got himself into that 2 set hole against AM - and then let him off the hook in the fifth set - even with the fatigue, the wind, etc. He was 25 years old, the fittest player on tour, etc. I just don't see 25 year old Nadal or Federer losing that match, much as I like Murray (whose ceiling is absolutely #1 in the world if he can keep it together).

How do you not understand that?

An offensive baseliner is playing on a neutral court against a counter puncher. The offensive baseliner's strategy is to rally from the back of the court using precise shot placement to set up openings and angles to hit winners.

The counter puncher's strategy is to use high percentage plays to the center of the court, throw in mix-ups to confuse and push the baseliner off balance and force errors.

Which of these strategies when you have the best player in the world at each executing them, do you think is more amenable to producing better results in heavy winds?

It took Nole the first two sets to find his range and figure out what he could do in the wind and toss in more counter punching in his game and not spray errors. Once he figured it out he dominated Murray in sets 3 and 4. By set 5 he was on set 8 in 24 hours having had played Ferrer in the SF the day before due to weather. You don't think 8 sets of world class tennis in 24 hours vs two elite counter punching grinders on a neutral, windy, non winner friendly court could tire out even the most fittest of individuals?

Its rather asinine to overlook all of these points as you are doing and ascribe his loss to "title bout nerves" as you are attempting to do.

 

[eldanger25]

As a fan of Nole I would have preferred to see him there too, especially on the one slam court he has never lost to Nadal =P. But my point is you can't just summarily dismiss other players because they aren't all time greats. This is professional sports and we are talking about top 5 players. People are capable of producing levels on occasion that are above even the peak forms of the peak players (Safin AO 05 over Fed for example).

Your point is well taken, its more meaningful to beat the #1/#2 for a title when you are #1/#2 rather than someone else. Normally I agree say in the case of the #1/#2 crashing and burning in an early round match by playing poorly. But when #2 Nole is losing 9-7 in the 5th playing at the levels he was at to win the 2 years before, I lose you.



I think the only fair criticisms were vs the Celtics 2010 series and the 2011 Mavs Finals Series. He largely produced sub-par in those series. But honestly no way we were winning over the Lakers in 2010 with the supporting cast we had. If he comes back now, we actually have a crew where we can legit contend with Wiggins/Irving and some shooters.

So let me get this straight, he was mentally tough to come from 2 match points down in 2010 to beat Fed in 5 sets in the semi, but then choked the final?

How about in 2011 doing the same vs Fed AGAIN in the SF and then vs Nadal in the final, dropping a breadstick in the 4th after losing a tough tiebreaker in the 3rd?

I think you are trying too hard to find something that isn't there. Nadal simply played better last year. That's all there is to it.

How do you not understand that?

An offensive baseliner is playing on a neutral court against a counter puncher. The offensive baseliner's strategy is to rally from the back of the court using precise shot placement to set up openings and angles to hit winners.

The counter puncher's strategy is to use high percentage plays to the center of the court, throw in mix-ups to confuse and push the baseliner off balance and force errors.

Which of these strategies when you have the best player in the world at each executing them, do you think is more amenable to producing better results in heavy winds?

It took Nole the first two sets to find his range and figure out what he could do in the wind and toss in more counter punching in his game and not spray errors. Once he figured it out he dominated Murray in sets 3 and 4. By set 5 he was on set 8 in 24 hours having had played Ferrer in the SF the day before due to weather. You don't think 8 sets of world class tennis in 24 hours vs two elite counter punching grinders on a neutral, windy, non winner friendly court could tire out even the most fittest of individuals?

Its rather asinine to overlook all of these points as you are doing and ascribe his loss to "title bout nerves" as you are attempting to do.

It's wishful thinking for you to summarily dismiss title bout nerves as a concept when Novak himself admitted to them in the wake of this past Sunday. We'll see whether he can draw confidence from Wimbledon if he makes another final in New York this summer - I suspect he will, but it's silly not to acknowledge that he'd likely have memories of 2010-13 if he's in a tight match that last day, particularly against Nadal or Murray.

I certainly think it's one reason he brought Boris Becker on despite cruising along last fall with Vajda.

You're writing a revisionist narrative about the 2012 final. As a general comment, I certainly don't think Murray's a counter-puncher per se - that his game includes greater variety and less reliance on rhythm/patterns than Novak's does not render him a mere pace absorber - but that's neither here nor there. Novak came out flat in that match, and I didn't notice fatigue but rather a timidity - a lack of aggression - in the last set against a high strung rival who was notoriously major-free at the time.

After AO 2012, Novak had 5 majors and was 5-2 in major finals. He's a mirror image 2-5 since then (1-6 if you want to exclude his signature major and call RG 2013 the de facto final). In particular, he's been dealt multiple title round failures in Paris and New York - Paris is understandable, since he's basically playing an away game against Nadal. New York is less explicable - though I agree he was simply outplayed through three sets in 2013 (he just shut down in the fourth).

We're sort of dancing on the head of a pin here to begin with, so I'll just say this: these streaks take on lives of their own, which is partly why I highlight the 2012 final (I doubt Novak hearkens back to 2007 much). If he wins that one - or loses in a less frustrating fashion - I'd not be arguing any of this.

To get back to the original topic, I'd also be fine with calling his career in NY greater than Rafa's if that 2012 result was flipped. Right now, he's sort of the 1990s Atlanta Braves - he got one trophy in NY, but is more often remembered as the guy in the background at the end of someone else's title run.

Let me ask you this (brought it up in an earlier post) - a sort of flipside to the topic: how many more US Open finals in a row would Novak have to lose for you to believe he has a final Sunday mental block going there? If he lost 3x more in a row - an 18-3 record that helped his w/p overall at the tourney, and additional final round appearances that factor into your system of evaluating Open Era greats - in what way would you acknowledge his title bout difficulties, if at all?

Anyway, he'll probably win there in the next 1-2 years and render all my bloviating moot. Fun way to pass the quieter weeks in July I suppose.

 

[SpicyCurry1990]

It's wishful thinking for you to summarily dismiss title bout nerves as a concept when Novak himself admitted to them in the wake of this past Sunday. We'll see whether he can draw confidence from Wimbledon if he makes another final in New York this summer - I suspect he will, but it's silly not to acknowledge that he'd likely have memories of 2010-13 if he's in a tight match that last day, particularly against Nadal or Murray.

I certainly think it's one reason he brought Boris Becker on despite cruising along last fall with Vajda.

You're writing a revisionist narrative about the 2012 final. As a general comment, I certainly don't think Murray's a counter-puncher per se - that his game includes greater variety and less reliance on rhythm/patterns than Novak's does not render him a mere pace absorber - but that's neither here nor there. Novak came out flat in that match, and I didn't notice fatigue but rather a timidity - a lack of aggression - in the last set against a high strung rival who was notoriously major-free at the time.

After AO 2012, Novak had 5 majors and was 5-2 in major finals. He's a mirror image 2-5 since then (1-6 if you want to exclude his signature major and call RG 2013 the de facto final). In particular, he's been dealt multiple title round failures in Paris and New York - Paris is understandable, since he's basically playing an away game against Nadal. New York is less explicable - though I agree he was simply outplayed through three sets in 2013 (he just shut down in the fourth).

We're sort of dancing on the head of a pin here to begin with, so I'll just say this: these streaks take on lives of their own, which is partly why I highlight the 2012 final (I doubt Novak hearkens back to 2007 much). If he wins that one - or loses in a less frustrating fashion - I'd not be arguing any of this.

To get back to the original topic, I'd also be fine with calling his career in NY greater than Rafa's if that 2012 result was flipped. Right now, he's sort of the 1990s Atlanta Braves - he got one trophy in NY, but is more often remembered as the guy in the background at the end of someone else's title run.

Let me ask you this (brought it up in an earlier post) - a sort of flipside to the topic: how many more US Open finals in a row would Novak have to lose for you to believe he has a final Sunday mental block going there? If he lost 3x more in a row - an 18-3 record that helped his w/p overall at the tourney, and additional final round appearances that factor into your system of evaluating Open Era greats - in what way would you acknowledge his title bout difficulties, if at all?

Anyway, he'll probably win there in the next 1-2 years and render all my bloviating moot. Fun way to pass the quieter weeks in July I suppose.

I don't care about the # of finals loses to acknowledge a mental block. It depends on the circumstances. If Djok is up 2 sets to 1 and 5-2 in the 4th set all 3 times and loses them all in 5 set tiebreakers, sure I would acknowledge it. But if he is getting outplayed from the start and fighting back all match only to lose each time in 4 or 5 sets, that goes back to my point of him consistently making finals not at his best. So far I have not seen him mentally be weak except arguably the 4th set vs Nadal, but I maintain he loses that match regardless just based on his level not being at its peak on that day while Nadal's was.

Did you evaluate Fed has having a "Final Sunday mental block" at RG when he is 1-4 there? Or do you attribute it to the higher levels of Nadal?

 

[rocketassist]

2-3 at Wimbledon is still better than 2-1, tbh.

 

[AssaultJoker]

Agree with OP, and Djokovic is way better at WTF.