If Rafa wins today it will be one of the Greatest Grand Slam Wins of All time..

[srinrajesh]

Some of the reasons

1) RAFA will be playing 4th match in 5 days and having played during 5 days out of last 6 including 4 straight days from rain affected Wednesday to Saturday. On the other hand Djoker has played his 4 matches over 8 days having full rest after every match.

2) Rafa is playing the US open after having his worst lead up ever : Match Record of 2-2 Post Wimbledon injury break..

3) Rafa is facing crisis in confidence after losing to Nole 5 matches in a row.. His worst match up is Djoker.The only player in history to beat Nadal 5 times in a row. Hope it ends at 5 so RAFA can say "Nobody beats Rafa 6 times n a row " a la Vitas Gerulaitis “Nobody beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row! against Connors. He has taken only 1 set in last 10 sets played between two.

4) Rafa is playing the GS on his worst surface.

5) Djoker has had one of the best years on tour in Open Era coming into US open final with a 63-2 record. Wonder whether only Johnny Mac was better or equal to this. He's playing supremely confident after beating Fed in semifinal.

The odds may be against Rafa but hope he comes through

 

[srinrajesh]

Forgot to mention Djoker leads 9-5 in hard courts and has won 8 of last 10 matches too

 

[BULLZ1LLA]

(Nadal has won their 3 biggest hardcourt meetings - 2010 US Open final, 2008 Olympics, 2010 World Tour Finals)

 

[8PAQ]

Nadal lost only 1 set getting to the final. All his matches were relatively short. Novak's Q and S matches were much harder. Nadal has the advantage so OP's point #1 is completely invalid.

 

[mandy01]

Nope.
............

 

[zagor]

Nah, the fact that his opponent is carrying 2 injuries(toe and shoulder) and is fatigued(tough matches with Dolgo, Janko and Fed) nullifies all those reasons, in fact it would be somewhat embarrassing if Nadal didn't prevail against such a disadvantaged opponent.

 

[srinrajesh]

Yes . It would be.. certainly cant recall anyone overcoming such odds and playing on 5 of 6 last days

 

[ollinger]

A win by a guy who's won as many as he has and who happens to be the defending champion is not exactly history.

 

[tennis_pro]

(Nadal has won their 3 biggest hardcourt meetings - 2010 US Open final, 2008 Olympics, 2010 World Tour Finals)

A round robin match at the Masters Cup is bigger than a Miami or Indian Wells final?

Even 2008 Olympics is debatable, as it was a semi-final meeting worth around 480 points at the time (less than a ATP500 title). Any masters semi/final they played was a bigger match. Btw tennis shouldn't even be an Olympic sport as it is already very popular around the world and the main goal is to promote sports which are not so popular.

Agreed about the US Open final as it's the biggest, next to an AO final, match on a hard court possible.

 

[srinrajesh]

Nah, the fact that his opponent is carrying 2 injuries(toe and shoulder) and is fatigued(tough matches with Dolgo, Janko and Fed) nullifies all those reasons, in fact it would be somewhat embarrassing if Nadal didn't prevail against such a disadvantaged opponent.

Well i hope you know that Nadal has a congenital foot defect that was diagnosed in 2008 that cropped up in wimby this year again..
He is also suffering from blisters . took medical time out against Nalby

His BH is affected by the burn injury suffered 2 weeks back and is still bandaged.

 

[theroleoftheunderdog]

with respect to the OP, simply no

 

[BULLZ1LLA]

A round robin match at the Masters Cup is bigger than a Miami or Indian Wells final?

Even 2008 Olympics is debatable, as it was a semi-final meeting worth around 480 points at the time (less than a ATP500 title). Any masters semi/final they played was a bigger match. Btw tennis shouldn't even be an Olympic sport as it is already very popular around the world and the main goal is to promote sports which are not so popular.

Agreed about the US Open final as it's the biggest, next to an AO final, match on a hard court possible.

(Well, they never played at the Australian Open. So the biggest hardcourt events they've met at is the US Open and the Olympics. Djokovic actually cried on the court after Nadal beat him at the Olympics. Nobody cries at Masters events whereas)

 

[clayman2000]

Plus the people Nadal would have beaten:
Former world no 1, former champ Roddick
World no 4, 3 time HC slam finalist Murray
Former Finalist, 2 time AO champ, world no 1 Djokovic

 

[tennis_pro]

(Well, they never played at the Australian Open. So the biggest hardcourt events they've met at is the US Open and the Olympics. Djokovic actually cried on the court after Nadal beat him at the Olympics. Nobody cries at Masters events whereas)

Mecir winning in 1988, Rosset winning in 1992 or Massu winning in 2004 tells me how big this event is. BIGGER THAN WIMBLEDON
Sampras didn't even take part in the Olympics, yet he dominated grass courts and to some degree hard courts. We had finalists like Fish or Haas in the past.

 

[aphex]

Also, don't forget:

The Nadal is undefeated when he wins.

 

[BULLZ1LLA]

Mecir winning in 1988, Rosset winning in 1992 or Massu winning in 2004 tells me how big this event is. BIGGER THAN WIMBLEDON
Sampras didn't even take part in the Olympics, yet he dominated grass courts and to some degree hard courts. We had finalists like Fish or Haas in the past.

(How times change. Now it's Federer's holy grail in 2012. It's kind of like the Australian Open, which used to be worth nothing)

 

[srinrajesh]

A win by a guy who's won as many as he has and who happens to be the defending champion is not exactly history.

No .. My point is these are one of the toughest circumstances for anyone trying to win a slam. Not just someone losing the most sets over the course of a fortnight. Facing a bad match up coming in losing 5 straight matches against opponent.
Poor lead up of 2-2 so on

Rafa's toughest was probably 2009 AO (fatigued after saturday early morning finish Vs Verdasco), 2011 FO (tough draw and different balls)

Can recall Goran in Wimby 2001 as a wild card .. but in a way he was a big surprise and not one of the favourites. Rafa was probably still one of the top Favourites after djoker before the tournament began.

 

[srinrajesh]

(Well, they never played at the Australian Open. So the biggest hardcourt events they've met at is the US Open and the Olympics. Djokovic actually cried on the court after Nadal beat him at the Olympics. Nobody cries at Masters events whereas)

Agree .. Olympics is as important as a GS title in prestige now and much more difficult to win. Only 2 / 3 real chances over a career. Playing and winning for your country gives you far more motivation and satisfaction at times. Davis cup too is another important tournament

 

[baseliner]

I give Nadal slightly more chance against Djoker than I gave Stosur against Williams. That's why they play the matches

 

[cknobman]

Plus the people Nadal would have beaten:
Former world no 1, former champ Roddick

Your joking about using that stat as a reason Nadal's USO victory would be great, right????

Andy Roddick is in his worst form in over a DECADE.

If anything Nadal gets minus points for that round because it was practically his easiest match of the tournament!!

 

[srinrajesh]

If RAFA wins I would rank it among his best and among the greatest of all time because of the tough circumstances like what i had mentioned earlier - playing continuously, bad match up ...etc

Others that come to mind are some where they came from unknown to win including two of my favourites Becker in 85 Wimby, Guga Kuerten in 97 FO. Also Chang in 89 FO.
Goran i had mentioned earler in 2001 Wimby as a wild card ranked 125 beating Rafter(US open champion).

I thought Sampras also did the same after his coach collapsed during AO 95 and was diagnosed with brain cancer. But Sampras lost in the final to Agassi after beating courier in an emotional QTF in which he started crying..

 

[Bud]

Nadal is the underdog in this match. He's currently ranked 2nd (by quite a margin) and is less successful on HC versus Djok.

A win here under these circumstances would be one of the greatest in Nadal's career.. but not of all time, IMO.

 

[BULLZ1LLA]

Nadal is the underdog in this match. He's currently ranked 2nd (by quite a margin) and is less successful on HC versus Djok.

A win here under these circumstances would be one of the greatest in Nadal's career.. but not of all time, IMO.

(This year Nadal is far more successful on hardcourt vs Djokovic than on clay. Nadal won the 1st sets of Indian Wells and Miami, and lost Miami in a tie-breaker final set. I know Nadal is better on clay than on hardcourt, but vs Djokovic, Nadal is better on hardcourt, because the biggest improvement Djokovic made this year is endurance. The improved endurance benefits Djokovic in the long claycourt rallies. On hardcourts Nadal gets good reward for his serve and finishes points quicker which takes Djokovic's endurance out of the equation. If the US Open final plays out like Indian Wells and Miami, with Nadal winning the 1st set, then Nadal is in a great position)

 

[Clarky21]

He won't win so we don't have to worry about this supposedly being one of the best wins of his career.

 

[clayman2000]

Your joking about using that stat as a reason Nadal's USO victory would be great, right????

Andy Roddick is in his worst form in over a DECADE.

If anything Nadal gets minus points for that round because it was practically his easiest match of the tournament!!

Roddick has only won 6 games in a slam one other time..... 07 AO Semis when Federer played one of the matches of his life.

I dont care how bad Roddick is playing, when you serve like he does its insane he won 6 games in 3 sets

 

[tennis_pro]

(This year Nadal is far more successful on hardcourt vs Djokovic than on clay. Nadal won the 1st sets of Indian Wells and Miami, and lost Miami in a tie-breaker final set. I know Nadal is better on clay than on hardcourt, but vs Djokovic, Nadal is better on hardcourt, because the biggest improvement Djokovic made this year is endurance. The improved endurance benefits Djokovic in the long claycourt rallies. On hardcourts Nadal gets good reward for his serve and finishes points quicker which takes Djokovic's endurance out of the equation. If the US Open final plays out like Indian Wells and Miami, with Nadal winning the 1st set, then Nadal is in a great position)

What's up, Bullzilla? How about making a new thread about Nadal's chances to win another slam?

 

[BreakPoint]

(Nadal has won their 3 biggest hardcourt meetings - 2010 US Open final, 2008 Olympics, 2010 World Tour Finals)

That match doesn't count as Djokovic couldn't see without his contact lenses. Besides, that match was a round robin match and not the final.