If Serena loses the #1 ranking immediately after the 2016 U.S Open

[mattosgrant]

she and Graf would actually end up dead tied in most weeks at #1 at 186. Of course she could still hold the #1 ranking after the U.S Open and break that, or she might lose it before then and not hold it at all, but it would be pretty funny if they ended up dead tied for a particular record given that they are the main 2 discussed against each other as GOAT these days.

Examining the ranking points sooner I have to say Kerber looks like much more of a threat than Azarenka for the #1 ranking. Kerber is about 450 points over Serena in race points for this year, while Azarenka is virtually tied. However Azarenka like Serena earned virtually no points after the U.S Open last fall (one small tournament she went out early only), and lost earlier than Serena at the Open too. Given that Serena is clearly the better clay and grass court player she will probably be safe from her for awhile. However Kerber earned roughly 1200 points and roughly 1400 adding in the U.S Open. Add to that her lead in the points accumulated this year and Serena has to significantly outperform her from to the U.S Open to stay ahead of her in the rankings either going into the Open to atleast tie Graf's consecutive weeks at #1 record, or possibly after the Open.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Serena has no points to defend post USO. Thanks to her withdrawal post USO loss. So she has Wuhan, China and WTA finals for more points there.

May:
Kerber and Radwanska won't go far at the French so even if Serena loses in say the QF she'll still have like a 2000 point lead.

June/July:
Serena can play a premier tournament in June if she wants more points/does a bad job at defending her French points, Kerber has 2 premier titles to defend in coming months as well (from memory at least one is in June I think) and then we have Wimbledon where Aga has SF points and Serena with champion points but I'm sure she'll do a great job of defending her points there.

July/August:
Issue is Serena isn't playing Cincinatti in August where she's the defending champ (900 points I think). Her focus is more on the Olympics which annoyingly has no points this year. August could be crucial for numbers 2-4 to overtake. Kerber seems to be trying her hardest to get number 1 lately playing like 8 weeks straight now and she was even signed on for Nurnberg this week but thankfully withdrew.

This is all off the top of my head, I'll write a more detailed response after I've slept (12am here).

 

[mattosgrant]

I actually think if Serena is still ranked #1 after the U.S Open she is pretty safe. Atleast from Kerber, at that point Azarenka becomes the bigger threat as she too has almost no points to defend then. Until the U.S Open Kerber is the bigger threat by far for the reasons I explained. If Serena is still #1 after the U.S Open I think she can breathe more comfortably though.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

I'm not worried for Serena until around Wimbledon.

Just had a quick look and Kerber has a premier title in June. Aga has a premier final also.

Wimbledon you have Aga with SF points and Vika with QF points. Serena with 2000 but likely she won't lose early and she can always play a tournament in June as she has no points for the month.

July is when the schedule stuffs up but it works in Serenas favour. Stanford moves a few weeks back from August to July. Kerber won last year.
Serena usually plays that tournament but withdrew last year so if she plays she could gain points while Kerber has to defend 470. Then you've got Rogers Cup which Serena is playing I believe but is defending SFist points. Then the Olympics. Then Cincinatti which she's not playing.

If Serena wants to beat this record which I hope she does, she should play a premier tournament in June and Stanford in July. Additionally, if she loses early at the Olympics or feels fit, playing Cincinatti would help her get the record.

 

[mattosgrant]

I'm not worried for Serena until around Wimbledon.

Just had a quick look and Kerber has a premier title in June. Aga has a premier final also.

Wimbledon you have Aga with SF points and Vika with QF points. Serena with 2000 but likely she won't lose early and she can always play a tournament in June as she has no points for the month.

July is when the schedule stuffs up but it works in Serenas favour. Stanford moves a few weeks back from August to July. Kerber won last year.
Serena usually plays that tournament but withdrew last year so if she plays she could gain points while Kerber has to defend 470. Then you've got Rogers Cup which Serena is playing I believe but is defending SFist points. Then the Olympics. Then Cincinatti which she's not playing.

If Serena wants to beat this record which I hope she does, she should play a premier tournament in June and Stanford in July. Additionally, if she loses early at the Olympics or feels fit, playing Cincinatti would help her get the record.

Of course if she can do the French-Wimbledon double again she will probably be pretty safe regardless.

 

[Russeljones]

She might surrender her # 1 spot much earlier.

 

[helterskelter]

It's not all that likely that Serena will lose the #1 ranking at the US Open, though, because she lost in the semis last year. More likely that she loses it before then, if at all.

By the way, tis would be the record for most consecutive weeks as #1. Graf is still someway ahead for overall weeks as #1.

 

[mattosgrant]

It's not all that likely that Serena will lose the #1 ranking at the US Open, though, because she lost in the semis last year. More likely that she loses it before then, if at all.

By the way, tis would be the record for most consecutive weeks as #1. Graf is still someway ahead for overall weeks as #1.

Serena would actually have to end 2017 at #1 to get the most overall weeks at #1. If she still #1 after the Australian Open next year (having not lost the ranking anytime before then) she gets Navratilova at that point.

Seles's #1 ranking should have been frozen for 12 months after the stabbing in which case Graf would have the same or a few weeks less at #1 than Navratilova but whatever.

 

[Phoenix1983]

I do find it amazing that Serena might hold this record, given that she was very inconsistent for much of her career (brilliant for one tournament, couldn't be bothered for a year or so at times).

This just goes to show her new-found maturity and focus in her twilight years.

 

[mattosgrant]

I do find it amazing that Serena might hold this record, given that she was very inconsistent for much of her career (brilliant for one tournament, couldn't be bothered for a year or so at times).

This just goes to show her new-found maturity and focus in her twilight years.

The ranking system for the WTA also sucks. I do understand why Serena wasnt #1 some periods people considered her the best player, however calculations have shown under the 90s ranking system she would have spent more time at #1 than she did. In fact would probably already hold the overall weeks record.